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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
* Y2 `4 h( b4 {% K- J- }3 x TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the y \! |4 o6 \' v
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive+ \2 U& U9 X9 h% [( U
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
: A f9 v2 X( r- Y# R0 ~) Laccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
" T6 p* u( F$ c; V! e" f "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 F' j( o# a: M; g. F
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is4 B3 a8 o7 e% S/ \% I
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability' I2 U* r' E1 c: \3 c" a% n, v
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."3 q7 v5 ~) l: m1 h
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* F& |# w8 C+ |0 w f9 l8 wworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
, n8 o/ c4 \! K" Kwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have( Y Z/ [' p" v
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
! C6 \/ u! B; V; Y0 ^9 X7 [) G The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( ?/ R' p2 r8 Z" o% `7 j6 q/ cproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a5 V& }4 N7 s0 V, H7 k
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 U, X% h0 U! `; F2 K! @2 p9 y4 b
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
3 E) Q: v2 z2 v+ @" ? qstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and+ g! ?0 h. {# X7 f5 c2 X# f: L$ I
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
. ]+ f* p9 P! o& U/ o% `; Z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
1 Q* W8 R3 y. Z3 W- {' Smay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
8 q4 d' N) {0 w9 e2 H3 Q+ Ithe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
8 V/ e# @+ l; s$ l @) _/ k7 M) |historically depressed levels.1 Z4 q+ N4 F# T, t, M! M
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost7 x( X- v: Q# @" k
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
- x& t2 F, c W* L! Iprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the1 q* t* [' n& k# G+ S: D* w5 u
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% g2 p' m8 X" o8 eenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* _" t7 G/ j" D0 Y) y4 Kmonths ahead," added Hogue.
6 e4 V) c- j: s; s& B' f RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
1 ~- v2 G. X. u9 O; U, |. Ucities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
" V. Z3 f- x4 u+ B42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.. \2 Z/ u8 _2 J$ O, Z. R/ k
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for) B5 Z' ~% C r
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
8 e( m. |" _" b+ scities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only% p/ y/ b% ^) z; _/ g
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.6 m0 C& ]# n: s: G6 y
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
# p' E( e. ?/ H0 C3 M" d0 abased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property6 ?; Q! O% |% u; }* [
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
; K: j6 V; W( X% _including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard, Y( K7 J9 n H7 l3 N% }$ I: K3 v
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.) B" q; X4 L D$ m! _1 W
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership5 ?. q' o3 c8 a7 g
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
5 a. I! g+ F- X: @+ V' g9 J) Iper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
0 b) J0 f; l9 J3 e$ a- c% q: x. q; K; [4 l" o
<<
; R8 |8 B, S, D B5 |: L Highlights from across Canada:( P' H& B7 ~- T* k
: @ b3 U5 w+ K* B- K% @1 h, E. b8 r - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has8 T1 y y1 |8 R: p" D$ I3 k& ]
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
& I/ r0 T' A6 S( c" r, B0 n* ` home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound+ U$ s) V1 ^( r: i, f
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
8 M7 [) s Q1 ^7 k( b since about the middle of 2007.
7 u# X' E5 [7 `4 }& P9 C - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the8 A3 ^+ G3 {$ }6 n
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
0 \3 r* B' ]0 f/ s2 E decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% a+ l1 P( O: X, _" i8 G# j largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
9 z5 _2 N# z' a, `3 X1 E" I poor affordability levels.3 m& q- u, U% f* Q5 D0 ^
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the ]( z1 r0 L' _& M, N. ~
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and. C" m# E+ E' S! l k+ X
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
) _4 a0 Q- c% o8 u3 N$ M/ r* a- | Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
5 i8 Q% I4 ]" S9 t# L0 \; \ minimize any downside risks.
- R* D, a, A7 \6 j4 R" ~ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market) m- A( W$ ~( E0 L
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is7 Y: `3 G5 N. j+ y9 W% ? P
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early. Q& v, _7 _! ^* }- p0 }
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' V* j5 G1 z6 M5 f0 A% O
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
$ G; [6 r' V% x9 d/ R6 ^ f1 @- v - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in0 `# o# z6 m4 t. |/ k% g! [ j
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
8 O; C8 G+ c0 n2 E2 z far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 w7 n. u- ^7 S! V$ O. X' n3 d1 h
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
/ i9 a P5 H( C1 h. ^! k* ^- l0 d ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only2 s1 n- i8 ?& ^: S; q
modestly in recent years.7 g) ~) X/ P$ a/ u; e
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ J8 M8 [( c( t1 ^8 o& a
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: S( C. ?& q5 Z. b* M spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward! {0 A" ?! A$ D% t- ^
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
B* `% t Q5 P3 @' `; J following two years of deterioration.: d/ @3 W4 @; X( H3 Y J& V( Y
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