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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ( y; r2 D5 ~! e- Z
* E% V* J9 Y- g# q# Y9 uDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 1 s% D$ u# p8 H& l5 Q
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US! u, `, {2 v; ?$ c8 h& r# p
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern5 {+ p" m" y" R( Z, u
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging& ^7 D! e! C; q C ^
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)$ \, K- c) S/ `8 K; ?
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
+ U7 Q1 A, S6 Oupbeat.
. { O8 B9 a" o4 @6 j: n" y Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded7 ^, d) q; J( u* T" c
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
4 `1 Q: T6 T( Z1 E: finterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
% |5 y/ _# c" H5 c: westate experts, including investors, developers, property company$ `# v* E2 e4 N% a4 j/ F
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
& t+ `$ L! t. j7 VOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
$ _. T8 \6 D# x+ {including Asia Pacific and Europe.# H2 m6 e3 W' \8 ^) T0 u$ h$ t4 ] X: c
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
+ V$ i1 q- s% n5 Q* G8 |) \Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
( R" U& ~- j8 menvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to: l" F, ~- k4 j X* E
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record' Z5 C4 _' C/ A! w D1 T
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."+ {- u% C* S0 j& w0 q7 q$ W9 u
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the' `, M: v! N9 B4 v0 S N( I8 H
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game* K/ ]1 M% q' t* q' r! @9 C8 R( z
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey- {6 W0 u, v) ?, j2 u8 _& T& Z
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US9 V% o7 {8 b- R8 |3 Y
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
K. S) a# r0 lvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
% n; `* c! Z8 ^5 ^4 K- ] The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
2 G u$ y3 a( m+ lrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% U+ x3 i2 D9 {# h# i3 J, }
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
/ }9 ?3 n- w7 C; n$ Tdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
$ a5 e' [' M# H3 s# `6 f: Hespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating8 t, [' r+ V0 p3 c7 @8 |; ]" a
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The0 q9 U s3 }2 A! M% S* @
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to! L0 y, t6 ^" Z6 o/ c
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and8 G1 N& o, }6 \( v
single-family housing looks overpriced.
( w j# X1 I. i Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
8 b4 F- T2 V# u+ Mtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
) r$ I& {! ^/ b& X" s- Imetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
! _) z5 }5 I# E1 h2 D: Xhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting( z- O/ K& ^# P
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
, A0 @ v) D: f/ T, mand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
/ }9 N4 @; }5 Y8 Q$ Q5 o0 w/ b7 _- Mapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
! i9 U( K! p4 D& g8 Bwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing- ?+ v# N. q# y, n7 v4 w
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
, Y. w8 |7 C% C1 L" h! ~6 Athe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development2 [4 O" v# L, V# \% t
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
5 e' \# J1 f! M! H2 J% P* t5 a& w! g7 b- ~8 b! o% r1 j
Canadian Markets to Watch$ b* x& Z7 N1 f: R, ]& U+ k% q' t6 K: W Y
2 X* G" ~# ~& ]" y4 s/ y/ r: ?
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
a) L6 f5 |& ~6 ^* Jcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour/ P* b" G7 Q$ @8 X
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
. k# s1 ~$ A& _, y$ p0 j- R& Zinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in3 ~( F$ S# f4 [
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
" A8 R+ q7 _( x. Aprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
/ ?8 ]- E+ k* u5 c }7 B: rwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment/ t( k6 t' I8 m2 w
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain% w5 V% P& \& M; r& K
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this. y; m* z( P$ U# m( E& b% y6 _
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high& A2 _+ C( c5 b: r' M$ Z
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.+ y1 M9 R, K" h! J6 N( m
- e% m5 Z; a& T2 A1 Z, y Calgary/Edmonton
, p2 |3 Q& D8 [/ S9 M
, \ f3 L. q3 q: O r Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
. m' A& N& e8 n1 ]8 \boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
5 D* p' p) ] B# {8 M% m# pbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,8 \) k) C; r0 e% ~4 s6 V. ?
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.7 ?5 w3 `8 y7 Q+ D( X, f
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale2 q8 G; B+ T5 m% i' r! r
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
. Y6 ]5 H7 Y+ L) m1 L4 NCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays2 w, [5 r6 j8 I; Q# s3 ?* R! \2 p
strong, this market will continue to do well.
" y; D3 Z0 w6 o. G5 }* G8 y3 N8 s- ?
+ y, T5 R1 C; i! ~: r Vancouver0 W) I3 I5 Y1 V+ c/ ?, {3 Z6 J1 U
" L: ^* U$ c. t r# E
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
; m4 x1 S) K9 o$ ^% Z( @: Ebooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous, u8 O, L$ @: Y7 q
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
" p0 ]) O/ p( g3 Smarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a9 V( Y' U0 H' e
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
! d) `# C: U0 S) K, R6 x6 m8 r* Orecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
5 a7 I/ f+ Z2 D5 Gfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
; n2 D7 m% {1 xfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very7 q+ O; U5 P+ e! R9 h- i
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.% y' p' }; y! P, I- G1 }+ j& l9 a
" A% U4 t+ M% u& b5 h Toronto
& Q6 `/ S3 W, i
8 k% j: g% l$ A( \% q" I; u- c' \ Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
& o0 K6 z; g# S3 S4 p- m9 }+ ymanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is2 F0 n! ^/ ^4 I8 L* t) _( w: F
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
/ I) V; b a0 I P! O- e: L5 `industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
, N) Z+ h6 o8 H* J. ?Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
. z! y- f! o3 [7 p0 c Qfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
9 c: o! ~* ] e( p$ c6 K0 n* zApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.: j6 A) _$ P# R9 g0 _: Z- g. b1 y
C$ E0 E9 h/ W
Montreal/ G, f+ e/ @ ]( h9 _( n0 I1 E/ m
* F; a/ @) Y' ~1 c3 b* w
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
; {7 z/ e% Z' F+ A3 q$ u7 m. |' P8 dgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
! [6 L+ i2 O' [% ?shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
% u7 V7 X. j1 Z# E/ t& M8 W8 b: p1 dCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
" k9 W* {4 {; xsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
7 t2 P! |$ L: D" }. Y0 Hhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
) F$ }- c; Y: t0 q% `3 Y3 o5 N
5 |( Z( k- O" u! S$ W" g _ u The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years: ? n' x: o. W R. o4 c* M0 z1 H
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy, Z; m2 o; p& v
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos6 w: K2 r9 V8 Z/ O+ e
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
6 H$ X: u5 ~( ~. F2 y$ O1 }7 z' @overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
+ ?% [% N: K9 {+ t, d; ]- Z1 oprices." _7 N8 N/ B& _$ w
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
7 D% L2 I' ^2 V% m+ G* h" rwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre., \' V# t# W9 V3 ^
! K7 t I1 z" E5 G% [
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
1 B) H1 t4 _! F- h5 s' l0 D0 R+ \. q
$ A1 ?. K) k D0 y1 w* m6 ]( \ PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,3 D: G( P9 E0 x+ c$ \5 d o( u
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
; t' w7 s8 K& d) tclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
/ _4 O" \0 @# k' s/ J4 m Facross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
3 Q5 B- H) v- Vfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of* q- x4 ^! U! ?
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
1 \$ n h- ?* h/ Krelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
$ B4 m. P* V" E6 c1 u; b6 R/ kcountry.$ C3 f7 V# r8 L" e# k
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario: |& g$ S% H4 n5 O; B
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the( i- q3 Y' z# t
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
3 i: l+ L0 y# L. l, k. F& E' Deach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
" y8 X( o: F' Y# Z+ q8 @! Z6 ^4 W: T, q
About the Urban Land Institute9 G/ b4 ]" ~& ]( v
9 u4 X1 ^: g. g2 |$ B7 | @
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and9 u/ Y. g; z2 x: q% i
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide. N! t' j. i8 d, |
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating6 U0 I$ `5 w+ ]" n& [* Q" a7 F% i
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more2 F% f) u! P6 x$ B, c3 k
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
( n v8 P1 b' k1 W+ X1 Qdisciplines.. e4 g' B& |4 z
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.$ N. D1 k8 A0 |
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
) ^& s$ j1 y, z1 K8 d4 G' ?Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
1 ` n4 N# q7 b& d% [, nnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
9 L: F( u! |7 l4 L" Rhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,+ u( b6 p9 B0 s2 q7 B3 ^
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
, ?; A, K- F# M3 gHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,9 O, p" Y( H( \* _+ n5 t: H
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
6 h7 J: U$ N& v0 A; I2 Vcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
2 p) m1 x- h, P8 c; |' Zthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.( u) s4 n, H- i: a9 I# ?) H
# v" u% Q( L# ^$ a
/ `( H3 ^& y5 ?: d7 Y8 P6 L
. q9 l8 `; j/ ], X' oFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,: ^5 \' i8 T. k: V3 {& p
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
( O( g- i$ @' i% d3 ]http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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