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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat # M+ `+ h2 k$ D( k* h* I
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
0 z" w7 q' s6 H1 t, a+ scommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern! s7 D* F9 q0 a
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
' e* N" u. c+ M7 ]0 W0 h' n2 nTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
5 h; e2 j# I$ d9 d) S2 Land the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more& @3 ~* ~! d! W: U1 J4 J! x2 x
upbeat.
4 ~& f P! I3 S5 k( P: E! X Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded- c# a; Q- }1 _; \4 f
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
' c( R/ R3 U& h; t$ d% x linterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real* c! f: O$ k- d8 l# c( j1 ^- F
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
& T9 k4 e( N* _2 r! c0 A' T+ Orepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
- _ A; w# S" C' z M7 d1 K! U7 ^Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
2 [) P- ?! B: @4 `1 K0 q- ~including Asia Pacific and Europe.
! N0 Z8 v) v2 A According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian+ y$ \+ T: y5 W' `" x: y' w: w: ~
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
' h: l. b. G+ w, j/ [environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to, u# V: E3 h* e( L' {3 A
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
# X4 a! B8 p6 q1 c/ x, `highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."0 H$ @6 w( ~* R* B
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the6 R$ I$ W/ A7 B' ?& e
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game% d) r, {% w, b9 G, `9 Q8 ]; v1 S- n
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey6 l2 ?* w. S+ b6 r
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
* Q' e! ?8 U8 x+ e* ^. |7 Pcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be. ^: O @$ w J( c; _
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.: ^! v( @7 {( ~# @( G
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
* Q# u7 N7 l, g e+ j3 P8 @0 @respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
$ Z% b' H/ x) q/ J( Acommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
& G* K! V* q# |- m$ j9 T6 Jdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
* Y6 h3 [: N4 q) E d; L" c: hespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
7 m8 b4 h+ A2 Q+ f1 d5 ~development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The8 o s- r) {% F3 \5 W, Y
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
9 n# C! P6 `) j) m, S* ~2 h+ o" j* S/ Ntake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
" H4 j, j" G& Osingle-family housing looks overpriced.
) D5 c+ A, t2 O9 @5 F) p" D/ R/ o. u; I Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
5 k% ?1 j- B2 x5 h3 a; G+ ~tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian/ P' M2 F4 i9 O4 ]/ X N: `
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
9 h) d3 z, Q8 s; H3 w- L/ _1 ?higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
1 y+ F1 G1 [- a, K9 H8 ?3 v; Hnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
1 S; d4 ~; r8 E5 D2 r, Z/ H; @and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
& \- F% s$ L% k# B* u5 Mapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
E% y! z/ F0 K( zwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
+ p9 i" L# F6 qshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
0 S4 J: m+ l, f( mthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
, A3 i0 X" U0 k% O& {5 yin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.5 F2 s& P3 h X% l. b: O
8 F+ Z) O# n0 r/ Y8 j: S. T
Canadian Markets to Watch/ X0 j, G% u0 q" r- l8 J/ S; t
# O4 V9 w" t/ ~% F The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
( W3 C: m5 K( p( Tcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour. ?( x! D% k( x$ D9 O
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
& i" d, x G2 w! z3 h0 ]into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
y9 D- J: w udowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
+ H. Y0 j! ^. z" c( Nprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out+ D9 k5 Q: J& j; Q1 E1 J
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
; F- k. f7 V! H( Z2 R# r0 kprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain# j8 F$ Z+ r0 B. M& a
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
! d$ ~, g& w3 L) b1 R6 @Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
0 F1 K% a1 s/ @. e& x0 Y8 Rratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.$ l! B7 V$ I# W0 d+ m' G& R
. g: J" K. K: Y5 }, d8 r
Calgary/Edmonton3 v$ N; N2 f7 ^' @3 \$ X* u
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
* d5 T7 ^+ R! O& e" [ F7 @7 lboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a( d7 p8 z; C+ F" |" u
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
( H# T* n+ [5 Q- f! A48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.% c) W+ J3 F$ N+ l
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
# O8 b9 \$ @4 |7 R8 b9 _9 IHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
6 G/ p4 E" a0 I4 n4 U4 C) ACalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
4 q4 q; A. f$ ]$ y9 ^strong, this market will continue to do well.
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% h# \' L* f# X. `0 V Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
* r5 Z, b+ ?/ Z m: y- ~4 Q4 rbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
. I8 U0 X% W( e9 U* j/ Q1 vreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the5 e X" x; p/ T7 Q0 Y }9 K
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a+ D! [8 a8 y- Y8 e; I
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
# n, ^/ B# B' t3 D$ \& x1 x' crecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
: G0 l9 H$ I* m/ l2 @% Yfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%: W0 y8 R5 o T! U2 H
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
0 z! ?% t* H$ j }$ ?, f* L, t! [good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.- C# x+ ]7 x; y
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Toronto+ C' U) Q$ |' L+ T9 T
% T" F$ P; J& I( ?3 L9 z" y Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and: @+ {6 A" e# `
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
8 \8 B8 ~) C% w- V1 A* U4 z# g: crelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing6 Z7 ]3 O3 L0 N! P; K3 N2 a
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.8 O4 P7 q" [2 r' S* E$ d
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square3 i7 h4 s% w4 G4 |
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and: _' Q, V% F, Y/ j1 Q( i
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.$ j! c4 g: a# b/ b0 e
$ n( D" l$ Z2 U3 i: @ Montreal% ?6 Y8 U; M: F
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
+ V. G% P8 v: x+ ]- Xgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
/ f$ u2 @- C. k4 h6 X% Mshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in, ^8 R' _; _% S+ J
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
' a# D; ^: c! L8 X- ]sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors0 `; f0 h8 l: y
higher as a "hold" recommendation.3 a0 U) K! d+ m2 B3 I. `
% ?. ~$ l$ E1 T+ c5 X% e) |
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
" s) n: P0 @' B$ \. ^include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy6 n ]5 F0 Y; L$ E% z, {2 _+ `# @
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos8 `; F6 s4 G2 r
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest9 p$ t! I1 l* X$ d1 G
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current) \6 G5 i ~" M- P
prices."
! f* M0 F0 v2 b, P$ x A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
! l! n0 q" R2 W' b ~7 Bwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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- F& V* B7 S0 I& p4 `7 D0 j, ~! u About PricewaterhouseCoopers8 d- c* O9 E* Z5 l, l
2 P' J) a& v% h' P+ d6 m1 J$ }
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
5 @7 H$ S! Y3 [6 r6 Ntax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its+ m' _1 w* y- k f
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries" @% c M( Y8 Q! v6 l
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop' f6 ?8 `/ _: G0 J
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of1 P5 ]# }$ U( a
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
5 @' o2 P, _# urelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the, D9 `% G5 X3 C/ \( a! d/ u
country.
, q9 f5 v. r! D5 C2 r: t "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario3 k# D. q7 s! S. i3 \& L4 P7 S
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
8 H( D I0 \. O. |/ \PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,0 ~6 z. C( w3 B/ k9 ^$ B
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute. o4 F+ I# b8 ]' a
' t+ @' r% @' G/ U, I9 ] The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and5 g, @0 n2 f$ k8 _. G" H
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
$ G7 H& B. B! }5 x/ Eleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating5 T6 j! j5 l4 _! P1 M2 g
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
/ @' D/ I# |/ q9 [. n# k5 Z* U+ W& ^than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development- ~- @+ Z9 z" c
disciplines.
7 \" O3 z9 S) e5 b The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada. f4 t: J. h* O3 ^! [
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District. I( Z. \1 N) ]0 M6 a
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
; T4 B" m, d# w' h, F8 O' O5 pnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be7 c9 V% A: d( N$ l4 G
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,4 U3 d5 n4 |, H$ P; j: [. K
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake9 p3 o, W; C) i# X. A& `) R
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,0 N6 K/ K# w5 K0 `; f
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please; ?3 X2 m! ?7 Y! L9 j( p
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
. c3 T- T0 z: S# O7 G5 Athe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.' ?( W: w& G* b3 W+ f- k
2 Q' I( ~0 F0 q, Z* n
* s9 e! {- r" l. m X
% e. b/ F C' R# o- [0 h4 h+ yFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,$ {" `: \& Q& \2 J/ o2 r/ {2 c
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com! @8 V3 {+ E7 Z+ n: K
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html, T# I( h0 i0 Y$ s `
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