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( L) O/ \: {6 `- _* A Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com/ i0 C4 h7 [7 \/ j3 O3 O
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% V; t `6 @+ C5 ~8 G# \2 AThu, January 11, 2007$ G( u, J2 @3 i& g( g% F/ ^6 I
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007 t, Q! Z5 a( j6 L* R: y
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 5 z. q3 w* \0 A$ } H# O6 l* Z# r4 z
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. # s2 n0 F: h3 {8 k
+ g0 j3 F9 B0 n6 W* Z'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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. r$ ]& o; h7 _2 T"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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9 k( y5 I. N+ vShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. $ U$ A$ U6 ~6 K- B. \7 e
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." # s- u6 ^' L2 U* ]2 q J
: j/ m5 L N2 }/ h* ~Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. * t2 r9 B$ ]. H; g, h) Q$ \
0 w* O: S2 F$ f"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. - `) M9 [5 Y8 Z
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT % v. [) P, ?6 O- G
% s2 W% ?6 C- l; D7 JHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. ( X3 E; c, m2 g% n! w
' H% h0 R0 H$ v" o' FOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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" {: J2 o% C& b$ p9 s8 hHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. / F: O9 N7 Y% _9 I+ Z: J+ {
9 T, B; M4 g& Z5 s$ ^"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ' T) E2 m# `9 I3 T
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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0 v* Y* g7 ^" q w" @) d' ]+ Z- s( sYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ( ~5 `& _5 L- I8 n
& @2 [) ?/ D7 b4 `+ P"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. - ~& s. o! |% O I) e9 Q/ n/ F
/ Q8 H9 q& A- g T XLet the good times roll. 7 d& m! w# V9 F2 @/ @1 E3 T
* Q7 h4 d7 T& I5 Q" mPrevious story: Bottom Line5 A* i2 `0 Q( P9 a) B
Next story: Building permits hit record9 ]1 T- G' d; r1 P1 r
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