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Attention Real Estate Reporters: e3 h R# V1 l* j3 `- |
# T, f8 k7 y! l) YDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
. W+ O5 W2 Q& k8 r1 J TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
2 J8 v! {+ m1 O3 m: Pcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
. z$ g% J& g3 O* qas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging1 ]4 t8 m' t% k4 v/ h
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)9 \; | K3 s* C p a* v( I
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
2 ]3 U& V$ y g; |$ w8 Wupbeat.
! c K+ M1 T7 z4 O# k$ D/ B, j Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
" P* k$ o" V* L0 ?annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
$ A. D. E# g; v8 Linterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real' o; v: o% v/ I# [7 `4 q$ b
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
; r" W. w4 \4 x! lrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
8 b/ V- ^5 c2 B$ @/ N3 K3 bOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
. z; b# U$ I, `6 i' u7 o+ ~+ g# Cincluding Asia Pacific and Europe. A. P2 l9 J& [. X
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
1 u% I! R% Y3 Q! [9 V4 M8 B% GReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
% ]5 k$ i! v5 Qenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to# X2 {& |. P0 O/ E6 k/ t
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record, w$ ]0 {$ _$ C4 t
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."! v6 C0 i* v$ V& ]/ f! e
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the+ w9 m! a& s6 S/ r1 |' T; W
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
5 z3 D8 s/ v, D2 Gspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
# [2 t& h( r X: P: w- T8 Rremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
$ l- {, c& Y K% ocorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
# d( \5 s& c+ M! dvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.% C0 m, l$ m9 R# i: o. L- `, W
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian1 P2 ^; Q& P# U9 @, j
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
0 ^) u2 `( P. Y; b: ~commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land. F4 M# F$ s0 Q% ~3 J
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
, f+ @% w5 _( V6 U3 Q1 Uespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating) o1 q3 M: Y+ [7 i; e/ Z+ w
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The% e/ t! y/ l( D4 U+ V
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
' q) O/ L- b5 j2 B! A9 L0 j6 [7 stake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
, O% d. ?' Q+ g; Rsingle-family housing looks overpriced." h2 d& }3 r7 B a
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
; p% k! U a% b0 Y3 p' m7 jtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
/ `' p6 M, |7 z9 q+ {/ S& }, dmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push" T7 @6 r% ]# I3 I; z
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting" S: L" X t6 H( M+ T
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,$ q$ T5 V% r6 ^1 b9 ]* M$ v9 g
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
9 h3 [# k2 c$ s- `8 W; k9 }apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary9 V9 d' C D; F0 P8 T
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
% l- Q: |3 U# {; c4 X% U! gshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
" c+ R9 L( n. U4 J4 i1 fthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
: R4 b6 J8 p1 I+ iin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
) P" o0 x) s }5 M8 w; @& \% h0 x
$ U# E* k2 D- F, J _8 F6 Z Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central# d# U) b$ g( b' f7 P
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour0 ~/ T) \& I1 l1 W" A- k
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back2 S2 @7 G( H* ~. Z
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
( i* z. i+ `$ c9 ~: f1 [/ S$ `0 cdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical) ?2 x8 P+ k# _
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out: ~3 r3 Q- {. N! B1 k* [, }. D. w
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
5 l8 O {) y. J0 Mprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain' w$ T2 K7 h$ G
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.+ M K& j+ o, O3 `* j
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high O, V8 \& C+ Q& g- F; s+ \ P, @5 o
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.7 p7 V1 h% z" Z5 [
0 i6 D1 l! f) R5 p% l2 Y! _
Calgary/Edmonton
, [( w% b6 r' Q/ @( B' B8 h E; T4 w$ O" K. k: r' V, I _
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
, ~" i% z V) {" q4 c; z) E4 Zboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a c1 ]+ y2 ~( i! X# s! {
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
4 U7 d4 r: t' `: Q0 \48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
8 v4 t' b3 G: U \) H8 }6 NFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale9 ?( K# I+ R% F2 b: }4 @! P7 ^# P* J
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
z7 P( k1 T" _Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays9 W5 ]8 k7 t" D2 F$ S- a/ s$ q
strong, this market will continue to do well.( [2 t9 [5 }, F3 X& B: J
6 A- K% i' V5 H4 C. j" S% y/ @9 S- G Vancouver2 L: w% ]- y0 B+ q- {5 z! f. ]
( x. C% J3 ~, z' W0 M Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
+ H( t/ W/ Q- {/ I0 Bbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
+ X( Z/ {6 I. i9 i! a! qreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
) l) j% ?& y6 {$ Y; A1 J% e5 E( mmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a9 i7 l ?: z) [! w) n
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
`0 `% }% z# ]5 x' P! T) S& L3 frecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
* ^# D3 G; r" X; n# p: Y" K. R7 t0 ifor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%4 z% p' ?4 [% J
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very1 d: h( U' l: r! M r! X% t1 n
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
7 d% Q5 P5 d1 o0 f! A( \. q! f4 ~% W; X2 u; t* g" V
Toronto
5 R: i. ]: u# }6 [
' y! c9 z$ A' ?& | Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
2 W6 j9 P+ y. A: H4 g' Wmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
5 B: J, E4 A) R" _: W! irelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing4 }8 M' h5 x, @* J% q# C
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.& O/ h; n5 P; L# f+ b
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
2 v; Q8 X1 ]$ y! h3 H' N: O' pfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and: q" A) U5 k# [) a
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
! c! I3 u& h; b$ l8 ^+ I/ q6 r- A/ e V4 r$ j( g" I
Montreal* X6 P. a% V O$ Y% r
* q1 S5 O& R. e5 O3 C
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
/ Y( S( _. w! \; [growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up* Z: ]! E$ v& b" ^8 d$ B
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in+ y" b4 \3 j6 g" h2 n I
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate; A, S5 t' v. w# b+ {7 h
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors, |1 m3 j3 Q! n
higher as a "hold" recommendation.4 ], E% J3 l! V- w* N' ?8 x
3 S: d6 R& i* M
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years& r+ g6 S6 `. Y
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy: C% Q/ q7 D t/ k& j( e
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
# m1 u: @0 E! j: vnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
" H9 l/ M! y) x# Eoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
8 e8 ~; D3 }& @- [) u/ D' Y3 T) |3 wprices."# ^/ P6 B' ^1 D; |( ~
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
Q2 Z/ @6 ~( rwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
& H9 D/ M8 t3 G. }0 I2 Y7 e
+ M3 W7 o; L7 V About PricewaterhouseCoopers
9 `6 s% F) `0 V% y V' s1 X0 S+ w' l; e" D5 B& x& X+ ~1 b( y
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
' \2 B- ~4 ^4 E! E% O) G7 [$ Rtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its8 g+ t( O3 N% I, e& [
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
- E; \" l; d* ^% Vacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop: w( D( l# X- s* ]
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of. U; _, @3 P+ o" c
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its! n2 |8 H8 m5 C' i
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the" h, s2 l3 t* d" C
country., ~% w# [5 B/ @/ g
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
/ p+ t1 c, W/ ~ c" rlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
, E" Y' b! O9 g' N6 BPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,) h0 l4 `# p" \) I+ [
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.1 Z$ n8 G4 k7 F- R% `
) W0 x2 L' i1 u* s, N About the Urban Land Institute( N0 c, e% ^1 K1 \3 t( i0 ?
% n9 f% x7 w/ h
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and4 X8 k* s) C' W, I( p3 m* V6 I8 G
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
" J1 f2 K% l6 j/ Fleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
( ?4 l: u. s4 [/ W$ B6 d3 Mthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more/ x" s4 \/ C3 r0 W" E5 B k3 M
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
) b' C3 X" N' Z8 u9 sdisciplines.4 f% J0 O L% n% R4 E/ T' A0 k
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
" J+ @' E9 y+ b+ r" p& f9 s: dWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
% J6 G! G$ t+ ~: Z) ~Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is0 I3 k) ^$ s& {8 c8 x
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
0 \! k4 L; r3 b( m: m R0 E$ Bhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
( p4 k8 D( |2 x( c8 C" X% v2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake1 f: R: z+ p9 Q
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,3 P1 x1 ~, d! b
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
( m. ?! }$ U3 W" X6 Y) I# y8 scall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on; ~+ U6 @& C% Q, t0 F4 I" b1 k( l
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
* E# t( o$ `& t. T6 N
8 L' G: a) r5 t6 v3 c# d, B: d) u' |4 L1 V0 ^, V+ z! u4 \
+ g$ t; u) }3 x+ d$ L, `% l6 y _$ [For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
* M; w* D @9 s$ l& C* l2 p8 Q0 b! X3 d: ?(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
$ `5 v7 r }: c2 c! Rhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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