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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
, Q5 H3 m/ J6 z/ x) ]7 g* ^: O, a TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
6 R1 H9 @. n1 |2 C5 J! X) k, q2 {commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern( O. Q( E, ^. ^7 |6 l. U
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
2 o/ v( n4 X/ b+ STrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
8 ^- C$ J7 Y' f( Vand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more* T8 Z7 r4 \/ V
upbeat.
( K! S! c8 Q7 A9 {1 x Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded9 _ y" F J$ X4 w1 ^5 G. S! m4 O
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
$ G& S" b+ X8 R% k) binterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
9 J, G T' b+ J& ~, U+ vestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
& F' f0 \! z/ J- q! T: }representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.. G* p( d2 u* F9 V
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
0 i& I9 j& m/ t4 v9 d/ h: c2 Hincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.: N6 w, R2 z& M. m& g3 D) n
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
( a4 \9 l$ {" U% ?$ D) v" t8 V2 DReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
P# s/ m; w' [! B: f+ Senvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to! e8 w2 |+ a3 a% `
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record# s$ i) J* [. p0 \* }3 p
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
( Y& k; R [5 K) i9 I; w According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
! H! p7 B; m; Z. T& P3 z( f0 Uborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
P/ [) R5 c+ X5 E# w) Q; s0 Nspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
: a' I- i; }* B* eremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US3 ^% v0 _9 p1 `8 Z* N3 }3 M
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be) Z' g- {2 W2 C. X/ Z
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
5 m' H- d3 L& n3 e The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
" U; s, }5 f+ s) C ^respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by- M& l4 W! x" Y2 ^0 M
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
8 {" a) }/ M7 `; @+ }) Z% Idevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
/ ?: {. i' O! n" ~( B- P- c: E Eespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
4 [/ b! e P% a, }/ {- ]development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The0 @$ ^+ L& O! T" D
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to- v9 M' |1 u/ s0 H3 ]8 s
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and8 L# d! t7 X8 ^. N3 c! T. N0 i& w
single-family housing looks overpriced.
; n8 T3 C' y4 R9 }* y Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
3 o3 d. U1 A) k) |tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
# b5 ]7 _8 S; y/ W& x+ K" |metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
! e* R3 H! D* Fhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting [- P* r4 X+ t9 o0 t
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
8 ~* l0 q) q5 u$ {3 n/ sand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
- n( y$ V6 G9 G- Capartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary5 U* W6 f/ M8 ]4 i; b# L3 }
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
* m$ @5 k& d( {) \! m3 \shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into- `! X# D! ^9 @0 S; n- W2 s- u! O
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
0 l+ m' S( F3 }7 Cin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.! K) X7 t% z3 Z# l5 l1 b
5 p: M8 M" @5 j) z/ T
Canadian Markets to Watch, i( e3 S, p7 Q+ G5 C
" |& [: T4 _0 S; O The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central- G3 o$ y( c! A
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
: z& p' U# H% R' r% [; |+ V0 Xneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
( T9 ~ t: r/ u+ n8 ^( H5 tinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in0 h' ~. a+ ?1 R7 `& s4 i. w% ^
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
( N5 m: k" H- i- X# Zprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
j: [* ?4 J- }& B. E* owest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment* l: ?+ N5 G( T o: r) T8 N
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
% y5 \- b# [# j+ M+ s6 J% ~" i8 ~! V: Xwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
3 c3 L. f( |5 ~% dToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high) \ e* y7 l* t$ k
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.* g1 A; N' j/ \) S
& N' |" X) u" a b# e1 w
Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one& O8 S; ]. M! l( m; J/ ]* F
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a# y2 M8 S+ F: Q0 ^4 T* C' ~
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,7 c# x9 W# N# }
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
6 `5 P) j( W+ e8 W+ S3 UFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale7 ]; D$ Y* O3 ]4 L% ~( M
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
" R3 H/ y; r: H7 J4 b5 B# tCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays. @9 I6 v; ~, e) W/ G
strong, this market will continue to do well.8 e; p% b( v& i% z
/ ?" w7 n% h2 K4 ^
Vancouver8 F1 \- h/ r: z* w' {/ Z
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is: f& N" r( i# `. j
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
. F( u) T. w! ]( N# z5 @. z9 Creal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the, Q o* N1 ?1 s/ O" X
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
( G4 d8 v- j, J* a) g8 ~# zgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
2 G- @. X5 I; t6 ~5 B! K# urecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
2 E7 P; V* m& i' O3 j7 h# ^for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%' L( A @& C0 o: f9 I9 f1 O! Y& h
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very7 c* t. ]& h& g) r8 K+ {
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.7 b& r+ h$ R7 c1 D
+ Z- v" J( v4 D8 T Toronto: |* A% [: T/ z8 R5 \
3 \$ w$ @, l9 L, M6 ?- d& Q N; W& ]
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and; e) a: U' P% S# z
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is- Y0 g' T' Y% Y* v8 [* T# C
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
1 W4 k4 X& z1 }: l* d/ xindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.: E$ f9 D$ {# j( L# |5 u- @: W% o" x
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square* ? M6 c$ \) V5 N5 T
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and2 g& y, w8 v" h3 @1 U. ^, }
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.- E5 |* y, R2 E7 S: h2 @
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Montreal
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$ k0 [" W4 o; W1 K Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall) U4 h1 y5 p, e5 Z
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up3 J+ A- q: b: Q/ V3 ~3 e/ |" b
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
& p) C; t" F0 F) Y. E3 b5 |# y, \Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate% Y$ H" l2 K( V
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors- h5 l8 ^. v) O) ^9 D( ^% b
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
, S$ p0 c( X2 e. `! M
: z' P& e0 t7 z7 X: D/ p The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
- J. W" r) A4 u: E( {; `+ ^include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
8 F) T8 y1 [/ P1 Kmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos6 @9 C) Z( U) L' U' U3 v5 e
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest: Z g N; p1 d
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
6 x& n7 w% A, b- @ j0 eprices."
, y0 Y( h: H: i A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
% c: a3 H' D: g6 v* z0 [; cwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
: g4 ~ b( w& @; G9 n4 Y+ E+ s& j' _8 I- H
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,# V2 h- F9 B% _, Y5 c3 n
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
, _$ o, K% _& iclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries r9 Q O8 C+ p! E/ Q: M+ P
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop1 E) z3 n$ E8 H/ H& ~# z
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of- U/ L M( W6 r: ~ x0 a, X
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its+ H; D' W* }4 C H7 |/ `& ~
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
3 A# v5 L. k; [! |" y" Pcountry.5 U( }7 N2 I( O( y# ~7 e
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario7 j- o6 b: \2 u. M
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the# V7 z, P: j9 T1 {7 W* C4 l. Q {
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
; E. A: T+ d5 B0 h+ ]+ Qeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.7 H: y" g, h1 j- U
5 v+ U' M A! }. g
About the Urban Land Institute
8 \! g& D. D! M* `( J d
, N4 C4 T6 C O& G0 g The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and. F- E7 U4 _: V" K9 J2 }6 y. U
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
9 I$ R0 k2 F9 h$ j! i/ t Yleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
3 h: x& a) x# w! nthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
4 X1 r+ X+ N ^than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development6 y' s/ s% O# n
disciplines.. D# O! u# C! K$ I; X! Z2 z
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.& H T3 B* L) y6 _
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
" L+ [; Z9 I8 O- }5 M9 {% |& RCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
2 N, G% l) \0 x* z( B; h3 ynow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be+ n3 i3 Y$ \" _5 Y4 r( M
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
. P; D2 [( P! Y7 Q2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
9 }4 W2 Y4 Q d" d! |" G8 rHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,( D; R5 _& d% H1 \4 x3 Y- S) z7 j
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please& t* ?, Y+ ~$ ?$ M
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on7 H. }: E9 D6 ^
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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0 x1 b* A- F, ^( w/ O! y
1 q8 E8 T8 z6 Y9 j" c! W8 aFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,0 J6 l1 T% q- n3 `" W6 a6 z
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com9 b: F# Y3 P# \) W
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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+ H u" K0 Y4 p5 M6 `7 Y[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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