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Attention Real Estate Reporters: , i/ l+ q$ j7 o( ^4 W
( J+ M; N2 C A8 ]7 D g
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
6 A9 z5 [% x) x* _' o5 G1 A TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US5 B3 y# B( Z& a6 C7 Z* Q+ x/ E
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
: _$ X1 ?0 d' k c5 X/ Eas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
1 p* G2 C/ ~! C6 K. ^$ tTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)1 [; X6 y( G5 D0 Z# j. g* m h
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
- ^% ~3 Q- G, W* Aupbeat.. E& w" \" z c% o0 T3 E
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
# j* X3 n: G7 Y9 `2 f b1 rannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
. ^4 G. V$ p5 b* Z7 Ninterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real& w7 K5 q' ~: c9 J8 Y4 g, l; @
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company" m5 W7 o) D' [4 n
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
& s6 ~' U1 d* J4 k. T2 G9 @Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world/ s5 P% `9 q' q
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
a9 s" D# G# Q/ u: x# C According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
( L& C: E/ i2 g! Y0 \9 F" XReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
% _. a) u0 J6 c! F Q- u+ y# A; Oenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to6 {: [- D2 ]) N. Y. P7 G
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
! b$ V" }% v" s& N( h7 ahighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
! ~% W7 g( I2 Q$ A6 } According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
. h1 S( J: x) Y7 b f2 M3 L% e: Sborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game4 m3 W/ H4 ^2 J. n; b5 q
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey: R' I- H: o( N$ y. r: N- Y
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US) |/ ^7 k/ [2 p" N$ e& f2 x y' R ]
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be c0 _; ]% K+ x4 r' P
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.( [+ Q: X9 c1 |7 n, J$ H% _
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
8 o. K: h' b, A) m6 T: nrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by: \3 r6 Y/ V* W( f" P& A
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
2 f; H; C/ F7 _7 Udevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
3 Q4 a$ @5 L2 s) vespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
5 B8 R+ J6 P$ ~. j7 j0 Bdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
! ]6 a& K/ e: g3 X! w2 zresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
4 R- F) {* \4 }8 z; Z4 _( dtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and! r2 [( q4 i- y( _
single-family housing looks overpriced.2 q1 Z. _1 l9 T* ^ t7 _
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with% S8 g+ H' X2 }6 s+ {+ D
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
% K! P O! v0 ?8 [metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push' N( g6 z9 p. K0 C/ q3 l- Z5 }
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting e! c3 l1 R1 |
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
2 W. b8 X* [# O! A, G, j3 Cand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
$ W$ ^. F" `, M8 v' wapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
: Q6 \1 D( F* o) n- V% Z3 }' T: `western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing. e, v$ ^& ?0 I/ ^6 _, y
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
3 t% B2 u! A: B% @the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development7 o- U, f. A8 h- q
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
+ G4 F7 d" o& b( |# s% C8 x" y9 y) Z
Canadian Markets to Watch
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# r& g1 j+ h5 T; W The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central( M4 x) c# v- g1 X
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour% }3 `0 ]3 `( ?9 E! [$ o: j }
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
' U$ C7 f2 U: r5 Ointo the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
# ]- s$ v* i2 k' V7 kdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
3 V" g2 }* [( B- L8 _% aprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out: x# c* P3 V& l; b
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
% v, T, b2 n) pprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
) s7 g L/ Q7 }whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.1 x/ L r6 @& Q2 A3 U& I) G( I: K
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
- A8 Y0 W) b; ?0 _& t3 X( sratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.# G. _3 c5 p- n8 P) I9 k& j2 H9 D
A2 [; g+ D- f Q
Calgary/Edmonton! [; s& O+ N& p% ?6 O" H' A5 W
& l1 ~ i& V0 U Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
3 P3 {8 u* _ h/ `+ c \, R. {boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a X3 G+ w' q. X @
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,+ \. E7 ^! a5 W
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
6 b3 a! g9 y/ k- QFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
" P1 ]1 m9 [4 W2 L) s( LHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the, R" G3 _6 I' ?, r& v1 i6 E
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays4 ~, Y5 ]" v7 s" z5 D4 Q2 G
strong, this market will continue to do well.
' C' c7 |1 e4 k" {+ o* c( J% E+ j3 \- h d- ?
Vancouver x* ?) X+ H* T( }! L- g
- \! ^" m6 d( }4 R: H! |0 @ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is7 v$ w% ?" \# D0 Y, m1 n
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous3 l( \0 E4 \1 M# c7 H# @1 W! M
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
) W& l! l) p5 E- }market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
7 |6 J) o1 {% K6 u1 D# ggrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy) G7 }$ E8 v5 Y7 L4 u- ^/ }' I
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
& P; H' V$ g! V& wfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
7 w+ A+ e, h: `* rfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very; ^- H0 q! C7 ^
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
. z# W3 w+ h2 T% v, e2 R$ D* v. [$ t/ m) _8 Q
Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
/ d/ t& }7 i2 Z* }2 x" \* A! ymanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is( y, `' C0 F4 `2 }2 `& _
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing9 E7 G7 X7 m1 f
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.' C( ` C( E" \4 _7 e3 Q; m, { S
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square* g: @+ _' B j/ L
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
; \+ h% \6 d9 H' O. T) }9 K Q4 i2 z+ OApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.1 Y' U$ w M) J4 ^0 t
% b- N5 Z, n* p Montreal2 Z9 G) O8 i2 O+ f% p* l- f- m/ w5 @
5 H8 z' e' U% c9 ]
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall, K4 r# K1 m D7 d
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up8 i* q5 i4 B! j) ?+ X
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
/ M* K& T" O9 I0 [4 ]Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
/ V7 B0 H- R, X7 ssectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
7 V: y* u0 y5 Q3 V6 Z+ ^higher as a "hold" recommendation.
8 e0 K. g5 a* K
( `4 l) {( f3 B& j; t The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
" s- I5 e4 [; k0 \& Yinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
& {( o, B* l/ C4 E; z7 Ymarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
3 O t8 s8 f6 |' M7 Gnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
( Z' @' l" u% z" A/ _1 Voverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
( j; [$ |/ t9 N( K8 }- c/ `& _prices."4 V5 W q# l% X5 m
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
' Q7 W1 `& d* G2 w! Nwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.1 X/ O# |. l4 p& }6 m
0 @4 ?, ]7 }6 i7 }+ w) b
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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) J1 ^% n) R4 P& G# @3 ` PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,8 d4 Y7 j+ ?5 q, _7 o6 l: ^
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its) ~0 y; ^% p6 [+ a3 J3 [( H% G
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
7 V8 t* G9 ^( v9 W8 I4 z6 Tacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop3 s- s: [4 I7 D T9 a3 r1 `+ W
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
$ ?7 J9 z" m: C7 x$ Q; f7 P. ^% cexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 {8 Y7 W5 n& D7 d3 }: K! r/ d
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
! b4 p% [' S: j/ [6 Ocountry.( h+ L- r( O; g7 Q' I6 y, ?; m) N; h
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
+ g) y/ @4 h! w+ \/ T X+ u9 e+ qlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the; x& ]# `1 P8 }6 @# h
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,$ L& ]9 ?/ b6 Z
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute
`5 G0 ?5 R5 J3 H4 R. ~' k! e! a. m& D) M5 H
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and; `' ]/ _% H& g
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide3 ^0 O5 Y9 ]9 I! u( ^+ n4 K
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
0 T4 W# j, l$ H% F) ]9 p# M1 [thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more9 m3 j V5 `% T4 t
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
/ @ {* p$ \- w5 Hdisciplines.
- A9 }# d4 c K9 q The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
/ R# ]0 l7 |* MWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
" c5 t, T+ a; R bCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
2 b1 f/ H" B* q: Cnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be& h/ S& P% q; l
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,2 b- N1 e+ o: ?: G4 b
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
! W( P8 Y0 A: N7 FHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,6 @' I, v$ H2 J; I
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
( C8 ?- K# d- Q! N% X4 Tcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on* O: @( G. E m/ ]1 ?+ S. n
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.0 G( ~9 M/ |+ k% S& R2 U6 x
1 Q( A9 @ ?# v, u
' ?1 D$ P1 x' E! L7 ?) i
+ C; X4 M/ [5 Q
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,2 `5 P0 E9 R3 I) X
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
$ \ g) s& u3 A/ X4 \) F; Ehttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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* T7 @8 x/ P% k2 l* O[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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