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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
e( q9 A0 `# {: B7 y; m9 x+ M TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
) @5 S; N/ U( V+ Tcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
; k# ], |# Q1 t, L8 W9 sas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging+ o1 n* I A5 `2 j: `2 ?) M! T6 I
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
, S, k+ P) Q' L1 L' Wand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more! D, g2 D0 m- l# [- |3 `
upbeat.
6 K8 ?3 X$ R& r+ p Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded' w$ {" s) f0 V( f3 [
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects% |0 L2 w6 B9 G7 U/ k
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real1 `2 }, v+ d: A9 d4 ?: S" j# c
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company" V+ h0 G Q1 ^. {, E
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.- S3 L8 F S! n" }3 w! a! T/ ^( K
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
9 f q6 L: Q% \+ D7 A6 y, Vincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.; r, B2 |# ?: Z7 m: I+ ]
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian$ H1 f* V$ y* k! e' a( q1 N
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment" p% T0 b& ~+ p% Q! ^
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
6 v, l; h8 [* _, m( {+ sbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record+ f) j, o& B# Q b: i! R
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
q; y9 ?# P8 G) `/ }: ^& { According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
9 v. g& I% |0 D+ Lborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game& l8 H( @/ L9 N1 c q, Q
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey/ y: G @- `& x5 v Z0 A! i
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US1 _2 U" a; H1 y( b: V0 N
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
+ F" w9 R" T( @; @very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.9 h5 O* z3 s/ M* T1 b& t
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
7 q, Y* L( J7 qrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% f: a' R$ W! e, C7 Q$ {
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land: x, M+ a* _0 N( U8 X& {
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country! h6 O! U: y) f, o( Q1 [
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating Q# w! U8 D" V( E
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
, m- ~- } Q( V3 C3 Xresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to3 V w5 K) ^+ c! f, m( h
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and; i& [ m# n* B1 O8 Q: E4 H- V* O
single-family housing looks overpriced.
& R' A, A- C& H2 J0 L$ m4 E7 E Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with4 b+ s; }8 z5 f7 L+ e ?, E9 j6 z
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian) O) f) G' ^$ X) k9 ^) L
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push; ?3 G: g8 p' C- L4 ^" H
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
! _# X. R/ A7 I: e) O4 j vnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
$ s4 P8 \! H( G! Hand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental" g* ], k$ d4 n
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary, U' M- w2 R3 j9 M$ b$ ]
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing% i3 M& v$ ` h* G
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
( v& i% R) b! v) ]4 \, l0 }# l0 rthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
6 R' K6 s% `8 N! Win other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
$ ~1 H8 i8 E2 e( o. ]' x$ p+ Q% G( x2 D( M* h- k# S
Canadian Markets to Watch) R. {, y5 O4 @) D% i: {8 g3 Q/ I# }
' P4 }! k j& K; y$ | The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central6 `6 e R5 X2 T3 Y! B( X$ h
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour& q* w: @/ w. s, w1 p
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back" u& N- \ \4 s
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in) y1 o+ [4 |9 k4 i: j
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical* x, a' J9 D, Z6 }2 K, q- @
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
$ `& I O* q7 K( p* t; X8 xwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
; P5 x3 G( U' t% i' Zprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain- ^+ c: O/ q: n9 U, }6 u
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.2 t7 q8 X( B& ^+ e9 h
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high2 W* p- q' z8 w4 S
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.1 p1 j* o0 p9 g& f) R) i: E
9 q6 j% `7 s7 H0 f3 x Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
4 ~) e: A+ U: X" @boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a- o+ w3 b1 z! r4 x! S# V
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,, a+ ?' l6 |7 J% a5 I; ^
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
: X+ O9 S; s3 W$ p' A1 ~5 b3 _! NFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale2 }$ j7 p: _6 f2 E+ E
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the, G* s: p8 a. t0 B
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays. S' P* J5 O- Y+ I
strong, this market will continue to do well.) k/ ^8 b4 F; U) y0 z9 c9 K4 x; e' t
, I8 d( X, D8 ^, | Vancouver; d) t& ^7 i2 i
: K5 u1 U9 \( K8 B9 ] Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
" Z6 o' A. P r2 L& ^( s! @) L! Z. zbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
% h4 e+ {) n( x; z3 ~! r# {real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the4 l _6 s8 Z' n! y' @9 s% I* r8 P& h
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a! Y @; o8 d' \0 G
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy: w& `) ?, s4 ?; E" Z7 W9 q
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
9 F+ A# b0 B8 q( ffor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
2 g1 Z1 b, k `# A% Q3 ~& E- S) Bfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very0 l7 Y# _+ Y2 C9 v
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto" @% b5 G. O6 M! A; K- j, `' F
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
6 F6 n% Q$ F2 C0 E9 _manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is' z7 r+ ~/ i# X4 \
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing. @" W6 s, c3 k. G9 t
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.. ]; w5 ^# D7 o
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square% e/ S3 n1 n( S# m* |
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
6 V, }! T/ Z: p6 N u ^" H6 gApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
$ m7 }+ }! V: P/ s! r$ y- @
+ e. g9 }0 x( v" g+ [ j Montreal# M" `- V1 X! y! L6 _; w. g
5 `4 t. E; Z0 t' B Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
# ~' J/ C' w4 `4 _6 Lgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
- G# E+ m* a1 V. yshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
/ H3 o/ p7 h" b. Y: yCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
, s7 F: {5 ~- |: ^9 Q, k1 [sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
4 _3 p( y3 F8 O0 Hhigher as a "hold" recommendation.: _/ V# x" u8 ^0 S# u! C; O
3 ?* m+ Y1 u& H3 b9 x
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years: {) y! l( i8 _# a. n
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy$ R2 r4 ~1 H/ U: v
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
1 V+ S# f9 g* P, Lnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest$ K6 u* U q: i% U2 z
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
" D2 k2 x- a, H6 i2 z) Dprices."0 w6 Y! W0 E5 i+ w. G, J2 T" a+ ?
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
; ^! ~* r: J+ `8 ^: Fwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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% n5 o! [. b" }& k* c PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,4 B* \5 }7 P" ?9 ]
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
- W" E7 u% G3 _clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
; V' k/ g. D3 x9 I, z8 Wacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop8 ]. \' t8 n) p$ b8 s4 J7 X* _
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of- [& N. N+ X( ~: k. J) O. R
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its- I+ m# m0 S; o( ^8 s' J2 V b
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the/ z" c, V0 ^/ F9 q r: t
country.! Q8 m) A7 X* W6 z5 R
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
; z& s% d9 L! u) v9 s( P9 @5 Klimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
& c2 Z( |0 g% E" |$ d3 E& LPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,0 l& g0 F5 f/ `9 y3 [; A+ w, Z7 x
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.7 B: f4 h# z9 N
- Z! s$ H: B4 |! i6 V" b( k
About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and# S% X/ y7 m6 v( U5 r+ C
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide/ @" p& E3 E8 P9 R
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
1 V$ V0 o2 u3 I3 v6 k0 Y. L8 T/ lthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
& G/ Y4 `7 A& }5 pthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development5 k6 {+ }& i+ ]- q% ?
disciplines.4 C. C% m7 h) G
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.; a: z6 j1 D$ G, ]3 U1 F
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District8 L7 a& Z" T* h* c
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
" G- b1 ^. m$ k% W4 I3 J$ \now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
* V9 e P& l% G$ d9 ahosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
+ G4 H' R6 [1 t4 \8 I2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake1 ?& F% N( x; d" g: v: }) z
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,: r3 N( [1 U( k' x
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please( {# H% S/ e0 B
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
4 c9 }7 o: ~$ w, E1 [) g/ j5 Q4 ?the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
& q9 E- H, m% x* Z, N+ b2 t7 X h- J! Y2 H2 T6 e
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,: V7 P$ d/ g5 |) [% G9 j
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
- n4 \5 C+ ^* F+ U* v# L7 \http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html9 V% @8 U' T7 e x: z3 l% K
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