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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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' V' }5 d- w! J" \ q* q; @/ [6 SDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
2 }+ g( e% ?! W* y0 v- I/ Q0 e TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US8 S+ _+ s. e- V; w! _
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
: n# g6 N" j/ c" ~" m5 Jas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
6 q0 h# j5 A6 {6 ]2 H& W+ U5 w4 ATrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
^0 M5 ~! S% V7 land the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
\ E7 g4 B4 y1 xupbeat.# [3 W. w6 s3 q3 x
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded6 L5 Y! H; X4 J5 _( E" R2 `
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects% i# @* I/ Z! b6 k! D
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real, B4 Q* V* M+ k- p% O9 U1 n) k
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
) K1 K7 H7 J" ]( G5 Y: V, erepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.+ d! K6 |8 T# D( u
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
1 i) S4 W9 k* T; {: P* lincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
6 `: i8 m1 u0 X' i According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
& c" f7 b- b, U# D) cReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment+ R( U/ \ ?) N+ B- w
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
+ h! E# r0 w7 Bbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record, t% b% I3 }5 k5 R6 Z
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."0 I1 r! k7 w* s( L; l
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
/ y- H) t h& N- X2 v+ e0 [border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game- ~7 A8 W! Z f$ |" u
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
) @* {9 ] ?/ y% b+ lremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
; D# H/ Y4 C3 t, c/ kcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be, d) v- \! N/ Q" N# s) J
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
& Z0 l' g% |' ~ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian4 V- J' D) W% }; T
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
$ ]$ f- ^) d; x' e' H" U# D: dcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
: V4 ~( M7 y! h- U8 O. Cdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
; {. u. H1 Z& v S# x, {especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
% ` a4 C( e0 R7 p/ v j8 udevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The! q& t/ r8 k# c/ i
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to& G4 F, x* ~& p/ Z+ ~
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
+ j7 Q! l0 o" s& y* R1 |single-family housing looks overpriced.) M- V- J# t" J. J
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
5 g' j8 z: S! J9 A* N9 gtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian4 R/ O0 t1 o; ^6 F# V( c
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push6 O, a# O/ A) ?/ C0 i
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting" B" I$ V- E2 P' O( G; V6 _. s3 @
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
7 j1 `5 Y6 m8 n. G& cand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental8 a+ e: k9 Z; x$ B) q, s
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
) D8 ?9 d. J4 @8 c2 D3 g# I5 Xwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing" l/ h/ c X4 E9 |& s- _
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into- O8 t) p" a* z, d Z3 U
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development8 z& p' x6 Y8 G* D5 r) m6 J
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.3 O7 P- v; T( X3 b" s
+ Z. }4 L) S9 ~6 E( U& ^" j Canadian Markets to Watch
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' ?5 E& K; | n8 e0 I The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central0 S/ @$ B* Z# r ~* F% M
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
@- h$ v, n3 n1 g0 ]neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
2 ~) h; t( C' @7 O2 q# @9 u3 Zinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
( d/ L$ H+ j8 Q ldowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
$ ?$ G; A& E& u' F" y. Kprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
1 V( r# A) J; I% R9 R# \9 }west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
0 J( E% D2 B3 n% @6 fprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain* X1 i/ {' B* ], H- G
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
: d6 _! O r% e) @2 Y5 yToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high# v! c9 S6 e2 @
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.2 n, e+ n, g1 `9 n2 c/ f9 v; `, ~
4 s2 |6 M2 T5 y7 P6 ]- |. k: ^
Calgary/Edmonton8 f/ K+ g9 i0 d7 | }
p N" P9 _9 y- ]- M5 E2 S+ w Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one3 H: p$ f: W( j' ^* H5 N8 ?- p" W
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a* M. `1 d& S! n$ z
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
0 {2 i1 G4 h1 W& _5 L48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property., m% u, s5 H# T
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
' }! F9 _6 E9 u# l9 ~, RHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the2 F- y+ i& U; t L9 X& p1 H$ d9 I
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays3 P' f ~) q6 X" _" B/ Z) W( K- n
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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# I! P% q9 i* p9 f+ V ` Vancouver9 R1 ~- h3 n# O! ^
; J+ B0 |/ Q8 m! j+ v& |3 ?0 n
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is n7 l# H: f/ J: P
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
. } k6 o0 F0 p x' E5 B& b; Areal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the$ ^4 z, B) Y! L. M$ k4 z
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a, o, j3 d+ C/ x9 E0 A4 t0 i' B4 u
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy% I& x: U n* F9 E' m/ V* l# {
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%* @+ z) M: y: m1 W( {# f! b' O+ d
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
5 [- |( g# u- x X ?for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
: t# @5 L2 o wgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.4 k2 }, e0 Y" N- y7 D# H2 g
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Toronto4 G$ u+ Z) _& y$ k
o% H5 w: v3 l) ` Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
8 q" v6 \) @- I! B% q xmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
* |& E K5 F* F% B ^3 ~. }8 g0 P3 `relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
( r+ y) w% V `1 m3 f2 R" |industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.2 n% e4 a+ Z- P0 R ^! o* O
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square" ~) i& M& l1 @" M. X; u
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and$ T9 @1 g/ d+ E4 F c
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
8 Q5 [% q, W* _) u+ J6 U. A9 Y- Z/ \4 @1 {# C
Montreal5 q: u: U& I. ?. C4 D# m
1 Y0 |& h+ P, w( W2 U Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall: O3 R: h9 l% w c' f5 Z/ ]
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
& V' p! x4 f- L6 j, a- rshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in& c4 T- Q# o: @3 x9 h* x: m$ Z
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
1 G. T( W/ _0 \' q* R1 ~+ V2 Usectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors# j% Y# h) o9 D* M$ g5 `+ W
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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7 r; u; X) o3 { The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
2 j' {3 Y7 e# m u, Vinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy1 [. r! j% u7 Y; S+ @ L
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
( V* b/ J6 R$ ` x# T5 \$ q2 Knear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
4 b5 L1 X! F2 foverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current+ ~! Z4 v( R& E* a) t) y( y: R
prices."& W+ @0 [# z, ~7 ?
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at2 j% I8 P! h1 u" X8 U
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers- b9 w L! z4 f0 j7 g
+ ~! s$ m! H# ]$ g
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
. M- q1 r! }5 `; q0 mtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its8 a1 S. ^) h* f8 A
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries$ \, ^5 [% b6 Y" j, H
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop i) q: u' D% B, E: W3 H# F
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
- C8 P7 t2 y+ dexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
' x/ d$ p1 j6 z, B# A. \" P1 I |related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
( p2 l8 z. ?' G* H2 [0 H2 ucountry.6 p% V9 {8 J: H
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
4 y$ e0 O5 h7 U9 k. q5 Nlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the# O% _/ }; [5 o% h# i, p" r
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,+ E; ]6 q& `, H9 b, N
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.: \' `( [: N7 V- ^+ j
/ l, a: v0 m2 q1 F
About the Urban Land Institute
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$ T2 u# A& D5 @2 O, F+ Y) W The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
! J: Z" C A4 i$ M; ~: i- |' Hresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide- ~1 p) N! N2 F/ T. \1 \- A
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating' C5 w" }+ Y+ r6 _
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more# F: J% M3 @+ a
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development5 Q+ d* l8 V2 `; w. c
disciplines.
# [" H. o9 S9 T% ^' x7 }% y The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.; w; O) v9 G3 y* Y% [( K/ K. h
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District; J' O0 @/ Y" Y
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
) Z1 Y) c0 m5 z$ C5 _" J& w9 snow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
3 i6 f/ m' b9 R$ I' N+ H" @hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
' c* w: z$ ]1 R+ Z5 |1 @2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake: V( [5 b: y$ N4 ^. N8 J
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
% c# t2 a# J' m* x8 PPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
% C. Y3 X6 U- `: n5 Icall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on. o* l' _: M. a4 o6 w$ j
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.- @ E9 ~5 B; i/ [
/ Y4 M1 G5 F0 `6 f/ S' M* m
+ M' ^$ G8 x4 X8 @4 X& O0 s7 j9 I1 S
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
2 h* o- v R) I# v! a. o& Y(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
$ o, r6 H2 h- Ahttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html: z) f" k+ ~$ o5 g) Z
6 S; `; f9 Y8 j; W' ][ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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