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Attention Real Estate Reporters: - H6 A8 F! g+ t( X
7 I4 |2 P" j& o9 MDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
2 M" J/ w; {- z, q4 P TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US6 C1 N m2 c' C2 S
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
- L( r$ @, x& f/ Pas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging! I% \ C6 p4 {+ I8 C+ j
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)0 ?0 G f# s. c$ R
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more6 u- H% D2 j/ D2 W9 U
upbeat.
6 u0 h7 @! a+ u$ K0 w% {/ G" J Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
1 \; W( p- j$ ?% L7 r0 i5 Pannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
$ k$ A- i) E3 e; T& I. Ninterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
3 }3 P. F5 y$ R2 \estate experts, including investors, developers, property company0 }; Z$ g& \9 d# b- u& C
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
& u( z( U6 o+ d3 D" ZOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
3 t; J6 e- v% O' b+ [/ `- U' W2 d% }including Asia Pacific and Europe.
( d5 H: E# W5 y: B! s7 b2 R3 f6 t According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian. n/ }! K/ |2 e9 C
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
5 o: z2 x7 O, m g7 {. l$ ~environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
! ^2 ]3 m: a/ E, B" y4 Bbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
3 ~/ f/ ?& }. \$ Nhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
# P/ k. ]# @2 T5 `1 x( M! k q According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
- M8 S# h: W7 b- ^border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
* n: U! C" u R. w6 X5 E7 [- sspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
0 q3 K. D: z. b c% Wremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US/ Q- E% H6 G5 w# I3 E
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be' q/ K* Q3 A) b9 V% ^& d
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.1 H# \3 a5 @& F6 R$ v5 d; ^
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
& T6 v7 Y- y! {7 \respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
5 y5 h5 E! v& p& x" ~+ _commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land+ [3 W8 c& O K5 W8 I4 |- C( e
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
( ^ x0 l6 K a8 E$ ^: Oespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating% c# M1 q1 E5 @' v! h5 X4 ]
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
0 t, R# _# J) t Presidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
4 M \8 \& K" g1 N$ btake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
% g/ t4 a) \; hsingle-family housing looks overpriced.1 V+ ~! K3 L1 f7 s0 ~% B
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with4 f: F+ G6 s& |( n; m
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
: h4 r: q: Q! ~$ ?metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
; g4 j. h& e- K: R8 X5 ~higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting& S% c' w; @ b/ r1 S
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,0 `8 Z7 v; g7 G* N
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
+ S0 Z% h: r2 k* T5 Qapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary7 s0 _- S w9 k. s4 o/ g; |) q+ Y
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing' R. |7 h9 `) b8 H' |
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into4 a. K+ e4 }+ @$ O+ s5 c( @: @
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development F* E! \9 z. Y
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
6 q) Y5 D0 c U9 E7 F. o( u& j
- C" E& A5 R0 v4 t Canadian Markets to Watch) d, j, V* ^% z5 _. s
0 N( I0 X* _. O& T$ R The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central# r+ o( z4 ]& s2 E
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour; g' j: I- B& h: _
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
# X& T6 U! W; q5 Q5 C, uinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in" Y; Y0 K0 N/ _: r y, E% [
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical6 j' H: j% g, w1 Z# ]( W+ [# r
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
0 Y" x- [# v$ U2 ~$ `west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment6 F: A& ]7 F" V) N
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
% G9 q1 B' w0 S- y" L3 cwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
' I9 u. q" X* l) Q% s% nToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
' L+ x3 ~' i- j& H4 g& L$ b* _4 Nratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.9 `) _6 K! n7 x
5 b8 a* h; {( z Calgary/Edmonton8 {, N/ y0 N1 ^+ O# P
+ q# J3 e. d. v Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one" y8 [0 C: d/ @" W
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a& s _$ p5 Q2 O% D9 j4 V% [# l+ M
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,+ X" K& J( q) @3 }! l! _
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
4 D, X2 Z' J! \# P: A3 i" M* ^Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
8 R1 l0 ]$ v6 |2 O6 N2 [: nHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the H9 R, u& R- G. }
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
* X; f) L( [, e; m" j5 Cstrong, this market will continue to do well.( P# N" r8 x t) s3 D( [$ V
4 |! B1 q1 i; S3 B1 L Vancouver5 E$ z' {7 c: Z/ H
* E" v; P' A! i+ c& S
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
9 R, W0 f( S6 Ubooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
! w0 ~ y. `" G0 b0 Z) mreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
! |2 T: ^/ b' ^3 X# l; lmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a) i; j$ z6 E& e' H. b% v
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy& x/ p8 w- V4 Z* m( r- M/ I% s r3 J
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
5 X! w' v. X0 Mfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%" M3 `. b9 Z. o
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
. {$ x, w( u! @8 w/ Rgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.: Q$ r" B( x0 z' Y, C' n
. I; @1 ? w0 c: x G Toronto
6 S; z7 Z0 w( N) c9 ~+ ? u
2 o) V0 [: V: V0 y. b# l: I9 } Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and8 ?# N7 D$ E* Q# M4 o
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is, k) d- R1 e K* t& `5 a8 E5 f
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing# G, C4 r: D* b/ v0 ^% z( w$ b
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.1 d" Q, T u/ Z- y: |
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square, P- M1 h8 r& ~3 t+ t/ t
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and% W3 Z) g5 `1 [: `7 A7 ?7 g j) p
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.* t- k4 Q7 G& G! g5 b! W
& b0 n8 D, i7 _ Montreal7 t" |! @: z/ a9 t) H8 @
+ A6 ?+ M3 h- T/ V
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall4 p8 r S. ]: v8 b5 r6 H) d
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up7 p/ d9 J3 o3 E6 ~
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in+ ?4 i: {* M% e3 j; g
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate0 `7 t; ]. Z$ ^2 T
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
# Y+ D8 M7 T2 ahigher as a "hold" recommendation., V0 n7 B+ V5 ]. {
. d& m& m5 P/ g. Z G The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years' ]* J+ ~3 V- {4 n- u" |
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
8 v' g* T% N; }* Y7 [* s, Jmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
% t A7 y: |8 ~: b" U# ynear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest; B7 |" r6 I( L u! F" C
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current9 L: k8 w7 U0 T, N) Q
prices."
0 O& y5 I0 |' Q- B' A4 G, O A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
9 q5 {7 B$ H' m/ iwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
% ^4 z. E' B3 B! b2 `- U6 z
+ E% s3 _2 t! C1 i% E About PricewaterhouseCoopers
5 K. c Z* S" n1 G0 j) D
& j. n: b; B( T% i' @$ I! v8 ` PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,- \' u2 b+ c9 j: I
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its& b9 X- s/ L# t9 v- G( L1 E
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
* r/ c! N# S3 R+ F2 N# r3 Cacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop- H1 K9 L" p2 Q" v/ E, A
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
9 X. N4 D2 S' G' Fexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
( q1 O: d# U7 O2 y! C* A& |related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the4 w( N2 h3 E) @3 o# t
country.0 P! l( i: r* }$ v) s5 H' H" T
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario' N5 {# s" W7 l6 l
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the/ N& s% e# Y! q0 q9 M8 Z
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
5 ~4 [; e$ ]' ceach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
" E% ~3 Z% D, \3 ^; x
7 T [2 K9 o( Y# a About the Urban Land Institute
0 W( y6 x3 x7 L) U& u+ I& j4 G4 \
# c& G- W$ I; v" R The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
' D; u+ J" ~ f, q6 A: M, ?research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
$ e+ r( {+ ~9 a0 n7 V- N# vleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating& U3 @! X$ c% i; J+ g- o! D8 g
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
; z5 j4 x9 U2 T+ ]than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development; C% z. B5 i. p& D
disciplines.
' O* b6 {, r, Q The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
+ B) Q: G0 o& u7 aWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District, x/ J9 W. Z" o# f. N/ H
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
2 o& Q9 i) o& N( u) Gnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be! e0 f" ?, z* U5 ], J8 A
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,( Y$ R+ E) s2 S! j- U
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake8 o3 i* Q6 T5 ~8 z
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,5 ~$ o. [/ z9 z( {% F8 N' S$ c& l
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
0 u; i4 V V wcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
9 y' h. x8 \! V# Q8 bthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066. E& a8 f4 `; [/ s2 D L
0 O2 ~/ v9 J- x) s/ G/ W2 _2 w, P2 w! E8 Y9 W
1 V: g+ [6 k$ U( [, YFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
7 y3 G; O5 L& A/ s) g) Y(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
0 G& J$ L, G& J( _4 b+ ~http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html( B2 Q# b1 L9 i. H' ^+ z
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