Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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9 {6 ^" l1 M5 F# \* mDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

7 n# h( Z2 s. |. w- ~4 w$ QOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
; c2 h( s' `0 H4 I) S' o5 j3 X
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
9 t7 o! @; o2 _2 }& r
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
6 R+ b8 R$ h& N! e5 k8 y NA
, Y; ?7 G( r1 ~* W 2328
717
442,752
1 s( u$ U& E3 f/ y$ S- ~ 410,000
320
( d7 V( Y. ~: F 28
/ M  ]4 R8 W# H4 K& z 31%
; ]* t7 F$ j% L+ Z. t  ~& m$ `* l
, H/ C) [: ?% B- H' H) iJun 2007
NA
) y9 C1 m! I! ^% F 2661
% q1 e- O- a; Q- P3 ? 1011
442,817
( N7 o: G' h4 _" s 409,000
328
6 g- d0 D1 e5 g& S' a 22
8 H- w& U5 |: g! r3 F% G% n 38%
( F1 i- Q' d; t$ v5 f- ]+ J( V
, J; U) N% E# Q2 P! v( ^* FMay 2007
- f" Y% I9 y: d NA
: l' k( k) o0 t1 v 2288
) E9 C6 |) \& _( f& d5 T5 g 1261
9 {' S  k# ]" J$ V7 D/ W+ ?1 l! J 451,216
415,000
& N1 i% B" D. p2 C1 s8 n* u 322
19
% K- R- E3 `" @) k5 | 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
& T- r; {  ^2 F' y存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

( A/ f2 f( o1 @( `& L
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
0 K) o0 |7 K- @/ M$ R1 P存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
. J+ M: m# ~' p1 I! v! f1 _) o鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

. N8 M3 u: E$ s- L- m# b: D0 A$ ?新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
) t9 G/ q  v% {2 U8 s. A! q
8 Z7 }9 z8 d# e* `就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

% P- w7 {8 g" G6 Z5 y2 u这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
: h5 _/ D1 ~- g. m  t) s0 FDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

% n6 g3 h2 @8 z
; }) B. M0 a  Y1 q

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
+ [. J7 Q! s. o6 f+ ^Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
+ F' O% x2 _' P; `! y. J) ~Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
0 N$ m9 [7 B' A6 E5 ^* a5 ^" zNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

  v" v" U0 [% X6 i- P% U) g; WQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
9 Y) y! {! L0 o9 j& X
, q2 U" i& a. e; |
5 U9 n0 N& j+ D% x. u% vI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

* y1 F) ?: }* }  y5 ^

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
: |# w) t1 }4 k& ?' Y1 _3 v1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
( N8 m. q! c# X( x% R/ H2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
% F/ C) J3 b0 t7 L# W! o9 H" G3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

7 D! Y' _8 d- J$ y: N4 e下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
' o3 e* n. q4 g7 v& t& I. N
! w- B) d! a# @- E0 ~( J2 [

% ?" W4 T5 {6 r6 h2 h4 C只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。