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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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; b1 Y* `" E) B5 S! |Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ) w3 c# p% n3 p+ w; G
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US8 v1 [( N- Z5 C! \
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern4 N1 I# L' X1 }9 p
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging4 c |# ]: a# ]* L& U1 b$ \
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
$ s8 y" }+ I# s3 w2 Sand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more$ b' v$ _' m$ D9 X6 D
upbeat.
2 T& N9 `% V9 g4 O1 G Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
1 ]' H# _2 D7 Z3 W- Zannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects: Y5 E9 w, A5 N3 }
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
& Y7 ~6 x9 s) e) j" _( l' zestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
' [$ h6 X: I5 Q& H& grepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
2 ], N$ ]# y) k6 _5 vOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world# ~' ~$ k0 n4 \' n$ m8 N
including Asia Pacific and Europe.# F# Q7 n4 Q" a. e4 w. v! g8 g
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian9 `. D: k P4 T
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment: h: O! ]- g/ e& J9 O+ w
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to7 l$ S- V& j, X, O- E' }
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
) W) B2 v3 I: _: khighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
# y* k) G0 Y. i' e, c) k According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
v" ~( Z, ~! T+ p. _0 J) W7 [border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
) \9 h6 j4 y! Vspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
X$ n7 h( M" T) F" H0 Q7 L1 x! Kremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
) n8 q" N7 L5 K( N6 m+ vcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
0 {5 o) B" Z/ x: b' qvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.1 J& p& K8 o. @% p( N! \9 S4 x
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
% c5 v# t h& prespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by4 ]% _4 @$ C, y
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
! K+ [( B8 g+ rdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country. M9 i& V) a2 c% ~4 @
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating7 h' N$ K% ~+ l* t; ~8 l
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The9 l0 e$ ?3 N) J8 \! K
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
2 A- [# H2 C9 v& D4 L" u }8 i* L" O$ ntake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
7 j( A+ L3 B: B. k; D5 L& g& s( o0 Hsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
* w' w, W6 I7 ?) _7 T Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with: u7 f. H b/ Z) C# ~! V6 D7 T
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian2 W6 _. F+ g% x* N# c9 P! Z$ G: K
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push8 \- r. l$ A3 T9 ^. ~1 B5 z$ R6 [; o
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting/ m6 u. z4 m( N- W' F
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
* O2 v, o& k0 v8 i6 Oand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental. V% ^' `- h% [6 h3 _3 [
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary, a( C. x. T9 L/ t- L
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing7 e- x) |2 p- E ?2 [( T2 H: J
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into8 O, ?9 |" Q c7 H: W: _% q# I& {
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development6 W {, m1 [% f3 t* f' b
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.6 s$ L+ C/ p, U; Z8 V3 X
5 `3 D1 D2 q, ^$ K' R Canadian Markets to Watch
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9 |* G, P+ P9 b7 m* ~4 Z4 R The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central& R0 a8 o1 g8 A( Z; r& w* k
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour7 \; S* ]- l$ B
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
+ i9 n& K& f0 [. b9 |' {2 Vinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
) d7 G7 W$ X B* ~' Rdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
* s: f4 k2 n! t" l$ _# Iprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
% B! h3 ~2 T2 `/ s6 i' Xwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment4 M" I# C9 ^) Y8 G5 D1 b
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain- U9 X, @/ i! _2 S' n `* p
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.) G" [" S, u0 d# y& F
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
' S1 I& w/ U# N5 _! U5 W% Jratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.) F# B( z0 b( l
% a( e5 P, x2 k' H5 R: A7 j Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
& d6 P- n5 v$ o/ r) Wboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
; U' Z% Y- E/ p9 ebuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
1 t8 j0 E. Z4 L: R48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.1 }; L7 B- `7 X( c9 Q% x0 o% u
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
- o! q l6 I0 WHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
8 B& f, G) ?5 T+ Y! b3 H% C, G/ bCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
4 N' f, R5 W0 z, f! A! ?4 `- Rstrong, this market will continue to do well.1 }8 l6 q( s% u. V
$ _/ s$ ` @! F$ L7 f5 T x& R5 \0 a Vancouver4 W+ F$ {5 Q O% }9 ~
% \: _+ |# d/ t3 p# e* v& X
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is7 E* z% {( [7 g! @7 J! G
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
1 k- k9 @8 |. qreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
+ ^ U# z% ^% q+ F" nmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a. t6 N; G. l& L" P, e9 d3 l
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
# z) e' A4 G! erecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
x( O4 G: P0 P# a, lfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%' V) H- I( }$ Z' a0 S
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
; w% U- c$ k, Z: k" \+ u$ g& ]good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.3 k2 F& ~, b" N8 T$ V
0 @, f5 o) V. } Toronto9 e, R2 A+ k9 S+ M8 ^! E# a* Y
, i! ` G5 z* N) {+ C0 O$ u6 W. i Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and1 J4 l, Z" u* w4 T
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is% k( f1 T" ~3 x. c
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
" {: ?3 k8 z" u) @% f- Cindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
( a& t- Q: F3 vThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square V& k* [" g, A1 l4 W1 ^+ [
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
. u$ f+ E) ?1 bApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.0 c8 [" X8 B" _& l- L
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Montreal. G8 W1 ~) x( O: t5 c& w
6 X. E) c1 i" g- ` Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall0 {' D) R( {% c7 C7 q' N
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
% C8 P% F7 ~ j6 tshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
: Z9 a+ p# z" i ]6 _3 i6 QCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate5 \+ B: j2 A& M) H
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors) }; q' @1 }/ W2 [+ f) m: {6 P
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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' z: [6 Z+ d) ~. y5 L: O: i The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years' m- L2 U1 g7 c& c. M
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
7 A0 k* n, C. s0 D8 o0 Dmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos5 o9 S% V/ g% X! A
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
4 V! b" R; b1 L$ H: P: Y; F2 \, g! \overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current, W; Y5 }6 @; M/ ? U
prices."
8 w$ V0 Y7 P$ h: ?8 f: m& |$ p- z+ q A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at5 ^: ]% w$ G7 [/ S
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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+ d9 v9 m1 r9 Q; r* B) C, t About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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) ^2 z% v. e0 ^: u5 l/ O& q5 W: X PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
v2 M) Y( ?1 _tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its' l$ x7 \5 t' M& e7 [9 L% z
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries/ [2 ~1 O& Z9 ~: F# v$ H5 s
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop, w/ ~5 x6 Q/ V; s1 ^* x+ B
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
" ?8 w' W6 M- ?* }' v+ M* U/ J2 Oexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its: q0 l: @2 b/ @6 P/ D
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
/ r, ?$ _- e z9 x2 F- ^country.
4 Q3 k4 A- h7 D5 {" i; F8 a2 ] "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario' u# m, b" \ u- ?. w
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the8 k2 p: W# o! y
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,4 S( \6 U) Z+ O0 c
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute
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. e. }; L% D3 M- _1 j# n3 }" W8 T The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
g9 k8 N2 I J7 I( ?# p6 Yresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
+ L, c5 O" e1 x- e |" Eleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
: H% D% }) [) A) C# o& b! V0 J7 Gthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
4 M# }( M7 y. s7 Ethan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development& x9 `. w: D1 b
disciplines.
7 @; ^5 ?# }& V- X3 \' g9 p8 Z1 V The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada." ?8 \5 T4 q: C2 _3 E
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District! ?. g( ?# q7 S2 ]5 _& ^9 l! B
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is5 g/ W# p+ t! W" ^* R9 b
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be' @. N4 E' i% B: W
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
1 W4 P$ ]8 W% [7 V8 T4 i( J7 G2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
' F- C( s9 J' u O4 X5 SHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,8 P% a/ y! r; r9 Q. ^# N
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
( {9 r$ r2 d; @% Fcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
6 u9 A7 P/ w5 L% tthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.+ x% Y6 z( ?0 n3 Z6 T1 L
9 ?) }& v5 ?3 v% ^6 v5 _8 X" c& k- h/ _# p. t+ y
& c& m5 R# q R- @* \2 f8 r1 m% TFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,% {% S% ]; s" G. C* _( g
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com) C$ [) x7 w8 i# P# m
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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