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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
. |/ G0 L% y( h' }8 X1 l TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
2 h0 {3 }+ {8 zmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive5 r! J% M% T- U9 _ z
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,7 l: Q# O* d9 C# |+ |, Z
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.: U+ c% N* }6 G/ N3 L. r* g2 C
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
" }% l; O, r/ S( Y( U: L+ ~said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 R0 b$ v C0 ^' Bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability9 `" C0 J% X$ a$ j
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages." x: h+ f& {8 h
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
& |# r, Y5 B0 H/ J2 Tworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing, t/ {- V" y0 m8 l% u1 i
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
* x2 b: w, ^% Y4 v0 @0 _+ qsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
1 D9 `+ R0 t# y* W. |5 C The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
1 ~. b& I6 K6 J1 }5 R. C" Hproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a; @3 F' [4 \" b2 D0 x0 N0 L
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.6 c( `' }: C9 X" g/ w' [
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
* y- C& L/ Q0 l, ]6 Nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
- M. w* }; B5 |the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. h* {) W# ?9 W: V* n' r z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets$ d3 D7 f' k* i/ y* |; f; ~
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in0 k+ s& L8 t7 Y
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
( i4 Y4 C! T* V9 f: Z$ Xhistorically depressed levels./ G7 ?! ] p. i
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
6 C6 F$ K9 Y) ]of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House8 p4 M: c# M N1 |1 h& B
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the- {; `# A( G% h( x- b% o
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This+ u1 W& y& J9 Y, r! [7 }
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the, |! ^9 R9 |4 _1 v$ y) l n8 D N
months ahead," added Hogue.
/ ?0 L" B9 d5 u& I) y RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest3 I9 c' J0 T( t) m
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* D# U, m8 J4 h8 E3 e' |7 w
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.7 S9 o+ _3 l/ C2 Q0 M( Q4 J- N. o
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
! A% l2 z0 a8 [a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these% j2 S( u3 c0 |% j; E
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only9 z% Z; b* W) |- V9 R% \7 _. ?
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 K9 \. W) [" e; ]3 n. H6 C# \
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ v3 E" \- B# A! {based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
' s; E0 T" a0 rbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented7 x( l* C5 t0 |% r f6 u
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
/ [. C8 Y. {- ^+ u. I9 t1 h: W! Ccondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.% v; Z6 h6 O6 H8 _% [9 X9 l
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership& h8 ` T0 U9 {* @1 L& Q5 l
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 504 y; I( W8 K! p1 ~
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
3 ` d! F3 K; I& n% l
9 k* T7 L8 O N: F$ }$ a/ J <<
6 j1 Z8 _ u: { Highlights from across Canada:" p" H: A$ a4 p9 f
, _3 ~, P1 K) z; E. V - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has" S: e7 K- j: y; }% o
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing! }7 V8 w* O) g4 S& s7 j" X+ l5 O
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
. ^# h2 R7 E- U7 _ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
/ H9 L- _+ t2 { since about the middle of 2007.
3 Q8 W4 u, ]! ^, H Q8 n - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 i1 ^, @+ _8 _$ L
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 C+ s. h, X( F9 ]8 N$ S; M! N- p/ l decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
4 f( D w: G: ~; O5 w largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
. M, D* j( q9 T7 o' l poor affordability levels.
8 B; ^7 {" a8 y* [3 k3 v: R9 b - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the% q0 L3 u6 [, M! V% N& ], A
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
3 R5 J) k' \# h prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- ]' v5 ]; U' b* q) H Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to# E; f( U+ F8 y" u
minimize any downside risks.' p0 |) P. L5 P. q$ k9 u5 i
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market1 r$ T( S. s! D0 K
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is: Q2 q+ g1 `/ y
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
* n1 i" _7 R7 P$ v' ^* t5 e- R ? 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 J' m0 U# _& ]; O being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.! ^7 m! u2 [" u$ W7 T9 w
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) A' T6 v# X' M, J: o3 ? Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
3 U: r- `1 E* t8 r% y2 @ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up1 [" c$ C+ c% w* o9 g
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
' |" i( f/ ]4 @9 K6 m ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only' B6 @+ R! A: a& L; r, G
modestly in recent years.) r+ W& L; w8 ^! r
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the1 W6 ^4 T$ a" C& t j0 y
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* i9 e6 \7 ]% H9 Z. h1 C$ G
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward6 Z) E% u; z1 A2 _! D9 ?
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability0 L# ?% S3 ^# o& ]! X. `
following two years of deterioration.
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