Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
; f) ^3 d  u$ u* B' y: e. n2 N: p6 DMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
! N, f% T6 \5 b) E1 CNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
( \, c$ o! |$ |1 t* S. o
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
; r5 v( Q( q, C. {* e: u) M$ }0 z0 d
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
0 u) s+ o9 m: W+ X- U$ C
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
0 M  _1 u6 v/ b& w5 _5 S8 Z* V 2328
6 _8 I) M  b5 N' d# [2 P8 A+ \ 717
8 M& W" |: p0 w. i7 {! f9 q 442,752
410,000
320
28
31%

8 B2 n/ \# d/ P; H4 D) L) BJun 2007
+ _; L3 o: ?1 e4 n# Q# O6 \6 n NA
2661
1011
0 [$ s# H0 ~* @" ] 442,817
409,000
0 Z1 R7 `7 d$ L- ^$ o% v 328
22
38%

! b$ p1 s8 V* y$ J( h( N, O0 hMay 2007
NA
2288
% ]$ w2 l- t4 k% j 1261
451,216
415,000
# L% B4 ]* l$ o$ F# M 322
19
) v3 Q. W6 Z0 \ 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
4 M7 k6 T* {- j/ G) r这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
' C) k1 _4 i8 b: Z存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

; h1 N- I9 o% j- l用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
  \, a3 E# C: @% u$ I9 q' x2 M1 J2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
4 O' P/ ?! [' P: k存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
2 m/ y! v/ r9 _' ]7 ~$ w鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
& d* v! @. l- K' [3 m7 Q
$ s' L5 K6 j% v/ ?$ R; \新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

, S' O6 w! q2 K4 p  n就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
5 k' u; l& w( w$ L2 n) d9 \) W8 i
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
7 y9 U; Q' J* T. y) qDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

' n5 Y/ ?3 I0 T) e8 m8 @' T' |
* j6 S/ b5 ^. s; C6 I

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

+ b9 s; `7 `1 r* k1 g0 V

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
3 w! s- e' K5 s# r% zThat is what i say half full or half empty.
8 t5 e1 f+ b5 f, tgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
: q( ?& h- d0 ^5 n; n$ d/ Y1 oIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
! O9 K3 Z  N$ |+ MIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
3 Z- j0 d8 Z6 _0 J, ]* RHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

1 F6 g7 y- L) n; b
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
) O( E8 n9 D* x2 V$ V0 c; tEdmonton Single Family Home
9 @7 V; Z% N) D$ U5 c- TMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
* j- ]7 I; O. l- A5 g9 R7 PNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

) [; }9 |7 P$ c$ y0 ]# M

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
9 b% F* _0 S- K1 t1 L0 H3 f, ^3 ?' n2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
& |( B" U7 f5 E  d1 A4 B: m# F3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

$ G8 h7 P' Q' w4 u  }0 `  j$ e  \2 s7 t
! A2 O6 W5 w' l7 U下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
) n+ S. Z4 l) S2 p, s6 R

" n6 A. G) R/ Y+ V+ G4 B
% l* K5 r  I6 I% ]  Z只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
2 t( T. @5 R* R6 x+ ?看来，观察days inventory 更重要。