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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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! d1 ]) K# l5 `' m3 o) ]. h& eDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat * A( `+ L+ p- o) g$ V5 R; f
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
' [9 C. }' v6 o; g# gcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern( v/ U; p- M ^5 N' g: H; Y
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging$ \% v# p U$ x8 S2 v
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)( h4 F( [; }. ~+ U: u3 `! C7 x
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
' m3 s0 d' ]! E, lupbeat.4 y; r* ?: H, } x9 C
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded" w, K$ [. H- U: ^3 H
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects, o4 o7 ]7 c' f# L. u/ x5 d
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
# [+ V% A9 O6 }0 V+ j6 Y) Aestate experts, including investors, developers, property company4 Q# H( D( X8 z
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
4 C- O6 n; K0 G: w: a# POther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
* p' u* C& j; q+ Rincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
5 G5 c: \0 ~' K! L According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
1 D2 g3 F$ S% I/ H- AReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
0 w; t! `; x5 O9 henvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
& X B0 g# d8 h3 @& }be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record: c% W! V, s7 T& ?
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.") h# G! T3 O& R0 [% n3 d* Y
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
; l& f8 n) }1 y* Q2 [) |border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
% _/ [- Y& K; S; @speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
: i" C; M5 x0 e+ F) Eremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
2 n, q. P+ a6 P1 q+ bcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be/ {; j) }0 J/ W. C3 Z% o
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent./ G6 ~0 W" w( M$ j& z9 e; g$ z) v# J
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
; T0 f) n$ A4 L6 m4 B' ]respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
, L$ S" N* {( p$ q- S! O4 lcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
1 `1 o8 I+ q" m6 p- w/ Mdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country$ }% p+ j5 ]8 |( z# k6 T
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating$ s# L- i8 n/ {" T- a S% s6 Z
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The6 a! ^ Q- L. U$ u/ L8 {' @
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
1 R$ z% d, ^* t. f/ H$ g$ j7 l, ntake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
0 _. e: K$ x8 D+ e2 Y) `$ g+ T6 M& wsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
5 r, A4 a- d$ ?, x2 r. f/ y0 e6 I Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
. M) q c8 n) ^tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
) w6 E6 |; d$ X( Q3 {! q; kmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push6 U- Y' Q) Y$ n1 g- ?
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
9 [3 W6 F8 `7 Unew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
, q T' v$ w, E. J7 N0 l# Oand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental e9 y* X o* _/ J: r& d
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
6 }8 v6 V# n: K+ awestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
2 y2 _$ H) Q% O+ Q- B/ h7 o: D4 A% yshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
) x" X7 {, _( t% a- pthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
3 z( N; p1 F+ v, [3 p# ?in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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?2 F4 p) r/ b; B. B4 } Canadian Markets to Watch6 P0 q. Z5 U% t" v6 M) `( z
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
6 f) B" }; S' n) x5 pcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
0 O; w; B1 K9 H* ^neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back `- Q& f+ f5 p
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in, Y+ T" \6 c# R& l( _( H
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical, @+ B3 X% M# b- \( j
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
' `" R+ K+ T, s% C' A+ nwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
6 X8 c; S- q: o, J' \prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
0 _) W S, K) G& R% {6 bwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.! k. D0 D6 U/ p# ~ q8 h4 f9 Y1 W
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high/ f" _6 r6 o( g- B0 N! B( a6 `
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.. P8 b. s: W, q. w" z
k3 I+ }) @" B# ~3 U
Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one. y+ o6 |7 x! F9 b5 Y
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a; ?- v$ b/ d6 a
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,+ w0 O l0 X) r8 u( _( M s
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
* @' z+ o9 \3 ~$ nFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale' p/ b. ]9 ?$ Q( L
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
: T0 l3 V9 m7 K5 J: sCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays( Q# K* Z' d8 A6 H9 E# S
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver
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l+ ^6 y" s8 G% k! o Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
4 U/ k/ }# B3 Vbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous9 N9 m! H& M: t. W+ Z
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the9 Z/ _8 z, `0 h! e7 T
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
2 {# k- S& u) u3 W& I, Ggrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy l; d+ O# I+ e" S z; t
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%; S" q4 v3 R. Y$ x
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
. [2 w f) V/ u1 u5 d% xfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very: @5 X9 ?8 S3 G8 }
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.& U& P: j% z6 n: D; {. ?1 P4 q& h
8 z$ b7 s! S9 g. B, Q. `+ b) _
Toronto
5 C. Y1 g; Q2 I* g+ p( v
& k% I3 R2 `) c T Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and2 i4 w& v5 c* y8 _+ A
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is3 E. g& b5 G. _1 y/ J: r
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
( i' v# `( e# M6 ]) N' X# Xindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
+ K) }) ^ X( f5 K4 w3 t& j! _7 w6 kThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
0 x, `0 G# l8 ` jfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and. W4 e% l" B+ O% @ K
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal0 R& C# a" w8 }$ N
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall( \ `* g8 I0 N" d
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
: {9 A0 h: G& s! [ Wshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in5 w/ h: V: T8 s. r# s7 Y# h
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
9 E8 ?( u% d* H# I/ Wsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
# f$ `$ w4 T* N. m# Ehigher as a "hold" recommendation.
0 ?2 \5 E& H7 L4 ?1 `% ?6 ?; K2 c1 P9 s
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years7 R$ M/ @8 i. _3 j
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy* x. u7 U7 @& _$ W, Q
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
9 w( V$ g* v2 l! b) g* e8 K, Snear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest2 A% B7 j4 }/ @5 R5 ]0 X
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
! F7 t$ P& ]# s! |prices."
8 ? |( K! c! }: m3 Z: O3 }, z3 n A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at2 M* I3 z% z' g4 g; w" k
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.' c- M% e6 j/ d; k& }, k
- s j" f9 p! g0 N }( e About PricewaterhouseCoopers# |) j8 ^& @" a, I) m: _
6 z+ e' C" d N1 z PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
4 k: b: v5 i, s3 [tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its* P# Z9 I4 l6 Z8 ?2 f
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
_. v" Y4 `0 P# C* G" ]across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop2 |' [4 l1 l/ x5 `' |* B
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of' C- i/ C7 U. D0 x) p! U3 Y; N
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
# Z( a" v1 p8 B) Z1 A" O" qrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
* Q' b9 a* g- s. `2 J6 D/ d; lcountry.
0 \) b4 q: t6 R1 l l. L7 d "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario7 l+ k* f. ?, }& g0 h- G( L
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the# u) P. d( q" T
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,4 P6 u- `, L6 ]0 u k, A
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.4 o. I$ p5 z" D. q
* m1 x/ H8 c) k M+ f, O
About the Urban Land Institute$ ^, o$ G5 {6 \: b3 f0 f
4 B; j6 c+ X/ _& w
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and$ {2 G* h/ w$ U; d, ?# S, t
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide( G$ p R# Y+ U2 `8 j, [
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
; ^( Q$ p* N/ y3 w( v$ B) \+ O2 t( q& wthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more, x9 S" [2 C$ n$ U# ]+ Q) w, m
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development5 M& E, e& g! H: K- J
disciplines.5 ^) y- G# N F. p ?% ]0 }
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.' z1 N( [# a# n( f1 u% v
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District% H" O3 q. Q8 s* e, F5 n
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is- U B8 K5 \9 e! p' B1 s/ i- o
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
0 V# n$ Y/ g) B5 A) I3 [hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
$ v0 S. e) V- |! B1 P$ d4 m2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake7 t0 _- d g% q3 v/ w3 E
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,' L. D }- e& s4 e
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please& ?. G R+ c9 \6 g; d- Z
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on/ ~3 Z2 ^8 t1 T! C, o) ^
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.* C! g& I4 C9 ]9 M
2 r, ~/ q5 H. V$ W. d+ Y
1 c5 Y, O; q/ C" N5 M- l% _) L
2 c: g1 j9 x9 g% BFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,( O8 w$ l9 p& K8 V# T; c
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com5 u) _2 N) X5 D# b: y( `: B
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html- n+ V! b/ H& ~+ R; |6 A! r
* Y2 C A4 U, H[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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