Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
1 ?1 c6 }2 Z; i! m8 a+ r8 T
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

* W; g+ X( N$ a: W- z. O  r! K. p% PAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
$ c( T- n- c+ \3 l3 H
Jul 2007
NA
2328
717
, B6 b% \5 R$ K/ L 442,752
0 L3 Z" L' A0 F/ \1 N 410,000
320
28
31%
2 U) `& Z6 h3 Q. e; E
Jun 2007
NA
; x1 t, c: ?* p+ ~ 2661
1011
+ t) M& t! \3 g6 `, b# O: y 442,817
# `$ Z( x& o2 f( n! _ 409,000
328
5 t! T2 Z5 C& D/ p, M9 ?* t 22
38%

' B0 Z* V# l9 G/ X* N+ y4 sMay 2007
4 Q( `& f4 Z; u; f) J NA
' H0 B* a( U  H5 r/ l 2288
1261
451,216
  n9 d; h: ~/ q% }! O- s( `' B 415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
! R1 |& j- f4 _' _这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
' f1 d# T% R% }5 b6 M存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
8 c' g+ u, @  g" i9 d' G6 Y鉴定完毕！

: N: {, o0 ^7 a6 l用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
5 f& B; L/ s1 }2 v3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

  b& C+ ?5 Y$ Z* J7 ?4 x7 _呵呵，太不专业了吧。
4 Z. c3 \9 `5 }; ~
8 g7 m+ w2 S' x新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
" Z1 p8 Q  f$ s! e0 m" m2 Q$ Q3 J1 r
( n" U: u  B( {  T! c就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
. S/ P! x" V& u5 p6 Q! o) s" w: X
  G+ O$ D0 \+ |! Z0 }9 B这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

; K% s! g$ S* Z; }4 m5 Y  D

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
7 B! ~8 V# N- s# _1 rDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

( k# B# k9 {. G

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
* x% j3 o9 ?1 v* e7 z( oThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
/ \& f# ~7 f! V& O3 h1 d0 SIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
6 _% Q3 i# \% [2 g" TIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

9 ?/ _2 H0 D2 {2 C  O, p  d' N
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
( U9 R! f/ A; ^. x' e. ^; [  MMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
! H; C8 J9 H5 X2 B1 CIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
7 V0 x- F4 `0 rNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

) r) Z2 h$ t' C# O# vQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


7 {6 Z7 Q$ C2 V2 C, w" U* C. A0 B. hI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
; h' A4 Q2 K* Q2 _, T1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
4 j' h' P+ G$ ^, t: q& N8 P" }3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。