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; ~7 s }% u6 j+ _2 c( X5 q Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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; ?2 P+ d% i& }+ n7 I. PThu, January 11, 20076 b: K* I6 A7 P7 f/ t
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
, z& H4 s. a. L% _. V+ zBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN8 C' Q5 Y* O- w0 ?: Z+ a
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. . h6 e1 K! C# l% [" I/ u
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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: p# J/ {) z+ V& }' k"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 9 f- w3 T8 _, @+ m3 J
* V3 S3 `4 J( NShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ' }6 _& f& J& U. k) K
/ q2 v4 y0 x; Z4 w5 T"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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" O u5 h$ e+ TCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. $ `- N3 H" t- r# V: ?* K! L9 p
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ( J2 r8 X9 {$ r2 m, e) n
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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8 n5 e* [3 |3 m7 k. X- iHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." * y5 d9 G7 d+ X4 X6 z7 A! d, [0 a7 t
. ]; _: y0 }% V2 x' zExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 3 x4 W3 H8 ~) X' ^% S
3 F+ g$ g7 x; Q, U. ROver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 4 z! f2 r h) o. p, a1 d
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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D+ n2 ?; A$ a2 ]- z3 ~"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 5 Q! T+ f/ H; Q5 i& ^# \
# {! r) N5 ~+ k/ B5 NSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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6 f8 ^# D5 U* @6 ]9 IYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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# |" J! W J2 z' S! U/ V8 M"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 6 C% U( y5 |9 F- \
& E& k+ |4 i4 j, n9 q$ E9 {Let the good times roll. ! J+ T) y( J* T0 _, K) e3 b5 r
& I; W j7 b; K0 b6 N4 ^3 yPrevious story: Bottom Line; z8 l: ~/ ]% C
Next story: Building permits hit record, H* w" E N) w; s* a$ ]
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