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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts" U8 S; O; G2 Y" L
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET/ E# j% G. m0 [! Z5 I: {1 D# s0 V
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants." d, y2 L5 z$ J
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.( ?: ~) g5 K" A2 D) R5 v
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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8 P4 e# W2 h5 H! J. s5 ~Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.5 l8 T3 E# d* j" p5 Z( I
! f1 t2 o: t+ }9 ^/ ~“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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: T9 A) j9 x7 c$ a. \As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.1 `9 O# P& H+ z6 j
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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3 B7 n! R. o% o. O2 W! e" C7 N# FIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.4 `8 Q3 F8 w6 T5 A; ~
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
2 ^! R. C$ H2 a, ^0 a6 nCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’& L3 E c5 m8 y5 K) N
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over2 R7 e1 V" K2 t1 _
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! p6 N) y0 w ]/ X. S! lThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.5 g) [, d) ~ W# N7 y7 Q
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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4 v: K- e% f* S/ `& m) x" H; v0 q- FFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year. z# F& G7 I+ e
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.( U% {) x/ w# j
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010., }6 E% M$ W7 q$ n, I6 \' C
; w, U1 ~2 q0 ^* h. q' \The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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: H0 V5 x& y; t( |+ z( TThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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0 C6 j2 Q8 C+ F, Y& G |“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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/ V. T, M2 `6 c7 A- s9 j+ d2 \4 V“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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