Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
6 _& _8 y; `  W; b7 E7 k+ vMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
6 H2 N% j: ?4 T' I7 J# D$ tNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
& J# F# P  s" m: R' P
; ~' C& n" F- ~Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

  x  H5 x, U5 F3 z1 p  l7 QOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

  `7 T2 u& z+ y! Y, N5 ?& DSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

7 N+ Y, _, i5 `; pAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
- a1 w8 W0 O# s" r 2328
717
. T) l5 t$ N  b4 B 442,752
410,000
320
3 n$ O4 b$ z8 _, w% t# E 28
6 H6 {" d  {# j9 u  I! t 31%

Jun 2007
NA
+ T. ~9 P  k% O9 P4 V 2661
: ~+ G1 u0 ~: s: { 1011
# h4 y2 A- Z8 w* ?0 y7 z+ R 442,817
* U& J$ ^! A1 g8 h# ~; B 409,000
$ T* j* U# W- r0 G% B8 R 328
1 I% U" c: Q8 G2 g. Q0 L 22
38%

May 2007
NA
/ j% u' U! O1 q 2288
1261
) ]) d2 P+ }1 \- ^- n. \ 451,216
415,000
0 c+ M; N- ^; \  }- V3 ]9 K+ g4 Y 322
19
1 b- U2 b) b5 k$ J: C% p; R 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
. x. a6 E( e, L2 P9 {这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
$ ]- q! D: u  U7 b: o鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

1 X9 w! i9 q2 M8 R, M7 n) l呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

) r- w& I+ M! C( d7 ]; H这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
9 F) Z; z2 u( [Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
. R% v+ M* G/ x% [8 C: `How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
) g/ {+ |* V: D. i; x+ o" f* j. r  {; NIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
6 Y7 J6 v. ?8 A( d% K3 k6 e! @How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

. y9 u9 ?/ @$ w$ k+ d( K6 }7 x
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
. B6 z9 p. X9 B; D7 DEdmonton Single Family Home
5 d$ E% q5 E% e/ ]MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
) ^0 O0 N' l, a* e5 M! JNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

# g; ^; t* L7 z# }$ DQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
$ s- ]  o* L2 u1 _$ }2 A

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

- a; W& x. Y4 l& X& U6 q
, _; S% b( s; K# W% S9 e! D下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
, j5 ^2 i7 I& H9 l: O  ~
8 s0 a: b/ J, }9 e+ R
! ~: l# R5 I" F% S" W
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。