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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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. R0 c5 j6 T" l, J! }, q6 UDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
h2 o3 s4 g$ H' e TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
7 g3 ~! C( n5 p* ~+ G/ I2 R$ Hcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
5 H; i0 e/ }+ g5 ?% q/ X2 ]as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging2 C$ O1 ~) b1 ?; q) l
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
2 K5 P6 ^. p {and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
/ [/ u- s% |3 qupbeat.
& s( c7 S! }, m$ I Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
& h- j4 H2 z( `+ Q, A& m1 Q. Cannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects- W7 B( e* a: g! n6 S6 O
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
* I6 S2 r+ U8 s C/ Y, Hestate experts, including investors, developers, property company7 g4 Y& P; t. _3 y
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
0 i: k8 s. N4 t6 `" x) R+ Y0 AOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
4 Y4 R! A6 l+ O! P+ T" N& lincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.6 u: f; p; c( n% _! P7 H! T% P
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
+ x$ H2 x1 @% p" JReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment# @2 V- ~ X* H- c5 m3 ]
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
" L x; F" s4 r( _1 Q z8 I8 u8 P/ Tbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
% J7 r/ P/ _9 `: |& A. E/ I# Ehighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
: ~+ X* {% r6 j6 O0 {! { According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the) g' C& `7 F; [' U M& s
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
+ ?9 k7 L& r* x. C! g1 W3 i2 Jspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey1 Q" T4 [- S9 H3 [6 B" V" f1 }# |
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US+ g! o9 I: a: v; ^. h4 i
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be& r% p+ {/ f) L( v2 s9 g
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
% C0 G4 L- |/ T I6 V The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian4 k$ _4 i4 x2 Y
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by! x( w3 S! T) ~5 e
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
, w0 a% l& j3 f' Kdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
+ s) p/ h. {2 n5 u9 }$ S: i& K. G* }especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating9 e1 }/ F) n! F. R4 P7 _
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The1 [! A, j% P0 V, V! l/ a
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to- |. o& l/ I$ l. v! J
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and, H$ H! u; P6 U' U5 q3 Y
single-family housing looks overpriced.* K4 B+ h6 K2 V- z, Z
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with9 }5 y3 D+ A! Z) Y: H$ X
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
* O, y; q R2 emetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
$ U2 b* H6 _1 q9 q2 m E. [. l( Qhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting9 Y" O2 j" j9 @0 n6 T
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,& u$ C0 b* ^; @( a% c, @
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
o# G0 b0 N- M. q: S/ g2 ~apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary- ?* x! K& E; m9 n
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
8 n# v& s' x! vshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into! A* j1 F3 X, b6 d
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development/ y- q9 m7 x8 b$ R7 l5 |* R+ Q
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch7 [" [) s. b- Q+ [" l3 \
% G2 i1 h" i( _8 `4 V( @. } The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
- n) K* Q0 w0 z. O' v! Gcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour( w9 L9 m# D" d k [& ^+ w
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
: b- g& Z: L2 ]+ binto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
4 O3 j2 \& D7 r8 ~0 zdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical: [/ L* b+ o# W0 o# @
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out B: R. @) R# B0 R
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment* |+ \8 ~3 A4 L5 D* K4 C/ ]
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
; C" C5 q" Z v* Rwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.* L* z2 Z7 }! h! Q$ Y- N5 ?* M" F' q
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high5 M& e% a& l3 m, \
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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8 A9 j7 N+ g5 V! Q$ z/ W Calgary/Edmonton4 F0 }) O# F X" k" v3 M( r+ {6 a
. u7 K, ~* o# }' a
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
. w D5 L9 v v2 M2 a4 f" {& I& P8 @boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
. V% r. b* r) U: e) q! X+ c4 Q, Ubuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,+ |' T( a9 W% [
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.* r! |) R5 f( O. n6 A5 }. R
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale' p! }# O. h2 ~. x# q* @
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
" g: M# y2 I1 FCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
]3 u$ m9 { f2 bstrong, this market will continue to do well.
( G/ y9 n9 z, K, V* i' t* J {3 R- i9 W* ~( ~
Vancouver: A. N0 h2 N" L2 J9 c0 B+ ?/ r
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
3 a0 Q) H( e% t- ]: w* Vbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
' k0 I3 M" B' areal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
( G) ~8 {; m& Q: A' qmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a5 ?' F8 e Z: E4 o) r8 G2 R
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy" s O+ y* c7 v! t7 a8 I: T
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
' O* U& A4 c. Vfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%2 |- z) z& [' l
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
* s1 D5 X# F3 ~ ~, z( N5 _good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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" ^6 O7 J$ ~$ H2 s Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and1 @' C) h: ?5 Q# O- ?' ^5 F, ?8 R9 C
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
g1 _+ ?$ b: a Q5 n* y8 Erelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
1 v, a T) K4 ]industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.0 N$ u' q( ]; o) d
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square; T' y, i4 Z0 ]( x J$ d1 S: E
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
2 N2 F' q& B n7 N! UApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.4 q% ^( v! L/ T. Y
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Montreal# ?, ?7 o; m& `: w5 k ]
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
2 m& p3 `+ k; s, F9 ?8 O# G/ z @growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up% l- [. [' E! Z
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
: U1 L* r8 N0 V& V3 J6 j2 ACanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate' I" T2 ]# F; D3 e: Z3 g
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
" b& u8 g9 ~& ]5 `# Rhigher as a "hold" recommendation.; {% v( c( k* S0 k0 S& Z7 R( D- a- L
/ q3 A( ] z# h1 R. S The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years; E. o. x- R" r: y; M# ?( t! H6 \
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
! U2 k: |' `# i" H9 Ymarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
i7 R1 U) ^% Mnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
8 P% @1 N) _: K6 o, loverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current9 V# O. N8 G" c7 p% a0 @; g! Q# T
prices."6 S% V- w3 H' K' K$ Q) u- N3 v; P
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
/ y" h. Z6 V8 J( o. y' f# ]: ~% kwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre., M' [: N6 d, p' U, y6 G
- W1 u; \3 r: b" C- h
About PricewaterhouseCoopers5 h- I6 r, Q7 m4 y8 P+ U8 Y
, @2 j" G3 p3 S0 F) \; } PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
* w* D1 Y' S2 ttax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its* A+ a7 }6 s5 `+ J/ s
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
% [5 c) k8 O9 ?+ i1 G' oacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop w2 P6 y. K% X$ [7 j
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of& p8 k! h$ O8 G: `0 O
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
& T; E% R7 z4 K" k7 h1 i1 N# ]$ Frelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
, {# O) E' k# O: q9 o0 _$ rcountry.
6 e, j( W& G- {/ M& s; l' J "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
* \+ h& j8 Z% k. C( Q6 {limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the. S- t& H+ A2 Q* ]9 h3 f9 i
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,' x. `# @& |1 E+ g/ O
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.6 v" Q: L! z) b& K' G
. C$ @* n3 P/ \% \. q% W/ a About the Urban Land Institute) h# L0 l+ _% c( j0 l) d1 b
- a: Q- d* f% q' o7 Z2 z4 _* F. @
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
1 J. d' \/ ?) E- R8 q0 bresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
* v* M# q; x/ f! Yleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
% `& D4 ]( `& S; o* @- D! a: ]/ I5 s+ jthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
, e* e7 J0 F. R) o @than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
2 _4 n8 F' J0 I9 Ddisciplines.3 h2 l6 \9 O( ?6 U' ~0 |
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
( Z, {# s* ]- N' O3 w% [With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District; f9 m, E" K D% q
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
" C8 {; j6 c A# `+ _; Unow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
* }* F, J% H0 D) r% s2 z+ G) Fhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
1 B2 P4 M% m" e- A" A$ n: b2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake: c# j' l e; c( a+ z6 X
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,# o s, C h9 N1 }% X
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
0 \, F4 I5 ~; T/ O* E8 X" r8 n3 Acall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
( @. _" T2 d% K) ^6 _the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.+ `: z8 r6 ^4 w4 {/ m3 L7 [
4 [; ]$ k2 V Z+ s
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+ K4 K8 [' N' i; u4 T. {% iFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
+ t2 V _, ~. }( A% k3 X7 l& V(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com1 B" u0 G7 d; D9 \7 I9 u
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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