Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
9 ]; `8 D: o% @9 _Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
TD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
RBC can give you 4.0%.
  P0 T" U2 d; `  H$ c% _(Roughly)
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
7 l6 v) S' J7 F- ZAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
4 h0 D& \# A& S. {From the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
Rough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
- o! E+ S/ _8 S4 d0 oBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
; o+ _8 o. x! R6 PDeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
4 P8 ]7 D+ W( X; ^; cI am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
) F/ B7 i: b8 FBut, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.

All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
5 j6 ]& u" Y) a/ y5 L8 M

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
# @3 k: e1 D7 z; d! W- bWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
2 M# e5 V7 T3 V0 {! y" T* E# z) oNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
* J7 n$ ?" L% j9 a+ |If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

# x. z, l9 ~" n* P

这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
3 n7 W( n/ h+ S2 U' X2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
, W1 S  G" \8 @  l/ y, r如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
! J* [' E( y% Z* }5 k6 O政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
  W( m7 K+ z9 h- F4 {Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

* `0 G6 o! e9 [5 H' v; u5 ~呵呵，多打了个0。

多谢。
+ z) \+ _# M7 w. v
/ c4 b0 ~: H  ?& b" Y把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
' {0 C# v+ @1 Y; U) W$ j) V) [我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
5 m5 Y% q9 H8 ^6 W6 [1 W. y2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
) `# y- g0 f4 W! I而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。 ...

但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。
  Z. b+ w+ M: A  F
. b. J  A* a% k0 ?/ `6 I4 q现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
. f! s3 t' H, L4 f如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
; }( a4 a2 U: \/ e6 ~: d& j如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
4 X( L; L  M! _  T% SUSDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

4 p/ s" [: ^' N0 L2 N[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]