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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 3 p9 |4 r- r( i6 [4 c( |
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
1 i4 |* U3 _7 W G" Scommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern$ G* r1 _: W, q' N8 s
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
! L# E( ^2 H: V1 ]Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
2 u6 Z" l8 D- v( e- S" L1 Pand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
6 o+ X; X# V" z6 B) kupbeat., ]- S' @, g) ~: o" q; R, B
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
8 e- n: ?) Y. e/ qannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects+ s: {) r. o. F
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real/ ^8 A& I1 d8 ~$ F
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
( Z) p- V5 H" I7 L( [representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
# s6 r$ I; u1 IOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world9 P$ Q# q, e! v$ i
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
# B- H5 i7 |( r D7 S4 X According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian5 F9 `/ i9 r$ v- S, \# n
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment% x% n. W3 A) Z2 y" E2 H6 z
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
" ` k/ O: p) y4 ]be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record7 ]0 h( @9 h( h
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
+ G# {& @- H5 W: a- k: v- h7 } According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the& d/ D# Q% R U# i) _: N" J3 W
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game* Q) U; V# j$ B2 w
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey5 X/ l( Y0 \+ ~' w
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
$ ?. }( B; p! t/ {correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
9 J& K8 u' S9 O e# r0 R: ]+ [8 tvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.- x0 }# [$ f! N# l% R
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
; U0 L- {9 ^1 U+ Z! Irespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by* V M+ }4 P+ X# f' j K: o# {
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land, P0 v( V6 V p3 F* E2 p( D
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
, Y" Y# q, |( [/ J. Cespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
; Y. l i- _9 c( |% s9 k9 H" Gdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
, O: b: Z% i5 `residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to X; J6 }5 [- \- p6 N5 ^% n
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and" i9 P8 O4 h. W) B8 ?
single-family housing looks overpriced.
3 s; e- o0 k. g8 I! _ Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
, Z1 t" o" R5 r6 @8 t+ ltenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
; ]0 X+ T# g# b5 k- ?; Kmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
. {+ B: U( n# p3 {1 N/ Shigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting. F, J" t. O' q$ u
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,- K; ?! q! J* o
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental4 @1 \6 i, \$ ]- C/ \* e/ C$ t: ^
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
+ x, I- U. `- x7 [1 p/ Wwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
# Q9 a3 M: \! T0 i2 G" H& o. ushortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into* s/ v' `3 W# b, O( M6 p) u
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development5 Z% x5 @' ~/ S6 o( d. W
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity., f1 P' Q( ~0 m% K, ?" z f" v
/ i- X9 a) T: }) f Canadian Markets to Watch9 Q) y9 g: w) r. _9 x
' o ?& J* h* |; C( A* W3 ^. X
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central% g' }& N; {+ i) c
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour- ^: O0 ~/ s" h" V' j* C9 d& ]
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back/ j( h6 f4 q% H% c7 ~
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
$ C4 c9 Z, I. t9 Edowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
! d; {6 P3 j3 {! X: m% Aprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out- _, P8 @2 k& z4 o% D+ i
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment, \1 y: z6 X( A' ?) O7 m5 `
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain* z( ]- {! r: x$ z1 R
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
( a; Q B% \( j9 _. nToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high; b) w. r. \2 F2 Z
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
+ H% }" o& A/ F9 k0 v; r4 D
2 o6 k2 f% I/ | N1 h( s Calgary/Edmonton& G* O2 j1 K# [2 u" x# r( z
* H% e5 V ~* m: _ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one' [" [3 n* x+ m6 U; g
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
7 e4 N# l8 ?+ zbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
" p- S0 `. V2 {48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
) ]3 \8 G- ], }% V; tFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
: E' c9 Q) w9 N* l* rHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the& j5 n4 h" U1 s" {7 d/ ~/ U: i' t
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
% W* f) e5 [4 e! \- F* mstrong, this market will continue to do well.0 N/ P8 {, [( Y! E3 V: X% k* F
. F5 H! o) e6 w& m Vancouver2 {. N$ o3 s0 A: I
+ R. G9 f: K F9 Z6 S
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is% @% t# @9 i: K2 C. n
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous' s P* Y% m: x0 Y8 R. t% U/ |
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the5 S" I4 p' T# ^
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
; Y' G9 G Y4 [growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
], M1 [- d! @0 t# u, Orecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%/ R5 y& r) C- s. v/ A
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%9 q# Q9 q5 N$ u) @" s" S
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
; U) t! J+ P [5 d/ J; S6 _good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto; ~" D/ D) ~4 i5 \: o& X. l
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
- o- E$ _4 b V/ Rmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
# U4 A) b! w7 P2 P( E0 Arelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
2 Y' h" X6 Z# Nindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
. G7 `( M# Y. q+ {; B1 lThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
6 @2 F, p1 I( a# i n0 d: b, L; Vfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
) C7 C0 J/ @3 ]2 `9 O+ RApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
# X; v& D% Z3 A) z" k) o9 H% q' E. E# d; v& a
Montreal
; ^2 c# q% U" G3 g5 g2 j/ f" ]+ G- A/ Y. y4 s, j( m2 k7 l
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall/ T! l0 X) R# ]2 f: N, g
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up2 E( u% C' @) P/ Q( E0 ^
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
5 R& _2 x) Z9 Z% w( ICanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate# X4 a. h2 t5 Y n. M4 F
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
. ^% L7 S# r# G; \# Lhigher as a "hold" recommendation." G4 a, f. J: n0 E$ P; @( \
8 w" |( f" Z6 R The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
r. v7 i; V$ x' pinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy `; l. l* H- B2 X; ?( g+ [
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
+ U n. |- ~# K/ Nnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest& \; b+ H6 e0 Z; O! i' v
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current9 } ?9 V8 ~- U6 }1 b1 q
prices."
5 v1 W. @4 N! w, O; i7 r A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
$ z: I7 l8 |: D/ L/ x+ swww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
( ^ M+ D m) y& e# M* W( x! t
8 X$ g/ }8 y9 Q1 C About PricewaterhouseCoopers4 J: c- \0 R- n V
7 @3 d1 s" B' W2 k6 ?3 y PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,% v9 Y# L9 L, [1 _' e+ R
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
) v- `- Y7 I5 _% |) Eclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries4 }% r! A& ]8 }5 X
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
# [4 i$ K9 ^7 r6 B) P: i2 wfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
, P) ]/ Z2 Z8 ?, d. x) F: h& hexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its2 I3 m( V, d' p' J6 h0 H7 X& a* f2 g
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the, t. z( J' k X* l7 U7 C# j0 x" D
country.
2 ~$ e% T, q! r, k "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
# J8 L2 Q, }6 N' Z6 d2 d! `' Xlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the/ Q5 S# A; A, }4 J* \) Y* |8 B
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,7 ~) x" K$ @' S6 c' b1 R, y, w. w1 P
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
- ^9 I0 Z7 l9 C& A0 T/ \4 C' X8 p- u, ?2 v8 T' ?4 |7 F6 D2 @/ p
About the Urban Land Institute2 s* c" i& E/ v8 [) W
l" p3 Y) |# k' ^( |& ~ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
( J |# F' h0 V: F @0 ?research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide9 b; P9 x& u: p0 l! }0 n
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
% K. ~' ^/ x6 a3 |3 Y+ s6 y7 U1 }% J) Bthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more( T, o: r8 {# n. u& z9 f) O
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development+ M5 h/ ^/ P0 ~' u
disciplines.5 l P- T0 Y4 {2 r2 ]8 d* E( K
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.. k' h I% i: \( n7 z5 K' K4 R
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District# X+ a' S' R% z; C
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
2 {9 P9 t% K6 Know being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
% c% S% n5 ~, u) Uhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,, t! [$ B' c) H& ~ v, `
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
6 F! `. k5 @* f/ M4 wHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
) Y% j) q) g! k1 gPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
, R' J- r. d& g/ `call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on4 ]" I% ?. ^0 D: i& w! B A
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
; w1 A! S- i) y" A4 H" X( E j7 c- ]9 ]! w7 V2 z
+ o& l' O6 _2 m: j
- B9 T% X3 `) E) F% J; z% pFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,+ w0 X, s, W) j6 r8 D
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
& }7 k- J) P9 |- yhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html4 z$ w: g1 A$ s4 k) N
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