Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
+ z3 `/ w6 m8 @3 c5 a$ R9 ZNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
3 }! r+ I9 a# T, y) `1 ZIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
5 `) H3 e0 ~5 }# {TD can give you 4.2%.
: L6 |+ ]; X7 ?) rBMO can give you 4.3%.
RBC can give you 4.0%.
7 g: P2 g; O! ^7 I) u8 }6 ]2 R( v(Roughly)
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
4 [8 F6 {  j1 I% N, U, J; A2 L3 I- TAlso, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
Also, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
- Z! M: Q6 B3 g" E0 u2 F" |, gFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
Rough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
# _9 g6 Z# ]% W! h$ x  w5 o; b& }Buy 10000 US cost you 105000
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
" Z9 M6 h( q" X0 Y- ^2 `9 hIf US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
9 X! [: c1 E/ B) `1 }If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.
# I6 r% N4 {5 F5 U; S+ d5 p# H
' u; B7 E0 c8 n1 tAll above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
$ j2 y: q0 o5 d0 h' V! B* [$ e7 S$ B) {( S

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
/ V: k! @# n: i9 rNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

2 V- T# u$ z& V' ]这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
  Q8 a# G1 _, X如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
1 C4 v! y6 Y, _0 g* S, n7 P9 E政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
  X: ]% ^. F3 f& X: x% iBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?

& H8 x0 {# }- ^4 J7 p呵呵，多打了个0。
- n: B9 w' f2 n! c) h& r( a
0 T( t/ L" n' b9 ^& R0 D" b多谢。
" k% z* X, i( G& I5 P* t- t
- }/ V$ f- q# N- x把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
- ~$ K" r) U) ?4 I, l. S我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
& }1 D8 E$ L1 O5 x8 a3 G, j% c: |  }2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
  ^! x% u: W. M9 O* A. z% z如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
* }3 }1 z3 l; D! B而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
& D2 t5 h  v# Y政府也会需要钱。 ...

4 J! B: x( D/ V; a, O0 W" D但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
9 v% l/ S  g2 Q" Z
" D' W9 c" Y4 Z# S% R4 A现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
" _" f! g8 V' V6 W6 r如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
1 j' f  ]/ ~: f' f4 B% G, }你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
4 J- {$ S+ t4 N' L如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
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: r* o. I" L% A6 M& ^[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]