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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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( n) u" U7 a( e* ^( ]) BDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
' Y) h5 O5 p8 R, y TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
`+ j. ]$ I" k* Vcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern; U+ Y: i+ p2 E# [4 J, \- v( \5 D! U4 G. I
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging/ f! n5 ?5 V% ^) y7 M
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
$ }5 @% R/ p# p, E7 k0 Z" k4 k% vand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more0 y8 A& b6 X1 ~ i9 |
upbeat.
5 |, B( B' |. K Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded7 y) t3 F% [4 d2 C4 U/ \: u) m" E
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects3 }) g# j( H) c9 Y; @% n
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
. K2 p* M/ @' O7 S8 Mestate experts, including investors, developers, property company8 A6 r) o+ V* w1 E, b" g
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.! M( N0 W! \8 x, m5 Y% S; |+ Q6 O* Y6 k
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world5 D) c/ s! w+ C. d
including Asia Pacific and Europe." k( }. Q# t9 o0 T8 t. o
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
9 w N" r& D3 R6 @! g3 J. sReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
$ g% A0 W9 k+ ^# e( U: x+ genvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to* V0 a; P; Q' X) A2 U+ u
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record8 D+ ^( X/ j/ L+ r
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."! q1 A! u, {. ~2 r8 P' h! w
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
/ ]9 C H J3 G% `border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
3 {* N; c. }+ F# [/ f M( d2 uspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
7 \3 X# L3 A6 K: z2 k& g, Q4 Sremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US4 U& Z& r8 Y5 o% ^. \- X" }5 f
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be) i& N+ X9 H7 S* p$ S5 U8 X
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.- {; r; O# k$ m) W. p! ^
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
4 O. K; G% _5 Q4 Hrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
, @0 O3 J8 `* Q9 `- rcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land0 b3 M4 e2 v, R8 K) l* T
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country: n5 w0 v2 E3 T
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating. I9 b- e0 o: s( ^0 O
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The9 G$ s9 g+ k5 v
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
0 j7 x+ ^) Q, n+ `2 N# h! Htake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and5 s. s; O* z5 W; g- A
single-family housing looks overpriced.
8 J( {4 G! ~- I& b; G. m- _ Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
3 l( q" e4 M6 G& j; ^! c+ ltenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian( R& V5 J6 \* c: }
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
8 J& f# Q3 F% Q6 M/ s0 t' Q- }* thigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting' K. a) k: r$ e" p; h9 w ^
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
1 Q( }* G' K) P. {) Sand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
* m7 I; V% @9 A2 K5 ?7 q O5 \apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
5 Y( d7 J4 q' \; N+ D swestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
7 T3 x7 P/ U! V+ Y3 B( Gshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into/ p! v$ `& i7 e% z4 W) @5 u G
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
" y/ O7 E' L) z6 x% Fin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
# D, N! Z7 h6 M) I6 V& y/ z; ^& d' q7 ^
Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
" q ~1 Z* ~7 D: {$ hcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour9 A4 B$ Z! @0 i( u2 r- Y
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
, j; H8 `1 l0 ^6 ~into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
6 U5 n% f' O \& B/ b1 Odowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
- _1 U& z2 y/ `projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out* A" f4 i9 c$ l8 Z4 E
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment0 N* {6 u6 q( n( N3 e6 N
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
7 n7 n1 i5 I0 K" ]- |whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
& ~6 l" z2 b( u3 p# r7 C$ o0 hToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
8 f) Q) S4 ~0 a7 Fratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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: B9 p9 w$ \6 Q4 H9 H/ b Calgary/Edmonton9 h! Z* u- } w7 j1 m
7 B V) z- `/ ]8 q Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
7 y, M+ l2 l& Sboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
[- J; g& x$ d7 w5 L1 o1 Bbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,+ _8 s: t4 M' c2 L# ?6 R/ X
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.7 K3 j2 d! q- |9 ~* {: w, T- v3 H; p
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale W0 U% l, \3 j8 r1 H' T7 i; e
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the- e: g6 R9 w1 @, x, O. s
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays8 |; x( V- M* U5 t+ O- X
strong, this market will continue to do well./ K- {2 Z& U4 d1 \( o0 ~
1 [1 j3 s" q, o( h
Vancouver
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6 ~& J* n: H9 k8 T2 C, A Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is3 k0 f- m9 m' p1 n
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous0 P ]/ D; w5 Y2 y% ]% j8 U2 I3 o
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the& P2 }/ U$ X- U, L
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a1 u$ U1 \* t0 h# Q9 \/ Z1 Z
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
7 e. u( z+ Q5 E9 z Y0 Rrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
. A4 G8 l0 H# p) m# m, e# nfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%) `- k* m% m% F# C- z
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very. ~4 j3 Y" ` ~5 s' f' l# ~
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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8 Z$ P6 @4 W1 j Toronto
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( J) N& i6 j" V, U# ]% f Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and6 i4 I, @! f" ?0 F) ^3 Y z2 E
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
" {, L U/ v1 qrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
7 p5 N. n5 _9 B7 M" g/ Sindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
% E0 Q$ @+ o, t7 ^6 @8 g3 r9 ?2 {! k. @Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square- y+ \- I9 M. q8 ^- f
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
' K/ V/ M% w3 m1 R }" \7 sApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.1 ~0 j/ I5 v( E0 [, x' r- T$ j% p
# G3 Q: O6 f) i* R Montreal7 ~4 [* N& B& [, X) n* @! C" u
4 n- Q( m2 Z7 ~+ _! S4 K; A: J Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
7 j3 V+ {5 \! l" C5 B! Dgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
9 n9 h2 m5 \ r7 fshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in1 V! w: V: I5 f
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate; D' z! n( s ]2 \
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors) d% H3 d" \# V5 H! z' W
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years% W+ P1 Z( ?5 {6 I/ O. Z( R% w9 } R
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy# q+ S5 k# n2 u, Y) ~, R: U/ o; d
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
5 |" O, A1 `. q, Hnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
8 ?" ^; }3 l+ h: r! ~1 [overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current, ^- |2 P; L0 d! {8 v5 [, A
prices."" l6 n) F0 r8 N; _, E% a
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
1 a; Q* r) M6 ~; a6 m3 Qwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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( Q5 F% t7 U; C6 g. n0 K) q About PricewaterhouseCoopers e1 L3 s8 k$ v
, M Y" E& q9 f0 }" W5 B6 v$ e
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
3 l2 c0 @4 n! N3 Otax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
$ K# S0 h! c k& p* T1 Q0 ~1 Hclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
1 H6 _- K3 o' x) d+ Qacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop" L" t E" s+ b3 X- R+ ~7 C
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of0 K# k$ g3 @( o; U
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its# q3 g" M! s2 I$ S$ R6 q
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
: x4 z- u" E" }7 Z2 }& vcountry.
6 ?: M$ r# Y2 c7 n "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario0 p- z1 S' W/ ~' M
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
/ m* ]" |/ m$ g IPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
/ k* \. k, p i; T; yeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.. z5 ?8 t3 k/ k6 B5 x+ L
% A: c& H' b" r, ]' _9 x
About the Urban Land Institute( Z2 i4 }5 U/ \) X; r
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and- U% J8 V( y6 N) M
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
! ]% H# c7 Z1 e& c8 P% @leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating9 N" r, U; E6 T* S1 W
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
9 H- ]) | g' W' v6 gthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development2 V9 `# o" ^$ S2 G3 k5 {
disciplines.1 A a% _( k9 w1 f5 w% u
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
G8 |2 i; K9 _" {With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District7 h: `6 `+ l% ^: r
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
; \% W, d5 _3 Z1 n: y" {now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
5 {4 f. J7 y( L' M9 Hhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
: O/ R' T- x: \) \ A2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
' {$ A q* }$ i% F0 O r- qHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,( V/ H* N6 h- V2 Y+ K f( |) ~
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
7 Z8 O3 I3 J& ]5 Q% Pcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
# I# e8 s# {: T! F5 {* \the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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4 k0 d6 @; a8 ^* d4 T3 c7 {) K& `For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
; e. d9 f. `# V: ?3 J7 @(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com: V/ ]; s. Y( K- s+ u8 e
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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