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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ' _1 v2 x; f9 L8 Q
: C, a$ R3 R. u; f1 P* _# vDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat & @* h. S. O$ i0 }
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US& V8 n" s3 Y/ Z, \9 z* d
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
7 {8 e2 l7 j* O3 j$ eas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
' S, X* T4 z: l3 P; u. q [4 DTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
/ U' `8 z: G/ N+ y- u; b1 Xand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more8 T' Q6 g/ J8 w+ t# B# n8 l7 T7 [4 v
upbeat.( V# m1 q& T: c9 L
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
( i! `7 k. q# t' I& r6 J7 Fannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects1 L% M( C( j; o
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
7 m$ c. K) n# q, Yestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
$ s$ [0 K, `4 n. N( l* q0 t! jrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.4 k% X5 S- K: ?# S) R( j6 D
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world9 A9 c( B: @! ?* G, R5 [7 l
including Asia Pacific and Europe./ B- b% ]9 _5 ?8 h- p2 r7 y
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
" |0 N/ H/ }0 aReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment1 G" B# [6 ~& |8 q0 `2 `
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to4 b9 J, A5 v. D2 E
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
- n. P# v$ _4 x$ }$ f/ z" Ghighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
- n$ r, e4 j* W( D* R% [ According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the2 _' Z2 _% _& B! F7 S4 l! \/ {; r
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game% n, B0 Q% _: u: C
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey+ K F: |; ]6 @) V7 O/ L
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US$ D) p+ v4 d5 t/ j: b: k; D' O
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
$ M/ ~% X. [( z5 y9 J, kvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
7 f& h- C/ ?9 j2 N The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian6 @8 w8 Z4 D7 P( b% ]5 j
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
& a" @5 m% O% mcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land- Q; w9 a, B* u" G3 [. C2 r) e
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
: v( M0 y* i5 h9 ]4 Eespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating. j( G' b3 c9 b4 q( n6 Z/ M
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The1 m h1 r$ g+ E. Z( m5 w0 }8 w
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to" T+ {# E% [% Y( `" C
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and) H$ b9 H: z# M7 ]% x7 ^, s$ \
single-family housing looks overpriced.% k0 B1 v$ n4 m) q
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with) w5 F0 b6 g3 V. y2 c4 C5 V
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
$ s' l# P% X; u# q: t4 ametropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push/ `! i; \" G' L! C) ~+ E5 g
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
7 c7 p9 y' L5 o1 {( }& f8 dnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,6 N9 e+ S% B& H; r) o
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
% F s+ g0 R1 N. ]# `- t- p- }apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
2 I0 t; v% b- L$ U Awestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing: `: o' I0 E1 `
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into! f0 f, n9 T! {6 V) j7 {
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development1 C; V/ X" S. [+ g6 G% u
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
: g- E' w( p, i: G% O9 N/ J. \
. b! g" f+ e! b1 L+ t Canadian Markets to Watch
8 M w* Y- x7 L6 Q9 Q0 R
0 a$ B8 G. h7 ?% q+ a The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central2 m8 h. Y; b$ J; r. j9 z
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
' m( O# O' A( d2 pneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back& k# T! c8 z* u4 Q% w
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
& ^4 ~& C! ^' [" P. \' d* y# n4 V) Cdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
( u' Y" [; e0 R5 X3 wprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out7 N2 y- M' w3 ^9 ~$ d* w, m' ~+ S
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
9 o" N% i) S3 t8 n) Lprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain: c9 M' `- k; l' W3 c5 r9 `
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.7 U# [' r. O% D5 I
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high. J0 F& w7 M/ \2 I
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
, l8 n* s3 d0 o7 x4 H9 _4 [4 ~6 Q5 J z# P" f& E6 P u0 E
Calgary/Edmonton- W& |% J0 o" U8 ?8 i
6 |& k$ u6 s/ V7 U
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one$ U: i9 Z# z5 A8 g2 L& C
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
- o1 g; j" D4 N) K( d z1 R" f3 @buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,9 D( }4 r* C9 @( z" x/ C
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
+ e( I& }* X, a8 }$ `" xFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale- ~5 b0 P( ]) L0 t. K. M
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
+ v* @6 N9 E$ Q) ]+ m! r2 QCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays" ?$ E" t. K+ P( ~2 i" z' q5 w
strong, this market will continue to do well.
. u; y& p4 @# B7 i$ M
" H- d- m3 D" o! c/ ]) O Vancouver$ X% x: B, w8 U
/ |* ]; S3 N6 \5 ^( h3 P) T2 M Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
" ?2 P5 D8 C! L; Cbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
# M1 D }! I$ t8 `# Q* J7 e8 breal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
& y$ C0 m5 ^2 q* d9 @- ^+ u o* p, emarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
3 E! S" U. {* U; V: d3 {growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy- w, b, b0 [9 U0 ^* Z
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
, G, m6 K1 u& g# vfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%2 \: _4 M5 J I' b
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very$ q& C' L d* E% z; P
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.0 k: @" R8 J8 K+ R
7 m7 R" c. d# [7 T8 z$ @% J Toronto( h8 x+ `" Y# [1 j8 T: J
$ |( [- G3 n8 S( a4 C
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
+ r, c2 s0 \% q) `manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is$ w( G; j1 q1 O+ n. D- b ]
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
" t- V) w# r) D- S( H, t( qindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum./ l+ ~8 }* \' {3 A- p0 _
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square. r% @$ z4 }: G9 \& P8 @ ^2 P/ N
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and% k2 I/ e3 {- P; k( i1 A6 ?
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
: Q6 K& Z0 I- A. J' C* F& v" U g0 w& Q* h; y9 J8 K
Montreal
# p8 ~( O1 |' e# @8 j5 X4 k! F7 T6 l7 M; W8 z; P
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall4 I, N) s1 K+ n/ a
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
- e4 j* X* k/ v$ ^* W. r" }# eshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
- L) D* F' d7 x# {# S! i, \% ^1 LCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate& w' _, l/ d/ F) Q' O0 C
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors# U- s0 r3 d* L. c" K
higher as a "hold" recommendation.2 n# L( l/ [, `; X4 Z
" I; v. O8 k$ b
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
& l7 D# f( E3 r, binclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy- K% ]( u2 P7 g
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
' o9 n9 B/ p% F# t: a B% wnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
5 X4 y' a- `1 E! i$ e; _overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current3 {3 f/ @) c& s/ G) ]9 Z
prices."( F3 A4 S r! G+ u
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
# Q% b! s3 }# z1 y& Wwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
( ]2 c7 J% w+ r" ~- Q- n! j/ n7 _# D* R. d0 b
About PricewaterhouseCoopers; c3 X* ?/ L6 C* I9 V; v' ]
5 Q3 ]( i5 c; x6 `( a PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
9 p3 [% S1 M: x( a' `tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
8 D6 ^8 |/ [% b/ z' a" w# e8 Tclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
6 v. T+ R$ I2 T( O+ D4 gacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop/ f9 \5 w6 K3 Q8 C6 g7 v- t3 h
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
: q" ~2 @5 f" D# k/ N* Dexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
% N* D6 _" @' Crelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
1 Z: P% r8 H- D0 W/ Q2 a! ~! [0 @country.
" ~) f* Z. X3 U$ ?: U0 K "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario5 Y2 [! ]( m, b \; O u
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
" |, G1 S; r! Z$ a- KPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,- k4 \/ h3 M' ^2 }9 |! }& P
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
: I7 i, A; F- q8 J. Y+ W/ J# b' e- R+ p9 @2 d: j2 I7 Z. g% M
About the Urban Land Institute3 K8 g& |6 H( ]/ `4 j
. F% d. D# ^! S, o" @' h* y, X The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and( b; d+ U/ ?3 _' r) e1 S* B: t
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
, Y( ]# G2 i4 tleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating5 [5 ]( [7 `& `8 m
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
, W7 H0 r" }) ~1 qthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development1 u8 g9 w5 O7 E' M+ P2 d) \8 c
disciplines.
0 w9 ], D0 V3 [) j+ z3 | The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.' _4 ?3 P+ j0 p. ?( m
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District& z" |2 [# ?4 i: k, j/ J+ Z& k, g. e
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
: N- R) _, c+ ^& Tnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be7 ^, h: N) c7 q) }' T
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
( ~0 t- s1 ]: F5 |- i \1 j2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
M( j9 k$ `: U- nHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
& w. L( V: [# W; S2 K7 Z5 DPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please3 J6 ~& P) i0 Y
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
1 @: _" ]: S+ O) m3 W3 g; F# b, m, Rthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
6 @0 l! X: d2 S9 B) E
7 i/ n9 K/ Q1 e* T
6 |% w2 H7 M; S( a: n8 A
0 A, ^- F' |$ QFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
. J$ F8 M1 u& O8 b4 p# o(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
4 D( _4 \: ^0 n- Fhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html8 N+ r3 O9 U$ G, O4 N: i# ^
# K# l" ?4 G: x* h0 g[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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