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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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7 ~ ]! ^1 d% V6 iBanks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.
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* G9 X1 }* j# i5 R$ l/ F" [Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.! r+ _& a. s( M! d
! e) J/ J. O: N( ~1 F* PBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained." $ R. S5 Z! K7 ]7 Q& B) Y, s6 @ Y
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He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
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% r, o' i* W) W: b) CThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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' H- y" X1 V' e9 ?7 Q) q* RIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. % a G. v4 V+ }3 y
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You're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.! F- x. B6 ]0 q7 ^4 y1 `* W
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+ G5 ~# m/ o3 x: b1 bwww.happymortgages.com |
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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