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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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* l: }8 r1 W% _ i4 Q6 bRepublish Reprint4 U3 z8 Q, k( v0 W0 q$ h) ~
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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+ e" i; l' I$ |+ KLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.4 [2 k8 P, j) u
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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6 _6 ]6 @9 L7 L5 zOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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2 w) P% P8 A. q. S1 M, z WThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.( `, d% r C/ q3 B1 a. d" A1 |9 ~
x; H/ ?9 M5 y8 e1 AIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”) R9 O* k4 S; Z) C
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.0 C5 U- I& e& {- P
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.# f7 N. ~, _. y4 ]5 V: g* t
- |. o% L1 M9 k6 Q+ o2 {1 G4 `0 ~As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn. a% c% q% V- j4 f' I. c
6 O( d+ |) X1 k0 p+ F; wHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.5 V, c* R y! v7 a; z
* M7 Y" J$ ^) b1 PIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.. }' L& q! m \5 ~( C3 k8 r
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
! K5 J! s/ w) XCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’9 F, T* f4 t& w0 g& U; F. Q& |! s
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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! \# p7 y8 x' l; H F“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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9 ?5 Y7 N$ l, w1 G- q$ ZFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.3 t+ A/ B# z* i# e: [. A- Y5 [
9 x/ k+ S5 h& _# ?" j; ]5 cCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.% x9 U: c5 u: n
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions. H6 }4 E* i! @1 ?
: i2 g% t5 A: k! J/ ^Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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5 J+ v8 T" K) K: x+ J; EThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.. S! _" X0 W# T& \8 H: ?% f
" {3 ?. }3 ]5 U$ c$ u“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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: o& ~6 Y$ ^" ~Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.( s/ C( X9 M$ F$ O+ ^
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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