Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
5 _& o! [0 @# W% d) x+ FIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
  y# f! x$ ?$ s! s& h# rNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
! Q  x# Y1 F$ C3 t
/ A7 k; u8 Y: |$ }Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
' g% T( A& `- U. p, G$ \7 ~- V, p9 z
, o* m. _! P& c& {0 ESep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
1 T5 A! |1 u. Y5 i# a: J4 v& d
Jul 2007
  ]- y) n3 F' o NA
2328
717
' Z: P8 l, L, R& x6 v3 p6 D5 t 442,752
410,000
* z% m) }) Q: \+ u 320
28
' }& _) |" H3 }7 o+ i  O9 b) {" X 31%

# r4 V8 {+ D9 B. MJun 2007
NA
2661
; s, Z3 z% R) X" e( r0 ? 1011
* G& `8 |$ U( j! e7 ` 442,817
409,000
328
22
# f# y1 A0 K  r" `' q 38%
1 O% I3 c, Z  l( \
May 2007
( {& u, A0 Q1 n NA
2288
) h* Z- n9 H/ s7 v 1261
  `! O4 L/ Y' v  P8 `, Z 451,216
415,000
322
19
1 e+ n2 f( m% z/ T* |+ \ 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
* O9 L! q7 d. q8 x+ u鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
9 B: Q5 b# ~; U. J& r" \鉴定完毕！

6 \( P9 f) H9 X0 C2 r
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
' b1 C9 W8 [, a8 q3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
5 M! h( M2 w. r( X3 e3 v+ ?" y+ ?" ^. _存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
2 @" w3 n; N# y4 R. |鉴定完毕！

- b9 N0 b! T( B2 @0 m' `  w9 Z呵呵，太不专业了吧。
3 a/ p5 ?, @, w# e
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
  b, N$ M' g' [) M: L
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

5 W8 c, t6 D6 c/ C6 |; `

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
. m" d& s; ?" e# Z0 l1 RIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
- u. a& Q0 f- Z: `: Mgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
! L/ s# r, I# j* {) S  \0 iHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

( a& Z" |  l2 e. Q4 b5 I+ m
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
$ n: |7 x  U% X+ g# }MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
4 k& \- k2 s: c/ xIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
2 \6 O* }5 r8 w9 aNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

. g: H) m3 B6 |# oQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
8 s7 K/ V- y9 ~  l$ E* y, M; z

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

2 P7 P3 \; G; t! d: Q7 E$ c

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
  `5 a& e. |& h6 i$ Z2 [7 l: B: B8 r1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
9 W0 @, z: u2 x$ T, ?: ^6 A3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


$ V- J* P% U0 {! H2 v+ B4 W0 m* L
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
! N6 c8 Z- Q8 H" A. i看来，观察days inventory 更重要。