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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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$ Q; C% O# L K+ @; a2 R! X& v0 QDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
7 k/ y: |- j7 m; u0 J3 f4 c TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
" A, u8 {# `( |, Ccommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern! o+ ]: R2 ?1 @+ ?) Y* v. z
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
' {, O6 v5 { z- S# r* N3 E7 C+ @2 bTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)# ^8 p% H8 X3 C; a" j- H
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more3 @, r6 q- }# |6 x# ^
upbeat.$ f! {: B5 R0 l6 r
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded2 y6 }* r1 S% N- U. n7 @% g0 z
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects& Y0 c4 L% E9 [9 J
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
8 m" w6 ~; K8 k7 Mestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
9 Y5 G" F6 E! x* A1 {* ~representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US./ o/ k# i) M( F6 a7 s
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world" D5 ?* a6 x* O/ i P0 \
including Asia Pacific and Europe.% R' `! c U$ ^2 d5 E
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian% D; g/ e# j3 ~+ j0 c
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
/ v b2 [- o1 Q2 Denvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to! u; \* O" r- o7 P! Z
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record3 X. c8 W& j# S& S I
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."% O7 R0 l+ \, r" `% }
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
Z* w. ?9 B+ ^& x4 P& nborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
) Q& A g. Z8 S: x% Hspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey: h- g" D) ~, T E- w8 p
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
, S s2 P, t/ j( d3 h5 E1 kcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be* ^/ w4 @+ e2 Y
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.% T8 c" q3 r8 {- |, K- |
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian+ }; @# ]( `4 ^' h
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by9 }( I: A9 f! O1 ^/ R6 B, V2 `
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land/ v- ]. J# W0 I; J; I* [0 |1 C
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country3 p: ^1 s4 E, y$ x
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating+ y. O9 t8 A) F8 A" ?7 \6 }
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
h6 a4 v: t: h$ U! C1 H. z% K, D' hresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to. g8 k7 `" I0 w$ f, v/ P' K' O
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and2 f7 i1 l' r: W* W6 }: {: ]7 q
single-family housing looks overpriced.
$ i" P2 g: Q. I( C/ v" u) C3 R' U Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with" H) i: T* \& l& s/ I [
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian3 r. f# w1 ^* |# s( X
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push' @+ t7 Y$ S: l6 E2 E9 w5 T3 c
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting0 D; S5 J0 [# v0 A4 k
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
/ p! }; `7 T0 xand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental( J5 G ~* `. O9 q4 b
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary! [# f+ ~, M) A
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing. W/ m8 c% k/ ^2 D; R# d
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into# S2 Q8 r1 p/ [
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development; h' K3 O4 l$ g
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.. A# y; D: N( s4 a2 B) u
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Canadian Markets to Watch k2 ~* J# b8 R5 X6 P* o" M
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central. _ y! p* B1 T7 ~ l9 K. I/ p
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
) ?- a" k* u2 \: }1 V& vneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
" M, F Y( i+ q% n% J; v* |( Vinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
' O+ y8 v$ d. X/ p: F: a- H( Zdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical! Q% i0 l) s1 I( i* E
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out q9 \* m! ~. S8 K% h9 M( z" R
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
. z: w! y% o/ ^( i- yprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain8 k9 `% @1 }5 [) u! V
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.+ {/ H: B; a+ C: u- `% F- g5 b
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high/ V0 i% d- I; U" Z
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.3 m% C+ t/ ]+ A! B
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Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
& L: ^" b( L+ y' w( z& {boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
7 {$ D: T. T+ [+ f& b( a, obuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,8 R' A$ \: E3 M5 X* G( d* Y& }
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
$ V" u1 P R! R0 w1 \4 lFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale& t& b U: }1 q( f W: c
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the7 O' F6 F' h+ u! e
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
! V. @) s/ Y0 B; K9 dstrong, this market will continue to do well.: t% b; h5 s$ u1 H5 b1 o
P! n$ N2 |$ q9 j; U
Vancouver
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( e& J/ Z0 @$ J% p# u5 v+ Z2 b Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is0 F3 R! h# |/ a% @% u' q' W6 r9 Y
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
6 f1 f p% n0 {6 h8 o$ J( V$ P+ Wreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
1 W. s4 f. x4 F8 ^) j8 ]market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
2 F7 @9 v/ w9 @0 p! a0 X9 Sgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
2 u) N8 w7 V4 e8 yrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
1 S5 ]1 x$ U6 R2 Mfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%+ k% G% @; E: J: T8 F+ c
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very5 }0 S: m1 p4 `* X4 J2 X5 U
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.( z/ ?/ ^' F5 F& Q8 {$ c
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Toronto. f! F! K. {+ V* O; @
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and, ~7 M& P: s1 j0 S% [0 u* \
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is$ u3 e1 C/ j( _, E# ~
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
- U) k* _( S I$ @: l. ^' jindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
3 E! r: ]* J# d8 ]; W9 SThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
& J' y- {( p) ]feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
}: Z% S& P6 CApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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7 y% w0 q% U! |, g: P7 f! R2 H Montreal
, m$ k0 e+ D4 S6 \, i! _9 I9 M7 D8 d1 G: w# S; [1 u
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall. m7 p% T$ G! M9 b7 G
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up/ h. D: n) U0 S% Q
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in; \! ?1 X% B% n$ q& k' Q" y
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate# C) G2 C. c2 e2 N! l4 n
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
6 Y) O! B2 h8 v8 `0 ]* shigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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% m0 a; e! z2 H The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
, G6 v9 n/ ~+ L) [+ u6 t! Winclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
7 N; `2 j% _" q* Rmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
$ {1 y8 u/ i$ gnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest; O7 C3 X; F+ D$ l5 A2 ]
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current: D( m) Q: a; {- D' e$ g: l# _
prices."
6 F) Q) s( @! k# u5 J# h A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
6 T6 I$ k o8 k, l3 y0 {6 d' swww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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: W% V! `2 E1 T% `6 C7 l About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,% m1 n- B$ ]4 R: h# i$ X, u- A
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
% E# e6 v; b; H& o) g7 W3 Iclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
. w3 _% I9 N. k( X5 z& f. Q! Jacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
$ } U& y& _/ ~( }fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
7 T" g7 A [3 d- Cexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
* r8 X! N, x/ F9 T) Zrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
; W0 [; y1 `8 k0 S$ @! Fcountry.* g* g( f" k b6 p- H8 g
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
& _* e9 F2 {5 J. R. r! zlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the/ X" g$ H9 I; W* I* }
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,. r2 V# t2 S0 ^& y3 K
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.* {% _3 U6 k& {+ _+ y3 D) `
% |" ^$ c+ z! D4 `9 N# R9 [+ @9 L About the Urban Land Institute5 d* A- n! |0 R j [* N
4 R& d# y7 ~8 h; R+ x7 j& z: r The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and) ^4 j3 S- a w* J% q/ u
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide7 Y1 R. J# R* B% [" X" U
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating" A0 n# Q& N: `) G h0 k* x5 d
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
( S4 ]; J4 \3 |6 _* i4 L- Lthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
: a u' f6 X# D- V8 o/ \disciplines.
. w; q6 H& c/ D7 C8 g. V7 R The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
% k" h* N7 A! ZWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
% V! ~0 ?& D1 i# MCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
2 b A1 F& h H/ Gnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
) y* X9 a9 Z' J- b3 O! @5 fhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
# e, }# _- k9 S. J, J S- v& u! F2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
6 O( z+ t# H, E) cHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
5 z3 v) M, h/ \6 b5 I0 bPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please \5 e( x# L+ W4 H
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
! Z7 D% d! V, ~& S3 f8 N+ Tthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.) z+ L! s x6 [# V" U5 ]' A; g
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
9 H2 q! F3 O0 @" E) `1 O+ A(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com" q% }# t4 a7 ]" A1 t+ _% S
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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