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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta8 c" r F, [8 o) v8 X
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its2 ?9 z" J; f$ a8 Y, K$ |
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
1 v& l7 ~& Q4 }% W7 q+ mare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
" T+ t/ ?* q0 S7 @2 ~- h2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( y1 P3 b2 w- c$ Yformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
8 R6 J2 y2 \7 J- Nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( H; o& w J# b, H8 Tthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
7 K7 G1 ?" B# Q2 `" b" \$ z4 smay even cease completely during 2009. The previous
) G' l4 W; b7 ^; `$ M; ~pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
! q1 a' a3 V5 V0 F2 Xprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined3 R8 ^% p- s6 B7 ]2 M. }. C3 R
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
! s8 i8 _, J' K$ S4 jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
- ^6 {- P* n5 {; E, V) H7 a1 R- tyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
/ |! y4 l" t" ]; Dhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around- d' z, Z- b5 Q2 D' y/ A
30,000 new households will form in the province during) i' l1 a+ D# @1 N# Y' u
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
" @. {/ {& g6 H0 ~- t% E; a0 BEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s/ ?2 y7 o( |$ X7 G5 l- Y
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
1 V7 D2 B0 i X( I/ w1 ^during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
9 s2 T5 ]% f& b$ ghas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new4 f' X; R( K( I
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
! S/ T! W3 V8 u/ d3 Hduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging3 V, z5 M# o7 E5 C; [. }
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
" ?. J+ E, d0 Vclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is% s6 V5 ]0 w6 d5 Y
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 M" _' f/ D- V5 |- |2 X1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
" z4 l1 ~& o1 Hsales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
0 ]. M$ m% @, N- zbuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in8 R' \8 z- P1 ]7 f; ]0 R! w
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in; ^; n8 n+ K! j7 }: }# }6 u
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
! q; P$ P) |; t7 Qunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest- S1 M5 v- |2 ]3 Z/ a2 c2 C
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the8 n) n5 J5 K+ @
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s$ ^5 ?: L% w! }
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories- V& X+ h; {# D, x, g) d' n( e
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
8 b( I: a& ~ P3 s0 s# F! ]rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
1 c, X z& B0 N- r% iThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s2 v+ n+ m, ]8 h0 k
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.' B4 L6 a; g& W) T% o
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 G6 \5 \! z. R" O6 v# Whousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
$ s) g1 c+ e* Frelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
1 X1 a/ E b8 o) M! Y5 ~ s2 _prices substantially eroded affordability and, even d% ^, I: c; l7 h- n* W4 ?5 H
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
! L) \8 X0 H. `7 z8 ?on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.0 r9 P1 z+ s }: P: r
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average3 m! z6 b4 ?7 {, \
resale price in February is evidence that past prices$ h7 B9 T0 y/ g. a
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
. e: G7 F9 p. l4 o1 Ehomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) X# A, Y) F: C3 w. d+ v2 X' ~* [4 Qdeteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
9 A2 \1 H& Q5 r2 @0 W3 `! r: FAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% m8 n5 o/ ^- {3 u; ^0 ~* Y
leg down over 2009.! q' b- I- {) g# l) L- p8 N
* S1 b5 C) y! G n. b0 B! F( e
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
% p; V' \6 M8 } y9 k9 s4 Q
