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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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9 u \0 N' }2 J2 d/ Z( K) V7 zDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
, b- l0 l$ Z% k. a9 {( x$ C1 l TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
- _2 k! u; u6 l0 s! Lcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern, _1 a8 _$ B# H; s( I% g$ P5 \
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
# l1 A1 k8 q5 _2 m* \Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)% a" F' B8 e- }7 A( L- i5 a8 f
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more6 C' V$ P: T" ~; `9 u
upbeat.
6 h+ M. J6 N* ]) L: d; h/ P Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
* v- F1 _# G7 _; Lannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects9 V+ i0 i) }. @. [! t, M. X
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
4 O6 R$ G* N6 V, V. v2 vestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
! W# \. {6 n# P+ yrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
* j5 A' ?) r7 B3 p# iOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
' z5 O% |; t% S3 `# p# dincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
! v5 H! v/ W+ d$ [& X According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
8 x& _% q ~( b& k& @Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
3 E3 w: H0 j- g) r! ?environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
$ s4 m7 e# J2 e3 u7 H5 z/ dbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record7 |2 h ^& t7 _- {
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."( t1 u* L- C g
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the j2 g4 c! V9 m/ j7 y
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
& M1 P% B# h" o) _$ p' A G7 `speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
4 k; L) P( [3 @7 A2 X' q0 Hremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US: y5 @# n' }2 o: C
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
0 _$ {8 y1 n: {very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
2 x- X; d. d: G The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
7 q7 y& R. i6 G' G: q1 x- C9 @respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
2 T3 j3 F) p) g D* rcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
" O0 I4 z& f3 f% q, Q7 W) f4 @2 |0 Edevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country: D" i- Y1 n$ z1 U& S
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
0 `" H, q2 N9 xdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The; @1 m5 A1 V! \1 u1 Q8 n; b! }
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
$ V$ k {/ s7 r* Itake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
( P0 F' K6 i# T* G( c6 q; S9 wsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
5 P7 p2 K2 z2 c. c8 G9 n) @! r Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
' X7 Q+ }$ G- v8 L+ ?8 utenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian/ e3 u; Q+ U; h6 O' ]4 x8 Q, E
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
x+ x; R" v. n' P1 Jhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
% M" I) G/ h+ S0 K# unew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
3 g; t/ Q. J! J I) t5 q$ V' yand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
; ]) A' d. @' D9 C- napartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
7 U) B! y& b" u+ Q7 O' gwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing1 H/ G. e+ k) M9 w2 v
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
$ z1 {; w1 u4 {9 K& ithe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development5 c- m0 A; d$ G( q) }2 D, q
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.: G' ~8 c ]. G9 K3 Y1 O( Z
1 y: \3 n3 [( v1 A. V6 i, q Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
5 O2 o8 u3 }5 g. X, D: c8 Jcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour" @1 ?+ |$ V% t8 L
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back3 W$ T* f0 f, ]8 w. d
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in5 H7 }6 R3 m0 u, | ^/ R, M% g
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical' z1 A/ o4 H: ?' q; L
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
9 h: y6 y# G4 N# a# }west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
' Y" n6 p$ v% i( Mprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain% ~6 Z/ ?( O" o* F2 m
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.3 r9 M+ k) W* p( \+ j7 G9 d
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
E% n, G& C+ L0 vratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.+ n) T' ^8 r8 k0 _) m1 k# g; a c
5 t3 o4 R4 U1 N4 _. _
Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one% I9 z Y K+ o( ]
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a) d4 }+ y3 p( o0 C
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,( ^% K6 U4 E+ w" S2 H% W
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.: W2 O& `8 I& Y
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
, t" V# Q R; x. @' fHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
: d7 ^% n" Y+ d2 w5 [Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays) q1 Q2 }- F' B. t5 E. V
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver/ u8 _/ a# [8 R$ D# r/ t& l
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
* N7 @ h7 ?( d2 y" _booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous: ~! U: R9 ], `+ E$ L( W/ N- Z
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the3 ~% d' n( ^& S
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a$ T% x; u$ r& X: f* |1 o
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
! X" |' Y; f* Q+ Trecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%( R: E: k& Z. \4 x! P* j2 w
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%/ b- l# o8 S% L9 s! ^
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
9 B o+ S9 `9 \9 Z& P$ cgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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l$ i; C6 h7 c1 W8 _2 x Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
* K- `" z2 A, ~% bmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
0 f0 c) Y% s$ }2 W! Qrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
# {& a/ ] L9 t7 A! mindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.0 D' Z- M9 W$ R8 W3 r
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
; k, t; s8 e5 u: ?6 g5 Wfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
# Y, |- L2 |3 d9 M- Y8 N9 rApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys./ Q7 s# C2 n7 S' f* M
1 y0 v" A/ @' K% d3 E Montreal
8 }, {9 x! q0 s( N3 V8 t" a7 y+ j3 X- ~
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall- \" _6 }% s9 Y3 q# \
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up+ \/ R+ p/ \3 p
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in2 g- o+ N- U/ `; X, S
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate/ m6 v' }6 `! M, L0 _& Z
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
) v: Q) }) Y- m* n5 f, Qhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years8 G2 G% }8 e) d
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
1 V7 Z- h: Q! P, Q1 v) xmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
, V. p# c2 a7 x- l$ j. jnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest4 h: H4 u0 [& e
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
( h: n& J7 R+ n7 X4 b. ~# Iprices."
5 Z, K6 b7 @+ v A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
4 o) R2 H L7 T; b$ Iwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,$ W! o2 b! L9 V) h$ @8 `$ G
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its, P3 G: ]1 ?+ M ?8 V7 g
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
$ R+ [: w& j6 F' [across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop% t j# \1 u! f# P
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
9 O; v5 ` Q' v5 N, `excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
+ z: ^' P4 z8 ~related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
$ j" B9 b" i8 O: Wcountry.0 {& J0 I- [( t* V' P) Y
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario$ n3 q: Y1 f. d: @
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
' L7 S. v) D7 @7 oPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
! `* z4 O% ~& u2 z% ?% P; j/ ?0 veach of which is a separate and independent legal entity./ r5 X5 o: i" J4 d
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About the Urban Land Institute9 I! e$ f9 C. {2 t7 D
+ N" @3 _- {: n/ g) P The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and: F* p: @# k* h$ b9 X0 }
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide& a3 \2 W1 G3 w% V4 H( V3 @
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
. `- N, i$ a5 R* vthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
) p% \* i/ J4 a" j, c- {/ zthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development6 s1 Q/ D4 H- k+ ]9 }
disciplines., V" A' c$ B6 x- L* P
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
8 G- {. X$ d- ?" t: TWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
: F* ]% q2 V4 |1 @Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
4 U+ X* P7 O# u2 b- anow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
" N8 d- Z* w5 C6 B9 h# ~& f" \8 F9 L, }/ [hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,' n2 y- ~9 H. P& J& p
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
" Y7 r2 |. ]4 v+ ^( q% dHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,- e1 x* g% H( S, K8 x3 @7 n4 M
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
3 ^ o5 S0 J& Z) E% @' y; ycall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
1 o& c7 u! Z5 Hthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.. n( i# [& G2 ?' I' s
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
+ V$ U p: R1 _; v(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com9 |- d1 c" J0 Q7 X/ Y9 l2 x
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html! Z; R1 _9 A+ o1 W
; m, Y* B8 C- s' h$ l, M" m( b[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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