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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 7 j t( F, N! W# s X. ? l- c' g
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US) z% Q, ]" q; f
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
. \6 } d3 F1 G# ^% S6 kas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
; L9 l$ U" c: i7 q; k2 L; e0 J7 zTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
* e8 G; e7 e q7 s# H4 Z2 E5 s" |% land the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more/ x% g2 g* l" \6 i. b! P( o
upbeat.
# e% Q; z, n9 x* ^7 h Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
/ k# g3 Q0 f$ G" ]annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects V# v. Q3 {8 @5 T
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real2 B3 g' v' x0 J
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
, P' `5 ?: a+ E1 ]/ G& V1 nrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US., o& h- a3 T9 l* r
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world% c; s$ Q( J% B
including Asia Pacific and Europe.+ }* j! L& e" T0 J+ N t; [
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
Z* F8 ?* j2 H+ ^$ c* h9 j" PReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment. w$ V9 X6 W- f
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to5 L: g3 k1 H5 @) p, m
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record0 g" y! ^% H+ S* G0 U- {
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."+ M4 q1 |6 B0 |5 _
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
# T5 J. x" I2 P2 h) Bborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game+ t0 k% @* t8 o. }. G1 Y0 x
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey, Q' k- O, j6 H: P8 f; f( w$ s9 |6 y
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
) o0 r& b. O$ h4 U& `correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
3 {+ G' G5 F) q& K% r6 Tvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
! g( {+ [5 I/ e: T& w% W The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian% k" W4 K/ } ?: F
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by7 W, _" i' Z# f( E- p
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
& j: C7 }, d( ~3 tdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country+ b/ Y' s/ E; D5 m- X) e
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
% y8 l2 x0 \! A4 x' b! Kdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
6 x8 ~& s+ ^; B; y! ?" L8 L4 W; dresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
4 }& W, B. \+ [, F5 xtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
8 f2 ~" N% r& t7 y2 psingle-family housing looks overpriced.% h4 P5 c- o) [7 I6 v- L# U& @& ?
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with% [2 p1 u, h6 F! J# A
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
) N+ h/ T, D4 O+ fmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push% |5 I8 R0 _! m" u% Y$ }* a* O2 i2 ^- T ?
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
# j& I' t3 Q5 Wnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,6 {2 s) i/ h) F
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
, l h g0 ^7 Eapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary% }" p Y" ~/ o
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
, O! g$ l; y9 H& h* {shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
w, K( | ?& B7 h- C! Uthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
3 A# r1 o: ^+ i9 o# ~in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.0 S3 f6 c9 P! }' ~* q5 Q
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Canadian Markets to Watch) i# L, @& m% z* K9 }
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
2 Y5 b: \: z& p0 fcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour$ } H" n' m" [0 F
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back. C2 X- U( q' f$ k* x( z
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in, @: r% T" M5 P- Z) J6 X8 T
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
) b2 C! p( q$ u& c2 ?4 Cprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out, G) y- j& }( a R
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment, D3 T$ A# w4 e
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain; h* F% I+ e; l* i9 E+ x
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.4 U% n/ t; r- I f% e/ |2 Q
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
E+ k7 p9 {% J/ g7 Mratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
9 \* n i! m% G2 e: z7 O+ b
' K. O( d, i( m Y6 ^% S$ ^' ]' F& a Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one) d" [$ \) ^. w
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a3 V7 R, O: R& H: q1 U
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
" c% u! }1 A' R+ c48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
& B! U9 e5 R% g; {) C; k, rFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
T8 E4 E, G8 {Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the P4 n, `) f: G3 P3 }5 a+ J* C
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays6 Q8 Z7 C( [4 T( W3 M
strong, this market will continue to do well.5 X! C- ?- E# |! H6 }
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Vancouver
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; N+ Z7 h6 V" { Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is& |* e: q1 X$ P, D. }9 U
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous( D0 o [' b+ _ X; x' H( z' U
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
- V ~0 C2 U6 x2 |7 k; k1 j5 pmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
I2 w" V: _5 C6 H+ E; N: jgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
9 z6 E" I% n( r. \recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
' f; X5 t D% W! R7 c) W" Zfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
d% J& c' S+ H& ffor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
7 v7 W5 J6 M; l' U! ggood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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5 U! f& {* E; R7 t( V3 o! t Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and3 Q! n- D3 M! V4 A$ z
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is+ Z# i) L" z3 E/ b( v! G2 I
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
4 q3 l8 R' ?* W1 ]+ ]industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
/ Y5 i' H* r5 pThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
" J+ D( c& J" J$ P: ~; f9 |feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
$ u* `4 O" W) S' h* p$ DApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.5 H- _- ^8 r# y" k. }7 A
$ `# G5 H& B1 A/ J4 G* l
Montreal
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+ z5 i7 _( F/ ] Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall# J* L/ s F9 Z8 o& _5 _; U
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up2 O& T/ h( R$ B7 c
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in, i0 r* ?5 a1 }7 X% m
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
! Y3 G# z) b& d" w0 }; |sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors/ k6 t$ w9 a4 X4 Z% L' L$ I, d8 w
higher as a "hold" recommendation.3 K1 G$ ~' _" _
; ]1 K$ m) P" W# ~3 {! U9 P The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years; f; y1 ^: j! H- |) _2 E
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
: B& B; ?7 n: H1 hmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos1 p% U9 W; V4 Y2 k: b' P- l/ }
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest: T! X* C* S. z, U# e$ F
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current4 l, j% q f4 ~$ G/ Y) W
prices."
T5 M# ?/ i) a8 X% p1 D- H" C A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at" w' Q6 ?( v% V5 Y( {8 p4 n
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.( I. C9 x6 R* p3 \! a3 M+ ]2 ~
, a: l8 C5 ]8 P! \ About PricewaterhouseCoopers0 c% t% @3 Y1 H8 I% w! k
" W" v9 Y8 ~$ K$ e. ^& e$ w1 S- t
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,: e/ ~' g0 f6 ?- Y
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
; h6 d* m; H) i4 ~/ Pclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
- v# K1 z. A) y8 N$ c& @7 @across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
* \) c- B( Q9 K; u; X" l* U. Qfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of) h3 S7 F0 C3 g
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
( `, i$ a `& }3 R: I, h/ |( Lrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
! d; m) ~0 L5 {( jcountry.9 r; r! D2 Q1 c1 m) K p
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario+ y) N2 j+ m* w3 D" S- s
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
: n3 h# h( X, l" K. [" P; lPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,8 d4 d8 T- a7 [% ]
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity./ A. B% g' O6 ~
6 D! D' @5 A, Y! F
About the Urban Land Institute
3 A- n$ p- Z* E& I$ [/ @( _
) O4 v/ C% _, P c The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and: Q! u! F/ Y7 s u# f
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
/ M' r. |8 n+ `- |" gleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
3 N/ _/ C0 e0 b4 _) r+ [thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more: P" Y1 A9 U8 N6 u0 b' ~4 q, X
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
: d( S% D9 K q$ R/ m6 Idisciplines.
( v* A% W1 U$ {; C5 a) |5 P- ? The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
! }; l& W) Y: I" p. h' s5 GWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District$ e5 n; X3 U3 W) |4 |% A
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
" n3 L |% I/ K8 |3 M4 k+ lnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
% A# s1 ~7 q w! n3 k4 e2 c& uhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,: o7 q3 a1 i0 R8 N6 K: }
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
& D- @& _( Y: E* M' G6 T& q3 ]Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,1 ?" i, F) q1 x
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
# z2 Q% ^$ T; G2 [! }call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
2 D; U L! l6 L0 W9 ?; Lthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.2 O# p7 ^4 P! a7 e. c1 a2 g! E
2 {# Y" ~# l; `' f7 o C, j; F' {2 T# |+ c5 P: n o
1 u P: ~- G& Z/ \( x! O
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,8 a% u% O0 S; L. k, F2 \5 g* L
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com& ? L5 U7 Z% m5 c/ \
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html5 Q! D6 d2 g+ n+ d" ~ Z
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