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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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; Q1 X# q% R$ E6 r" ODespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
5 r! N( E# A6 ~ TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US$ E: r2 N& X1 t
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern* b* q' W& Z u; E9 q7 e. ], {0 m
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
& J) R4 B. a& z$ {- ZTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
{) ?& b' T1 C! `# s! b+ zand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more; g- r9 U4 t% S$ {0 G& A* O
upbeat.5 D" V3 _& `/ W
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded: m! g- n6 v/ W$ x
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects# J' x- f' A" q: s; A3 ?+ v/ z4 f
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real- J4 p0 ?5 U: _8 t: F9 h& d
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
2 [$ L0 R8 _$ v# w0 brepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
6 B) q# c7 Z3 N. W3 t) A7 h; UOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world- J1 w# Z7 _2 }3 O7 L
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
. _# Q& y: G% C# s According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
4 `" a4 h0 ?; t4 g* g6 H) lReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment3 }9 l! {. ?7 j* E) o5 x$ c
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
/ s4 D2 g8 B5 ]' u+ | P, U) Obe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
6 V- B6 ^; V; u' r* ^; F% Rhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."7 q, R& V+ T+ G1 V, e8 q) Y
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the+ C0 K7 ~5 w# G# ?
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game7 x3 e; r1 ?, ^. f% m( j' w# D
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey( x7 E7 C2 x8 B- Z/ y
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
) \+ P* h* z1 lcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be8 I9 ~7 P* {1 _& t- ^
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.6 g7 r1 s; ~+ T" i# @+ [, v
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian) `% E3 R2 d* v4 b% N
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
7 Q4 X+ D/ Q5 P( v* q# Rcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land0 P& `) E5 w2 ]; B/ i0 R
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country. ?8 B8 d- e/ R0 V4 d) m
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
5 s( s( Q" b0 W) M9 ndevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
9 V+ N7 }# W' z1 hresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to& l" K" x8 M- O- }2 t& O3 g
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
/ s& e) |$ Q# N! G* C: a: N( `single-family housing looks overpriced.
5 X0 \& Y* P7 C P$ f1 r8 h: L* ~ Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with4 T9 s7 U8 V- \+ k
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
! @5 Q! c6 [3 y, qmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
3 b: Y a- V7 k& _1 uhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting; G7 F$ v( V: x' f: c; Y
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
) |& i& a" j2 s( [& r& Qand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental7 @3 o# |! K- z5 n& l6 S; g3 D, q
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
) T7 w8 C, r% ]/ fwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing) i/ m d2 r0 C
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
3 |' b6 s, p" V2 H3 }; z- x; Wthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
n6 u; G2 j' G: z2 Din other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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[+ e$ i2 f; ~. L/ n* j Canadian Markets to Watch& s: F" p8 V S, v2 V
t/ M v( {3 S6 r4 ~
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
; x0 _8 d9 H! v4 n! a. H8 ~+ Ecities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
* A; [! l* _0 f/ E% K* ?7 yneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back6 w% R7 V' e/ J: _2 P$ P$ M4 x
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in/ Q# j. _$ [% l6 y! c
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical" a# e4 F( b# N c% a7 ]
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out5 n6 k; m5 {0 i( g
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment1 p$ ]/ u8 B0 Z* G
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain( h% l! c2 G8 R5 z6 W; u6 h
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
+ q. A+ [3 k) r/ m: _6 }Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
% V* }; g7 ]: o0 eratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.9 S/ W* _ H8 u- }/ P" B% Z8 W
& F9 w! d" U7 X; L# q5 C
Calgary/Edmonton$ f/ q+ m$ E/ l1 ?
0 Q' d+ u2 i% y) h: R0 k' Z Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
5 D' C( ?+ H6 A: C" Vboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
7 w, M9 k s6 M( e/ Rbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,$ K: j- P5 y, m* h: ?
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
4 t' i* i/ V, ZFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
& _! |8 Y: m# m/ w' YHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the+ T" w2 N& H1 _$ l, }
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
( G, P2 }: \* X1 R, fstrong, this market will continue to do well.
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( @; }, E/ E* ^2 p Vancouver
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3 n8 h6 o" {5 T+ x* h0 u% E- h3 _ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
0 U) N/ k! W2 ^" P) Qbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
/ U* D( _( L( ^real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the6 v1 O! J* f2 e8 A) |0 Q: Q
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a# [; `5 B3 e' Y4 I8 ^/ L0 {
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
0 P5 L# j7 P+ {6 I! X+ \recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%3 Y1 O: }: y3 \1 P
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
2 \8 L1 V$ J( g w' j2 I% bfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very7 |* [" ?" R( z- C1 k$ O$ p
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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, ?+ ^# _* B0 V0 |( s" i Toronto) @. O, l/ `9 d& M* F7 K1 _" t# e
1 D2 w- K4 J; W& R. Z3 l; V Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
& ^0 S5 n: m0 m9 M' W6 B/ R* Tmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
. L8 }# e( g. Q9 ^. ~relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing9 J" f% o. \0 O2 V1 z
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.; g: P/ O2 \- j/ K
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
1 q0 H. s% U# @* Vfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and. Q1 T- z3 x8 H# X6 S
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
1 H% c# Q! c, |) c* d/ B# n9 b& _' J# l/ w$ B% y
Montreal- B6 x' C2 d v/ n' K' d/ Z6 S
5 b+ s- ]; [7 X Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall e8 L8 D; V* J' X' O' p$ V
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
2 G$ }' ?) `+ `- ^/ wshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
0 t. ]; h2 i7 F0 |1 X, WCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate& ]1 g) h: S$ t2 ?
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors' x3 N& w# |2 G$ [( m5 c' J- D
higher as a "hold" recommendation.2 ^: _" W# V" T
p$ t! b6 h# Y1 p/ L4 u The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years# a$ [: g6 {$ ~3 `/ ?" j7 A3 Y
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
9 X' e/ ?2 x) l+ S" Kmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
! C; w- _7 @2 G& ?8 v2 Knear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest* U0 e& |; M$ F0 P+ t* f2 b- s" j
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current1 ]4 W: I, {" F$ T" s! f
prices."
- @: h; f' U* H A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at$ s7 Y2 J1 L2 x! F+ S7 [
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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# Q6 Y( t/ k T5 W About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,5 N- Y2 g2 d, t. ?; Z6 e! H0 A
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its9 p3 ]8 {* v, ?8 I6 t
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries% H# Y' X+ Z8 F* n% _
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
s" K* j- h, P% P( R; ?$ x, |fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
, M$ z0 `1 J Y+ W1 g7 bexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
: V4 ]% p0 n' h- p3 Prelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
6 K+ @/ a: ~, U9 J8 n: [2 N; r# rcountry.
! w% I: Y p8 O! a7 n6 v "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario; }0 @" d4 {; }" ^: r7 T! n
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the+ b; M, O8 [( e4 P5 M9 Y/ \6 ^
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
: Y* D5 M+ U ?4 \: e3 b: O6 Seach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.$ a: \+ u: t$ _9 P- ]- _7 L/ Z5 y
: g) z- I8 g* I: E2 b About the Urban Land Institute
% V E2 l8 V" I$ C9 U' O8 K$ O: M+ |) w) p
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
m) i! ^5 X5 I: h8 m+ k) |research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide( P0 c' y" l7 I$ R8 [/ W" `
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
* ^# \7 ~ J7 k) n& t9 z' lthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
2 t3 {* ?$ N7 N; {; Dthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development7 x q! U, w7 w$ e* x! `8 C2 b
disciplines.+ k/ R1 Z3 L( y0 K
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.! Q8 a9 y/ b3 r* z: j- }! M
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
0 L+ w& {, g" ]& d$ G: U8 w: c) MCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
# |) G, |( m& |5 F/ r7 Hnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
3 b3 j. P3 b& p- m8 q' I1 v) Uhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
6 o# B! F- A( N( ?. P3 n2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake& Y( P$ i! v' c- w- l
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
! }+ U3 x: t3 t- H& qPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
* N$ B* P2 s3 [6 ~call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
# {5 L8 l/ G7 {9 @the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.6 ]% p; ~: }' k4 B$ g+ j
- S9 V6 L; c# X, k5 l" n2 u: I6 b1 L3 i
. N- q; k4 [; N6 ]+ G V8 d0 D8 kFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,& G7 a1 W) ]- r1 v1 g
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
+ ~- Y" W) o3 Whttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html1 k4 T& U4 f! Q. p5 g3 S( l
; }1 I4 ^" t' Q. w# n& o[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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