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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 8 Z6 @ L% \' }2 P, ^* |+ y
) F9 ^# w; Z* R$ ]
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
3 Y- i, S; G& L% C# x TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US( [- \* G; b3 Z* ]: p8 L ?3 ]
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
( w2 A: l) @( C6 `3 `as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging% L% W6 Z6 \ a! c4 V
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
# r( c) g- ^4 }4 W4 x; r* D. Iand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more. J) F3 @$ d4 [( \5 H. n1 u6 ]
upbeat.
0 I. F+ B3 a( j8 W* w Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
0 b! x4 T, u$ J: Qannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
r9 y( z( G6 A6 y! E4 e1 rinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
1 Y# n7 E" H: \* @3 }: V! Testate experts, including investors, developers, property company
# k. g L4 @4 |0 P7 b Prepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.1 g: T* k) I0 Z. D! O7 E+ b1 l
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
8 e/ x2 ?6 ~% x1 T$ U- gincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
! h. \: H: r3 X5 c+ @( k' @/ ] According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian$ A* j( s, ]2 w. O, V
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment2 B* ~) k; E% k- N) ?
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
5 m9 t* B) Z- a: Abe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record& F7 i4 a: K; Q& J: C2 g* J5 ~
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
6 q3 \4 Y% V$ ^& J According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the0 v* r) |% r3 C& Y
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game% s) _. K3 G# T) f
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
" o7 j. A! Q5 w& d- W* g/ mremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US! _8 o e" i8 e: U+ e% A9 X: w
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
* {4 `1 e$ I0 N9 r& |/ hvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.- l& X7 C8 i6 G5 [
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian# o8 L: b$ B1 i: C9 |" E5 _: m
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
3 n; g+ O) v+ P' a' @. G; Vcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
/ m0 i h2 u2 Jdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
5 P* `& l; u8 ~+ z- {" vespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating8 V( g. F! \0 p4 d- W' {# `' T: R) g
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
/ b( c3 I$ d1 z5 Tresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to* ?8 U0 z: y* p6 |# Q+ `3 m3 Z+ K
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
! _ |, n4 e; V' I) [single-family housing looks overpriced.. j6 s9 @! H& P
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with* j! p2 x1 R: x7 S! r: A' C$ b$ C
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian/ S& ]/ |% [2 M3 o0 \
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
2 R. }8 \& k! b- Hhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
9 g0 |& O7 l; G/ Tnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,/ X% K0 O! v; ^0 \# i& Q+ W' K
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
2 Y1 n9 K3 I) o v4 X2 Y1 J, gapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
- X) V9 `6 A3 s* g: Iwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing |& F- d" j7 _4 I7 M2 r( X, V
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
! d# k4 @ q8 ]6 Q7 h0 mthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development y* @' Z( t6 S- n i1 ~$ n) }' H
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity./ P9 j e' L/ c0 {
- k2 e& W: V! U v* g) g7 K Canadian Markets to Watch! Y* J' ~0 R% Z) o- M0 [
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
8 D2 J4 m8 E% xcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour1 l [; a# W1 q# Q
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
$ t. X2 C2 Q) `) Sinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
& y% [( g& o |# C& Zdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
3 D- O" W3 L1 m9 t) ?, x, Y4 C, Hprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
u) q' ^/ v3 [0 E. o. v$ q, v$ |( Qwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
4 h+ D5 e7 L1 e2 Y# u" cprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain4 |3 k" S% S- y) k3 T Z
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
6 t* _. c* S' w8 CToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high8 i% S8 Z& I* r U
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
& i$ s. | ?+ l1 G5 g. y/ _% l: Y3 D1 A4 B$ z/ v
Calgary/Edmonton
, V8 U, b$ Z8 e/ O! l- W4 b- E1 {6 `) y- Z( n
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
" e* M, b7 k5 i( c7 \; Aboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
/ l4 P1 I4 Z6 A1 e0 S; ]buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,1 H: [9 ?9 S% C5 Q" j$ O& w
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.& W; W8 k/ K( Z5 F7 `) y
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
( \7 D1 J, S/ N# S$ Q7 rHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the, k7 C( |7 p0 ^ w: T% |8 M+ f
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays/ i- I3 ?: @& t" e
strong, this market will continue to do well.
, f) ?! O9 f% I: s# Q+ o6 G y: E) [, \2 x! b
Vancouver( M' i( q% ^4 `6 F1 F* R
2 v( _8 _8 e& q9 m* b
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is4 o) g% Y, V7 i# N ~2 M8 a+ A7 a
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous4 z6 [' l0 n5 G- }
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
. Q& U2 Q7 D# i& i6 \0 i' Omarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
" @$ _8 [; Y+ |( W; U2 ggrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
1 h. j1 E6 p* _: B+ p0 t" @( G/ Urecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%- z' ^) ?) G; Y- y5 z) \2 F
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
8 N, [4 o5 N+ q) j4 Efor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very6 \" B4 ?) \' R t3 z( ~$ u
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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6 }. v: N' W; a R' _ Toronto7 G6 n7 x. z$ E( ?$ G4 I% r
, \* S% Q+ M+ \ Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
% \" \. d0 I3 E* L% c. S' qmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is ?: w( @/ a$ p1 i1 g0 {% \
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
7 z8 I8 v+ t9 S% jindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.3 t+ E$ j2 k1 m; Y: a$ ^
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square6 i% g6 ~3 D' k
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and$ `( m O$ o* L5 v' M
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.! n9 N$ t+ m4 K2 ` b, K
, n8 r* ^7 c1 W- Z Montreal
. ]3 B2 F/ [4 T# G* H; b
: S9 h1 d8 u( u/ X* ~) ~! z Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall# Y7 e! n. } L; s u
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up: R. x$ a, }: N8 M
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
, V; Q* H8 R1 \8 E% V# ICanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
, N d Z: z; W$ H6 g5 \0 Xsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors3 g4 z) E+ n0 I6 Z9 Y3 H, w' V
higher as a "hold" recommendation.4 o/ p2 B0 E: U8 b% y$ p
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
7 Q5 N7 c1 d/ w) G; C% Q: hinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
# F- n8 J: v Z6 B+ W: x$ x7 }markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
& J7 L( |8 @& v/ G5 e) p* N7 K5 k# ~near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest$ X" c( }0 t' Q) c( g; k. b
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current" W4 g- ~: m H2 b k: f$ H
prices."* V: {; T& \; N5 l. C4 Y
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at6 N8 h& _7 e6 N
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.. X' o+ l& l8 ^9 R" x* e, q$ C
* r( P" G5 J0 n7 `& K* g. J6 | About PricewaterhouseCoopers3 ?! j9 D s2 i) ]- U
8 @4 `- Q8 e' w
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
) w% A& A- h8 O/ v2 s! E* }tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
0 J! [, I2 f: Z. B$ M y. O( T" Xclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
( z# V# _& j. E& Iacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
, J9 j# J) M K9 @% d. z2 Rfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of9 x5 m% x& G% h, H
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
1 a: B, A6 A+ _& h; ~+ D. _$ drelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the* d% n0 w3 g, l7 A- ]# t- C" o
country.
) ?) b$ a2 p& [& q "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario! e( @1 b- Y$ _4 z8 t
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the: F5 O R1 k: d# c9 \
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,# ?6 k! f$ A* F2 x, x0 m
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.0 G4 W4 l6 F# k; L) z* T, F
0 C; ~: X# Q5 L d About the Urban Land Institute9 ^/ ~0 [3 G9 ~+ K- M" s
$ ^" y' U" u. n The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
4 p/ ~9 \2 [: j2 Tresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide+ q {7 V+ M6 Z3 k7 `5 e( o
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
5 C, f- Z; m2 M0 Sthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more8 J: D. e3 l+ K. ?& y1 d
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
1 H2 Y2 D" ~" V/ o- Sdisciplines.
. A7 q3 ^! x8 H The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
* G% c# h: ]) v5 E5 ]* Z1 C# Z4 ?' mWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
$ h( ^0 F1 J. A) m6 bCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is$ _7 D/ B. T0 S
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be) {& f. x Y y& M
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
! y5 x8 v8 ? c' {' _4 x$ g" H/ Q2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake9 ~% Y l2 c! S( k+ l
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras, S9 b+ W0 l y' [
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please' l# x* D4 W7 u
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
! b# a) V' j( {# J/ Othe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
6 y5 g7 A9 c1 T- A7 a6 E# U: E1 V9 Y6 y5 ]8 T. d6 ]: Y5 q) |
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2 r1 I! ]$ a- @, J( _ _4 F! \+ ^, h" E
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
# g$ G* o# o3 I# A(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
1 g' M9 L9 T* ^" [) {' Bhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html( o# A6 e4 H2 Y N$ N: n
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