No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.

In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
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"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."

# N+ Z) |9 y; j. A1 a6 bAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
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"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.

) g% ?. U  v0 c5 H! I"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."

Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

0 ^  j5 G8 P6 L& U3 A% D2 c* RTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
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3 z6 P" c7 ]# \) ^2 b/ o* F( T"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."

0 x% J" Q/ Z2 F% E& Q  l! V当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
) t: g" t# d* h; `- }" ]6 X8 f看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。
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4 A8 p" q$ G& J$ ]1 F$ Q[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]