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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.2 _2 X# B6 @& c/ [$ s
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TD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. $ g& x4 V( b. k: ^" x; N

- a- M# L- k- `6 Y" Y3 L, mThe report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
( z1 X' h4 V( h: \
4 U! Z$ v' M5 [+ D! C"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
/ {; X( r# e6 \2 a  c5 B! ^% d
5 S7 ]5 D$ D6 p% YNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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. n4 `* v  O' ATD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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4 O( v, V- m+ a! K) l% k, U"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said. / k5 t* K( ?8 [9 ~

+ ~4 }6 ]$ X: k: S9 ?; Z* Z+ HTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year./ t7 H2 {/ a- \2 O0 F

" k. M9 ]) A1 v  k5 y7 SMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008.
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7 C* q6 [2 }8 p( [7 o" Zhttp://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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( k  w1 {% y+ L; p7 K% [& GTD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
% G: L  H7 V3 ^! q! d6 q 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。
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3 ?! n7 l& M7 C  D5 O, {[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表
* d5 A  l& `* {6 e& H" }跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了* ^: q1 w; L1 T) L
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta
) e$ P. Y) O+ `) X1 n. [( H+ y* dWild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
( ]' S, X/ `3 o, A* |! O5 vboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton7 V8 ]  f7 w4 f, U
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 m0 \+ R; P0 ^' v6 F2 M. ]2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household  E4 E1 s$ Q6 ]6 ^/ x
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided- ^$ h; l6 ~5 H$ ^
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
* v4 I/ |& F: O! hthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and9 A) t1 m3 O* T6 r. l' t
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous% X$ g; l5 \$ n- e/ L* B3 M" a8 \
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
; E% L/ H$ v- U' k% Qprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined+ u# c: P9 G7 d% c  T! e2 h- H" h
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
) \. g( `2 e! p4 jprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
2 v& q! {7 T. g$ j: U1 zyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,, d- G% U6 J8 m: Q0 L; P3 X& i  N
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
( @( t4 K" A2 _: O: C30,000 new households will form in the province during
- @( X  [4 w- {; s$ V$ u2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.3 k  J8 F; {! `5 [! N/ w9 }5 K
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
; P" l' ~1 z0 c1 a. J# H$ Ehomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%6 l9 m8 Q8 W1 d( a, t
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta
+ K) c- v3 g4 K  Zhas approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
9 G1 v- d$ D2 K$ G) K0 e% V2 [households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals( v( d  z8 H0 F+ y$ `
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging* l/ F8 |( {2 e$ [) W
sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories2 N/ B9 @# n% S  R
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is: K8 }' y1 X/ g, I, P. K: }* t% V
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
/ [* |1 [4 p' a3 i1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
3 U+ X# L6 W, x  D: ?, n; psales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive6 d% O) p% D$ c2 L1 l& e% D. V6 e% Z  {
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
$ o& g8 Z' ?( ^$ f1 [9 H: i4 ^two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in: [/ Q1 b' @9 c! |" \) h" I+ p+ U
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
+ h# f' N% F# w3 O7 P* ^2 munsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest% P( g& t7 H5 G& E& m; U$ X
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
) P# u1 \  v1 }4 \% q! }resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s! Y  j0 Q6 G$ n
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
" b; e! |4 J! r  W. D: A! L- Kof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
1 _, ~3 l# q) Y4 a" Qrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated./ z" K7 ~2 O- G' v# K
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
, ]' I. U5 |2 T" E3 U7 I/ H: uboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
# |+ \( o; E1 h" v/ ^. aAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
9 r# Q* D) k/ J, k! [% zhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
' s, L5 H2 v" ^relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
# s6 z" A6 S2 s. z  ?3 Lprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
5 u. |. Y( o7 ^) Rthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
9 L9 g( W/ g  Q" I8 N6 oon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.7 A7 S. {/ W8 i' t) H2 s
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
( }4 @# b1 W- B( w+ Y* wresale price in February is evidence that past prices; y6 q5 Y+ ?/ t  u, q* n: [
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
) F+ y8 ?! l( X- G3 U9 |8 _homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’& V  s9 T' W/ J, |/ b) a
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
6 r8 z, g+ N9 z# t9 aAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" d" c: I$ {; Q. t0 [
leg down over 2009.# b0 G. o- I4 _4 r8 Q" z3 M# j( J" r' X
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 q( s0 G" A/ ]1 k% K" r4 x/ [
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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+ ?( w/ X( ^3 x  E* }& b, T3 r[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
9 L3 b# Z8 i5 \5 k2 C翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子4 O: D: K- y, z: L; w" B6 R

( l5 G+ d1 t1 phttp://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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