Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
* x' n0 U5 Z; u2 s5 qNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
& ?" {- K( Q% l8 J) l
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
3 c1 |$ I% M9 Q$ S
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
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" i& Z1 Q0 v) h* R2 v' UJul 2007
NA
: Q$ {9 \1 a; e, W 2328
717
7 K1 H5 m1 Y- @5 j! [0 P 442,752
& Q/ f7 j9 M1 D- M- p+ I2 H  F' _ 410,000
320
5 m/ r3 ]0 g$ d( s# X. x 28
$ R" z8 ~1 y7 W* {- q6 H1 ~ 31%

Jun 2007
NA
( B! V  _+ ^* a, C8 f  Y 2661
! ~  i- j) |' f* G( ^ 1011
442,817
) z2 H9 O! ~( d/ Q, \ 409,000
328
2 N, J% E8 \7 Q; M" B% j 22
% O) ~9 T8 M3 m( B  d0 S* i( l; i) q 38%
8 y' F# s2 d- }" l1 o6 Z
" A( L$ E- p+ s* @May 2007
NA
2288
5 q% |- Z. y( f0 l. y# ^ 1261
" ]0 {' M# o/ W; b9 z 451,216
415,000
322
6 u9 N6 u# ?" a 19
, p( G, y* p$ N1 b7 J5 Z: J  n 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
- Q; h& t6 _' m9 Q4 Z& {" D) v这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
5 C: `" @& x* z, U- e' D存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

; K4 p7 k! V* n7 Y, k
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
- D' y9 ]# U8 C0 m0 d3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
7 U& i) b2 }$ x& s/ f2 l存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

# Q. w3 i" T/ d1 ~8 L
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
* c0 W7 e" j% `! v* W+ a( P) N
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
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$ G" x2 E3 C  }1 r就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

2 p/ }, s% z" L" \  r* \' r这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

' E! W# {' e8 |$ |: m

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
7 X: o- Z% ?9 |7 ~; JDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
# U& U4 {6 @( A  \" oThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
$ G; @/ `( I8 x( @6 G6 {In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
' m$ H5 b0 `8 nIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
, y, F5 C4 K8 ?8 [4 l# ~: k. s% cHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

  b5 H% H2 {) T- ?8 EI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
9 N: I) D2 |% N- f2 bMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
* {1 {$ f5 c/ ~; _Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

. E" b! I6 l/ k5 V& _QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
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) d  c, n* [  [$ O9 Q$ ?I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
# N9 x& u" h1 N( {0 e8 L4 x/ ^! F1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
( R  v, z8 T/ I4 C3 B9 f$ o1 N( @3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

% y/ P. Z0 \. B6 @9 T0 |- ]下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
4 G0 \" \8 X# H) _  u
% `% N' d( z. p  Y0 T/ k6 _/ k
& D2 j2 z% {. K! N
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
0 t8 \) c8 z& N看来，观察days inventory 更重要。