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) _2 c! ^, v5 N# X) |; N Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com0 t8 X+ I2 W! w
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Thu, January 11, 2007; o' K! U6 ]. A: V# F- o
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
! N6 C$ a; C! r% \+ G o: _By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 8 P; j. p |+ @/ H- ]
1 G' O8 g; [. t3 c5 x8 l6 ^. ^" gMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 0 a7 r$ B+ J/ q
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' 9 k/ J. V; g! O+ w, L c" _2 z
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* u3 Y1 i( }+ E% q5 F+ Z. O"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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$ `5 S, P# M ~. u2 ^She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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( M. F! H5 @* q& D, K0 \"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 2 _! v% v! E! L/ D8 V
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 9 {" K; R% k- F' h
+ x4 Z" `5 a: E; ?: q9 XStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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7 H7 p! E" y9 Y0 `* `; _"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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8 j. z2 @+ B/ T% |8 j' L' E# d"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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8 ~1 O5 |% K7 y* O* f"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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1 ?) D) u. m( ]8 K! q2 ]* VHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 1 c! h2 [2 R& u2 E
: o: U5 Q# Q1 jExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. # ]$ f& }' h% v8 u" j
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 8 R8 f6 }) L* H) E# y$ c) \6 H
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 9 H, @* T- _$ _' _* I( G
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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$ ?0 t8 B: `7 \6 v, |4 Z9 eSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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3 F* u' |0 |+ k, s- o( D4 K"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ' W4 G, G& o0 v: v: J
/ [+ X9 H' N" E6 m+ wLet the good times roll.
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