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Attention Real Estate Reporters: % S! t5 L6 r) z( |8 ^, n
. F- I, O. H5 H! J' ?: t( LDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
# J: i+ d% O4 g7 P1 a TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
; n$ Y6 [* H) ~7 K7 g) ocommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern) ]; v4 X2 K( C5 P7 @3 S, Q1 ?
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging0 _( H! g) q# X% b; |( {. I& ?
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)+ @0 C+ ]3 G$ q0 p
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
' r, Q3 I9 T' ~% Zupbeat.4 c; A& A# l% C% Q \
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded/ x5 k4 A" Z) s0 c8 H4 t \
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
. m" u' d: C% V: J) t. winterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real9 G( b+ ]- t5 ^. F4 O: Z- u3 D
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company- ~5 ?9 l9 b. Y2 I* s o+ U2 h
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
( g# F3 R7 r4 Q0 v' o) [, M+ l( sOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world" }$ S( K. Q2 s
including Asia Pacific and Europe., W' }8 @- v1 E
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
' y+ C$ u F4 p L# m3 o i" ]. s9 i6 ^Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
1 f6 w0 J+ L* S9 ]0 I `# oenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
- q: F0 r7 e* t. l7 ~9 Abe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
\( z/ B) L0 e: g i lhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."# \" y u d% a. n
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
0 Y. w$ {5 z+ k+ c/ A/ iborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game' `( W8 C7 b, n* Z1 {- B1 x' Q) b
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
@8 K$ u& V5 ?* h" Jremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
) g- x& O: v/ \6 S# S. @correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be# w& }! e6 H3 Q$ a( c
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent. M& t5 A9 W* J- H
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian( s& E# K+ |" u6 q4 i
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
" g1 @4 F' }1 c6 A: rcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
! Y( `( ~" K( }4 f+ H( ~development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
1 V' E( Z# c! [: g3 ~8 Wespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating: g0 {- C0 H& B' W) h8 P
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The! R% e" q3 S+ w) q% j& K6 c1 S5 T% Z
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
" W u8 W' d) f) Etake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and0 N2 \. R2 b' [1 n* P9 i( f6 g
single-family housing looks overpriced.
) h/ V& R3 @* u& X& K: f/ G; h& S/ r Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
( z; F+ ?. B4 r' }. J" Dtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
8 I, l3 `$ C( s6 h/ Nmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push' ^6 u* G8 y' T* g! E
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting9 \& Z& V: O2 Q2 j# M, @
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
! T# F3 O$ P7 yand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
+ t2 z9 g& K A; e3 T5 Q0 Mapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary/ O1 Y& _: V5 e: s
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
U- P) a8 ^) H, c) Fshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into. r( z# o- P0 J5 K' N; y, I
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development* L6 ~% Q+ \% t# w/ z+ O( E+ I
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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' q- o2 P& q+ @$ X7 ^ Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central8 H0 B, d8 @6 ?" d8 `0 c: l0 @% Y
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
$ y& i: K' n: P, Vneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
F' @* M0 K6 f: z3 @4 u) M, A( Ointo the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
( M1 s0 d$ H: \% d9 ~. T; `downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
2 y" _7 x6 e2 S1 b9 eprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
Q7 {8 v4 F7 @8 o9 Awest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment: o& D- I# A0 {5 z7 N5 ?& K$ \
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
- R: f- m3 v4 P+ Z! M+ ~2 \whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
" \: S) Y9 c. v% ]- a+ QToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high) H: R$ O1 M! I P5 q3 b5 H" [! W9 N
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging. g, X2 R' P9 F4 ^1 D; U8 L( _) q
, }% ]. x4 }4 s, D6 r( |
Calgary/Edmonton
: @" h7 i0 a; X& K
, B$ `0 M) @. a# ^' }6 i Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
: b8 P/ b i% B- Xboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a, M" q9 u1 T* n! @5 N- Z
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
. C: l4 x2 |% c: [7 r0 u48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property." _, b' w2 y6 ?! z+ `% w$ i
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale, G2 e' D1 p% S5 c5 F6 @) U
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the! A; l5 s: X# r! L0 T
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays3 g% m4 W3 ~# H
strong, this market will continue to do well.
* B$ A' B/ d! _5 ^, X- i# ^ f: u3 h$ X
Vancouver
+ u# a2 @! M! y) ]1 {( e9 u& w# }2 S7 h, y7 M
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is( D! }& P2 B( Z7 N: Z
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous) Z9 j3 T$ d& m4 e
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the! q q0 `, A3 v' |' p
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a% }$ P. s- N% b' R. f5 k) \. D
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
' o8 W6 k, x2 F; b8 {6 precommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
8 h/ P! w0 f5 K+ Jfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%5 C5 l4 p1 {* \9 F3 a
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
! H5 s) W' D3 ggood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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3 O7 r# T* L- U! I8 y2 ~0 G Toronto3 F# k4 f3 I/ s, k9 b+ I
& K/ h6 V, C7 I2 }1 \- c& O
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
$ P' E% }% u) V( \9 Mmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
( A8 w) h. \% }# P8 irelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
9 z# l/ g- ~5 W' Kindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
]* E7 h; x, Y0 n2 b7 x UThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
+ [4 F' K0 S- G% ]6 ]* Ffeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and1 L* Y9 a$ U2 d6 L9 _
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.! l6 G7 L7 |( V: `) A3 E
: K0 L. Q3 R3 i* s1 q Montreal
5 u! o6 {% x; X* A" P
3 o, |6 i- B7 [8 Z Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall$ T6 d4 W2 d% @; S# A3 Q/ A3 d
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
1 A7 A- p2 R8 r: q V6 X) H2 ishop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
) w2 U( p1 l0 r( z) _Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
# V: s: o: g8 Y1 D3 bsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
; i! d# p- v7 yhigher as a "hold" recommendation.- G: V) v7 U: q+ F" N
) t8 ~( p/ e9 n ~, W$ z
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
' A, k4 x7 |" cinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
/ [- V- c1 w* u$ a8 T) y) nmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
4 f7 u5 ^0 b3 I p: t* z' Cnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest4 s( M g1 T# c8 T
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current9 G( `9 ` C% U2 ]2 Z
prices."' H" q- C5 U+ z4 c1 ~4 L" y! w
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at Y3 Y. J4 f* I$ J1 L4 [9 f
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
F8 T0 _5 ]1 V$ E3 I& t3 t3 [/ |) s7 ~# b1 g' s+ Q
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
/ ~8 x% O: U( `5 S
) R! e2 a- g# U8 p7 Q PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
5 ~$ P- ~) ^" B- Htax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its- z9 o, ~5 B! \4 c7 g( \- ~" \
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries* }" x) k: q/ G% Z& b- { J
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
: S* I. E: W& O1 Tfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of8 S' ?! L& r' U
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its. z* w( y( H3 u' q2 Y) v+ p
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
/ ?6 O4 N' `) x1 L: |4 b: Acountry.% F! |% C- v( o
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario( P4 f7 E5 v1 h* F2 x* {1 c
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
5 i* Y+ M6 [6 {6 A$ X/ K$ Y2 `PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network, }( F" o1 m( u$ o% j) s
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
. n& x* }- K9 y3 X+ A7 z0 ^
G3 B1 {& C4 _ About the Urban Land Institute6 m4 V) K" U! p& n
& q& g2 G, H+ _5 o' y8 F% F6 W The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
1 F2 C! G" v, @+ @% p* Mresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
& `( c1 b) S; f1 V' Y2 P; cleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating6 [6 ?( _) [: j9 x0 O8 d/ `& M4 b
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
7 w: s5 k# Q6 Z& W6 ethan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
9 w" {% ~7 m. L3 i, p$ pdisciplines.# h* @# {3 g' z: T
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
5 a, F6 W. ~8 e* v0 [With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District6 p$ e1 U6 G: M# q6 d# E$ G
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is: g! W. y. K' o: p/ H2 D
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
* C: F; t9 q6 t& c% @hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,9 N! H* G5 l$ t/ y
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
B. {- s/ }) l* \; h; C1 H6 b6 pHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
, Q/ x4 \+ y7 @; x, `, }; mPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
) q# c. A8 N. N$ ~call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
" h! v) Y) F3 a) K/ A* gthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.% e: L* f0 a; I$ I+ r
. j: C' L1 D4 _) {/ {. F( W9 I8 _ o% N: v5 H: |: A* }/ m
2 {( g1 e5 d) j- x$ m, jFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
4 ?0 g6 v( {4 R G# E: d+ `5 v(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com" h$ X3 |6 Z2 |9 j- C
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html% o9 f6 n& I7 b& K$ [; B* g
8 F3 F9 k4 y7 ][ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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