Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
& d7 `' E- T- _! ^$ O8 H. SMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
3 ]# g' m- V/ s( K+ MIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
! y. @  \3 T5 P1 }- E: M5 N: c: o% [( T
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
0 D9 ^7 o0 _3 Y$ T2 r7 X: p
+ r. h& u6 i0 _/ N8 [% ?! |! j* FAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
7 Q$ U. u  B- @2 l3 b/ j NA
& K+ m% q; |9 l- v% n. B3 J9 v, \ 2328
- ?5 B, X1 Q1 ~. T2 G! E9 ~5 }! x  @! v& z 717
442,752
: D! o( y) ~# {' f* } 410,000
320
. K, \3 t2 E2 \0 {/ @+ H9 O, l 28
31%
. \/ l% p/ L( r* @$ h
& \, w' G/ V! w) [! W' WJun 2007
; ~5 |! }7 e, L8 X( `' n$ ?& H NA
/ o( Y  ~' s2 b' d# r8 N 2661
3 T/ Y# x4 F  [3 |; @ 1011
5 a% g! _. Z  e# Z7 X 442,817
409,000
328
) ?$ h2 H1 R# d% G5 k 22
  c/ R7 G1 y4 P, t* r- v# V6 l8 P 38%
( l) O) G* g; {. s! V- g7 p
- V9 {- \3 u0 P. v% SMay 2007
NA
2288
, s  Y' h* \; x4 e9 q# Z  \/ {& ` 1261
. [$ E" k: v# a* B- T( |, K7 I2 }8 ? 451,216
415,000
1 F; d3 v9 F8 _+ w3 p. h* s7 b 322
19
) c- M, D7 W, g( R. G- j 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

  m5 c4 Y; k  l6 I
. \0 Z: f! Y" q用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
7 V7 Q( X2 l4 C8 d4 k0 Q$ {2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
* {6 l$ L5 n/ [. D3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

& G9 t8 z+ p, o4 A7 S5 E! v# K新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

, ~& ]& q* V) t7 z) a就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
) @' H# D$ t& a* Z# NDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

3 V  C& O  _( G3 n1 L! H

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
% |, R5 g1 C: q% p5 m$ J6 k6 C  VIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
+ }% P. E, x" l8 {$ H, RHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
9 p# h4 a. G( A3 C# f5 w8 A. fThat is what i say half full or half empty.
" S6 f- S9 k$ Y* N( bgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
, u% E; n/ u3 s1 R" @/ Y$ T1 V: ]Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

; _9 Y  C+ W; N  J8 b
) p% K8 o: Z; f+ S2 n) M6 @6 CI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
/ ^% @; g4 N# l: oEdmonton Single Family Home
5 D2 O& f2 S( \; b5 bMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
1 o) S( i5 c) G. v' E4 N6 bIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
' S% E/ g% I: R" ]9 V6 pNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

5 A8 J7 I% }6 H; t7 W  O" r- D0 u2 G" lQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
1 {6 M* e9 c# @2 n/ O: P: {; S" g! _# W

3 _3 i* k& w. T  ^I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

" p8 }/ B& |4 `( F

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
& `5 A: I( O' J, O: e' r  E3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
( M" E. S/ b7 E8 o( ?/ e

6 ^! y/ O; X1 L" ~* R; V
' R  l* h, Z- S只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
8 p; X) i1 ~" q% V2 {$ w看来，观察days inventory 更重要。