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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?0 }! E8 R- r, K6 q+ D" A- Q5 L
# W X u6 t$ iBanks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.+ T6 k' m b5 R9 l. l; [
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Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.; j8 V$ Y9 j, h. w9 X
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BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained." 8 r+ e0 }5 c! J
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He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing.": p0 A g N, S+ d1 L
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The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says., h. {+ t" E4 |( y/ [# p/ D$ o
" }7 |' T" S; ] zIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. * U' S: a. a4 e& K D% l
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You're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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