Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
; O* q3 I9 T+ o$ ~7 s6 d  yMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
' C/ S$ Y4 {: D7 fNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
1 A  j. X, D) V. i: {0 k
6 V# U! o0 l9 M2 ?$ _. V, eDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
* c- X+ A/ e% x1 v$ j/ e3 b
* G  g9 ]5 S4 t6 }6 o/ s+ n- QSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
% L$ t' G2 z3 h0 z- J& A, F
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
4 A6 }. z- C' M* |! d3 j* {
Jul 2007
) M' N1 {% ?9 c# Q NA
, G: L- n  Y: h; p0 P+ l, d 2328
* }3 Y  ]9 a5 {5 z, X1 c0 s& j 717
442,752
1 _8 T$ `5 S/ n3 p! r7 J 410,000
320
3 D' P2 r6 v' a4 Y9 V 28
% J5 {4 W3 W1 x: W/ D, _$ j 31%

Jun 2007
* H+ P3 {2 k1 n NA
6 |6 R, z4 @; O+ Q 2661
$ b- K8 k' \  ? 1011
442,817
409,000
; h( Q  k/ N0 u! v  q 328
+ Z' Z! C8 V( A" t- n: @ 22
38%

* K! \* a, X4 b+ f) ?May 2007
/ t) G. V. J9 `% @# w: B+ \ NA
2288
# _- u2 |" ^5 n, v/ t" v8 l' s 1261
451,216
& f' M- A! \1 y3 Y8 W- o 415,000
322
2 `; ^% P) a8 @ 19
. Y3 N: l1 g! R( k 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
$ c$ [) a( }  g8 [. f: d鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
/ w' \" k- U3 r. b鉴定完毕！

3 e4 O6 m3 H5 }( W" h# M$ @
3 C, P8 N$ k3 |用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
+ @* X' C1 C6 @: S  a8 f- q2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
: W, u% I( ?3 \+ P- K' l存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

/ I+ P1 i7 c5 `  t" e2 \8 C/ `呵呵，太不专业了吧。
1 J$ m$ Q& l1 J5 E% w
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

# W& M/ k: v0 p+ b* I就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

4 K* @1 n% ?7 ^+ m; T# q* d这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

; s1 x* |! @0 c2 H# P; F

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
! N* P6 G, g( C0 Z# z- FDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

) n2 c7 S* \% l3 y0 t' y

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
- i4 v4 Q) z9 X& W* F- dHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
' y! n5 S7 d; [/ ~$ u& ~' mThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
4 u6 z0 F! B9 C2 H4 q6 k3 K# GIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
$ W$ h: A3 Z8 a8 v, B; A& o( OIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

8 ^1 G. d7 O, i0 FI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
& W3 h4 [) {: ?( {3 C, mIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
% f- @) J: n7 [4 r) g' r' G
! g( ?( U: c, i( @' g0 n
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
, @5 e0 |" W  k' E1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
3 N# V" ?, W# T$ C+ C2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

/ m+ ^! m& O6 w) m8 @
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

) g6 d7 K' @) \( b8 W
% ~: z/ [4 a; D1 J: c$ X! w# y
% t' m8 T3 A5 ?2 @, `2 ~; M只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
  V* e1 B/ `+ Q看来，观察days inventory 更重要。