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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 3 }% W [& ~% g7 o' A' q
0 g& i4 W0 l( ^4 NDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 9 ?2 C: Z. ] J
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US2 l5 @* t9 F% _$ }
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern, d9 ?% b: U/ s- U6 P& h
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
! ~3 L. F9 D/ B$ \/ i4 `Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)2 Z% G0 R- C- w# g
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
@# }, F( c5 e8 d$ |6 o: y# Supbeat.
3 w% t( |: ?7 X% @ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
" L: h7 V5 S, Q5 z; F% ] f* lannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects/ B+ c6 @8 }& T4 t" l! o% E
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real4 q) U- W, R. z2 T y) J( R& @
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company- e6 g0 {5 P/ M
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.( S* G2 l+ H" c- G
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
; {$ {$ W ~0 o8 aincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
. `. j6 K6 N. w* Y% `7 ^5 y According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian" G2 i6 t% v( h C, h
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment. Q" o, u8 ~1 c, v
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
7 h" Z1 z% o" r; c+ ube avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record- j* E" E# B. p: {
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
2 H8 a, G% `" Y) {0 h! @# y1 U According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
0 _' x: B/ m% C7 j' Tborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game' w+ U; H+ S6 {
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
# }9 n8 x, f. X) k" W4 \remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US. y/ F& a9 f( Z- ] M
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
% H0 P6 L3 r2 q7 M1 I5 Y; S hvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
; M/ e# \$ n# U+ y1 D. n, P& p The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian, A% q% a) o' X; ~! K5 W8 L# M7 I
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by: y X$ i4 P6 k& l$ x
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land( C' }+ t( _$ G' \
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country6 I5 B5 a( m8 K3 g# [& l& y
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
, k, M/ a R0 d! ~* v" kdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The6 N: Q0 V" N. n7 y6 Q
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to6 m: q+ v% l' h/ Z6 h/ i
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
; ]$ y: K4 z- X& h esingle-family housing looks overpriced.
2 E" }& `1 j+ U Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
% t8 ~; O9 u; ^2 y6 c6 e4 xtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
/ S: T' q6 e2 o( k* }# Qmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
V# [4 s' y+ U% ahigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting% ?2 k9 f: x1 X3 t/ Y/ X2 k& J4 m
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,8 u( j8 D9 j& u
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
5 P' r% u, S" ~# F7 Lapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary5 I' T. N- \8 u ~5 E" y9 G8 r
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
( S! z$ u5 b' C# e. I pshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into6 |, i& {& M9 q; f1 _, L, G! z
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development. X% c7 n& E% B. V
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
2 a Z" a) J4 c' q3 Y
( X. _8 M' }9 \, J f Canadian Markets to Watch
! G3 T. J& w, B2 l% ]
6 P" Y! z4 v4 O6 Y; Z The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central( E/ K/ v. B) ~. `2 i# t
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
* a p& N* ]" x* P$ A& v% Qneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
- w k ] ~) W$ h# Zinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
. Y) F! }, s* s5 B c8 H5 mdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical% ?2 b4 i+ Z+ r r2 ~
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
; j$ {) A$ K$ }9 d$ Z: N3 qwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
5 p, b8 F, }: `4 q. K: J4 zprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
# o5 I0 H$ b+ Q8 swhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
3 y2 c! j7 y5 U& V7 FToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high i- `4 p( o" N
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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7 ^$ @$ ] u( c3 [, `, o+ V Calgary/Edmonton6 M2 F+ e9 I' s' N# e
' P$ Z1 K: e6 {) }# Z
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
( L1 _9 m1 m* f, l: S% \% `boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
# N/ m7 \5 G2 Z1 |4 x+ Abuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,: H9 [) h) Q0 A; G; ~# M$ W
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property. D) E- t. |2 v
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
' z- M% I# N% l+ ^ c+ [/ a* ]: THomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
2 n8 x9 f1 m, O; e0 E) p# w7 ~Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays: D E# T: G& B, B5 |0 c# L8 t I
strong, this market will continue to do well.7 s7 {$ n" s3 ?& F. g0 k
+ R9 }2 c! [0 k% r/ ]9 s/ y Vancouver" d" t2 L' g5 @& K) p
. r! q3 n" F h7 A
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
- x5 `5 G" q6 ?booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
' d1 t) L* N6 k- C9 o4 n, m2 b# mreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the* n9 F* T/ K3 c4 y' J/ \
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a3 l! Y" t+ x/ Q- k7 Z
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy4 m5 ?& l( g# L# q# P' z0 x
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%) m6 Z0 ^. d. W
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
6 J' a( i: E% ~- M+ Yfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very2 z9 z+ ^! W7 ^; X: f
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
g1 t3 u" E. P9 Q! d. ~: F2 L& H% b7 [. @) w- ~
Toronto
. w5 E, K! B+ Q. x- I; d& U# u
/ N: k+ u9 j u Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and- e0 ~! w) e# B' R- a8 y
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is8 m! K! g" [# ]# y- p+ G9 x2 }; b8 @
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing; c# Q! }2 K6 m7 F
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.' d) \2 ~- }% Z5 X
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square, e1 Q9 Y4 [2 H
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
" C. F9 T8 g4 Y- DApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.- U: y! U% t9 @: [$ L7 I
% |9 a; D: h( H Montreal
6 ~: m/ d; b( S9 o7 l! m0 ]+ V$ Q8 D: w/ d+ c
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
. L, r4 u0 X$ O) C! K5 rgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up1 q# |4 W; g: L2 }. p
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
' b. }0 y- \+ w' g! }( V @Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate% Q3 O7 b: g, j1 ?
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
! S( W) V5 P4 Y# ^3 l" B. ]higher as a "hold" recommendation.
) J- r2 K! p2 z$ P, y' j
6 _ W2 R- m, ~: l The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years1 E/ J2 V% v' M
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
: E0 f" u2 T& N" R3 Gmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
! ^! R+ u6 v, U7 znear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest1 k! }) T4 ?1 Y( Q/ t8 F0 P/ \
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current6 v9 Z6 {: k+ ^1 b: i4 k' ^1 z
prices."
0 C3 [$ ^5 W1 h) T$ s9 Z' [ A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at6 Y0 O1 ]8 l9 S2 M; b+ h
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
3 v6 H4 m `: I
( u3 T2 p) G$ b. o4 L# b About PricewaterhouseCoopers6 I- n* W" A6 L) e1 C
1 b/ {9 \! T1 A: F R( N! O0 h PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,3 i% g# }2 R: z2 q( ]
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
0 K! Y! h8 A5 x4 dclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
2 T3 g" X" m/ yacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
6 G3 y; T& x; f" k Mfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
5 |6 n) V9 ]. \excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its- G) e" g$ N- c% J! x- V
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the0 X4 H7 R5 [/ ^) B& X( j% ?/ y( E3 ]
country.& a) f9 q) w9 a w! @; C9 N- u, V' h o
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
2 u N _* B. j$ q6 f8 V/ ]limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
9 w) p6 ]+ }! Y# `' LPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,* ~# J% `! W3 ~2 a
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.7 P5 @0 x. D2 D
' z0 o5 l8 g9 ]+ _' J$ w' E2 U About the Urban Land Institute
) B+ B8 u. i! g9 ?; R ?6 D5 o9 G
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
* O6 {% v" x5 kresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide% z! N9 H% O( G; o# O* z
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating c4 }, U% X! s3 @
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
3 Z' e. N# t9 u* n, wthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
$ Y; D5 `" K0 f$ g' [* T) \disciplines.' H! ~' M5 r) v
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
1 P; t5 H' G$ Y, M+ G# kWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District2 n" a; V# F. q0 u, d3 m8 C
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is5 k) r( t; X% K- z# X* x- q1 Y, G
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be( K% ~: l1 h3 j- Y
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
A5 A- l/ R! W9 u4 M: y/ u2 Z2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake7 ?( @6 d4 `5 n8 K1 T) v
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,4 j9 p. T, j; A: j5 D! A
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
9 t6 ^8 f$ ?2 ~6 ocall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
/ B( _% |: N8 f* K* }) Athe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
; ], A# G# l' X% y" K O# [. X
0 h o$ W+ G4 Q' q' g1 c
- ~& b0 Y1 G( w* g/ _
, q/ C& A7 M1 }6 EFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
* _$ o, s$ [2 b4 d(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com; V( ~; m4 L* |9 r
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html- C# }/ e8 b% b( ^' H
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