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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 4 n; ~ J" A; `1 W- h l S5 _
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat j8 a0 x" R; Z4 X9 _) h" T; Z, b" A( ]
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
5 p8 G8 ^2 E( B" ucommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern5 f5 o# c2 U7 P7 w1 Y8 J% [
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
* g& C; M6 m9 z. C8 V' gTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
6 L/ p- y Y; b. F/ Zand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
, F) N, ]1 z0 k3 H9 a" c" R) Q. H6 bupbeat.
% y& E, s/ g4 _+ T' z, D Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
5 y, N3 W" H/ `! }; Zannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects% D6 R" } B! i; Z
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real9 X4 s1 b) E) f
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
W: s s; |* n6 S0 D: T6 c: Zrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
- ]- \! v- q6 b8 u+ _( z6 z; iOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
, L5 j! ?8 Z- j( U" Uincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
. h( t9 n7 ^8 A D, Q2 a According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
2 m0 W5 f7 J7 x+ p% [& e: `Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment& }* p* U* o. @7 {6 Y9 V4 V1 O+ `
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
9 Q8 ]: K& {3 V) x9 K/ Ibe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record; G# E0 M; N% J! [; F' g
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."- S/ W8 V6 @" i5 ~2 l: f
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
. c4 q1 w( J* E8 A$ n9 \- }8 jborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game0 h j7 e9 r/ ^6 c1 B5 Q
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey. Z5 q _# y0 I* j! v, n
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
/ W* b! ] \9 N: a. k- [correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
) d9 z F4 x) Z0 [8 s ^very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.- Z8 P3 n( F+ n) p7 |# r+ E
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
]/ L1 a4 J+ c$ Grespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
. b+ ?( o' `8 z# P2 Kcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land$ W' q8 ?& s! e a
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country }) F9 _1 b, I
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating/ C/ A1 [' Y9 s1 U4 _+ \# z% I
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The, M8 c( d! p0 I# R( W
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
4 C& y0 e& h6 E! B7 B- @! Ptake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and8 D2 ^ |/ x$ } {2 g
single-family housing looks overpriced.
5 I3 @8 b$ g9 |" P& ~ Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with: g4 w2 S! ^* M* D0 s0 b
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian! R2 P M6 Z' n: k
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
' z' ^; ?5 ~# O# ehigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting& T9 s G. {) H7 j$ g- P2 }
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,; M) Y+ {# c( d0 K, q
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
+ ~5 ]4 o5 m7 [apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
$ U7 w" o( T6 l# ~western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
5 a, j$ L+ n& k! N0 h Cshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into# H5 O) i" O g& g k* g2 O
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development" b6 \" K: y% O9 `4 l) {* y1 t, F
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.1 U* C7 v" b3 d- C0 J
; ]/ I4 O3 A3 W+ L) C Canadian Markets to Watch1 ?2 W) @" M% N" N: j
8 n. t9 v/ _; A* P
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
+ h6 y3 i/ q0 j! `& ocities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
1 [6 j8 L$ d4 C* \neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back+ a) U) y, A" x+ E- J
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in: d2 |4 K+ J: {0 F7 n, X
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
+ m) e/ l4 F/ _9 ?9 w" x' Jprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out7 @# `" \; F- m( w# J7 T3 N% M
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
6 C: w; j) d5 W# q, Q; K6 kprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
( p; ]1 I* Z$ R) \1 k4 Hwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.) q4 Z7 \0 m& U* r# L5 s
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
* J, E9 a9 P8 c; mratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
. K$ K6 ~2 ]2 Q7 a$ t; U0 J( ^& h, E$ z6 n" o( m: m4 a, b/ i
Calgary/Edmonton
1 g7 N& ?! @1 I; A& x
& `3 s5 G+ }% v. b/ N Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one4 t) ~# v. N, r
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
: i( d/ d L! l( ]2 Dbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,! u. [1 r. K8 b
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
% n+ j e3 u) b8 Y( N1 X# GFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale: B) Z, s. A* }7 v7 _
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the" p4 i) p H8 b) r
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays4 k! @: u4 b: e! n( l3 S
strong, this market will continue to do well.
4 {( k3 C( Y" D! E. h6 c
- P/ g# T) P/ N8 r Vancouver
; Y7 x# c. T$ {4 T
4 d1 @( N. [" Z( H) ^+ | Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
! n& Q, b k2 Ebooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
( z* b" z5 L. M4 Mreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the3 ]/ \# [, y! b# @- Q- G' m2 F* f
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
1 T4 o4 f# c* A- xgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy5 t5 j1 \5 V r- ?& k1 E
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
! Z, d: E7 J) r3 P$ u9 L( {7 Sfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%/ w4 I0 R3 _0 \' a+ u, @
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very7 E, B# o6 w! g5 p) c, P
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.5 @) d& R& {$ N- e2 T' K( {
1 v+ A# u) X) ?8 @5 G: H Toronto+ ~% z4 ?: I4 A0 G R- Y1 y
6 r* ?. D3 B, [2 i" p Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
% [5 n3 q& l( ^# A9 K7 Gmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is, I+ c1 g I+ }4 l2 U2 j5 C
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing/ e2 L8 n9 G" D' `( P$ V6 e3 p
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.9 T, u2 J$ ]3 Z9 j7 T/ K
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
! Z% y6 | f, f Afeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and6 C) ~7 E$ Z2 P6 I1 V9 |/ a
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
9 o" W5 d; c. j( E) M$ P# k" N7 {: }/ X9 x1 C+ C
Montreal
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: t& {0 u4 s, e- f Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall. w$ A4 y0 @; X. A4 f1 Q
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up ~" O$ O! F6 G" g! ?$ V! h
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in8 p7 O; D: f1 }% O$ z
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
$ w. z" [1 c" f% b, Csectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
+ N. l& ?( B; @3 ?higher as a "hold" recommendation.6 M. |, J0 _5 x/ z% X) g; p
$ Q) q% \( q8 `$ L# K! u/ R
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
& s' U+ L- O- ~include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy0 \+ `) ~6 ^/ X
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos# `& n, M8 J- S. n z, ^
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest l ~ W4 t+ s z8 B
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current; R5 _- w2 D( Q# O4 z2 Y
prices."9 P1 M) P4 I* w! Y6 F) I1 C
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
# f) B7 y M# {6 pwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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+ |. _$ O5 w+ {& `- y1 R About PricewaterhouseCoopers \' m" J, w" f, I3 w
- s* @3 Z9 x; ?* d PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
$ j1 }" _7 a; R8 }* \tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
: o+ Z4 D5 F) Y1 uclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
: x0 K6 U' C$ l; d" g" ]* F0 hacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
" o4 D8 q. g3 M- f$ p! Tfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
# \) }0 u R( q8 q( ^+ ~excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
; h4 f/ K( G" n9 X2 V6 Irelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the: ?3 Y K( P# e% d7 Y" ^4 M; s& P
country.
: u" X5 u" a' l6 n3 u, i "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario/ F# b* U' o3 t# {) R5 r t
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
; Z& i) {: P1 \ V; v& sPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,# T, [ ^4 v1 h" u
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute- X9 R. D. V6 V3 s* [: G' u
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
4 [% |( Y% z$ V# wresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide7 M; P7 V% O# _
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating5 w# ]7 c c3 \ b7 T4 h
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
9 Y7 M9 \, l1 g5 cthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
% g7 k, [: a; g; c1 v% M: kdisciplines.0 i* \4 G; b: [3 J, J
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.) B% J2 ~5 B2 E# {4 E; {. i9 B, w
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District- M% [ e% t, a
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
- ~) x9 q$ x, S) d- @ h' snow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be+ m- j3 \3 g# f0 ]) ?9 @
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
/ j. B, {, a' |: W2 I* S( L2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake- E7 {! Z. i& j
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,3 E9 I7 u! Z T# g) W' i7 ]1 |$ C4 U
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please7 N& A r: z- H8 u3 |6 X% `
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
* e( p. _) \+ b9 o4 Nthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066., _5 f3 V1 {$ Y( p% F% v
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,4 J6 N& {# a; |
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com. g3 f" j5 n0 H9 E
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html$ ?4 x9 N6 ?6 l* ^! d
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