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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC # E1 j/ L: N2 t1 ` |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the$ @- |7 X: y6 Q6 E0 ^& Z/ o
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive9 ?+ p3 F; Z4 R% A
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
6 t4 \8 X" ?) B* v% h8 eaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.7 W6 g# T& \' @# R2 w+ `. @
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- P7 ]- d+ s0 {0 ^said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is- L% r; n2 V2 [3 Q1 _5 L2 Z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability, A" a3 o" o; q. o8 e: s4 e
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."4 X, m& Y9 Y1 r9 e( T1 k
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is4 r9 W. Q+ I3 _- ]4 _6 }: b/ S
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,5 N, q6 ~& [0 p2 T+ }& k
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have: n. {! _* o% Q2 C9 T
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.! B2 b6 t2 W( c6 f1 v
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the" N- d! K! _; B2 n5 D0 q( |
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
1 O( D, W, V9 ~( c$ Yhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.' U6 w% l0 W. p! r: Z0 I
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" R" D" M1 k9 N% P- T
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and& I1 l! ~3 t- t
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.# w6 }, k3 [0 `9 K/ x3 a
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets; z$ T! V! D. z
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in8 g6 A. o4 c& t
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
- o+ k* D( z% c5 |; a! phistorically depressed levels.
% k6 s9 U/ |9 t X- w Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost) d. f/ |5 l2 w: A, T* i# f
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House7 k# Z& ?7 x* |" z' p5 N5 V; M
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 ]# R" w5 m2 j0 i+ v% V( A
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
4 V/ G3 c2 T+ Venormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the( m' p( }# }: l7 d: R! T
months ahead," added Hogue.$ O, @6 F7 {8 D- k: [& }( ~9 ?
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
8 Y6 a* u# u6 y; z' ?cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
5 X1 _( p [5 P) Z7 Y, o42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.* X" ~& T9 r. |, Y3 u+ I
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
- G8 V# N/ G/ _' O( ^7 b$ i2 Pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these* h* B/ ~0 W4 v$ `8 _ c! {( b! [
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only' L0 }2 y" J% x9 A0 Z z6 i
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
, M, m9 z G; K The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
U9 M% @. H1 [, s5 `0 y3 |8 @based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 w5 {0 C7 o, S o; u3 Hbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
. `, l3 H. R9 a8 K$ s& jincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard U+ x2 C1 z g5 h1 v( G
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
' L) G5 }8 V6 y* o r5 ]6 c o; z) H4 tFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
6 _+ k# F4 |5 i; _; r, {1 ucosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
2 n- n( x7 U! k# cper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.: `6 L7 o% M; b. g. i* H% T
p) j: M+ F0 h# a) U <<1 u8 ~+ W2 B: Q! q N! B
Highlights from across Canada:
2 y: m+ @, [ l m9 C4 A0 T0 h1 }
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has; I8 u" F7 a4 U& B0 M( H
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
) G0 q" I2 A8 P e home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound7 A! L" @3 M! U$ I
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track: N, V$ {9 \: Q9 ]; a' d
since about the middle of 2007.
2 @: A( z6 G0 l; W% t6 m - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the/ X3 P5 Y) T' s" M2 o7 h! Y" u
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to( O! x" w& J5 N8 g, E4 v
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still$ g! C! K. [3 m2 v+ q
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely) z5 C: V) _9 H# a2 Q5 S
poor affordability levels.
6 M% ^; T0 ?: z) `- K% L; h - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" b9 n( j1 p* R! i4 n7 @
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
; F, ?: c9 M2 ~( p t prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly., X! }5 T1 |" R
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: e# [4 O- h. C. E minimize any downside risks.
0 u7 V$ f5 g: b, H& d4 f" I - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market, n% b7 r+ S4 M4 Z% W
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is5 X6 K5 b* K+ O* a
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
7 k; x. X! s' d+ X( T1 P: ] 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
$ N: K% s2 m0 E% C9 Y$ q! L0 k- |5 M being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
' X- `% ^) g2 q1 c, e - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
, `6 d6 t& U9 g- q1 |7 N Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 W6 I1 k2 ~8 u/ w6 b$ ~! w
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
; }0 K5 ]% R3 K reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be; T' z5 F5 \- R/ c# [/ r
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
7 U1 c+ `( f% C' E$ V% M modestly in recent years. U% K; d/ N7 F6 p9 [9 Q
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the+ j9 V% W$ e! d# k5 z* t
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
. j1 I1 ]/ N7 S0 k, |! d- H spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 U$ N& k. _6 {& V, v# U1 p7 _ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 b# i3 {9 s2 a, [' J9 @3 ?3 P
following two years of deterioration.
6 A6 D$ q4 Y: U" _2 ~ >> |
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