Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
) ?- e. H2 r% I& QIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
+ U$ C4 d3 z0 \0 y
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
1 ?5 L" f  E# `% z# o
  U( h) c: E" r6 i% D  d- H2 TOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

3 [4 D1 P. ]* V7 o  vSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
& o' i2 j. q+ H  A% n7 J* S% I
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

; v& Y) x& ]3 w( c, n9 mJul 2007
7 @* E/ h9 ~/ o8 j* U( C8 C2 m- v NA
2328
717
1 o3 w5 m6 o. X, {, y 442,752
7 V( E! C# V) @* f9 \ 410,000
320
28
' |% s2 k: M4 K) v8 c4 n! O/ n 31%
! P' u9 {4 e0 g, o8 B
Jun 2007
' a) r8 [$ m3 U$ o6 [ NA
2661
0 F' t. o0 ~* {# L& h& A 1011
442,817
409,000
9 q3 Q$ {* ^% H 328
22
38%

6 m8 |7 u- Y7 _3 D  k# SMay 2007
& o) P  p7 Y* X. q! p NA
1 n8 q  G" {  _. l+ s3 l 2288
1261
451,216
415,000
' ~+ W+ C& ^4 x 322
19
2 w1 Q+ M  s  `, p" m$ K- L 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
2 `* [& N" M6 b3 {存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
, U' Z6 V* e! h7 k+ `3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

6 q* p: u7 V4 L呵呵，太不专业了吧。
' I; I& r( k1 x( R' d+ O
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

: d; W: \7 s5 ]& ^2 T; N2 a  k这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
  M8 c( l1 X* J  bDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

8 ?/ |& q) [  n4 N  B/ i

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

1 W1 o! \- Z% m2 [6 }$ }7 g

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
1 @& \$ G) V; Y  l4 O! I# iIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
4 E. \7 B% \* e! W/ N- VHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
$ n" r+ _5 S1 A( V4 H" ^- sgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
+ o0 Q' [! n6 zIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
! ^5 H4 S& E9 ]2 yIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
8 k7 g- h. M. P* n3 n& H$ ZHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

& Z9 f( o8 \. U% _1 S; tI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
. e/ h2 V) [. z6 s$ p7 QEdmonton Single Family Home
+ R8 S' f, X6 H$ h4 {: @MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

! h' F$ P7 I6 q" MQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
& b9 W+ V+ K/ t: Q* w7 E" x2 J

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1 U+ o% |0 ]; l* d% L1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
( K9 E0 V9 M+ c' Q6 T" H+ F# g# `2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
; j/ j! n7 s: O5 _" s1 K3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
# P2 u" g7 ~* m7 F
+ g: r% }/ T. ~" K

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。