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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.# w: q; V8 G3 I
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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% h# j( Y9 R# ]7 r0 zThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.  v+ `* {& J* w0 @, V0 t
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.% f$ y$ O, P; F- R3 x4 ?

+ g' }  F# T3 b  |% m2 W"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year., x$ L3 F) w+ a; z5 F! W1 [3 Q/ h( L
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Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. $ y9 s2 F/ |9 M0 J! X* j" T

) g: H+ t$ ^& ?' c, ~' hhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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! j/ C6 B. T2 e$ [+ y/ c. R8 `[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
$ A. n' N' v/ B6 }; P" I4 ~ 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。2 D/ M$ `' g3 j" o/ ]9 O8 H) W; |

* G' L. x. h& s9 O& q" H[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
" P2 ]: {' e! y5 B5 Q' Q" Q跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了" Y; _& ~+ n. N1 l0 ?
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta+ E: \  |$ L' ~. i
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its! p; M/ p* ~. Q; l$ b! J
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
. o, A- D9 a5 z7 Xare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
6 |2 ~: x! P; h2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
( e. i8 D6 y5 t8 Q& i) v: l7 Dformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
- P" t1 E2 p6 }' z- }7 ^! U. Cfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
( {4 z  ~9 ]- H, `* _7 F$ N8 Gthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and
1 I; j1 R7 v; \' Y$ ]2 ymay even cease completely during 2009. The previous' B3 q( ^" \6 t
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
% N9 l, C6 c% _5 t7 ^; b% wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ H3 N  N2 \% V- W; a  P# H* \6 F
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& s# b% \- K. w$ q0 N$ K% O/ zprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
' p1 M& b' ]7 k. N) xyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
# E& v; H( B0 e$ Qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around, l$ O. f+ b8 i4 |9 m# m6 D8 Z: C
30,000 new households will form in the province during  n9 l# ^8 n3 w; O7 ^/ i
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.5 n' L6 Y& c. y8 e9 S4 k' J! b
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s" ^! ^9 Q6 A9 ]4 @7 J) ^- ?+ |: s
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%$ F& d) I8 D( n+ `9 Q" E3 Y/ w
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
! J* _. \6 I5 v. N6 w+ Z! |2 I4 Xhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
0 `- Y3 ~- @1 i# u% L% M3 zhouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals5 d' J! `; l1 Y" x+ C  p
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* R8 h/ U5 d. X  Q( B# Z0 I
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories. g% u& n  Z0 E. Z' {, l# C
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
2 [6 U4 A! b- Nexcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 b+ }# V! }$ l2 V1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a5 w! y! h+ j6 m% [4 q! N
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
% c  N  ~) @# P( Y/ U% o. Ubuyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
4 d& V9 t6 Z$ Y' q3 ~two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in2 _; S# f  Y4 M% j# q
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747# |0 G  N( F! X9 w, w+ W
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
. `& n: Y" e  @recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the3 z2 e$ ?/ S$ H. n- O, i! ?
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s. _+ c8 @$ J  W2 c0 W5 c
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
5 I8 e. P- n1 E# @of new singles, and, with demand having cooled/ b6 Q4 [( T. \, ~3 n
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( b0 B0 ~& F: N, r0 V# MThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s' G* O7 g' W  b7 P/ J+ j5 F
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
/ T- {, B4 B9 ^# B& E, S" t1 GAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan  d3 {. u* d- H7 V* ]. H  H
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced2 |* Y) ]% {0 n0 I# S5 K
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale8 @" n! |: b1 V( `; F  F
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
% ?# y+ E% M7 i1 Ithough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
& G5 u5 x1 W0 s2 y% lon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.% h* b# X# q1 h5 S4 I1 V
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
6 O! u: S6 t8 M4 n% jresale price in February is evidence that past prices
4 [# c4 g3 [+ Z0 pexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove8 G. G/ ^7 J5 m0 x2 v
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’% Y8 w) m- q% n! r! ]8 a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories," i7 H6 t$ P2 b+ W# G/ y8 E+ E
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%6 X  P$ r9 c3 b0 U
leg down over 2009.; p+ `0 i, }3 X

0 A% E7 d9 x2 R6 p[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
5 }9 P% k: G7 y! ?$ ~Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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- u7 G, G$ q4 l: Q* w$ Z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now. 8 F: o0 {3 c# o. ^- ^/ }7 U( E5 P5 s
翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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/ ^% |  i7 n4 N& Khttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments8 V0 ~8 q: t* [: Z
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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