Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
' O, z5 s* m3 Y! DIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
+ h% R  E1 `9 \' Y  G- p. w" O$ XNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
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0 w8 Z' {1 D9 fOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

2 C6 v6 o6 p$ w2 WSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
( u6 C* }2 l, W! k
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
3 A) F. d2 q, h- X! h' H
Jul 2007
* ~+ K" L4 a$ [. A5 x NA
2328
- k% c' b0 x* [  k+ P) s7 [ 717
442,752
410,000
320
28
( j  \1 I1 j+ Q$ m 31%
; Z7 `) w8 ]" X
9 H. b5 f% p- f0 f1 Q) D  Z' nJun 2007
NA
# A, Q+ q3 \+ c4 n" T# v 2661
. r+ y; d! L! b6 N6 S 1011
# M: @2 R+ n  }- ` 442,817
0 G( T* x' x$ V- o; s. O( g" v 409,000
328
5 F# W) i( C- h6 q9 J* ] 22
  c0 j/ K8 }6 L0 r* R0 [) y) K 38%

May 2007
, L8 p+ m/ `- R& Q' L NA
2288
  h) I/ _& X+ P+ V 1261
451,216
) X. R$ t* L9 v7 f! I# z0 c% b% f: Y; | 415,000
2 J$ q: p# n" g; u: v 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
, y. F2 |+ [+ f: d& d/ e5 \这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
7 `$ f. @7 Y( `; I" I1 Y鉴定完毕！

$ z- M9 h8 e5 b8 g
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
' p. j' b! b) O: R# s3 S3 }2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

' I5 s% A! E/ N: T. \, w8 x
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
" h- ?* C% u( m! {
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
' Z# G/ ], R5 `& j0 QDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
0 J; V- w7 m) [$ f* e% \How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
6 N8 ^. [( E' vIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

( D5 \4 j# J/ r7 b7 F0 `4 [4 FI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
. V$ I' v- i1 \) q3 SEdmonton Single Family Home
. N' ]" p! H( u# r! aMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

3 F8 N( q0 `, E0 b4 EQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
7 g3 t& h2 X- Y: b; \* v- n1 m9 d
" L4 E. ~; a( }" v5 L6 d2 N% W
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

& E+ b; g1 G5 K

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
: f. f3 X! B6 V, C8 R4 K3 y2 z1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

  }5 M! S7 B2 ^4 K8 A/ T
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
7 O4 y1 m. ]0 m: I: E" N
5 X* a' I8 b. ], q2 |! b
. L; g/ `; {4 {# J* ~# z' A6 @& J
: ~9 F9 b3 C! z; J9 m# F+ h. T只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
- G2 |6 p% \" D3 o9 G  Q9 H* B# r. m看来，观察days inventory 更重要。