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: x2 a$ `% [8 \/ X) | Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com2 b3 S8 C! {+ {
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Thu, January 11, 2007! Z; o! y9 H: J0 l, n0 ^) f% y
# i1 ]7 {6 W& c& YPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20072 e, p; |% M0 `- h3 j/ \
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN: J* W. j E% M8 |9 J: ^
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 4 N+ y2 k: O0 I5 J0 X
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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4 j- Z+ R- m& K1 j"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 8 @4 L; Z4 L. g! m
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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) h: j' G7 Y6 K- F$ S4 ]. T9 ECanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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' P' w5 U7 B: W% `"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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7 t2 w/ ]: b; T3 w& r% W1 qStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. + R4 Q. v. w7 z) R, s
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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' Q5 I5 C! x& e0 |5 K"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ' a5 ?5 A! e+ V6 u8 C* u
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT : P) c; t; a5 H8 }% @/ j5 @: c$ Y) q
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. $ b( k8 v- u' S
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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0 x/ o6 ?) G. A* c6 m- V" W0 A"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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) X n% N: i6 r( pYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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. U( t! k7 J! Q$ t"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. , K% m5 I2 H+ x' }7 b2 e8 N
+ w& k; e0 R" z% J$ eLet the good times roll. 6 N# ]! D/ v n$ U5 L
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