Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
* P& u* n; }4 ~  P% n( WMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
" w  p7 P$ a% y- ]0 bIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
! [9 n$ W% T+ U7 p6 T3 R
4 ~% o3 U$ Q8 }* b5 T5 OOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

  ]! `: d* m1 C/ @8 }1 ^% XSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
9 Y8 ^! Q  q" B6 {
6 ]& _% z% ]: e+ \1 I1 i9 dJul 2007
  q) v# S* t9 N6 |; {; ` NA
2328
717
3 j# k' u; F" o. L1 R4 M, x 442,752
410,000
320
+ {8 j6 P/ ?, Z/ R: D4 F' ]4 Q5 U 28
5 j% v) U' _7 ~. a' ~$ {3 u 31%

4 q8 G* v) g2 n3 a+ `9 E3 ^( ?Jun 2007
/ m- m! \9 M; Y% M; k3 ^ NA
) I5 f+ v6 C6 Q0 y 2661
, |6 {# h) B8 K$ ] 1011
442,817
409,000
7 p6 D) H- }  V. D5 K 328
22
2 Y" m" K0 t! T* Z: u 38%

4 k7 x+ z4 g$ B, L2 z5 B' VMay 2007
NA
2288
1261
/ \2 d% K& S3 @2 ~ 451,216
415,000
322
2 V# j+ d  y' }! ^/ C" a/ F6 F5 ~ 19
( z, d2 R+ M8 ?- U1 {  y 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
5 I3 y1 K4 I1 W- b0 o* E5 E这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
* s5 F, Z( h% e0 l鉴定完毕！

1 g6 u) u( M1 D& q- h
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 R- U3 Z/ @& ^6 F& L9 }2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
$ A- Z* H9 `  ]* U鉴定完毕！

. N9 S4 L7 F* f' N呵呵，太不专业了吧。

5 w4 s2 ~4 \1 b新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
7 g% n5 n* f8 a4 R9 E/ v
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
2 ^! N8 r+ ^+ m; n7 Y/ c
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
* }; `2 k( @: Z. }Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
: ?! f0 v* N2 i5 i0 PIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
& _! J) M  D/ ]/ H' IHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
. Y' j: n- t7 w* j/ PThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
% P4 s% j0 f& j( B. E; RIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
& D4 q( x& |: ?- B8 g0 |1 {. ~
: m* Q) g- D2 _4 H1 W% H4 |
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

' R" r  G& \/ J% w

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
9 w, }4 l5 ]; ^1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
7 H- n% Q( R/ X0 J: n2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
3 g4 S5 b* @( Y2 `


8 N1 M- {: U* |只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。