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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 1 Z, _, |3 G) Q1 s* y) b1 ^. r+ T. _
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, C2 n$ b5 p* l9 b$ }middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
i" R0 O3 G' g* |/ R; Vgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,5 X" Y& @# S% Q, K- m+ E5 @- `
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.+ |9 w2 K% y7 A. v
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," Z7 X4 k$ q' M0 E a
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is+ e2 L7 T+ N1 L* J$ U: E
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
* B3 t7 x- q$ X' U+ i1 b- ]measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages." s0 f* S7 g" N5 V2 W0 t
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is9 M$ k+ u+ V; a- e" ~2 u% X
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,( j0 O9 t! N/ T9 H% B1 r
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 [- ]9 K. o' u0 j1 dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 X/ B: [; t6 D# V/ G; z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the. R9 E: x) Q5 q" H7 F, i- ^
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a7 B! a. E/ b# f- a; t9 y
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
- f' y: _! P0 d- ?7 `Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the# v2 ^: q5 v) z; b2 D: Z" N* b y
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
# L, S3 c8 Q$ B" e$ g1 kthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* z1 G$ v; m: J% r2 v8 H, f
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
2 j! U! t: A/ ^+ G% V7 O& Rmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# s! ]# _; R2 c
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
# c# V: G" F% k+ `% x- r' W9 \historically depressed levels.
K j# E7 v, Y* j) T! z( A* I Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost3 l+ \( s# L' |) j) ]! g6 t7 D$ f
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
+ T! d( W5 T. }9 J5 bprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
7 D9 e) a/ {' B+ }+ Xhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This! r0 [/ M- f3 P* Q4 F
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the, I. `7 H7 K$ \
months ahead," added Hogue.
: ]) b2 j% x- a$ O2 `0 E) {: j RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest7 c; m0 d1 i7 D' _4 O( s
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary. \+ G- M' B4 {+ D! q) t
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
# D% i) t7 f3 ~: @ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
g; H4 t u% k3 pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
% K s8 A: n* q( pcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
9 v. j6 h! S5 e2 ttakes mortgage payments relative to income into account., c# G& q7 P; b& D) K
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; R; g$ \ P Vbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 O8 e* o$ ~) a3 @( n6 {; Tbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented1 Y* B8 w) W, P/ e4 t6 k
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard. X4 L6 M9 [# w
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
2 z1 O, {, t% I3 q2 {, h# P( E3 }For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership- C; B, R; m1 f8 n: m
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50& I2 {$ `# U# Q5 C# C
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
( C: t2 k, Z5 z; ?) l$ w1 _. H! R3 L$ q0 p
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1 {- L/ v# W2 M: P; i Highlights from across Canada:
- J1 X4 B$ m: M1 j1 w4 ?' p0 v# }, h& W. l! s
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has$ ~3 p3 A( \3 t' ~( C6 e0 v+ p
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing, y7 s2 y- g) r. Y, Z+ Q
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
9 ]/ e7 G" U1 i4 i1 N( t D" F* r only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track7 t" N3 X! l: P) N7 i
since about the middle of 2007.- x7 V& v/ E' T6 E0 A4 V9 c
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the* U4 t/ C, }0 j, F. u5 p
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
! ?) \1 e" |0 _" j; L* W decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
' N1 [! g P0 X4 n largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
; o, x$ k0 |1 Y: [; l# D poor affordability levels.
9 K- F& [, A! B4 T - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 E$ v, G! x! A* N6 K1 F7 h vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* S0 R' y. ^0 g: u* {% s, d
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly., S+ X. X/ b0 Z% b( O! }
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
9 b) L& q9 U0 b" M4 t( R minimize any downside risks.
4 r+ R) [# J% b - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
! d: }! U0 S" i" `- b2 P. V conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is3 G; H8 `4 `4 _5 X
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
4 Q/ q/ H! `& d' j' x p, ?/ M 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
% O# C9 p. Y* w& P' w being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
m% B; [8 i- v4 @2 Z' a% x; @7 D - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
6 o6 K" u0 s; }1 s Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus8 O1 A% Z D& X7 p W
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( |4 P; m+ f2 N3 K' B8 G; ^' c$ P5 S reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. x' S- B* e* p3 [$ r ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only% h* A2 J0 d) j/ o p8 B, a* Z
modestly in recent years.
0 g$ T M$ o, y% {, y - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
# K0 L* \2 S+ L' ? general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot) \! I; j' h/ o/ Z% \3 G( k: o
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
8 i! r/ M# S" k h price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
$ K1 l, c: ?4 l3 R0 A9 [ following two years of deterioration.- y4 S: y2 L1 ^. |; V# t' ]+ r) W# D
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