ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

依勒特

Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.

The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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6 y) V8 [8 d3 |" U0 I"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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* ^" C& H/ V: i& v0 S' t- D- rTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.

- i! W3 H6 ]# r1 G& [Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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8 v, v# o. e/ O- |3 D9 K, Thttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575

宋兵乙

TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,

. F& P, p6 B8 w; Z[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]

流光飞舞

茶水

跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了，都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气，享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活，退休了回中国住半年，这里半年。对了，中国的房子千万不要着急出手，否者退休后回国没有房子住了，到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
再说了：听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前，那时候的专业工作容易找，来的早的买到便宜的房子，一般的townhouse13-16万，现在则18-25万。今非昔比，如今很多人都回学校深造去了，除非经济危机短期能够回转，否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。

3 C/ [) X: R3 I/ L[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]

dezhongxiao

原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来，edmonton应该再跌一些，虽然中国和加拿大不同，中国发展的不如加拿大均衡，但还是有可以借鉴的地方，比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗？如果能跌到24万！哈哈！我们一般的打工族不用 ...

很多人都回学校深造去了
9 W8 S5 D0 e; ?" l" t( F嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。

依勒特

Alberta
5 f- {# o$ ?3 W9 W+ ~Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
# _$ K& v- F8 {1 {5 I; vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
8 k) x& ^: z( d# [  x; Zare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
# w1 J! Y/ z. A- s9 K9 \from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
4 j1 Y  k$ T: V6 L# \% Ethe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
5 \+ {& ^8 N8 A. m( l7 Q8 omay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
* T& V- _$ m5 ?8 g; Mto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& Z0 T4 `! T% s- j$ R7 J& K  g  Cprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ B! B. D& [: ~6 thomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
30,000 new households will form in the province during
, I+ q2 |& q; e2 Z2 r% g* l2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
7 u( v) ~# V4 \- h/ b2 _0 K, k' G! fhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
  M7 }& e+ \, T+ h) h. Jhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
! L- o: t6 N# E# v( n% y  ssales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
9 ]7 t# @/ ^6 U  n4 y5 `clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
# z4 t3 _+ g7 V+ cexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
* l. k- J2 {- c& b1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
0 V! b6 a( x. K2 C/ P- `sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
! L0 z3 L1 b6 v0 vbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
+ C& y5 f0 C  t* G$ I* Jtwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
1 k/ k5 P" R  k+ Y- munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
( s& Y9 d" Z# Q2 ~. b4 p* wunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
! T' \) O' d' t. R, L5 dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
: ?2 I. u* a7 j* _0 k6 ^The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
2 ~3 c; T2 c  \+ A/ c$ z, q9 C( FAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
8 t  o, A7 P1 l- t& e4 z" Mhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
; w8 k; R9 d+ g- a$ V1 ~relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
3 }7 ?3 d; ^: E  K9 Gon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
# s) q! }% q1 X3 [" oThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
4 G3 w" i1 h: I3 D; F/ g0 Y- G8 aresale price in February is evidence that past prices
7 {! k  a0 f9 h' \) e/ sexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
7 [* Z/ \; W9 R, v3 \# ^. s8 Xhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
# N2 _1 ^% L# [. t, rdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
leg down over 2009.

! ]. e1 {1 V- j1 J- t[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]

依勒特

Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
/ ^& L  o% |* I" r' j  JAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]

依勒特

同胞们，底就要来到了。打起精神，准备抄底！

依勒特

Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
翻译：brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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: s) \/ o: m+ Z* X( b# m7 F. I[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]

宋兵乙

icing