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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts: k% V2 H. @5 @ U! W4 g+ B0 c
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- w3 I3 X# q5 P( yGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET, J8 O( m5 A' T, S2 X- R! s7 m
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; ~* U; |& q+ u7 c8 e2 z1 HLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.% ?) u% s, |0 L$ u) X- I; g$ i
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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2 W2 w5 U: l3 X1 v4 ^9 J' \0 {+ eOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.9 ^7 z# u6 {: f, Z. i. `
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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1 J' {; `. B4 c- TIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”5 I+ W# U& Q) M5 k- f' N, t
$ ?: e: }6 O8 q2 H) e$ DMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.4 G2 K+ C; k1 f* a1 D. X& @& u
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.: g/ ], m2 S6 l& H, c$ i6 H5 z
) I0 [/ }/ e+ U! ]% Q+ ]! SHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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! ~; y# [. m5 @( V: E) t7 R7 B& n& p; ARelated
8 b. G& t. d$ C( x8 [( R3 {Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns. n9 \6 L6 ]1 z9 M
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’1 k( o7 k, \% _3 N. ~
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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$ T1 k7 l6 u @2 M) t, u& ]The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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1 W3 q( V: c1 j0 m' D# r“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”) \2 y, S$ i+ _' m" t, {
8 I! P2 D' q) L- n% yFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.! E0 v* c3 K+ [0 R$ d
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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1 Y" k; Q* t/ T9 B& D0 }: cContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010." k% }, e- \0 i8 g4 w5 l* }+ H
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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* e% O" E5 c; f" K" c& BMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.+ v* O7 \" o. x0 S
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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# D" ]. \0 x9 O" L" c4 K! @/ \“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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