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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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% \) L6 Q- C/ a3 kRepublish Reprint
* v8 Z( b3 ?5 N. @; C7 a. AGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
$ L8 Y$ A9 w, K, p1 m. o9 R3 ?More from Gordon Isfeld, I; m( E, j- o! e7 d& Y
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
! z+ L: _" B1 B* ~# g1 o9 ]BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants. v" w4 b/ `2 c
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- d: c1 c. a5 | e BOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.1 U8 d* V8 l7 q+ `1 p4 w
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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: G! I+ z& W( }* Q- }7 z; B, w* iMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.9 i1 I: p6 E* R2 L e- z: p
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.$ n5 M2 h$ {1 h9 J) ~* N- i
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%." v4 o3 W% j% L) V0 `
8 x l: f. U" I3 j2 h" lIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.; F$ \ N9 u0 s; a
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V6 }: x5 A- }/ Z0 R7 m; XCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns7 a" u& t; N, g- R5 T# P- i) m
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Z& ]. O$ t% q3 a& G E* x3 nThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over0 C1 L& q& S U
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.* d' I9 O/ W; S2 S/ ?; y/ t
# B) ^2 [' |* W' D% e ~“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”: ~0 J, @; B0 h( t
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.3 N( e+ \0 @5 Q/ G, ]
8 i2 H' q( c2 s$ U" fCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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! v% p% ~! S, f( Q& @" l) JContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.5 T5 M# q' V6 [7 k* t l9 K
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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/ f0 w& y f) _( Y$ {7 T- Q }The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.* o* |* }) G, E* ^1 V$ w
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.3 S& O V( k5 f& |( t
2 O; D! K$ Q- R2 p T1 P, ITotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.0 P. w; h& \& s) Q
* z3 J" S$ ]9 C, S8 w( h: w“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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