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2 H; ^! a- Z/ }# ^: t. q6 Y" ^" c4 C Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com% o1 C- x: e! W8 ], `
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' P- X2 l: s' KThu, January 11, 2007; R% G( s6 u) k. [4 {
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
& a( Z! U( B1 A8 j- h/ ]By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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# W1 g. E1 M+ I3 h" a3 ?They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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6 G O& [ V0 P3 H6 v9 GMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. # v/ |* u0 B$ v2 |" |& V
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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, N4 ?# P+ I% a; j' {1 \Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ) _6 ]2 {. h" F/ b7 J* y; v8 K
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( t, |6 b- l. A( b- Y"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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1 s# J7 p, q. u! W0 h9 Y- S3 vShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. * u3 _# o) j$ P0 Z' X1 `" m( G
x/ n8 C) c) B0 v) i8 v( x. ?"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. , m; M( V- q, t; Y
! y/ X" G6 l, |/ [3 Z$ @! R- T6 U"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. - v2 G5 h& m% I8 y1 v: y
" ]5 W4 W) ~1 u1 T6 ]"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 0 c: S# W( [% ^: C7 X2 T
& E0 l5 }$ {2 v$ F"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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( c) n3 E: A& k1 h$ B"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT a$ }" m! V) r! R: _3 B& x* x
% |8 r% s1 h/ A3 V9 @He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." j( k- ~. Y+ Z; r
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 4 d/ D/ I# a, i) M
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ) B3 a& |7 D9 j; B6 s
) z1 j. P; S) ~2 T& a* J3 T3 z) hSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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- z3 H2 ]; W" K2 fYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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7 E* h2 z( R9 v9 `5 R, N; u"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. + p4 c7 P* r. d9 E# e' ^9 z7 t
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