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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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6 Z4 N. `6 F0 ]* n7 A bDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 4 n* g* A$ ?; S: l$ y! ]* s
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US/ A8 [9 Q: X( O% w* N
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern& Q: ]! ~% t& r$ a
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
, J7 ^# b u2 v) {* g- _Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
3 f; @ L3 l3 z" x6 X+ }; k# eand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more, l$ h& ?; e5 G2 e z
upbeat.( U4 i) g6 S% F8 S/ r0 o
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded' M7 A1 l! {" B- e; P/ e
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects% H7 G, Q# {* H/ N
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real2 [% L4 ]4 H3 M8 Z3 Z8 A
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
' f* l x" `* J6 M3 `6 O! qrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US. x& X4 ~/ g5 l( u
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world# @) g9 v6 o3 \3 a
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
' C2 g3 u) \; h0 A According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian$ c) @( I( D: _# R8 T/ i
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
$ P/ G0 C# [$ g$ d: J' n2 X. `environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
7 f! U& G# S' K7 Y# _7 s* n qbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record' W* N5 ~6 f( |7 C5 [
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
7 H$ ~ ?8 W' s x' | According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the+ l. y( s6 X8 [9 J# @
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
! S5 |& ?2 ]3 U4 A+ h$ _speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey5 i: X5 n! d( K# A/ i' g( X% D) g
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
2 ]% ?; V1 ]5 |1 T' e7 fcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
% i" q# I& G( R/ H' `$ N1 b: mvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.1 k- t3 _2 o9 j( a; p4 g+ t
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian5 |! l4 I( h* }) C/ A: V: D
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by) [4 G& s; d" a9 u. H% n
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
) I5 M9 ]: I G! i; ldevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
/ `- S: ]: C* `' {, g5 Wespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating' P2 Z- m4 S- v" z1 e3 d
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The- k5 o1 z3 O! l* ]4 H R3 U4 S- [/ c
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to2 T- k5 A) G/ F1 A1 ?7 ~( j$ s
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and; Y0 m. q% F5 L s
single-family housing looks overpriced.
\1 \- ?0 M$ | Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with+ h2 V O' n# d
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian/ e( h5 B0 F2 Q& O
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
2 K/ J& G% w, ~; F! M( Nhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting$ |4 \ R+ j! p/ k8 T7 \. p
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
2 ]# n% V+ c: k/ u; f7 }5 W* Q3 Mand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental! f- B9 \3 L' J: H: E9 L" P4 P& y% A( H; t
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary' {& {9 J5 H6 I- T
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing9 F& h) H7 ^/ f3 ~/ t
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
2 T: y# m, r# e7 Q+ b& dthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development, k. @( G( @% ? G# Z+ @
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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" ?) J( a$ U* w0 Z$ N+ O1 a# W f Canadian Markets to Watch( @' G8 x; [; ]0 R; k) ]
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central7 ` E3 Y7 T4 @* N
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
) v9 B/ q) h5 n6 `1 Q$ R; Uneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
% y! J* `$ I. B8 L6 q+ binto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in. m- L6 k9 [; F) P6 h& h6 K
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical: D+ d) @4 v" f" k3 X( P1 @- P( q
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out+ a; }% V8 O0 A
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
: Z0 V( r, D1 h2 lprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain1 g! ?3 S p8 X6 q
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this./ t# z( w5 x s$ l2 y! ^, u
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high8 I# b2 }2 E( b: c7 Y5 M. m
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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/ j0 I$ @$ {/ \8 n1 B' {! ~ Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one: ^6 |% ^* m7 V* h% b& n2 i: E( f
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a9 P, V5 O( Y$ t- A( u
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
; [: j& S- z$ w: K48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.. r5 B3 Y$ Q5 B/ l, j* P7 I5 O
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale) E! Q! F/ g2 s0 q# B
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the) Y; |! | j' @5 N
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
6 w# d7 l7 H1 l' ^strong, this market will continue to do well.: y- R0 B+ C/ T5 x# k# P
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Vancouver
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) n7 n' G/ L4 l Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is7 a$ S/ {# E) v5 ~. q, J6 b
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
* h% @& b) x9 ]0 Xreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the$ z# R' K3 P2 d( E
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
: l5 J, L: v4 }, ?/ } Xgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy" k; {3 z- a( c, E
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%8 z) ], b- s- |1 z. L
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%9 I) P; e7 P- z. O% R
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
( ?1 y& K0 u% o3 d6 l2 T5 M J" cgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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- f( X$ ~! Z* z' \9 c+ } Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and& M5 x; P" d2 c+ U1 {1 Y' b
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is; _: S, b4 Y" u& q" a: m* S
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing6 X, T1 m: a3 @5 W
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
# D# r# d3 J' n+ i0 O& GThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square6 X3 [4 M: I3 a
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
' f4 ~, E/ _2 `# x, j/ H, P" P0 _Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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" |. F" g8 z, I% Y! V& w. N" D Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
. }& V% E7 t7 R8 c2 |6 zgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up' L. _; Z8 H0 ]9 j7 ]! ~ x2 w
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in2 S8 J: _7 [0 q1 G8 P+ O3 u/ x. S
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
8 v A0 A# A* |& h }" S2 `sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors$ t# l6 N8 b. R
higher as a "hold" recommendation.: t* A \# q, a; C% L1 H
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years8 c: i k7 n( N1 T( F1 D
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy9 D3 n! k: i' I7 u5 Y7 R1 u
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos% {- B; ~$ o% ]- G
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest( K j9 {2 @4 R9 N
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current& `1 C/ Z3 w( T0 R9 |
prices."8 t* Q I9 r7 b# {7 g" I' F
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
, Q5 E: W/ Q1 H* n$ ?' {& Twww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.% J" `6 S: u3 k+ a
R, Q ]+ X* i) D* K
About PricewaterhouseCoopers `& U1 v2 q/ b
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,0 p$ B- Z! o# A# R# c+ O- H
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its. i& L) R' G( ?3 v( I! x2 T( z
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries* |& y- h) c- W5 a
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
' g0 Z8 D2 N6 \% S) zfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
' W, M3 W) a9 ?( n, r! F5 Yexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its4 ?+ R: |1 }9 @# g* b% V8 [4 \
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
n4 N) s$ [ c' G4 k4 Jcountry.( n4 u, O; y: @9 K3 o
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
! g" g- j' e, G6 Olimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the& b z' U1 o4 p7 Q* L! H8 X
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,9 H3 ?: f5 l% z. Q
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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" [* i2 O# U, |5 |* `) _ About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
! `2 K( e& @- Sresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
0 j; U& P' w) q& dleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
% g0 H, @+ u- R- @. Cthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
4 x( J9 h' \/ W: y% @9 Y' Ithan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
3 o) I; q: F1 p; I: M' udisciplines.
; b6 a0 c9 |! G4 l The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.' r$ f! C" m2 {. W& s4 P1 y
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District9 k5 ]+ }0 i& i' c: Z! E% C7 l
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is7 c2 H1 H, }4 L: K, g3 Y
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
# E7 c: v5 p: \hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,1 _9 R/ y O/ M$ Z# ]
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake* v6 }" ` f% L( p( {
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras, _$ G4 L& n: H# L# r
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
; R! U8 @& |- S5 G2 |# N6 Bcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on3 R& m0 p. w) z6 J
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,8 ~3 n( o8 B# _; N+ B; Y
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com2 h& d2 S) A% Q; i
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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