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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
- S- \5 i S4 Y e- q0 d% q. ~0 S' W6 n/ l( [$ ^
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat + ~/ i/ F" z: m
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US! C8 D$ M5 }2 h. `1 j
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
& B' N, ~, C, h2 K2 q% Yas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging7 R# D7 T7 r; R$ S; d+ I
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
; @ M8 a" i- B0 q) d! |! m6 @3 oand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more3 x# p& R* h3 e1 |/ [" T* w
upbeat.9 T5 M9 B! M( X: U9 b
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded( f# m6 ~( l f/ z3 d& F9 F
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects @/ x8 L% e) L4 Y5 a% z
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
! P: ^* S ^' ]4 o3 m# l/ _- gestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
' i' r* l+ ]( x6 i9 u/ b! o, Wrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
# t: \ L% {4 y* ]6 b1 Y mOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
. D' n7 a; l5 v9 wincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
# i6 g: @) J. \$ u According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
" A8 T, ^/ g6 JReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment' e4 ~: b. V% x a/ K! `1 I3 i
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to) m9 N5 O: B9 g
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
2 [8 X- n3 U' }9 x* ]& f# l vhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
' m# M7 [. q ^( y5 Q& N) j According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the+ e' N o4 s8 x. m& P
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
$ G% t5 ?$ ~9 G0 U* I& [, {. Aspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
# [( z N4 A) j; X- h% wremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
. [ O+ ^- ?) W9 ^4 J, Ncorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be6 A( p9 x* j* c/ U
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
( y' K. K7 ?, ]* y3 J The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
5 `$ z+ ~0 Z3 lrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
+ D$ K: e3 K# F. D) [commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land, [ {$ t6 b$ h/ Y" c, x3 F& } |8 G7 ]2 G
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
9 C8 x& ?7 Z, y! n7 jespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
! T9 F5 c5 B) h8 c; Odevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
6 b$ r k- L# A) B- ^0 R4 Dresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
2 |3 A4 l' w a% }1 M$ K3 s0 {take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and6 W7 e% D; [+ L: Z O
single-family housing looks overpriced.0 s, L0 Z2 W* f, `; G
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
0 v+ U! z* t } Ctenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian2 {' E2 ]' F+ H3 ~1 m/ J6 u
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
0 l/ [: e7 K7 s6 vhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting, z# P5 H: O# C/ K
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
) ~6 q6 b4 O, wand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental. b$ _8 F- p6 U1 T! {$ S
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary l ~ [! g$ _: V# B' o
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
6 _; V: j4 K9 {5 J, Mshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into. d$ n) n' X! u+ s6 D% O: C
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development- ?% j! B$ ?$ n% g5 N: Z
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
% j9 Q" z& f. m% {, ~; T5 F, A! i2 ^1 E7 M+ V
Canadian Markets to Watch2 h3 e+ ^! x/ d# z& }5 M
N. I; |( D* n5 O7 Y0 o% I The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central$ F) } F2 F2 |
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour% K4 }3 u# X1 R% d3 ~ C: U Z$ _/ U
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
* e! m* b+ Q% P1 s2 Yinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in" \0 I( L8 I7 k3 E# p$ Y
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical6 n! ~+ ?: Y7 c K5 k! r- V
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
0 ~$ y1 K8 |0 G- h2 mwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment; D$ r3 L' G @" R7 Y1 L4 e- I/ N
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
: m& S- S1 X: ?3 p, u+ R& Vwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.; U5 X- b! C4 R1 }5 j: Z, K5 i6 y+ K
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high7 L* A/ E+ t3 @2 v" K# ~3 [
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.) \: t) x0 y; s. ?. b
! {7 V( H- k3 J- a* p3 O9 M+ w6 @ Calgary/Edmonton5 X; u b$ T4 ?; v m
; x' `6 x: y$ z0 k Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one0 @ @3 n' V! @) o. r( N9 G5 f7 F
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a& L. V9 m9 {7 p$ P5 |$ F) k, h) p
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
+ ^0 Z+ R$ W5 ^% J1 }+ l9 u1 Y! J48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
q' n2 n) Y; a# q) c) O# o# pFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
4 O/ y8 `- r' j3 f2 l( IHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the- ~& M R1 r4 E* k% [3 [
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
5 o5 N! X% B( `- rstrong, this market will continue to do well.7 _5 `* @( u" c( I, ~
% U8 j- M, g% x* c# X
Vancouver/ ]; ^. f M4 c( r) e
( Q4 s- b) ?7 V
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
# o" c, `: f/ I! K& h" O/ u1 Cbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous* }; g' }2 I" _" f- g& V
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the3 z u" x: Z% m& F4 r% |1 u% s
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a! O2 L$ T2 n2 c: H
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy9 v, a. l, E F8 x+ a
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%; L* W m8 e2 O) h! [" X
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%, o6 r% y" K+ s0 x+ T1 C/ W* f. c. i
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very* ~# m# J+ p' y; p
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.$ M) X9 J m: X) g7 p: p# b
8 h4 M9 l$ {0 `, y Toronto
$ p6 g. M, d3 z
% f4 b k& V) }/ i/ F Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and( Y: }5 r* `3 `( c! R6 J
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
% v" T# S l \, [, m% Arelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
9 W8 X* D9 i1 v% j! b" H# U# }; Uindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
( W; d! W+ y) e2 }( ?Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
% @( c2 F2 \. z; z$ G- S6 _feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
$ I }' {7 \* f. h* cApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
; Z% E2 P/ K f1 \& Z% f
* R" w n, f# b- Y j Montreal/ u2 _3 X3 b; J1 {8 X4 |: \
u" K1 z; c7 X1 V& T Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall: I3 D. m0 B1 P! e! \4 o
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
% i) H$ X! m% r: V F) Zshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in+ g5 i2 n2 u5 G; e& }! n
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate& ]( q$ B$ b( y
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors" ]) _# J% Z- \1 p; q; |( G: A, T
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
, K E1 z# ~/ c' n. ~" {; \4 y8 f
8 w* s$ I/ b" m5 p7 T% K The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
8 w9 Q+ C3 N- b$ z4 {include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy+ f5 @! s; I9 t9 v) ]7 e- Y
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
( u/ X) Y/ ~1 H, F9 h0 i7 hnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest* i& W2 `4 `% C& q/ T0 k
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
* @+ R- q7 D6 p! t" v$ nprices."$ C3 L8 \ \$ X4 z& J$ z. i, a8 ?
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at- G+ A' J$ x0 m& v7 k) u. p
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.; n- I7 {3 L1 S8 g2 z
' g1 ^: n# h6 L/ Q/ d About PricewaterhouseCoopers
+ M; B5 |0 n3 E5 B+ {. [0 n# X
- C" A) h' Y8 i% N; h8 J PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
) B( r( r+ V" W* C+ Q" ltax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its; h# g+ I; v+ s- `/ m1 J7 z) l5 ~: j
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries* H0 @: h2 ~0 a5 J; B2 r' _* t
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop% D3 s6 x/ T% y+ E- Z
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of3 }5 J: B" n! k1 n2 x1 X8 c9 P! x
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
2 w0 `3 W# L" v% Irelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the8 I5 i+ ?( ^2 H! c. `7 a
country.
* [2 n6 j1 m& G "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario) V2 r' J* }0 R3 o! N6 Z: |
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the0 G2 p) N- ~5 B' M' S7 w
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,+ l$ [9 A: L0 h% a
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
( U& @; H! w) o' H: C& d* R5 M% D1 N; I
About the Urban Land Institute
1 U: [4 B# S0 V. {- P- a
- D1 h9 w7 s& L; V7 Q: ^# E( b, I The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
& p0 ~" i6 H5 v- K/ Z" R) @: }research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide2 m' j0 w- i2 P, [6 g) ^5 _0 [* Y" u
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating. t1 K8 F( b3 U/ o( d
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
3 `( ^4 [: f* f7 [; l6 gthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development( n W# x& r8 M1 q! g
disciplines.
$ I4 q" X% a" O" i& G; Z% | The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.- n6 f% R5 _ g; B! w* X
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
; a5 z, k% F4 @( RCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is2 v: A! Q/ r; s0 |# n" X
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be' @0 P. S( A7 M" z
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,# H) ~/ f' z8 r. ~ `5 d
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake$ ]( P3 e% M3 e: C$ U5 a' i
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
: d' c+ j Y* p; B- s+ Y1 G- _4 OPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please$ R' j* ~/ S( ]0 h+ U- O
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on$ c9 R: g$ Z1 \2 g
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
. f; j4 r4 k( W2 z% Y3 k7 C) _- _- k" s
; b6 i' n. U5 }2 [1 Z( a9 H1 ~/ E# w5 Z* }1 [
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
, ]$ F8 G6 M. b7 J+ ], m(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
+ q* O) G( t6 g0 X3 L" vhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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