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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts) v @* ]9 A3 n7 j
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET& N: {. K1 y% x& B7 I# j8 Y; Z
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2 q: i x: D8 C% XLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
3 D1 X! u) J" S. vBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.! I ]7 X, |# P$ h- L% y/ y
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1 m6 h$ D: ^: V9 BOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.+ K$ K- t& O$ b" d6 c* c' O
3 o: r1 C' v3 P! g* GThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.3 }6 f/ P: b7 i! l- y; ~* q
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.” a$ I1 r/ n; Q* H2 Q0 r! \+ X# g
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.0 M/ y- F" |2 h6 i4 a5 E4 i
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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9 e) s. d1 U9 e" M2 Z6 U. xAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.1 F1 I6 s4 f4 ~1 A6 ]% ^
- v. v6 }3 Y5 J, p' DHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.# J" n: P2 a" |' e. |1 Z
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.- n7 ]) j# B ]# Q+ f% s
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& Q2 Z- A1 X. n; @9 HCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
+ G! F0 W% S& S& S* N! ]' m1 y! TCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
6 _/ h4 c) g7 kThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over. q% y* O. y4 c' |' M4 T+ s1 k
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.5 B! a: S) f: J7 [) V
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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7 Q% M+ ?8 s5 jCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.8 R0 c, B. S8 [
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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( }% ?9 u' d' q9 O) h* WThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.3 ^3 _3 R, v8 T7 Y1 [
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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5 {2 A+ c3 t# y4 X3 z, D) O6 XThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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9 v4 u- c& g. _4 W' X; O5 F“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.- M8 Y' D9 c$ h) e. a5 h! f+ } Y
/ q+ z% m4 L3 U' o `- p“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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