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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
7 m9 f4 `) Y" K# a6 ]9 V8 u! S TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
/ |# [- e* v; p4 }* I# E' U5 ^% ~middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
- p# }+ i- w! G: s$ V6 r: ^* Hgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,/ p$ ]/ U+ r; r. q3 x$ S
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.5 P% x5 D8 ^7 y; j! P' d W
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
- q1 Y' |& L8 S1 |/ P( {0 }9 K' bsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is8 ~9 Y6 \7 `% w: N) Q8 x( Q
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability9 _6 g% ^" }9 v
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."0 g0 y# P( l. z7 G: J. ~
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
% D) H' p4 |4 }, b( q& Aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
4 a3 s9 x: o$ W. ] i9 dwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
4 r5 E# Z3 v Z5 e% V, A( b; tsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.7 ~) H8 f3 @3 H! ?
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the" H, ~. ^3 F K0 O# |
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a8 ^9 P; D" m/ N/ d( B0 u" a' ?1 b; H# \- @
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.9 I" W- H8 s* Y1 F( O) j' b
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the% S/ j* _: w I" F, d; T
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
. I! j0 o$ O2 a& [9 R4 Lthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
8 g, v/ B" u$ m6 j2 D According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
* W& q) t$ G1 E- I# imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
/ l. P) L3 D$ p& \# F2 ithe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at. k+ c% d2 v: V
historically depressed levels.
: r; o6 a( F4 p, o- n* n1 ^ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 T* L% P, e: N$ ~# U2 h# Q
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House2 [" q1 r' Z D! R* c
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the/ A! {( L O" L
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
0 x3 B: o1 A3 j/ penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
( Z% K( v9 }* C8 Q& E) t. Bmonths ahead," added Hogue.& ?6 U" n& A: H* p* U7 W% s
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
; ]8 L8 m& V+ V$ a, Ccities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
4 n* x4 w, ] W- f/ n42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
+ W7 X) L# b" d/ h' J The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
+ L2 Y) i$ N1 q* {! S( Ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
! \! l; h- e/ qcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. r2 r$ n) U& I; o3 ^4 o
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
" Q# w* \. [6 z The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
& t( Q5 p/ o; ]based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property' T* T9 }: q' W- |8 {! {% u
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ D: T: y2 l$ w+ Y; E
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard, v# r3 l2 Q/ W* Q' G
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.$ E" |, |& N0 o5 g
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
, Z5 Q% L8 K. C- Lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50 V, E; R1 n& m" q' Y
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.& V, j( j5 c5 j* N5 Z: B, y: T
4 g! z% O/ S' U7 z& W8 r } <<
; v1 B7 \8 i1 [ w: }5 A Highlights from across Canada:
2 _7 B" F) ^! n; n5 ?' y5 V% ?" z% [, d. i8 b8 f; B) j
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
7 n5 F9 e8 `& o4 w; f o' ]9 B intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
2 j6 l. ^, @4 Z3 E8 J& W home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
& b8 g( s, {5 Y0 ~' ~1 X only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
. g, u; V) ^2 E- q3 n6 H8 z4 w since about the middle of 2007.
P5 g$ s8 ^0 E+ y - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 ?! R& U M7 r* U6 c9 I6 }( c
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to& A! |9 _: r0 L3 u6 S' ^
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still. c! g! A. Y+ c0 b3 V3 ~
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely; N1 ^; l% k+ {. ?
poor affordability levels.
7 L& R0 h( z' ]; H; I1 X: _0 u( _) H - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ S# P$ l6 ?, s$ t vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and" W& e: ~8 n' x3 w( @
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly./ a! K5 W ^( B- `9 D+ O
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to2 T4 i" B4 N- A2 |- A/ G
minimize any downside risks.
& i8 C/ o& N Q( Y* e - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market7 T) V+ D' o0 O% j, D/ g
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 g+ L( A8 E( X/ q2 D
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early: o" u* h9 m/ T/ v; ^# h$ d; k
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 H# h- D. z# ?+ d: e, T+ Q- g being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.. B' p4 H( |3 z% R3 j6 O. U- x
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in5 o/ X m9 L( I- J' Z9 L
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus# q* \9 X- o* n0 ^! g
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up2 ~9 n$ p7 P+ V& G! l
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 B* Y6 w" V2 \9 O' `& ? ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
$ y# z4 Z6 ?8 @0 v$ c modestly in recent years.1 N* p4 ^% @0 d# |5 D9 r4 e2 j
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
7 S. W' U, ?' U$ K% p7 Q general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
! r8 Z" r( C# d spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward+ c! ]& M$ d$ m5 @, c# e& h
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability' ~9 H, s5 x- S
following two years of deterioration., S8 g& j; @9 Y, x( M) N6 q
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发表于 2009-4-15 19:05
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