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`$ a# S0 p( c* r Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com5 M# u: B! @' }& z6 C7 K$ [4 h
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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L5 ~$ I3 S& C7 c6 wPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
8 W4 P- o( h& I f- h+ G1 EBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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9 U2 _3 t. ~' e5 }They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 1 |( n* \$ N. }0 j% n: x( G+ U
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. $ _) a5 l# ~# o; N6 N+ z* r
* r E( e+ u) `/ g* EBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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! I, q4 C9 J3 G) C( a/ t0 F% e; w1 ^Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' 1 Q3 P8 A# [" ^$ G9 x9 Y% C
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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$ a( Z4 a ?4 e! S& pShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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/ l% q- ^ j% ?( @. M8 f8 x' r; R" C3 Z"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. # s3 ^3 m2 D, i# G w S
- H J+ r0 _- @& X+ h& U) H2 WCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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6 |. y1 {0 W$ T"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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( y6 e1 L# H$ r: ]2 U) ^ bStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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I6 g- E! K$ W1 H1 t7 a( m"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ; Z6 b: l0 X$ C- h) x7 U5 D+ w5 ~
0 ^* K+ Q5 ?& M! g& B"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. $ v4 z+ b+ e. q6 W" i* S# Y
- ]' @3 u/ B6 X0 `" j"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. : A4 M& A0 U! ?) i6 @* A Z
4 d, S: W% ^/ I2 v. lNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT & j; i# @ j: o0 x
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 2 ~" S/ D1 u& S& C
I7 o& [( i0 S4 K/ iExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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3 B N! T F! W; n7 s# hOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 1 p$ A# c( |' x+ e- B5 t" F. r
& g" }* d2 k' c: ?2 v9 k, L2 rHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 5 s8 x! r! z3 a( i
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. - q- r7 C" C; m2 F5 @9 B6 q0 A5 H* K
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 5 Q d! ~4 X+ [) p( V! a! D
7 C' }6 X |1 I* ]7 [, V0 p6 f) rYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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+ C; e- y# k, Y0 `. O6 M"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. / s4 h; {1 [; Q' p
5 V# n6 i6 a1 I+ t+ m9 {* R% dPrevious story: Bottom Line1 Q: P( S. h) g' D% y4 m
Next story: Building permits hit record
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