No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.

  K) [/ Z. \5 ~1 C% W0 P0 @" @$ SIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.

# C# ^% w" `  @0 U"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."

0 S' B& \# ?7 ]As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.

"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.

; U: N) v4 |, i3 {/ {( W"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."

1 s( Z: u5 z5 DSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.

"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
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* f/ _+ O. V, ]5 u) N& b' \当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
; @5 L/ K6 \: X. h7 o看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。

1 y/ }+ m1 j' R9 O( _8 z[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]