看跌爱城房市的人们，你们凭什么。请给出理由

eree · 发表于 2006-7-12 15:34

原帖由 cgoca 于 2006-7-11 07:39 发表# @: x- G, Y# ^/ ^
anything's price is decided by supply and demand. it is true that a lot of people is coming into Alberta, so people will just assume the demand will keep up. however they misunderstanded a key fact ...

How do you know the speed of new house building will outpace the speed of immigration? from what I know, it's gonna be exactly the opposite.
Everybody believe labour shortage in Edmonton will not change for the next 5 years. Now labour shortage has already become a factor that impete the economy growth of alberta.
even more labour comes to Alberta, they will first fill in those industrial positions(pipeline, factory construction), cause these positions pay more.(this is also the reason why there is labour shortage now)

[ 本帖最后由 ligeree 于 2006-7-12 15:37 编辑 ]

北极熊 · 发表于 2006-7-12 16:08

原帖由 cgoca 于 2006-7-11 07:39 发表
( F8 [& V* ?5 Z# [- }. J6 ?anything's price is decided by supply and demand. it is true that a lot of people is coming into Alberta, so people will just assume the demand will keep up. however they misunderstanded a key fact ...

精辟分析，e文也写得很棒。

孤寒一剑 · 发表于 2006-7-12 17:15

Everyone keep saying high volume of immigrants will keep the demands up, as I point out earlier it may not be the case after all. Matter of the fact it is how many high paying job being created to keep the house buying demands matching with the supply or to exceed the supply to keep the price continue rising.

I totally agree that short of labor is slowing down Alberta's growth, however why not company just hire people off the street to meet that demand? because company need people to help to work, but they only need skilled people and only with reasonable price. In Edmonton, the most newly created jobs are low salary labor position, for 30K a year salary, any mortgage amount exceed 100K would likely to be out of reach to those people (based on today's interest rate, and banker's please comment on the exact figure).

there are jobs being created in Fort Mucurry which pays very good, but from what I heard (could be wrong though) that the building activity is slowing down up there due to number of factors, and companys start considering build plants in or near Edmonton region. If that does happen, do you think companys will pay the same rate as in F.M.? My personal opinion is very unlikely because it will defeat the whole purpose of building the plants here.

Another deciding factor is the oil price, I totally agree Hutu's point that the main reason of oil price so high is because the devaluation of the US dollar. there is no shortage of oil in the world at all, not even any shortage of oil inventory. so it is not necessary when the global economy slow down will bring down the oil price (which a global recession is not totally out of the possibilty, look at gold price will give you some clue). if the US economy improve and their trade deficite situation improve will bring up the US dollar value thus drive down the oil price.
Alberta's red hot economy is soly depends on the high oil price, and edmonton's red hot housing market is mainly depends on plants building activities in F.M. it doesn't matter how many plants is under construction, and it doesn't matter how many dollar the companyes have poured into those plants, as soon as there is signal of oil price coming down, those plants build activity will come to halt, trust me on that, if that ever happen, it will be a bloody picture for the housing market in Edmonton.

to be continued.....

孤寒一剑 · 发表于 2006-7-12 19:14

Mr. Hutu has a point that in there was inflation, and since 20 years ago, the canadian dollar has dropped 50% in value. that is a very good point and that is exactly why I am not so bullish about housing market.
if you took out last two years number and look back for about 20 or 30 years, you will find out that house price appreication rate is roughly the same as the inflation rate, and why take out last two years data? becasue it is not normal and it is exactly why the price should correct itself. in the last 20 to 30 years, Alberta and Edmonton has its boom and bust, in the long haul, the house price do appreaciate and it should be close to the inflation rate, what does it mean? it means, the real value of the house never changed, it is just becasue the currency value changed, thus appears the house value changed, just as why the oil price goes up.
my experience with different investment vechile is if anything goes up sharply, it will comes down sharply.

孤寒一剑 · 发表于 2006-7-12 19:16

原帖由 大棒骨 于 2006-7-12 07:07 发表
8 v! j3 C1 p8 b9 E4 w有钱的,没钱的,那么多人抢着买房,怎么会跌.

that is exactly why it is close to the end.

have you ever seen anything that will make most of the people money? I've never seen anything like it before. in my personal experience, this world operate in the way that less than 5% of the people will make big money, about 20% of the people break even, and rest of the people will loose money. that is the rule of the investment in this world, and if anything appears to defying this rule, there must be something wrong and too good to be true

孤寒一剑 · 发表于 2006-7-12 19:24

原帖由 hunter 于 2006-7-12 15:11 发表
/ b" ?1 n6 G. X8 c9 R" e  X6 p; |
8 H2 h5 u; j( X* S$ {
. o  u3 C. ]6 p. Z$ c1 y
& X* i; Y! r6 T; gGood article.
" \. F7 x) w4 J0 X" GOne question:
/ P$ s3 l, m6 U  s% k0 QWhy do yoy think the the current housing market is mainly supported by speculator?

I don't have exact figure, but the people I know around me are mostly priced out of the market, if not, they are strached to the last inch. the people I know do have not bad jobs, and are paid well too. if use this as sample data, then it won't be hard to come up with that conclusion.

peterpan · 发表于 2006-7-12 19:38

这个主题应该是迄今为止本坛关于楼价走势最专业最理性最文明的一次高水平的辩论,顺带着还可以提高一哈有关的英文水平,建议加精华

eree · 发表于 2006-7-12 20:18

原帖由 cgoca 于 2006-7-12 17:15 发表
) ]) U8 a! J9 ~5 B7 ]: F& |Everyone keep saying high volume of immigrants will keep the demands up, as I point out earlier it may not be the case after all. Matter of the fact it is how many high paying job being created to ...

首先，新创造的大部分工作职位恐怕工资都不只30k吧，这里随便一个电工学徒都有这个工资。
其次，30K的工资只能贷10万，不太可能吧，更别说双职工家庭了。这里还有新移民10K多的工资贷10万的

孤寒一剑 · 发表于 2006-7-12 20:27

generally speaking, how much mortgage you should have should be roughly 3 times your annual salary. in the credit card industry, there is a term called total debit ratio, means your total liabilty (including your mortgage, credit card limit, car loan ...etc) should not exceed 40% of your annual income. that's where I get above figure from.

nowadays, banks start to loosen their lending criteria, that is another sign of the housing market near peaking. I know it sounds strange, but if you look at US, you will see in the last couple of years, the banks lending money to people regardless their income and credit worthyness. why? I am not exactly sure, but my take to it is they are running out of the "good customer", therefore they will have to go after the subprime market.

google · 发表于 2006-7-12 23:30

The follow iis a good example. It may tell you the trend of new house price. No mather it is in anywhere in Canada except in Vancouver (many rich Hongkong people there), most of chinese immigrants can not afford this high price. Let's see the result.

西南区新SINGLE HOUSE出售

因工作原因搬出爱城，急于出售，刚刚建成两周，坐北朝南，方厅大窗。7月31日可入住，价格可议。OPEN HOUSE时间：周六下午。

South West - MacEwan
3809 McLean Close
Edmonton $419,995
Approx Sq. Ft: 1940
Bedrooms: 3 Baths: 2.5 More Info
Type: 2 Storey

详情点击COMFREE链接：http://edmonton.comfree.ca/display.html?code=9232

eree · 发表于 2006-7-12 23:58

银行放宽贷钱，主要的原因是因为房地产再升值，作为银行肯定不会吃亏，还不了钱自然有房子抵押

你的推论就不成立了，在房地产火热的时候，只有更多的人买房，更多的人贷款，银行只会赚到更多钱，归根到底银行不是因为找不到好的客户而找差的，而是因为找差的也能赚到钱，所以冒这个险。

原帖由 cgoca 于 2006-7-12 20:27 发表
2 R0 Z; E/ j5 \- |/ V, w) ggenerally speaking, how much mortgage you should have should be roughly 3 times your annual salary. in the credit card industry, there is a term called total debit ratio, means your total liabilty ...

[ 本帖最后由 ligeree 于 2006-7-13 00:32 编辑 ]

eree · 发表于 2006-7-13 00:12

还有一点就是，如果说新进的移民都是低收入的，都是一辈子买不了房的，那么他们是否都住帐篷，或者睡大街，假如不是那么必然要租房，房租升高也自然推动房价上涨。目前来看还没发现买房和租房的费用走向发生什么背离。只有在房租极低，房价极高，急度背离的情况下，房价才会下跌。

原帖由 cgoca 于 2006-7-12 17:15 发表8 t- s: I5 W5 h: z. |
Everyone keep saying high volume of immigrants will keep the demands up, as I point out earlier it may not be the case after all. Matter of the fact it is how many high paying job being created to ...

[ 本帖最后由 ligeree 于 2006-7-13 00:21 编辑 ]

WST · 发表于 2006-7-13 00:28

原帖由 google 于 2006-7-12 23:30 发表
+ o1 ?2 O% K! ?0 mThe follow iis a good example. It may tell you the trend of new house price. No mather it is in anywhere in Canada except in Vancouver (many rich Hongkong people there), most of chinese immigrants ...

You may afford this house a few months ago. With the same money your purchase power
diminishes about 100 feet/month or more. Do not fight with the trend. Current housing market has very solid fundamental support. The price increase is mainly due to the increase of the labor and
constructions cost which raises the price of the new house. The bearish people all blame the
speculator. The speculator is only a catalyst. They are not the main reason for the price surge.

老杨 · 发表于 2006-7-13 00:36

有没有好心人给翻译一下？

孤寒一剑 · 发表于 2006-7-13 01:19

I sincerely hope that I am totally off the mark on this one, and wish everyone good luck on the house hunting.

May God bless you all.

Michael

潇潇2005 · 发表于 2006-7-13 02:00

原帖由 cgoca 于 2006-7-13 01:19 发表. |. ]- P @ k& G
I sincerely hope that I am totally off the mark on this one, and wish everyone good luck on the house hunting. 4 L" s" G& _1 @* M5 M; w" g
/ ?& }" I& x3 }9 d! r
May God bless you all.
1 v. W8 R5 M4 e; L6 g3 j- x" {# p3 |, a5 f+ d9 y' B
( E$ V: r- Z0 J1 F/ I `
Michael

高手！佩服！送朵小花：D

牛眼熊心 · 发表于 2006-7-13 09:07

原帖由 cgoca 于 2006-7-13 01:19 发表
! j/ ?0 ]* l4 bI sincerely hope that I am totally off the mark on this one, and wish everyone good luck on the house hunting. 2 y. i E" W" l+ X6 Q# G

% u' }; g4 W) Z" eMay God bless you all. x K4 D! |% {5 L/ U2 _4 l

7 O+ k: b3 n$ F0 X* n7 _+ {- a2 T) Y& f7 S& F- A' A, u- w
( |6 r4 ~2 _9 \5 W7 I0 k
Michael

先送你几朵花，要知道这珍贵着呢，本论坛唯独顶瓜瓜一人破解了老杨的网站，找到了一个漏洞，偷了几枝花出来。

非常欢迎反面的观点，但我从现在开始要对你进行批判了：

1。人要学习历史，从历史上吸取教训，但人总在创造历史，现在alberta现在正在创造历史
2。3万的工资买不起，两个人就是6万了，可以有20万以上的贷款，买不40万的，20，30万的可以吧？
3。移民到alberta的不光是两手空空的新移民，有些人在国内小有积蓄，带10万，20万来没问题。另外还有很多外省来的，他们在原来省就有房，比如安省的房子一般都是30万以上，来这儿发现房子还便宜些，工资收入又有很大的提高，他们买个40万以上的房子轻轻松松。
4。我并不提倡每个人都买房，现在房子确实涨得离谱。但比较加拿大同内城市，edmonton的房子还不算很高，而工资水平却是很高的，这也提供了房子进一步上涨空间。有能力买房的人应该抓住这最后的机会，不要等到房子到自己真正买不起的时候而望房兴叹。
5。买一个房子的人大多是为了自住，房子的涨跌不用那么看重。虽然要付更多的生活开销，但生活质量成倍提高，大家想想你们来加拿大是为什么？租一辈子地下室？我看这违背了大多数人移民前给自己定下的奋斗目标。
6。上周去了一下showhome, 我的calgary的一个朋友想在edmonton投资一个40万左右的房子，结果被告知lots全部sold out. 和sales聊了很久，她说最快也要到8月以后才有新lot出来，到时候还不知道轮不轮到我。我开玩笑说：现在不是没有地，而是你们不想卖地给我们，她把地图拿给我看，说现在批准的地真的已经卖完了，下一期的地是另一个开发商开发，不知道要等到猴年马月了。现在她手上west的lewis estate and parkland只剩下两三个spec home, 而且全部pending.其中一个show home, 2000尺多，418K，里面的upgrade绝对超过50K，很漂亮了，面对湖，你说贵不贵，你说是不是很多人抢？

[ 本帖最后由 dgg 于 2006-7-13 09:52 编辑 ]

睡不着 · 发表于 2006-7-13 12:47

我是还没登陆, 看房价猛涨, 真是让人睡不着

但有几个应该可当买房或租房的参考

1.房价不可超过5年的薪资, 若单薪以townhouse为比较, 双薪以好区的house比较

2.租金報酬率大於 6％：赶快买, 6％～4％：可以买, 小於 4％：租房子

不知爱城的情况是怎样, 请帮我指正这两个标準

老杨 · 发表于 2006-7-13 21:33

原帖由 dgg 于 2006-7-13 09:07 发表# m3 }( b/ V8 g. F3 Y! Y. d

) o/ C) `9 q1 ]
) m6 ?1 x) U# o0 J9 f) C. l) q先送你几朵花，要知道这珍贵着呢，本论坛唯独顶瓜瓜一人破解了老杨的网站，找到了一个漏洞，偷了几枝花出来。

送你一些花，先用着吧。

牛眼熊心 · 发表于 2006-7-13 22:59

原帖由老杨于 2006-7-13 21:33 发表 c* F; j, p4 K
$ F6 W6 m8 n( `- l
送你一些花，先用着吧。
; s% _3 a3 X% U1 {! Y2 Shttp://www.edmo ...

你是送给你自己的吧？我可是诚心诚意送给人家的啊！

友情提示：请注意花的摆放位置

风雅长存 · 发表于 2006-7-14 10:49

原帖由 麦当当 于 2006-7-10 01:48 发表
2 J4 k4 G- B5 r+ D& n' f0 ~! Y往往越糊涂的人,就胡里胡涂的赚到了钱

严重同意!!

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2006-7-14 18:54

我闭着眼睛回答你的问题：你见过只涨不跌的东西吗？比如，房子如果3年内翻了5倍，你也认为不会跌，对吗？所谓的震荡调整，其实就是短期内的下跌。

原帖由 hutu 于 2006-7-9 15:15 发表
- K3 t g9 t( Y别给人们弄得人心慌的，就像爱城的房价马上就要暴跌似的。
! |$ ]0 X% R$ r& N! y. a% n& S+ `/ L) m7 |% g; s
看跌房市的理由不外乎：
2 B9 d% ~5 ^$ K0 x1 t3 A1．平均房价已经比上一年上涨30%+" H, p5 P, w5 n- m7 e
2．由人为炒作的痕迹。: J; P: G0 Y/ R, }1 I, Q x* k
3．建筑商的狮子大张口，猛涨成品房的价格
" y0 Q$ s, Y& A4．大家都在都在 ...

[ 本帖最后由醉酒当歌于 2006-7-14 18:59 编辑 ]

铁锤镰刀 · 发表于 2006-7-14 22:32

原帖由老杨于 2006-7-13 00:36 发表
. K5 G3 @' h* M1 w, I0 J9 Y有没有好心人给翻译一下？

你真逗!

朱顺顺 · 发表于 2006-7-14 22:40

最近以来因换房要保险的客户明显没有前个把月多. 那个时候一天能接到最少5个电话要求换房屋险. 昨天有个客户从CALGARY打来询问moving coverage, 反问她是否搬家了, 她说还没卖掉, 新房又没搞定. 不解的说C城房子应该好卖啊. 她说房价涨的很高的时候她这个AREA只有两家在卖现在有二十多家在卖. 今天接到一个客户的电话要从CONDO转成HOME, 03'年1800尺2story DUPLEX成交价为67万. 真是高的令人咋舌! 不过在C城工作的同事说那是个非常非常好的区.

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2006-7-15 08:58

如果搜索房子，会发现现在房子很多很多，随便就可以出来几百户。可见，没有房子的阶段已经过去，剩下的就是投资者出手了，仅仅就是价格问题了。

原帖由 旷野暇思 于 2006-7-14 22:40 发表3 Z: f7 R ^6 H# s: {7 l" t
最近以来因换房要保险的客户明显没有前个把月多. 那个时候一天能接到最少5个电话要求换房屋险. 昨天有个客户从CALGARY打来询问moving coverage, 反问她是否搬家了, 她说还没卖掉, 新房又没搞定. 不解的说C城房子 ...

Buddy · 发表于 2006-7-15 11:07

感觉有很多人都在炒房子。就我认识的人当中，至少有7人有两套或三套住房（其实我也不认识多少人），很多人现在买了新房子，旧房子都不买就等再涨价。
个人意见，如果是为自己住，不需要借很多钱的话，该买时就得买，提高生活水平吗。如果是为买房投资，风险较大，感觉盈利空间也不很大了。

孤寒一剑 · 发表于 2006-7-15 11:34

原帖由 Buddy 于 2006-7-15 11:07 发表# x) [2 o& V q
感觉有很多人都在炒房子。就我认识的人当中，至少有7人有两套或三套住房（其实我也不认识多少人），很多人现在买了新房子，旧房子都不买就等再涨价。
$ l1 {0 J8 t5 e个人意见，如果是为自己住，不需要借很多钱的话，该买时就得 ...

this has a very good point. there is a big difference between investment in real estate and buying a house for residency.

if the intension is to buy a house for residency, then all of the above discussion doesn't really apply. because for the residency, the market house price have no a little meanings to the owner. it may have some impact if the owner decide to take out a secured line of credit, but that's about it. for the decision to buy a house or not, should be soly depends on your affordability and financial situation, not by market trend and condition.

if it is for invenstment purpose, then you will need to analyze risk vs reward, and the whole discussion above shows that invest in the real estate market right now is a high risk decision, specially to most of the people who have no or little invenstment experience. the risk factor raise dramatically if you have to rely on financing (mortgage) to conduct this investment.

edmontonjqh · 发表于 2006-7-15 23:26

我不知道是涨还是跌？但感觉现在买房的很邪，我认识好几位刚上班的就买两套三套的，行情真有点疯了。而且其中还有打labor工.

小叶子 · 发表于 2006-7-16 00:23

原帖由 edmontonjqh 于 2006-7-15 23:26 发表+ [& I& e6 |8 R6 v8 f6 N* F3 H
我不知道是涨还是跌？但感觉现在买房的很邪，我认识好几位刚上班的就买两套三套的，行情真有点疯了。而且其中还有打labor工.

奇怪, 怎么贷到的款?

一半清醒 · 发表于 2006-7-17 10:40

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-7-14 18:54 发表
3 k/ g( i# C9 c3 T我闭着眼睛回答你的问题：你见过只涨不跌的东西吗？比如，房子如果3年内翻了5倍，你也认为不会跌，对吗？所谓的震荡调整，其实就是短期内的下跌。$ g, I: u& a! @* M" C
5 ?- j3 ~- Z' X; |1 f0 Y9 p. p

你也太藐视老朽了，还敢闭着眼睛回答问题；话又说回来了与争着眼睛回答有区别吗？
没有只涨不跌的东西，但在一个波段中有单边上升的市场，看看石油，商品，外汇等一旦形成趋势，短时间内很难改变趋势的。
你见过只跌不涨的东西：就是我们用货币—钱，越来越不值钱。
你前面贴过一个30年房价趋势图，让你看着图去买卖房子都不一定有你一只持有赚的多。
我有个忘年交的股友增感叹道：股市赚的方法其实很简单，就是低买高卖，但谁也不知道高低在那里。

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