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% G/ i" j3 Q+ f( a. w1 v Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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) V: i$ y5 e' V, W' ?) O( |0 w In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.5 ^0 K! D8 s u
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5 E0 [4 w$ c, \4 s3 _Thu, January 11, 20074 [4 B8 {2 a4 ^5 @+ g# e
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
$ T1 P' ~) B/ ?! qBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN* i+ k' o2 Z4 e4 f4 J: A/ ~
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. , Q0 t6 Q3 Q A# F! L
' q, P I `4 ^% K) {$ w3 r3 dMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. * g! m/ |; g9 n* |2 s+ J0 T+ i7 [
' r# Y2 L$ C, {But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. & w3 k, z0 d2 J J
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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3 {- G# G9 o* b, G+ G6 I5 D% v'CONTINUED DEMAND' " u3 T; C" ]6 D& T7 ^; c
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( ?; M1 t- j2 \( [( H$ g: K"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." m; \7 _; q+ @+ `
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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! D( ?3 D' V$ p/ J2 |2 ZCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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1 b$ Q% B* B# a, oStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. . Q# X- D# x' D0 a' y- f- B
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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; ?& W) a; [$ Y"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. & k C5 Y$ N0 v
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 2 _9 u: O7 F. e. R
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." + p5 n# G6 {4 r% S
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. $ d9 g9 R% d! z/ n S% c1 @/ t
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. , l' u/ Q! M2 g; h0 K- R* o- w* u
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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$ ?0 O5 d! A! A+ T/ [7 g% ]5 ^, Q' [( K"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ( M: K6 ^7 Y. \% @9 |/ n- q
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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' s) j N9 L4 m4 c. RYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. 7 U% f0 x e4 E' \& F6 q/ l
A, j7 a6 b( I" ^3 o, N# sPrevious story: Bottom Line
% V8 k/ X2 n' W" s- r* C' nNext story: Building permits hit record& g! d2 P! ^$ k, G7 p9 A' w
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