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发表于 2019-5-15 09:00
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Black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.
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! N' |7 b# F- _. VThe theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:# _3 I2 R, G5 ~/ h5 x
; R; m& H- w# L! @1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
1 ]- b2 A; l8 \2 T- m# i2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).+ R/ V- T/ ~7 y7 B$ U7 v
3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. |
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