Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
5 a, z4 v  j+ q6 E. bIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
4 j, \: d2 R+ F+ b  Y/ MNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
% Z% \  X3 q1 d  L# h
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

$ Y2 ~# {" ?1 FOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
- W* D* N4 J& A3 g6 ]
; I2 R$ g- l0 t9 {# w8 pAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
! {9 B  t6 X' h! K- D* d
Jul 2007
3 t' f* q+ \" J& o7 R6 B, f NA
2328
717
' N6 V3 y: k9 y; D  [ 442,752
8 V! e; d0 _; l5 n; y 410,000
320
  Z5 w2 u9 g' p- \) m 28
& Y( T( M4 E0 _+ O0 v 31%

Jun 2007
# |0 f  ~+ p* n1 I& s- O. b9 d NA
$ X; m( a+ _( z 2661
  ~* |* W; n( Q 1011
442,817
409,000
' x& Q& Y1 ^8 _ 328
22
. `3 U3 v. ?' {% I$ J3 I 38%

May 2007
4 P+ l6 w. F: z% v% p- S NA
# j* ^+ Z' p: k( Q7 x 2288
1261
# g$ I* X  Y3 Z8 y6 P7 l 451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
: t8 Z$ R' b1 W) W) `% l! E这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
3 R& Q1 Z' P1 w7 V& v鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
  g$ C$ Z( y; S2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
3 V  _1 p0 {( Q2 E, K0 E鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
( {1 A( S% W: u6 F1 h' p
8 [: }' C0 J7 V  ]) L( H新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
! F" U; D3 s. o, N4 E2 F
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
8 B" Q2 t+ g, N2 LIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
" c$ b2 b* ^$ d/ J& a" T, iIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
* W+ f( s: u$ Z+ zHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
* |" Z3 Y3 g6 p' I" [. vEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
' S( L. a& u8 s7 B9 a% U( PIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
% }- n! g" Y3 |0 l4 X. C& T6 INote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
) U. A5 `: v/ ^0 [- A

2 I7 N: g* T8 \% s/ e$ X2 aI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

# B: ]$ j* v4 a2 y

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
( B7 L: O1 d2 q3 G! u" {1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
. O  z% ~3 x( v  x. b4 Z+ J6 v2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
6 \1 l+ @0 w2 Y3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

1 |! O( R2 q6 f8 N# L% M
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

6 |* a% R; }2 Q6 N, e9 X- R$ z' g' Y' A, m! i

; U4 d# A; _3 u只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。