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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
# V5 v0 D( }4 X* P5 x* Q1 w4 j TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
9 e0 M$ _( ]0 \# a$ ~7 W% Hmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
6 d' m3 W4 m7 p% ygains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- C+ |# C4 `8 c/ s0 ]# q, |
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
( m; n) [$ V; h- N1 U) g/ N6 ~& a "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
% ?/ B1 p2 h, K$ Usaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is: @- c6 Z- P; X$ o# w
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
3 p% t' K, t1 z% d+ A8 Y& v3 [0 y7 Umeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.") Y* ?# k! y; k' a8 m6 t
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
' \0 _. g% {& i4 Jworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,2 w' n7 v% Z, ?+ @5 i7 k
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have! H- \* I) O e: H8 i& w
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
2 p0 }( r; ?9 L; e The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the: g1 l3 I5 m0 Y7 F1 X' ^+ [
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
9 u3 g6 ^4 [! f% R9 [) lhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008., u8 B( R% ~; j2 b
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
3 _$ n$ p9 V5 ]standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
& ], H* n% }" J& e* hthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.# w6 s2 \8 D: C$ R% i" Q' U
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets0 b4 l$ i$ E& L% x* }- e
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in; M9 Y2 ]" ]) B% \ V; E; }. \6 P
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
" V5 D9 N; R6 W% |5 f6 q0 fhistorically depressed levels.
X4 S2 x6 _) N3 b% k Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost! R; |6 A ~2 d% Y6 w9 b
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 q0 ~+ S) G. t" }prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the, D# O/ }5 {: P( E
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
k* \' u3 ~& c* wenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% z5 p/ [- L" ~3 O9 [3 `
months ahead," added Hogue.4 }& l+ q* m4 ]7 y
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest" n4 [4 m7 {, _
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
# n* \0 O8 {( I8 Q! Y% \/ n7 q42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
$ c& q6 D2 X8 q9 ` The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for: H: u' V8 W" |1 {
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 O3 g$ |: H) ~0 m7 R
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only E9 a/ ~+ f4 W
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
3 p f) M; B/ K0 T: p" \- L The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
3 R# L- }+ A' N. _/ d+ m6 d/ jbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property; J& h7 K. G9 b: p9 ]5 w# ~, i* T" D
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
! L. V3 q& w8 d+ V3 u& K8 Cincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
7 h4 O5 L8 Q m$ N5 bcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.$ K( i& C! H# w+ @) }
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership/ ^4 [0 }; R* C8 z
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# R! X) G4 K; v& m" c% ^; i- Z
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 y; @" _, u* b7 g8 _1 V$ f* O' K/ l" t
<<" b; ?5 n1 q3 B
Highlights from across Canada:
# I4 X% q9 y! d: e. M
9 q" b: b6 v3 q# r3 T+ t& Z! _- w - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
& h& e0 p& M) b0 ~2 I intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing+ D" \# j2 h# K; w' i; [
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
) {! ?4 w, p* o2 _: s. t+ [3 h only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track, W# f5 c# f$ G: a3 ^9 L+ ~$ I+ f8 m
since about the middle of 2007.
8 L H7 n/ I9 R - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
$ X9 t3 U1 [% r$ q7 U f frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
, V6 M* ^; o A, H/ W- Q+ @) y decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still9 e. Z2 N. ^2 U) v
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely& ^9 J6 j% z2 Q
poor affordability levels.
. F; w$ ^& W- j# Y/ T - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 \+ M* H3 d% K* I+ b2 ~
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and7 Y( B6 `! N3 J, R; ^$ @2 S7 q3 d
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.& }2 w* ~4 t7 N/ a
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
* x8 ~, |8 {4 f1 n. U7 m minimize any downside risks.
x* m! i4 z$ ^- w, n3 N - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market' o8 ?6 E9 N/ h9 T/ T
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is6 _# g8 b1 m+ j8 _ i6 ~- P# B, S
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early9 N3 H+ ?, N2 C0 f
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
1 Y. r( z2 R2 Y; {$ ^; C being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ n4 M `1 ?0 I+ B - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in; `9 i7 j5 W" M- [
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
( s+ V1 w: t6 P e! i5 i( H far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
9 |* v0 T2 b. E& A) ^" f# K reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be0 ~" Y& R( l+ {4 {5 E3 f
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 F, i( ~0 O( h( {, f' c modestly in recent years.
; @5 M% J+ R) f& v- i/ P - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ z* z5 |% y- W" M5 l/ l% z general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
3 C' ~3 G- K2 C spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward i+ ?7 x. e+ U% J N: }
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability0 D) G& U: P" F( U2 d+ [ i
following two years of deterioration.
% _$ v* ~& M& O$ D3 C >> |
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