Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
) i3 z( w# F7 }* B% b: JIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
$ z3 F, H7 ]% T2 u6 H) S8 @Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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; D- o- b8 }6 @) p: d( J& i. [Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

' }/ r1 ~7 \9 Q" }' C- ]Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

6 U2 _$ |$ c3 qSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
/ I8 r. S2 _: N  ^0 P
$ H, n1 o3 ?6 q* d1 p7 h+ ^) K1 MAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

5 `- c3 S& ^3 d9 A; y. A1 Z' sJul 2007
/ B, u6 J1 y* `0 a- e0 C NA
2328
7 W& ?8 x1 x# U; k 717
442,752
410,000
320
28
31%

Jun 2007
NA
2661
* S: a  {( ]( s8 Q9 y  I 1011
442,817
409,000
328
22
0 h! N" c8 s% r6 s9 p% I% { 38%
+ |0 E' g/ w: U; y- k
May 2007
NA
4 L7 w3 x' V5 Z' F2 z 2288
) R+ @: V* s; {. ]5 O! f- ^0 |8 f. W 1261
3 m7 J* N$ ^& W: M/ t% b 451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
( h* w' M, M3 O1 o鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
  _# P  _: B. G  U- A* O9 k& W这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
+ S+ G: y. R$ U3 a' ~存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2 I3 z: l" c8 k1 B2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

; \  D! m$ j# p6 s' f呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

6 |2 c9 T, m( |0 x就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
; J. n* P( r% u3 N! ^  r& v; S4 n  U
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
  g1 z9 z, j7 NDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

$ n) B/ z" D: j4 Q6 ]

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
' Y7 k" g1 F; k6 ~5 D7 h( CIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
" M9 k+ ?" L( r4 N8 S) H; _# jThat is what i say half full or half empty.
' H8 o% f; L/ d+ ^. X8 Qgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
# W: B# i- i) \( o! {In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

8 q0 G2 y1 B* v4 k
1 M1 T7 Y7 L; q% Y! A% p7 SI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
- R* I0 F, B3 c& F  _3 k% mEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

" t) K5 n, Q8 h) z5 c- qQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

- ]* n# |9 E) [* P* y5 J
+ q" Z, Z3 u2 JI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
* N2 E: r9 I+ J0 v% X' {1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
- c5 s5 |% R3 ]" }3 t2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
* y2 v# t. H, w3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

/ b7 n8 R' X' v2 ]8 a
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
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只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。