Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
/ X. h, D) n$ k' H6 ]; a# z/ GIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
8 L: l! i8 z) NNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
* J% G4 x$ y2 S* M
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

$ d! ^  P: A. T6 NSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
( r8 y! T; |- H: ]- C9 M/ ^ NA
* e, U' D- V- d& ^  S% C5 f 2328
717
442,752
+ x) U) B. F2 u 410,000
. x5 A( d0 |& z  ~8 I7 B5 W7 ~- I 320
28
31%
& m  R+ o0 Q0 I$ x$ I3 t' n
Jun 2007
NA
$ V7 v! o2 O- t6 b. q0 L0 t 2661
1011
442,817
3 b& A1 Y1 p6 y 409,000
328
4 j9 a$ ?7 c; r5 b; r 22
! J, z  K$ O& r' F" Q 38%

- i, \% {- r6 qMay 2007
NA
! L5 s" D* \& K  ~ 2288
* L7 u& l/ P' X4 _2 B 1261
451,216
. I$ n3 n% [) h- i: P9 a2 O6 h, Y 415,000
% N+ b, l: ?9 E 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
. y" ]4 E0 h$ f- H存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
) e: t3 u2 u  f鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
. u5 R& E" f& [8 I3 ]- v# t3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

" U0 Q7 q7 C, L# [& _
% b) Q, g9 G; k) P( c呵呵，太不专业了吧。
+ g1 [! @- P3 L" v3 h2 E. n
- B8 f9 w$ F" I1 b. e0 f! {* e0 K' e新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
% c/ H' Y9 U+ V4 Z; N1 b
" x0 X3 s) v) e2 @3 z2 Y就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
& {: c  P" g, f7 L) [1 i9 J" l7 `
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
* x5 `5 l& M" y. L4 nIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
  p' Y0 [( D/ q$ S. E% TIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
) i* y9 W! a" |3 k. eHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

. J1 N1 e  S  a6 n, M8 _I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
) d5 R5 w9 C3 E5 [" W$ N  WIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

8 j7 G* \$ W, O2 o. pQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


* z& w1 {& @; q6 h  L, }I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
4 P% V! H, `4 N" [# t2 g1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
5 Q) W: ]4 L3 g4 m! O# _' n3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

- i/ P* f  D' L9 n$ \
+ c" o; W8 o4 g. `) }3 j下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


& [) U8 C$ ~& ?# m4 I' o. B
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。