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4 k A8 p* g# W) P9 m. T Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com( U( N% X. I5 G9 H9 w
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007" ?- I1 X) F: j% a3 g, f
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN& m/ ~0 U" n7 G0 V* T2 z1 i
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& Z( a0 \" l. s" [They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 8 H) ^4 b6 R% O; u3 b& H
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ( {5 K; ` U/ A1 O" }$ |4 ]: R6 v# [
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. - Z: F ~" O, s1 G
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." $ \* c: g( Y1 l7 Q
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 1 Y1 J4 t- O8 X* G8 w9 |6 H5 K
, T4 o- z) h2 [( D* F. Z/ T/ U/ W"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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, S3 N1 \9 [& {9 v9 G& g"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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; W1 f$ q3 C& f" y- \Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 6 l3 \* }5 x8 n5 k% l0 P5 @
; s4 x- }& n, T" m9 S"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ' c/ L+ ?6 J% A# s2 O
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. : E% ]$ V2 d3 t8 N/ _' _+ K+ I
% S( i" i- D- @6 r"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 2 L, Z+ r- r+ A1 T' i0 P
2 k6 e& U+ V9 \NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." / x$ O' a+ P2 \7 ]# i! ^7 p( ]
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. $ L7 S. B5 A8 w( F
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 0 f/ y: }4 L8 l+ S
9 R3 Z6 o) B( Y"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. # B# @+ E) D1 T6 e
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ( D2 _& T: F2 ?# F/ \- G: ]
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. * M, o+ Q. h8 j- b) d
1 o% D$ A& h$ h: j; M5 P" TLet the good times roll.
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& O5 ]# m) d/ I1 z- J, p5 GPrevious story: Bottom Line
" I/ I+ z2 W1 _Next story: Building permits hit record
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