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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
- x3 D/ T: z6 x! D& y' J TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
' j7 b) R( x8 A3 {middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive' _& ]; g6 D/ _& H) j3 Y3 t
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,) O; u$ Q1 e9 H- M
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.# G) n7 x! O' W1 D+ e5 s
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 y9 Z0 g2 ~) J9 R& s0 Y' d3 \
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
' B: d& u, T+ d% W) rimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability0 f- Z- T) d( B' L0 c
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
9 R/ f. i- G9 s! C; B) W6 E RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is9 [8 I% Y$ E5 z4 h$ ^% x2 i
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
8 B) }7 F% w s; Kwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) z8 O6 k/ Z- F) D9 b- Zsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
5 o1 m. L% {" S- i( D% J# x9 D! N The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
0 A5 q8 C# u/ p% W- Kproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
( F) C% x3 p" w0 E3 N8 ^home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008., i7 c9 ]8 |0 a% x/ Z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the0 S* N" e; ^3 }0 E5 C$ d
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! a6 A: R- R$ Fthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
! S+ H/ G( w0 u/ H According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
) f8 r3 t0 r9 }3 hmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
2 D8 X2 N% _7 l: C5 ~- W/ u0 Tthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
$ l: z! G- i8 Zhistorically depressed levels.
9 v V! @/ u. f/ S$ M. Q Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost" S0 i3 Y: [% d% l# b6 V5 I
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House8 Q5 L8 V7 \7 S# q: N6 S' x
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& n/ v$ @; A# c1 z) g5 K; z
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This0 c3 z, h4 ~3 c6 w
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the `! Z2 I) x" g# D
months ahead," added Hogue.
5 A# }4 x: b1 S& g- Z4 [ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
5 C+ l7 C* J. ~" Bcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary0 ~( P( y7 }* V' k8 V, V6 v$ V3 k# B& J
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.# J( i, U6 J" Y
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
: Z7 n* B& ^0 J, u" A) Va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
6 G3 A5 t7 }! B0 Y$ O0 Bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only# o0 ~% }& M c6 P
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.% |" C2 R: K6 Q2 @1 M2 E7 b
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
! X! ?: ~ t( @$ I: t# O' e# dbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 r8 B1 T! B# ~0 Q& Mbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented3 ]6 h$ L/ n, k* n
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) _' m% ^ b0 _: }" B8 {
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.% p' }& B R9 `+ v& H
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
/ w$ B& _8 W5 i$ t/ e7 |) E+ Lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
- ]4 f3 f4 G7 T! Z/ i1 f4 Rper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
. Q/ @1 h. l6 V/ U, k( c9 q3 b6 h' W, J/ T9 ]& h
<<
0 a1 c0 F4 i4 ] Highlights from across Canada:: Z% m! X Z, \3 {5 @
5 v: j4 m, a$ F6 H - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has& X* G0 E7 v* x/ x! m$ K* O3 I$ A
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
+ M; Y3 L `' s4 o% N home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
" V6 N$ {& T- ~, z2 x# I Q" i only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track! {9 p l5 n& m/ A
since about the middle of 2007. G" Q/ A2 q; }3 X* Q% y* u
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
, A/ }% c! P4 h6 t6 E1 m frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 E5 K5 Q; n- q8 t: B" ]
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still X2 w$ \) M( ~6 I
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
0 N) f( z6 E9 h1 R, U poor affordability levels.
9 Y4 t! v/ U) L1 S+ D. N - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
7 O" k9 d# K' m8 q n vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 p9 L: Y* u0 }8 x* `+ ` prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.+ q# ?% e* q$ K. f
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to3 @. A. K F% x* J: C/ [
minimize any downside risks.
7 |: V/ i' A2 ~ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
- I* N" z: R- e I$ N conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
X) y% \3 |; c1 [: V. O5 Q7 h unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early7 a+ x/ v$ n3 i
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly# U0 f" E" L6 e; o1 \2 B0 ~8 f
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
) h7 H6 d; I- E$ p% N! J& ? - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
A# \8 i7 [0 i) \& p. S9 I Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus$ i' j! m# V" _* f$ \" w
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up1 E; o( ~1 }/ x/ n8 p* z
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# Y% n# [8 S; d9 A0 y ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 D2 S- H% Y' ?. K/ g& c modestly in recent years.
5 p/ Z- Y) R/ M7 o( w( z) O - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the4 l+ `7 d6 _* M. O
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
& C0 ^; }) |. @8 ], N8 U$ x spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
! }. }& k8 C1 u( t! i* c) N( [ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 J+ U5 {2 w2 Q$ E k' n following two years of deterioration.
. Q5 Q" S+ R+ `: d6 O+ X >> |
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