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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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3 O+ O X8 n" r$ p% M5 X$ L/ XGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET: j6 \* x; s7 n3 V* `2 V: M
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
8 e; _; A' ]* EBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants." G0 C& {8 }/ c
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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9 B& N0 s& U- x/ t* K% K) Z) dThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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( W$ o* Y% e& M2 C$ Z“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.1 F W( S7 K8 |8 H$ d8 @% |9 v% O
7 m$ z A' Z# c, |9 P4 U9 c9 J1 ~However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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/ c3 P0 ]* d9 [$ m, M/ ^In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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$ _1 P0 V6 P' C! e6 ?! \Related
# f8 Y$ T/ l, o/ G' ~6 E; t* X$ E$ GCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
{* h6 L. ] V* X% S1 y" uCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
+ p& Q" w( E1 d, t) n: gThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over/ W7 d- d1 u7 J/ S
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.4 I: Q: a& A- ~0 Q/ S; L
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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+ a" J7 m2 Y! l# _1 n6 }: R% u. jContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010./ K, t3 A, m6 K, H# C
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.( ^4 F# j6 e! H `' o5 D4 F6 W
$ M q! {5 T( K% Z; ~4 kMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.9 G1 _! ~1 o+ _" @1 |/ _
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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( y, h9 }# ^ w( F5 z) v! ]“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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