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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 y1 k' S4 A( X6 Q6 X* `( v
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the- y; {/ n9 @! n
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive" N7 e- G7 U9 ?4 X
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
/ Y, E) D1 j3 E+ q, T: [) Naccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.& q, ^8 W/ L) u+ `
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
) j2 D1 ~5 w# L6 J- B6 Msaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
# }2 Y2 E- `5 |improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
" m [* P i/ x Q2 \. n! M& Gmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
8 K$ \: I2 K8 |- x# |" x9 n2 i; m RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
& [" r* x% `6 @9 D) K! ?worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,) C& E) @ ]( f; @
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have3 p6 ~; q! y( f' v" ^/ ]9 a% g
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.( d0 |% y8 p* S' s! w" H
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the% s* H% a9 ~. ]" V1 ^
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a& }. W# o* Y! g! k, F/ \8 g! ^* n
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
. M2 A' o6 W% e! d: yAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# E9 }5 M% T' [1 D# ?0 x1 O' I
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and6 H7 l5 s# e: j# p; N
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
% j8 [7 B2 |4 |9 ? According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets- j _( O* x5 c/ n3 W
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in) C: k7 o& z' N, V- K" r; g8 i
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
, |# H" N9 U7 _! \$ T% Ihistorically depressed levels.
1 a' f3 n* f& W" l8 p7 I s Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
1 k X4 M5 F0 p+ \/ fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House6 B0 |3 k! J+ q% u6 W' E+ N
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- ^* V5 i7 J8 o4 A; d/ p
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This( g+ }+ G' }6 D | ^- c
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! k5 w* E' G1 L) mmonths ahead," added Hogue.4 \9 L8 r& F$ {+ u- U- b( o
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, h. w n2 @3 W, H; M5 Zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary O N4 d: r" K/ p1 W- e/ H
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.3 k E5 T7 U& Y9 g2 @
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* Y: M. T% O# Y/ X7 O
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these4 G7 P' r; N2 s
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
1 k4 m* l; o4 J4 y. ttakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
* d, o/ p* a7 A7 r The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ W+ r* [* y L6 o+ W2 C) k U
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
9 ^+ }9 G5 j9 T: @8 E8 z3 ?benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
. i1 Z8 D- l' X* [" n! |including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
1 I( c9 W# a h' {, m7 z4 Z# ?, acondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.- c+ ?; S6 z0 h( W4 V# Z1 v
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership7 y, }2 {/ g% ~& W8 E! K( }! M
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
/ \$ W( @: [$ b. ]per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.& n5 p9 t5 w$ L0 z4 i7 N6 |
& I, q. X |# h <<! {* }; P2 z# m, T8 ]* S9 [" K U
Highlights from across Canada:' ^& p) v1 @) l, ?. D5 b* _! B, x
5 K @& a- T; f6 d, ~. X - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 ] z# Z/ M2 z! O5 T4 n: Z intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing6 N3 }5 ]$ c' ~; ^+ a
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
/ y& K1 o7 z0 C( J- J only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
; a g/ e3 N0 y* f) i7 f9 X since about the middle of 2007.5 m( p2 P! `5 j* T; M0 N) W! C F
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 n/ T9 e1 y- x7 f, c6 b
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
7 R( c3 K1 z+ k: L+ L decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still6 O& E) J, c# G7 n% F7 s
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
, b+ y6 q2 e, Q poor affordability levels.9 K0 t2 B9 e% W+ n7 x8 u2 h6 M
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
" z/ `% O! b' J vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
. j0 Y+ Y* H' w$ V* U# z prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 l" N% w/ i/ r, i H0 g7 T# k5 U Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
9 N, \/ U# u% v0 r* b minimize any downside risks.- ^" j3 k4 j8 u1 E7 b1 J1 g
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
$ y! S4 i8 c2 A6 _% X( _; I conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is. \' x5 C, N4 E
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
& z( ~, Q6 Y. i1 Y 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
3 g/ h8 h3 L' D# Y) Z/ T being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
& p9 O7 L7 h/ `# W! I4 X - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in- G, O- ?9 k7 I$ H& p
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 s: `. c7 {( ^- {& S4 [! X
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up* E7 c' P8 u1 ?3 X. i; a
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 D/ s; `" p8 k! K: z, Y
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ w" _/ f3 I) m modestly in recent years.% s$ T" g. i. g3 g
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the9 T: }8 \. y" q7 N( n$ v I g0 p
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% L( t; N6 A) U6 |
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
5 V4 @6 l7 s9 B5 z: X8 m0 R4 I price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
. t% d" ]9 T" o; n following two years of deterioration.
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