Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
/ v( D) a* l) `' ~* @; O2 V% }- W2 lIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
- u* u5 _' n7 Z$ q+ ]- |+ |4 X+ \
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
* X* Y  m# {2 g$ H( r8 k0 |  l' i4 O1 t
9 K4 C/ S$ E$ [Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
8 Z% i2 c& Z; w0 T; v
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

2 [) r1 I6 E& x% A1 JAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
/ b" l5 W. x5 k
' u9 j* I9 P0 eJul 2007
5 @' K" f6 z( X) B0 Y NA
. Y% k, S2 G2 y! m 2328
717
442,752
- u. u$ k4 c! q4 I 410,000
320
28
31%

2 c5 M# s9 G. N- h# L% uJun 2007
NA
0 _+ m% q6 k* a# j 2661
$ b% v: b0 Q5 t. t9 [$ G4 A 1011
9 B% f8 J. Y* r( O/ c. A/ r, w 442,817
409,000
328
  u( X' \+ n% w5 @3 A$ l. ] 22
# M0 I0 l0 y: t6 M) V# y 38%

9 [% f- ~9 `- b0 I7 \2 DMay 2007
NA
2288
1261
# u; h2 L% ~7 i+ I* A6 X  e2 l% n2 t 451,216
415,000
% Y' X- F5 `# C5 |, s 322
9 u; t9 w) {$ h! q- d 19
3 f/ |4 k5 ?3 q, p1 o9 T4 Q/ S 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
  R% w% ~5 q. D' p( K这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
' `' E( F" i  L. ?# S* x存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
' d. Z+ I4 e6 d5 d) ]鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
; B( l$ K4 ^, H2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
- z" K- C* T8 D; P8 G6 L3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
' |4 G5 S# l/ v# o& g存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

) r, m5 l5 r: R* {呵呵，太不专业了吧。

8 W4 I6 {( E) l2 {新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

4 j# i: T- A1 T' J$ U* @# g5 |就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
% [2 {5 T3 }$ Y# m3 F9 u1 R
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

/ U: T+ d. ~0 a1 i5 R* |* `% A; f

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
" p* _* j/ o) v4 R' D. v. m! y+ vDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
9 I% `$ x5 M4 R/ o, k' x2 qIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
" L2 i7 q  f- f* |How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
8 p( Y5 D- x; c8 _That is what i say half full or half empty.
6 F8 ^3 ?' K  {' o+ ogood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
/ a/ _( a( a. bHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

3 U2 ^- C, F; @/ i$ C3 a' ]I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
2 `" {( i! w0 }# cMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
% H0 o8 ?! D" s! a" z' f: v; H: cIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

4 F, ~2 V7 _$ A, a8 KQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


- {: s* e) x% Q7 j& x3 M: M" aI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
! H8 B- s! O4 N7 g

: @0 t9 ]4 ~8 _! F; w- f+ x0 c
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
% m6 g3 P8 I8 u1 f% {4 }看来，观察days inventory 更重要。