Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
* R) a7 t; K$ p7 }2 \' G2 |$ nMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
" e9 l( ^3 \# X- e) y% V' s$ b( fNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

. L- \  s6 S5 O( }/ ZDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
8 e0 @- \2 m0 D/ W' F& }
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
2 j$ ^2 h( Q% U+ Q
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
" N: r: A5 I5 Y: T6 @
4 u- f8 F' y" |/ A% x2 Q# W! cAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

+ W! Z/ y6 u% O& X$ k5 u( g0 fJul 2007
NA
) ~; D+ D# C5 U 2328
717
4 T( q& v2 r9 k! c5 \7 h3 C' { 442,752
% a( m2 V; N! H$ \6 A" { 410,000
2 _5 ]) g5 B" h% i4 q 320
28
% Z+ `. r& @4 q" H' H! Z; p 31%

Jun 2007
NA
9 f# l( x/ N& w: e- \$ ~ 2661
1011
' j! y! W, R3 L$ N% e! B* u% S& p 442,817
' u" R2 Z' Q% V/ I 409,000
$ b0 A: G/ i) B( h9 y 328
& i. x; ]2 `6 |: \* Y 22
3 N& y6 y: h) k. n3 g% M 38%

& D( l3 E+ g4 W; D) BMay 2007
0 h1 V6 H7 D/ z! z0 j NA
+ S4 w5 c$ X5 P3 f 2288
1261
451,216
/ D4 |# z7 g) O" x% I 415,000
322
- {& ~, ~  E+ X- Q; @' E 19
& a7 S: d' |8 I, x: s  v7 z 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
) S% a" _! b  P  z9 L: l6 i存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
& M" ?- q9 G! i% {鉴定完毕！

; ]6 E) J2 z5 a2 I1 r* x3 F) h% {- f
: Y; u' Y8 c: M用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
- t7 o7 F" ?6 x0 P' [2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。
6 q2 I4 e; i1 h3 s4 u. y+ {+ |
, q8 }, H. W+ S/ n% U* t9 ~新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
% ?: V6 X8 S" Q6 A/ C9 d+ k6 \% X
: n2 `( V* }' k6 Q- H3 N$ m1 E! |这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
6 s5 u" y  w1 I0 g9 K& NDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
& C1 F1 P0 G/ ]" v, T1 p  V( k* P3 C, Z) ODon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
" o; G6 R# r. g, ^! O1 ?6 pIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
7 G+ T0 H1 n) v% J. }3 K" F: Q. dgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
' k, y: _. ]! L: P" z% x& k, HHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

) b. @4 O3 J& X- G" ^I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
4 G, y4 q1 E$ x# ~Edmonton Single Family Home
- Z# r. t1 \0 Y6 G- {$ YMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
) c% t: ]: O1 j, t7 LIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

9 k. q, b1 ~2 L+ wQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
$ E2 t' {! }9 e; P1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
3 ?% J# _, c. U2 G& e9 l2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

/ w# j$ `) S) ], ^$ S  F; y; u
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


5 n6 J4 h5 c" O
9 ]+ R7 ]" b) p+ `' F只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
& E7 a9 ?6 R0 ]看来，观察days inventory 更重要。