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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ; Y: u% G) W n6 b' a; f4 X
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 i' k/ V, g0 H3 z- ]. E* H
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive% ]7 y0 k, z O( f
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,; z7 k9 z' z, U" y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics. y! a- ~% {% p$ G( |0 k, I5 `- p0 b
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"% b. F8 X* Y' ^' a) X' B
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is! |) }% ~7 B" s2 l" U- N( K
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
3 c: |7 s8 M* _6 ^# ^. x: w3 tmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."1 ?6 L/ M& I1 j) y0 Y8 m5 k
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
0 l& A9 w: x. {3 q9 _worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,' ^5 H8 J! x7 O1 v) j+ f/ I
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! F6 G5 ?: S9 ]! ^( j* O0 r3 }sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
" R! [! B" i) t$ _4 R: j The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& ]. q5 @' w8 L: ^: w2 M
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
7 d9 o( }7 T. W, N, E' jhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.9 ]. S7 _: l$ w7 @% @8 K8 F& F
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the/ k/ x" E: N( N1 y. Z* p4 }/ R
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
0 o" l1 B5 I# }- Othe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.# D. g( x5 q2 o) s
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets, B5 n: a3 e/ M m9 W! Y
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in" B3 j! m7 V( k% A! }6 i$ q# N( y
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at3 L* m2 _ B0 n$ H
historically depressed levels.
0 M9 r# A* t' L Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost% c7 c6 D" m6 T0 W
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
! e$ e; d( y2 F/ M* Rprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the: v9 r( B. e( X) a% e
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
) z z# c8 N7 P$ w0 zenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ `, D/ r: G8 ?: S4 l7 E& tmonths ahead," added Hogue.
) Z: `' y* w4 f RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
" h+ {" [6 [$ e) t$ Acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary) D5 e/ |0 L r" C
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
, q9 D) D% d! ]! E' V4 { The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 h- B2 `, b+ e* Fa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 A# m2 `. ? `' q5 E
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only$ j; Y3 G4 ]# s! J! K: S6 B
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
7 u* d! Z) N( x3 l* E, A! G3 f2 d The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is' X9 }$ m. e6 i0 ?2 b1 G0 V8 [
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 W0 X: n* x, n' mbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
- J$ n p) C2 G6 o- T! }6 Lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard p8 F7 | V/ L) j8 t
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
: a. j) @. P. @2 c CFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 ^7 E9 s F0 b7 j0 ccosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 507 X* E D2 x% V5 a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.- X! x. _6 u0 Y9 Y8 f; S
! I! h y, f8 Q; p% o <<- \" d/ P' u& l x
Highlights from across Canada:1 J; X Z" A ]4 ]; R
/ \. J: c$ j' Y- D1 e- ~4 s
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! x: O6 F' r" y9 L, u& P0 f intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
: T3 Z9 P& I& d3 q& I home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- q5 o8 q9 p, x only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track7 y3 [! j: A) }5 d7 w: g" e/ J
since about the middle of 2007.
5 y% J% U) C6 a, O/ v - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
6 H& X0 e9 f& U# e4 c+ w8 Q7 d frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
8 u2 D: `0 r, K! v' M" c) C decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 U( m9 c' R4 u7 O$ O5 O largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
. P+ Q" T' N& \; `, T1 J Q poor affordability levels.
+ w: D0 X& i$ i5 f! S7 r# y* E1 S# ?3 g - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the$ b8 ]. ^3 m4 H) f* g( R
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
$ A3 o8 u" A6 R8 } prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 a! T. q5 _+ ^$ l& t, T2 o
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
: H( b7 k: e9 c' R' h) S# M$ f minimize any downside risks.
; h9 a6 d2 n M. d5 \ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market0 T. E" z1 m9 m! d, ~1 h+ f/ ?
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is h5 @# C1 F9 A: A
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early: i. T8 p4 a: T) m" P
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly) |% O7 S% e2 w0 X; n+ v; X- x
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) s5 u" }! ~* Y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in; \7 D. B! C. b7 f; @& m& ]7 x
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
- R0 q @7 p* D* x- ? far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
! ]1 I: `2 f2 j; E6 I reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be, i! q5 E. x1 J
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only4 g d ^( b( J, U+ e9 l; @
modestly in recent years.$ S$ R) j. p1 V4 `5 `" q5 r8 O
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
n+ x' I4 S3 P2 e0 C general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
8 k! g; V# L6 Q1 A1 }# R$ }0 P spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward9 w) @ `! H/ s9 A
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability% n6 ^% @2 ]. m. u
following two years of deterioration.
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