做点有意义的事情——算账

紫光

首先申明，我不是托，只是借这两个房子帮大家算算账。
0 @$ q/ a1 d! l' j0 Y% Bhttp://www.mls.ca/PropertyDetail ... ;PropertyID=6242412
http://www.mls.ca/PropertyDetail ... ;PropertyID=6183758
这两个房子，一个27.4万，一个26.9万，都是全新的，都在我们中国人最喜欢的西南区，都至少还有50-70年的使用时间。
我们取个平均数26.5万——这两个房子都有可能以这个价格买到。
" W$ q1 i& Z0 w$ T* g3 F如果你手里有2万块down payment——没有的，有个7-8千也行（我买第一个房子的时候，帐上就只有7000多，买了个singlehouse,具体怎么办的，这里就不讲了。）
也就是，你要借24.5万，40年的 amortisation term（等下再讲为什么选40年）,利率5.5%锁定5年（到处拿得到）。
- y9 f7 ]6 e" d6 |你每个月要付：1263.64
当然还有condo费150-200 但是一般包水电，所以也就多付100，税60-80
6 Q0 H- [$ q) `* W  b: v  J3 Q- F一个月总计1443.64
6 N4 k- V4 J/ ]: W5 o现在一般一个20-30年旧的condo（不是指apartment）,也要1100-1200，而且房租你不能锁定5年不涨。
/ p( t5 ^* B1 ~7 L——如果你想住和上面一样质量的现在的市场价是1500。
——我们大家在中国都不是住这样的房子也个个觉得挺美的吗？
——难道真的每个月多付了300-400块就影响了你享受生活？

$ v- Q1 d0 \# }1 g" \9 y( \9 l再谈谈为什么选40年：因为condo只是一个继续向前迈进的跳板，等你有条件，或者真的象同志们所期望的房价大跌的时候，你想买房子。可以把它租出去，银行在计算你的借款金额的时候会自动抵消——不count你这个condo的借款。
等于就是说你拥有两套房子，但有一套是别人在帮你付mortgage。
4 \" M% _3 f+ D别以为那些炒房子的有多高妙，他们也就是比你多看到、想到了这一点点。
如果你要搬到别的城市去怎么办？或卖或租啊，道理同上，不影响你在别的城市置业。除非你相信将来卖也卖不掉，租也租不出。
" A6 Z! C) s" K/ S! Y
要是还没想明白，没关系，砖只管拍！
我一朋友有句话我很欣赏：我来加拿大的时候就带了2万，大不了我就再带2万块回去。
因为我们没有他的这种决心，所以现在也就只能在这里谈谈房子了。

littlezhu

what about property tax and insurance?

紫光

原帖由 littlezhu 于 2007-10-12 22:36 发表
what about property tax and insurance?

看贴要仔细，我已经算了税，至于保险那几十块钱，你要想算就自己把它加上。

smalleagle

哪个银行现在有5.5%锁定5年的贷款呢?

大头熊

算来算去，还是买不起。
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0 i3 g) t- W7 u

Z

有几点疏忽：
$ s& Y6 O: B9 b" |1 V  f
1）5.5%最多保5年。在5年结束的时候如果按揭是9%怎么办？莫说我抬杠，我要抬杠就说15%了。
- X* A8 B8 B6 ~/ `# Y
0 r% H1 f5 L9 ^$ I2）破旧的condo可以租这么多，不代表你新的也可以租这么多。几十年旧的往往地段都超级好。那个谁谁不是说过地段地段地段嘛？

, p9 v3 Y' a: w$ r3）新condo开工量还在持续增加，今年9月是1300套嘛，比去年9月的500多是双倍不止，就是说你看到的模式别人也看到了。大家都盖condo，无论是租是买，供应量增加迅速，你要出租必须面对竞争。

4）机会成本浪费。房地产收租长期回报是8%，如果加杠杆可以更高点。我不认为你可以比Boardwalk这样的公司做的更好。我要是看好地产租金的话，何不自住一套，透出equity，购买Boardwalk这样的REIT？省时省力，转手容易，收益更高。
$ N. z9 F2 N0 f

附Boardwalk走势图。别忘了每年还有现金红利。
0 {7 ]0 Y9 v% M6 ?0 w% W
5 @( \1 i" b+ `http://investdb.theglobeandmail. ... ;pl_long_movement=0

[ 本帖最后由 Z 于 2007-10-13 08:47 编辑 ]

MYQF

管理费,卖出的时候都非常的低,目的为了卖房,150-200,但是,一两年后,开始大涨.

acsm6

就是，贷款5年期限，5年后呢？

Crassula

insurance is covered in condo fee

Crassula

You can get the detail how the condo fee calculated from the board, there will be no major increase in one or two years like you think. If you have owned condo before, you wouldn't say that.
; q/ q4 v0 @% }6 ]; x& \Most of the condos in downtown are 25-35 years old, they are only $350-430/month. New condo will have less condo fee.

Crassula

1）5.5%最多保5年。在5年结束的时候如果按揭是9%怎么办？莫说我抬杠，我要抬杠就说15%了。
Please show us when there was 9% for 5 year fixed in the history.
  G" v2 R& n( d9 h8 f2）破旧的condo可以租这么多，不代表你新的也可以租这么多。几十年旧的往往地段都超级好。那个谁谁不是说过地段地段地段嘛？
South west is good location
3）新condo开工量还在持续增加，今年9月是1300套嘛，比去年9月的500多是双倍不止，就是说你看到的模式别人也看到了。大家都盖condo，无论是租是买，供应量增加迅速，你要出租必须面对竞争。
Some one has said that two year ago, so what, I rent one of mine with 1550/month in May.
- R( g6 z; Z3 L7 c4）机会成本浪费。房地产收租长期回报是8%，如果加杠杆可以更高点。我不认为你可以比Boardwalk这样的公司做的更好。我要是看好地产租金的话，何不自住一套，透出equity，购买Boardwalk这样的REIT？省时省力，转手容易，收益更高.
Do you know Boardwalk they hire people to manage it, which means they have to pay them.
With 20% down, rent cover interest and tax and condo fee. house price increase 5% every year, please tell us what is the return in 10 years.

Chinson

高人.有胆量,有谋略,有经验.

紫光

原帖由 Crassula 于 2007-10-13 20:38 发表
- f, X% \. `9 b+ H' {1 P/ ~, S1 I1）5.5%最多保5年。在5年结束的时候如果按揭是9%怎么办？莫说我抬杠，我要抬杠就说15%了。
9 n  x( x% K: B" k7 `: [Please show us when there was 9% for 5 year fixed in the history.
2）破旧的condo可以租这么多，不代表你新的也 ...

谢谢帮我回复！

laojianghu

morgage利率就高起来.80年代的时候,morgage利率高达20%,各位想不到吧?
( {/ Z$ K! g3 Y+ M+ J0 U9 u5.5%怎么保证锁40年???
& j3 C3 G  f2 O' h2 v% d* Z; `6 s40年内怎么保证你不失业???

Crassula

prime rate is not the same as 5 year fixed rate, prime rate fluctuate more often than the 5 year fixed rate. 5, 10, 15 year fixed rate are linked to the long term bond.
- B6 m" H/ l8 [4 ]The average 5 year fixed rate in the last 25 years is 5.8 in US. If your income is above average, it will be lower than 5.8.  Average 5 Year fixed rate in Canada in the last ten years is 5.3.
If you are unemployed, you have nothing if you rent.
If you own a house, you can have home line credit to survive.

紫光

原帖由 Bear_031X 于 2007-10-12 23:06 发表
算来算去，还是买不起。

: g( o3 \% l3 M5 Y7 |6 n

要是1500一个月也付不起，那的确要看跌……

Z

原帖由 Crassula 于 2007-10-13 20:38 发表
, o+ y# {8 u2 T4 I2 U7 K0 B
( i- B4 W# ?! [3 l% t$ V; T( h  j0 PPlease show us when there was 9% for 5 year fixed in the history.

加拿大央行的利率记录网页：
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/sel_hist.html
6 ?  @9 f/ R, ^( w4 O2 z
. [- q) \) u% b; w# I0 H/ G; J其中有CMHC统计的5年期锁定利率历史：
    * Average Residential Mortgage - 5 years - V122497 -- Jan. 1951
1 s2 X) u% i9 e2 j0 c8 V  W8 Ghttp://www.bankofcanada.ca/pdf/annual_page52_page53.pdf

" J$ @$ W& D6 }# d( g& U& b以1月数据为准
1951-1968之间18年小于9%；
1969-1993，和1995，共26年大于9%；
1996-2006，和1994，共12年小于9%.
. k1 _8 B7 e9 u/ E4 P0 L- x  x
. b4 N+ F! n# p: W) z  |) M4 `0 c总共这56年，有17年在7%以下（不含），有20年在10%以上（不含），有19年在7%到10%之间（含）。

总结，LZ设定40年按揭，却假设5.5%的利率，属于痴人说梦。
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[ 本帖最后由 Z 于 2007-10-14 09:50 编辑 ]

小曲

原帖由 Crassula 于 2007-10-13 22:38 发表
prime rate is not the same as 5 year fixed rate, prime rate fluctuate more often than the 5 year fixed rate. 5, 10, 15 year fixed rate are linked to the long term bond...
% R: {$ q9 H" XIf you are unemployed, you have nothing if you rent.
; W; e% r$ z7 q8 L2 CIf you own a house, you can have home line credit to survive.

. E, k$ F4 `4 R- q% ~0 pAbsolutely right!:

Crassula

If you cannot read what is the rate in the report, on wonder you don't dare to buy. those are posted rate, most of the buyers will get at least 1 point lower, and my rate in 2004 and 2005 were only 4.05--- 4.25%. Again, those without house really can talk.

Crassula

Most of the posted 5 years rate in 5 big banks now are 7.45. You can easily get 5.5-5.6.  I hope those without house do not regret after they learn about this.

eagle2007

原帖由 Crassula 于 2007-10-14 10:37 发表
If you cannot read what is the rate in the report, on wonder you don't dare to buy. those are posted rate, most of the buyers will get at least 1 point lower, and my rate in 2004 and 2005 were on ...

* V6 T! O, ~3 ?$ {6 z你三年前的rate对现在和以后有什么参考意义? 2003 6.25  FED P discounted to 1.00%, now it is 4.75%.
你dare to buy, 现在list 这么多,你可以happy happy 的去buy了啊,你最好能把list buy下来 4000, haha.

[ 本帖最后由 eagle2007 于 2007-10-14 11:28 编辑 ]

eagle2007

原帖由 Crassula 于 2007-10-14 10:44 发表
' B! |: A  {9 g, @( DMost of the posted 5 years rate in 5 big banks now are 7.45. You can easily get 5.5-5.6.  I hope those without house do not regret after they learn about this.

$ a# |4 |# [4 e3 m$ g& d; e8 _

) o% m# b3 l$ G( @- ]really wonder how to get 5.5-5.6 FIXED from 5 big banks now.

Crassula

the point is that the report is not the real rate, ask anybody who bought in 2004,2005 and first half of 2006. Those have donwpayment this spring and don't dare to buy are those regreted, i guess you are not one of them.

Crassula

Well, I guess it also depends on what is your down, your income and credit.

eagle2007

原帖由 Crassula 于 2007-10-14 11:28 发表
+ z9 D7 f7 E7 B1 S( rthe point is that the report is not the real rate, ask anybody who bought in 2004,2005 and first half of 2006. Those have donwpayment this spring and don't dare to buy are those regreted, i guess ...

8 B  V% s  v7 u: @: R* I
. H0 ]  o$ z, [: C4 h( Q/ V5 aRegret regret regret, you are staying away from the point. We are here talking about the overpriced house.   Hope you have some other things enough to satisfy your inquisitiveness in the life.
BTW, I came here at last summer.

Crassula

so what, to me the same, homeless. The point is the the rate is posted rate instead of real rate.

eagle2007

原帖由 Crassula 于 2007-10-14 11:30 发表
Well, I guess it also depends on what is your down, your income and credit.

I bet 100 here you can NOT get 5.5-5.6% 5 years FIXED from big 5 bank now.

eagle2007

原帖由 Crassula 于 2007-10-14 11:48 发表
so what, to me the same, homeless. The point is the the rate is posted rate instead of real rate.

- R/ f1 d3 k- h
You are keep stay away from the point. Your point is "there is no fixed 5 term over 9% " which has been approved as a pile of such kind  crap.
Everyone was or is homeless. That is not shame to me and to other decent people. I would be really shame if I spent any money on the overpriced house this spring.

Crassula

I really want to bet with you. However, all my credit has been condos. I could not get another loan even I am willing to pay 10% interest. I did get the impressive rate this May, 5.05%. Let me post your next reply here if I am not mistaken.
"I bet 100 here you are lying"

Crassula

Nobody should be shame of homeless, people in the forum are either house-owner or homeless.
Those want the market to go down, only because they want to be house-owner soon. no surprise.