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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
5 I4 D6 O( @/ i% i. {% T) f$ j$ A+ {: i& d; y
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
/ o: v8 Z( G7 j7 M& G v TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
: t4 G- n3 w9 U) f6 \0 Gcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
6 u, c" j' v2 las the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging+ d, \' B) h5 C% @) O! b
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)1 l+ v0 ?2 b& r" f
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more: s% i; X- b6 X% O
upbeat.' T' {+ r+ a! u: {( ]( K! v$ S
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded# K6 a o! X9 \; N6 G% M' v
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects- H4 @! z( |7 M
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real6 ~: d' ~9 R3 d
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company1 f. E3 E+ X6 K4 D J
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
2 Z% ?$ @6 N7 l! g& A0 L8 ?: y: xOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
0 O% c; L f" ~+ ^/ yincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.7 _. G- P2 D1 x% T& N& ~1 b
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian, l: R! k2 Y7 J+ \* Z9 C) q7 W; a
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment/ s6 \. s) a8 d: v0 e& C4 ~/ ]
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
4 @( M& I8 \: R2 g' C6 N1 R' x: z' ]2 W5 ^be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
) ^2 r& C( O8 v# Mhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
" d: m: P+ J3 U# w& }7 | According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the) a& I; a1 _/ B3 H5 `6 }4 g
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
" w6 F- ~4 b" t/ S$ ~. H3 uspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
3 O# @9 [( @/ r$ r7 ^remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US. o1 D" x) k- i
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
! x2 L) }" w ^- I: u7 w4 Jvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.* G* X* R e6 H8 O3 L" g" e! Y
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
5 ~- _# ~. w% p8 j9 Q# z! |: \5 Vrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by3 k g2 k: W9 s/ A' E! |; C
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
; z0 [( U. H8 S7 c5 e$ ndevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
) B0 N$ b! T) F; ~9 o5 S" s+ pespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating3 H$ X6 O6 T, g8 g0 L
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The$ C- ~$ x$ R6 T! H
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to. b3 {$ g6 K u$ @; N4 U m
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
" v/ p% o% k) |" r4 @4 wsingle-family housing looks overpriced.( l4 q+ T3 u! J+ N A" I5 L( Q; g
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
; V5 o9 e( ?! b9 Q/ D6 a& `tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
5 Z4 S/ d8 d$ H8 p" q" }metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
% Q" `; V+ y4 N' P( P; V# zhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting% R. Y$ q9 L* l, n1 I$ H% q
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,& ^3 j6 _* J' X
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental! ~, ]9 i5 ?! x* @( ^
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
. L, H/ N7 h4 R5 g' |# D3 Jwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing1 u6 ~; t2 ~) F( z
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into3 \, \& { W& }& S; a
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
; X9 ~3 F/ n/ yin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.5 k' u7 K% K) v' r
+ g( ^- Q$ L2 m) P Canadian Markets to Watch) h# v5 k7 U5 V6 s
2 ]3 @! ]0 G* g d( E6 w The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central6 B, O0 b+ x- j1 B( i
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
8 a7 A- B& X/ e8 z/ K+ g+ Bneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
- b+ |9 [# ~ F) J6 jinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in& k4 }) L0 |# g7 G
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical8 O( r$ @- N3 j! R. T( R2 `( ]$ G
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
# V; s8 h- ]' g2 U! a3 X1 \west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
N6 b, N: }- ^# Y( [- G- e) [, t9 Aprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
8 i( S+ u- p5 Kwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.( d0 y. P8 q( a: A* y
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high; Z* q, O8 K7 ~4 e; H/ P q/ y0 t
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
: l7 G* U& z. M; l" n, s# T+ P& y9 R W2 C/ o
Calgary/Edmonton
# ]$ f5 B0 R$ G* A# E3 l3 T4 g Z. E) u- c* q
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one* [2 `& V4 S6 F: P
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
' i4 J7 G; q7 E6 H+ S! A5 obuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,. @: Q* l* e% R4 I
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.& {& r: P" X* F6 A6 E3 D: G
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
; c4 F" b$ w7 I' g1 FHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the* {9 H/ v" O: c7 y. P
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays2 O* U, A5 s$ f& l" s
strong, this market will continue to do well." }9 B& O( N0 u, f% D9 D/ | \
* A- R* [+ W1 @% q Vancouver
, \( V: Y0 F4 G2 d( S4 x! q. Y# Z% T# j) ~7 s+ }' x
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
1 D' e7 H1 ~* j( J; q& Q# E( b, @booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
- e3 Z" n( b0 i0 d. K& Breal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
7 s/ @, R9 F2 M4 q3 r& z4 P0 z" a* Zmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a. q7 a' L7 j Q% W9 a- {- y& Y
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
, X+ Q3 U' f( W5 h3 E1 zrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%. y3 [6 K7 ]+ `1 Z* J
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
; S5 a, L5 ^9 l+ W- ~/ O' B* nfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very; B$ f/ t# B' b7 d0 ^. e2 d+ k2 t
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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; f2 c. P7 z# j# v9 s2 V( r5 Q Toronto/ S0 {9 a- K, t, p4 G
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
# H. G0 L R# V: Q# |manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is4 K$ ]& G8 k9 }3 ?/ I( q0 K
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
# j$ ^% _' a& x& L$ N$ Nindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
^7 D3 H- n# T" O! Q4 YThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
5 G9 T: S2 U A" L) K$ }feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
" I/ d$ i- h/ X# LApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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$ o S7 \, @$ Y; s. J: y8 E Montreal# r e# P* E" P
, ^+ i6 z- Q5 z4 o4 [) N& h# ~$ S Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall* K+ j& P2 a! P7 t' b
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
3 w3 t7 I8 O' M" Fshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
9 D& n) K( J; [; n0 }/ HCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate) r) d3 ]* |# l
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors/ i [- K/ y# n4 K+ f. i$ S: K: x
higher as a "hold" recommendation.$ ^/ V/ f3 v5 M- L$ l5 G# P
% k* {9 u6 p' H" f3 ^' ~3 e( S: P The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
& z8 l! ~2 n: P+ x( t) f: ]3 Z" C/ Pinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy2 ?! I% G9 T+ D; ^
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
. |+ p, f6 A6 z! H0 L, ~9 s$ dnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest7 Z- `. T/ r5 K$ L
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current$ h. v6 |% h" R0 f6 s7 W. b& c9 h
prices.") k8 I% u5 K0 Q. k1 }; K- n
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
G! f7 B! p, E/ x# p' ?www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
1 z+ |! \" Y7 k8 U* e4 N1 |
/ W# c( F F6 m About PricewaterhouseCoopers3 K- w# ?& x# m. q$ Y: v! M
+ _0 P) l4 ~) x* e, G, Y/ Q
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,& B2 S& I7 \3 i+ l6 a0 B
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its! a$ K5 m9 A- Y9 M0 S
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries" u% V( r, a5 k* k7 o8 [5 m
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop( `' N9 x6 d3 Z
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
! Q5 E2 T' A$ lexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
! s' ?! a' F! F; T) n6 z1 p) p7 W" brelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
) l; L) m4 n0 w2 W3 l' xcountry.( U& o( l7 N) D
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
5 t0 g3 a9 M2 E5 }+ L$ Flimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the8 Y* J' J6 e. J- k* c3 X
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
; E2 |" R6 ]: @9 C& x) X E, Beach of which is a separate and independent legal entity., f4 t3 o4 @& b$ B! @0 ?! E8 C8 C
5 b/ u+ O; v7 O! J, D
About the Urban Land Institute
3 D2 Z+ ?; z0 y& w8 Z) a. B
/ F- o/ G* }) M: n* N The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and' O+ z8 B# l" n1 ^3 L' u
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide! N0 c, L& c- ~. \# }& B6 z# ?9 @' `
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
" T" V- p; ^ n5 L7 A5 ?thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
6 [4 k1 q' v$ c% J$ X( N* {+ dthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development$ B( c/ [7 |1 ^! ]0 V6 a# t7 ~: L
disciplines. a: v! M$ T# T5 s) O
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.& D g# s9 ?% t/ l
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District7 ?& P! A+ a* ~2 I/ C/ t$ O6 s
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
. n9 Y2 J/ d) m1 {: ~" W4 S. ynow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
" J& g+ w* D8 A3 Z& q4 bhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
3 q9 {. Q/ @6 D- f2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake C# j0 U1 O( i8 N u5 N
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
3 ]$ z9 W# G ~9 x6 F1 w: NPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please) j' P; Y! ]1 K2 J/ q! Y1 F
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
1 W" x s- X M, Rthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
+ U; |9 k" ]% g4 t6 H
0 ~7 _& N* S r7 C# [" @" |+ [6 Z+ E( C, T
& u$ F3 Y5 E P$ w1 DFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
) D" T& f' d: u. E2 A0 g, h(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
: ^! f/ }" h. X0 V7 R ?http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html, a1 O! V& \0 z" F
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