Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
+ m! p# b* F& j- kMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
8 `5 `8 s% K' Q, Q8 s) hIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
3 g9 `: a: i0 d; {. }, ]% gNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
; R5 [, ?% x5 s* A- m  x. z; ^6 {
" ^) z, k% i8 j: W; E: ~, D- ASep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
5 p. T+ g* }: @- I
+ d  Y/ h' I: {. l* \  S% XAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
! ^8 V6 W% r  r! r- f& O6 i
- \7 \! P6 u9 Y: Y# L* SJul 2007
NA
/ M; U$ A/ D" }6 w7 ^9 H& A 2328
0 ]$ d# h" p+ R9 Z6 p4 Q; W 717
442,752
410,000
320
. C& [6 z! j! c" t 28
/ f3 _! Z7 n  t 31%
1 y' N7 I! _' l: p
Jun 2007
, `" Z, Y# b8 @; Y NA
2661
0 H8 [/ w/ d% V5 }% d' p 1011
/ g4 z+ G# I7 F/ r6 _ 442,817
409,000
/ Z1 a& Y) c+ }+ `4 Z 328
# E" m- v9 |/ Q9 m- g2 B0 M7 D 22
& M4 @; F/ v  \0 u5 J) p 38%

' |& k  S0 S4 ]4 e4 sMay 2007
' c9 N% f# \  v; h: Y6 h NA
2288
1261
451,216
415,000
322
  f9 I2 Z2 D& @0 @4 V 19
7 }! u0 V+ S8 E9 C4 U6 A/ f4 V/ v4 M9 x 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

8 ^* V& w! _) X, H( b1 I
: k2 S$ [6 ?" a0 r( c' ~用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
7 M/ p5 J. }8 n7 A7 R2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

+ b) j+ C( r9 r就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
8 F' b3 g+ B8 i/ iDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
& ~3 n# N& r8 HDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

! N7 j7 D( I: Q' v: \

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
7 n; Z4 Q7 @7 O- ~That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
+ ]+ p7 k* l& e" s, t- C0 QIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

  ~8 [9 |: I. t3 \3 OI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
- z& k" {) Z+ T! S3 MNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
/ Q  ~* o+ i9 F$ w% V4 z

% \3 ?! i( t1 J  }  _' pI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
7 C/ A- \( D! L9 m" G1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
: f" U" S/ r$ F3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
% C$ N7 Z+ ^* C& n0 S/ o


只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。