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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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$ S K7 ~1 v; p2 r) |Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 1 f: H/ b. ]4 B2 }" W0 w6 [5 n
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US9 \$ o" i; C @0 d
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern# ]& f# B0 S: ^( A" }$ q
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
: D" o( N+ K: w- ETrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). Q4 f/ U* D# i" s) g
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more8 K1 e, y! J2 a; R4 V; d; t: _
upbeat.
5 p) B. i# h0 h! B# I8 O Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
+ i5 j% x, T% N7 B% ?annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
" q# L, U( f/ p) jinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
) x* E1 e) v$ g. mestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
* n* a' j5 M' N, `: ]/ _2 C6 Brepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
+ g7 i* o' P' r4 eOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
; {. H8 J3 F4 i: b2 k7 f, N! rincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
$ T! _8 n' {3 e According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
$ A4 d& }* M$ c7 k: n8 KReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
, ?9 S% l5 t% q5 Oenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to6 G& U8 I( c5 R# H8 ^
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record) k$ ~5 x( `+ S
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."( F( Y* y: U1 b$ ?
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
1 v, Q5 ^3 {! a0 ^' ]8 |border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
8 j! k3 A: s2 H9 h Bspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
D3 Y; n' m) i5 s$ x! yremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US o+ i1 i/ E; a- w
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be- y1 r6 u, J/ c3 D
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
* \% i2 Q. m- Q The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian/ p0 N! p& L8 R) O; U |
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
( w# b/ ]7 c$ P( b/ ], xcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land( c4 y8 m' V' Y9 W, h6 m- g
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country( }' @9 X& ^/ l/ f* n0 O2 t
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating# w! U; q' c$ \' A1 }
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The+ ]+ K' I1 Y- G1 |3 C1 _+ X
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
$ \) d w( N4 i3 [+ q' g, Htake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
% m! b# ~7 W: j. l( F. F. Esingle-family housing looks overpriced.
+ H7 x$ k+ {4 T( \ Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with- Y& y9 H5 H: D$ w) m' t4 }3 T
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian: G) Q6 }5 i4 L) u s
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push8 {7 @8 ^. l* e6 ^; }
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
: o" D! d2 V' B8 ]1 f& b/ c2 O5 @new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
. Z- ^) X/ [! M( Q) O, n8 l9 S, r+ iand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental2 k) K4 ?0 z9 B/ H6 A6 @2 K0 F" W/ O
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary3 o* K2 u4 q* [( n: f( W' r( Q
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing' c- X4 C J3 x$ ^. B
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
5 E& G9 K0 i7 Z$ p7 B9 Ethe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development$ I+ [0 v$ R6 ]7 w
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.3 i. ~+ o5 f: p9 R% ^. E+ _
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Canadian Markets to Watch* K0 J. o% _, Q, t. p7 @1 q
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central/ X/ q: D l7 D; H; K! z& |
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
2 A; [( p1 V5 S! Q6 w2 rneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back$ P! B7 W% ^' \
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
8 R) M6 P0 t1 T0 L: H Hdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
) i/ w# [: I$ O# a8 fprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out/ Y1 b0 p/ `8 Y$ C" h: [
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment: R9 ]( {5 m% g6 i$ P
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
) n- _" X$ v! `$ Y _; S! pwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.& h# ~/ f2 F+ C+ [4 K. _
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high3 Z! j* \+ F2 u3 L
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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4 T6 @# t, O. @- {+ }9 T# n) o' a0 } Calgary/Edmonton
3 ]7 B9 Z. ~$ v1 u+ Y- [3 {( V' {- ?$ Y$ F- ^
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one1 ?/ l3 Q7 H% ^9 r& C: |! d
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
; C) l( U- h i, Q/ S1 N( r: j' Qbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,6 {1 l4 I- d, v7 I% d6 U# Q
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.3 u4 u! Z: y, m3 ?$ S, ?( f
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
k- f& m! I" E3 ZHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
) y- ^8 M( |2 K! HCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
0 Y$ {' b1 }* }5 Wstrong, this market will continue to do well.
1 b1 U% L! C8 M& O$ c' a P$ @$ m9 }+ r- g7 X" M
Vancouver/ K) r+ ? t" G8 K2 O( A/ B
1 j1 S4 a; O, } Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is+ |* Q5 P) a: B4 B4 n
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
3 f. A5 S4 [/ n5 b `6 v0 T greal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
: I: R% M4 u- F; ^, }market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
# H- T* X1 Z6 k+ O. Pgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
( _3 w) B/ d! y! l Trecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
& b% _. d! ^ e/ p0 O3 ?- sfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
$ ~5 X$ m% H0 g: g; G7 }" dfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
( L$ v3 a, D! Z; I) sgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto) n) S& N7 R5 P7 {1 Q5 X! f) P
# e' a5 n1 V7 c" a! s, ? Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
/ _# H7 C% |- ~/ y1 s6 Y9 ?9 Y: Fmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is7 C0 g6 P: x- T1 ~
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing; _0 H/ t" K" u) b- ?: A" B# S! C+ h
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.. n2 ]( } S* G T$ x' N$ e1 \
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
- h/ \) K2 `! G7 M3 V; Xfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
; A) S2 q" i* c, [) {Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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" j1 E/ |" u1 j Montreal
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# r) Y# `3 s! ~: C9 c Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall. R* Y- q& I4 |; C4 w+ C- C" C5 G
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
( Q |! K) f6 q8 W6 k% qshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
) r; O. L; Q6 i: T" UCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
8 q3 I0 I( b$ U/ Q! s. @ |sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
# w5 P+ t2 f( O! phigher as a "hold" recommendation.8 @. l: Z7 q4 O2 s/ S8 [" g ^1 { x
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
% R8 J2 O2 D4 ginclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy. P. T' R: x8 X' u2 F$ n' s
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
6 Z- m8 n1 J% w6 v0 z4 gnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
P% n- q3 w& ^, j6 zoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current+ N' R) r3 Q& L3 Y4 F# {- ~8 O+ l3 K
prices."
, b* m' [: {# u0 Y( f8 ~ A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at4 s( n; D4 x" D3 Q: e2 C+ O/ j7 e( p
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.$ n8 F. C" p$ ~7 l) S
$ g( z! X+ w; v7 [8 y" a1 r About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
3 K- [" M9 _5 |: ntax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its, [8 e# M$ }' b" B
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries* n( a/ H3 i- i4 P" Z, R3 R
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
. [ e! }6 b b# f$ u" }8 m8 J; Z0 ^fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of% o8 V' G3 D# m; C/ }# y% c$ `
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
8 Z- a) h# e* Z2 q0 Y8 j5 o( B- b/ Zrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the& ]8 e% j3 E2 ]; }
country.
/ Q$ y% w# E6 b% { "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario3 o, C1 D# ?5 Z [
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
6 H: p# x. p, c$ a8 I) vPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
" {- y/ j; E4 H d& L3 `each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.) w; x7 H# T7 F
2 K9 r$ W6 B' [; @ About the Urban Land Institute" h" v) Z# ~$ a. I
% G" G4 k1 E' B The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
$ J6 e. M$ e' x8 T; u5 f" Iresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide) w1 {3 H1 Z2 [, j9 Q& \! N6 J
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating7 n+ Y/ {, I- E* J9 A
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
" J# _+ f3 G; Pthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
|" G) A3 A0 j5 fdisciplines.
$ O0 g) u9 e. c6 w) f The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
$ n" Y/ [$ i8 g4 j8 r! HWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
& z, P7 i6 F" z2 S: s5 ^Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
+ n4 ]+ ^( L' H" A4 J7 ~now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
4 K7 L1 K( ?/ }$ m7 k. A% l$ u. F9 Vhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,& U1 `7 M d0 v$ i7 i0 j* U4 U
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake- `. _2 j4 w4 u$ @
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,* C+ B2 L" a' V9 ~, U' ]
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please5 P* a% H3 r9 T( w, D D
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
% }# u6 }; @& Z' {the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066." s3 z: y4 \; [& E2 e5 L
# `4 b7 d! |, E! _
( w' i2 H2 g+ h1 _) X# F2 T
5 y( a6 s' a8 e. S7 v4 [For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,' E& Q: `4 |7 K; h+ i
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com3 v1 l/ ?7 ^! G2 c$ c. p" e
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html' x. N# l- U2 @; R+ o
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