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本帖最后由 UncleSam 于 2017-4-2 20:04 编辑 + r9 O' k8 G% u4 S
3 t1 V# h6 x5 }; z有一定道理，最近看到2015年在油价50元时预测油价大跌40%的Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, 就预测今年油价最低到40出头，年底回到60元。他还有一个观点，大家也应该意识到了，各种因素决定了油价在40到50区间徘徊的时间会很长。也许熬到今年底，大家的日子就好过些了。- Z! b$ T; b* A& {$ `
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Man who called the oil crush now sees this
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in Oil & Companies News 29/03/2017! F) @5 a2 j% D7 C5 I
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Two years ago, when oil was trading around $50 a barrel, one hedge fund manager boldly called a 40 percent decline in the commodity, a prediction for which he has come to be known.( ]9 H3 M6 W9 G
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Oil hit a low of $26.21 in February 2016, one year after his call, before rallying to just above $50.* j4 w" _* ~6 X# z9 }
% x$ V( y. Z; Y2 `+ YNow, as crude oil has fallen over 10 percent year to date and has traded in a range for much of this year, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management sees crude falling even further — but ending the year near $60 a barrel.! ]/ R+ ?! ^7 @9 G0 p! T% ? E' z1 J
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“We think oil’s kind of going to be stuck in a rut here. I think there are a lot of oil bulls out there, particularly at the beginning of the year,” he said Friday in an interview on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”1 y9 S; i. P+ @. y
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Crude oil will likely “drift from the low $40s up toward $60 by the end of the year. I think it’ll be pretty flatish in the $50s during the summer, and then we’ll get that last December rally into year-end like we got last year, and probably finish in the high 50s, maybe hit $60.”0 U9 W; q- t7 N! R5 d
# }" J# ^# w; L; m$ zThe increase in U.S. production this year has come as a surprise, Yusko said. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to a record high in mid-March, according to Energy Information Administration data. WTI crude oil settled higher on Friday, at $48.14 a barrel./ R/ A# C% b5 c
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Yusko likes energy names like Diamondback Energy, Pioneer Energy, Parsley Energy and RSP Permian. h3 A# |& l8 s6 F. H7 }
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When it comes to the broader markets at this juncture, Yusko senses “a lot of bluster and not a lot of substance.”
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* H! q3 Y- o3 `6 T/ u“There’s a lot of hope built into these markets today on the Trump trifecta of regulatory relief and tax cuts and fiscal spending. And I think there’s going to be a whole lot of nothing by the end of the year.”
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) L: G. K* ~. t" @! OLooking back, Yusko’s 2015 call served him well. In February 2015, Yusko wrote in a note, “speculative long futures positions drives Oil down close to the 2008 lows ($30)” under the headline, “No Fracking ) W' s: q0 k4 P, e, u; [: z9 W
Around.”
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- D8 ^0 U$ g( m p$ tFurthermore, “prices stay in the $40-$50 range much longer than expected as structural challenges in the U.S. and OPEC make it difficult for market participants to move supply/demand back into balance,” he wrote.
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Source: CNBC
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狗仔卡
发表于 2017-4-1 15:51
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![3[2].png](data/attachment/forum/201704/01/161128c2yxjn80kj4krtpw.png "3[2].png")
发表于 2017-4-4 08:58
之彦老弟误会，阿稳肥妹与我老无有恋情，国内也已经劝退24岁嫩妮了，只讨了个身患慢性疾病的浦东失婚农妇做老伴，不日返还阿尔伯塔打点咖啡厅力工聊以糊口，你钻头赴俄罗斯销售方向我觊觎染指一番牟取微利，老弟你看咋样？谢了之彦！
