Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
' A, h* A/ u# b1 @1 b3 B8 Q# PMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
* o0 _! D( \9 {
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

) G/ @! z" K: y: z, ?$ gSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
; H" x7 [4 ^/ Z+ }5 m8 d1 K
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
$ D3 v. @. S( u6 F& S
Jul 2007
NA
8 h! M4 ]9 R/ \7 J2 p* C; H 2328
& g6 t; I% p+ W- l 717
# n5 Y* C) X9 P0 D 442,752
410,000
+ o' b' i( L% X- g; t: ]; D 320
28
; L  v+ J+ J: a8 B 31%
6 M* d. Q( |% h& T3 k
5 S3 K' W" {+ b" \+ P' t+ p+ yJun 2007
NA
8 @, R/ ]2 j. O; s1 p0 u 2661
1011
( ~  d9 _3 |6 a* o' ^# A7 O 442,817
409,000
328
22
38%

4 P! l, n  }' d& |0 D, ^' JMay 2007
: `0 P/ c6 ?3 h NA
2288
4 p9 L+ B  A$ f' P; K7 K 1261
: y; ^( C5 d" k1 H1 {, R/ [ 451,216
415,000
0 I+ U' E( \7 F4 n 322
0 Z! @" L5 Y! E, @/ W3 {3 `3 P 19
7 ^0 y' C. Y1 c 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
/ [3 x" t! a# V' R9 K6 V7 T' H存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

# S. a' s/ c9 ?- j
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
: I5 o& G2 R4 P6 U! S) C& x1 W3 V2 U: b存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

& p" a. R: Y! A3 B7 `2 ]
; {: q; s- }! z/ [0 U3 G- H呵呵，太不专业了吧。
: \1 A1 @9 s5 l: d2 y) a9 Y
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
. o) Q  a  V4 G' }2 }# \/ K4 v
3 c8 I. f* J+ d1 S2 R% `0 `2 m就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
5 a; `5 l% q# Z( n; B' x
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
/ K. \3 h  L4 {3 JDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

9 ?4 F7 |+ s  Y2 P* q9 z1 v2 a

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
& z# k" t) v1 L. I: `) J  eDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
# A) B7 T! _) g4 B/ EThat is what i say half full or half empty.
5 r5 p) g* [- ~8 p. a, D0 K, Jgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
) ]' R0 r" t9 [0 L# hIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
6 h& _8 ]) a6 ~: \How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
3 [: x% Y" z7 P3 }5 B; NEdmonton Single Family Home
$ J  P* a- H  c' m: vMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
; E7 k- f8 x; I6 cIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
' U" V; k" e# l! b* H  @5 A

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

; g7 v" S8 x: Q4 ]7 Z

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
6 ^+ q9 G1 d* r2 a2 t* i& l, b2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

8 T7 [4 I# y; `( p& i3 _% Z7 l
/ |8 L8 L, p8 ~: c# c8 w下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
0 E+ C6 g! r! L) O( w, ]: p! D! x

% x" U; l0 k+ Z# X+ g4 H
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
/ E# ?& _& m1 S; @3 @看来，观察days inventory 更重要。