Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
1 Z/ Z: D3 `' Q1 e( lIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
+ X$ ^; e" T% U$ X  V, bNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

! g; c  k. n9 t% p. y* \  U: MDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
$ W9 \1 o! Q9 H/ M
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

5 K6 [) \4 ]+ u( {% k8 UAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
  I! I7 m, m5 I0 G5 x' K NA
2328
& d' L2 c( f* H' L 717
# @  T2 C7 p4 F9 }$ ]) ]1 W' o0 z 442,752
410,000
0 j  v% }/ S8 G; r/ w 320
2 d& W8 q: K# m$ w+ l7 z 28
9 }* G8 ^3 n/ w' t0 u5 c: k/ ~ 31%
6 m# o* \1 h- S4 B" K6 d/ ?% n
1 _/ G- g+ l9 p) k) GJun 2007
) b7 h3 }; E& Q0 Z* [ NA
2 v; E7 i, A' v/ M6 E1 [8 i 2661
2 @/ L# b7 k7 s9 M/ W6 a 1011
442,817
6 s4 |+ `' h8 Y$ x6 S 409,000
328
8 H. Q+ ?+ n# ^6 S0 T0 x* q- T 22
2 Z8 a6 B, H. \$ R* J: _ 38%
" D3 I8 c7 B" O0 E
May 2007
NA
3 P- p: U4 ^) i# x5 v7 Y4 T 2288
1261
8 r* w! S. W8 O# Z  d 451,216
415,000
1 O9 F; _! \# R" i% n5 z! ~ 322
, f0 l# y& W* m2 v! L9 O  O/ V6 V 19
7 j) R0 y: o/ S/ @ 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
& m& B1 U) T2 l鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
- ]8 m! [7 H0 S5 S- q鉴定完毕！

2 B) K& Q4 Y9 E' Y: w用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 o& k8 M& O, A# R4 d2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
( C( q" L/ F) L1 e" Z0 T( F3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
: J" }# a+ Y; K8 L2 x: A  L1 P鉴定完毕！

0 X% M& g8 t- n% R/ }0 j7 N* p1 j
9 c* [) t2 T9 ]: |9 K2 h1 U' O呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
* z0 z0 D, \6 l8 {4 ?- Y
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

/ i' V# ~% c3 e, D# H这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

0 G; C' m5 @* N0 N# Z0 J+ |; M& q
. s$ @! G, j! N$ i* i8 K2 o

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
/ u& c; u' p5 P: h! g) b" _Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

4 f3 u+ v; C8 k% D* d) v8 Q; R

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
0 V  i7 u+ `; UHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
, p  v- Y7 T( J3 p& Bgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
- D' Q4 r" _. x. H8 `& f! fIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

2 m( \9 H& R1 D0 Q2 w( q# Q  F) sI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
( o# w6 I3 X1 i% W. r+ r8 aMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
" N3 w: N; {# V+ ~3 CIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
( g/ Q& I0 c7 B0 B$ j* XNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
* d; J' z/ c! @4 L! n$ v
' q+ @: P  q6 |/ P; x
  w# o& o  }6 \5 vI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
- f+ C, o  S7 A3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

% A% ]8 {: I* f- B/ m8 d下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
, C, q3 O+ x/ E. q

- m' S) E- E& k" W8 C
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
- B  O' T$ ~1 ?2 I6 `看来，观察days inventory 更重要。