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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very9 B( p# ~5 o& [$ g$ [
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it- a2 ]) {! z/ T
will be going.
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It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.* j! ]7 m% w+ j& Y
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The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by; r8 b) N2 l; K$ S. L
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an# ~7 ^9 R8 L1 e8 D7 e
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
8 ~& o! B2 D- K$ eWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property$ R! \) c( p; c$ m
values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
0 x5 |) J9 }% _- H1 J7 Ghow much.0 |) }$ |2 o3 @# X) C8 R* u4 h
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
7 V2 r9 x1 l" z; S: F, HOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
+ h. E6 _7 t# L; H# rstrong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
  W: U& \9 j- A3 \0 t; {# t6 d( afindings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -" {6 i( I8 ?" ^$ k1 R; S6 h% C
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
, i! Q4 [; V' u+ Ymarkets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact
: l! z/ M7 q/ G1 c) ?2 c! non average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
+ L* D! Z  o0 y. b. }  u: ~market continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into1 X, c' O; f6 B1 v8 n
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we1 Y! G6 y$ v, z1 m: H  I' U4 ~
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
- h% R. w7 A! F) q: cThis is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
' Z" R% X9 b$ {' p0 }increases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six( Z" e* ~, O. S! v4 i$ F8 ?. z
months.  
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
' p3 B# l2 a- t; h7 qcaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying1 i; s/ Q4 \& O. m+ T: u8 T5 w
fundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that+ c8 O6 v& D! \, Q2 ?; k
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
( I& q. G) b) @& c- s9 ountil it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all# a+ o7 F5 @" h% D( G% D
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.5 i/ G8 g3 y4 u# O
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
/ \( t  f5 p; U1 J# G2005 to June 2006), also great news.5 |$ h/ O3 K0 f3 g, `
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
- E) Z. W, s3 r5 e) m8 r$ A. c3 U+ f2006 New Housing Price Index for:
5 ~" y7 m+ Z0 r: U% w- q6 _! \- `7 p4 C+ F: s
Vancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%
, }0 r5 v. q+ ?- L0 e! c2 C% wSaskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%* c4 X  N6 j* Y9 b. s* z
London . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%) l8 J* }5 c  }; n: k6 H
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%  I6 Z" k# a- n& q
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
, Y3 G# P7 J8 U# l1 X0 jToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2  s/ Q: q1 D! _& h9 `; [# w# j
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%
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5 J- a$ m& M: ^* |3 Q( v# OFundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
1 p& O, A) H. c7 wgives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!
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0 u% d/ o8 u! d/ m2 X  `As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to# g) c5 n8 [& u* S
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not# o* o) H# j3 |6 A$ ?$ p$ @( X0 z
only across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are- ~7 f, v" p& D
increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to; S; z8 D1 i- t
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.6 J# i% s9 [4 n) [: w& ~
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Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
$ t7 Z% U: B0 G  [( Yfundamentals:
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in- s- x, r8 c# e
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth
$ B+ |- v' }% }1 C" K! a) Yfor Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
: W) {( K" Y1 \! z- Ythis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the9 ^" D/ ?: ~. w$ E  l% m; f
world.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,8 U. Y+ I$ B5 J# b$ j" p. S
the US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
: c4 D! S' u* }  Zthat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. % M/ E% Z; A4 I  D! b

0 I2 O  h3 r8 n6 M' g  B* Y3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment8 g& }  r7 N  R* H
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in7 Z8 w& K0 w% J
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after' B2 j$ P+ g5 N
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
7 g* H* Y' E- x8 _1 i- ?anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
7 ^: g( b& V; sproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the' {& Y. N) G4 Y1 R
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
. k: R% j) C1 Y* e% p/ N& j0 wbeat it for long term investment.  {. P* K3 w, J2 k; }" `

7 \4 H7 |* Q/ @) N8 M4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely. [/ h& O+ u+ U2 D" c1 l
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job
9 Y8 a% P$ t' i* E& d, b5 D7 Jcreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
9 ?0 i& H) F: T8 Z2 E"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since! `, H% Z7 l7 [
January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
8 @) m/ t. n2 ?( d0 c6 w( K8 O1 Q' ]7 _. b3 }6 X6 H3 b( ]% E
Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
4 P' H+ k' W$ |* x+ jfirst half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the8 Y  F: W6 E+ x2 ?# g1 p8 j
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of( N" X, L! ?- `9 K/ X2 \) |  S
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not7 M0 }$ x! f: z
repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with+ ]. j9 r& i  ?. l  v, D) y  P4 H, ^
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at$ ~! x' q+ ?9 M
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate6 C  {3 H$ v: w1 d; Z- _5 [
of 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in3 M7 j: _. J4 v2 ^" O4 O1 Z
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.0 t' [! T3 L3 _" T1 D8 r$ D( M

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2 }3 |# B( E5 ~" M( g; j1 z/ \/ k. M8 cIn other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
: ?* R& L9 r5 n9 }( n3 S. Qeconomy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
5 \# n/ M8 f5 m% Z'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
% M! i7 i8 Y0 q: k7 eyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the6 N( y) D6 Q! h/ Z" `$ L
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the1 k( z: W# r: w5 P' G3 N
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared( m8 W' L5 E: R2 i2 b9 l: V
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations." K$ B+ d  @: n2 Z: Q4 F: e

- Y. N( c2 U; F9 `% {
, C$ }- n& y) ^2 W' o6 D; J  ^2 tCapital Gains Comparison.  {/ b: V, Y" M5 M9 M
% R7 `9 W, U8 q" J5 j/ R; \7 ~  Q
KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial  M! \/ {) Z% t) K6 G7 L: s
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see  Z& {7 V# y5 Y2 V) R
how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:! U1 ]& }( O7 R# _

' Z/ B+ B* b- u+ E8 U# E. sBC . . . . . . . .  21.9%- q) L0 }9 U" v/ K5 @, U
AB . . . . . . . .  19.5%
+ e8 S# N2 @- _* ^$ sSK . . . . . . . .  22.0%
% ^) Q: v: X" ~: P& o5 ^$ Y2 ^MB . . . . . . . .  23.2%
; f0 y! \& ~; P) P) `9 L  JON . . . . . . . .  23.2%
& q1 q+ }" d; j2 e6 O' ?$ pQC . . . . . . . .  24.1%0 n: r* k& l- C: q
NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%
2 e5 a9 b/ O6 C% a2 DNS . . . . . . . .  24.1%
) _9 |% C1 Y9 F2 @$ g! V+ lPE . . . . . . . .  23.7%" e! ?0 v* m' q0 S7 t# b9 I8 {
NF . . . . . . . .  24.3%
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Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term# Q; \; [* s4 Y. n  Z5 _% A
economy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of% D* k+ x  ?  }+ A8 ]; c
their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.
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Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
3 p, }* O% d5 l: D, S! k0 Iopportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of
9 p, U& P, f6 U# x5 kcourse, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'+ N5 h7 Y* Y. M4 V
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion
+ ^: f" _- p- B2 }3 e5 D6 _5 Owhen you take action as a full REIN Member.- f5 s- B6 Q9 E4 g. z4 R5 K

& a% ]! O3 f9 z2 S: E# M! @Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the. c) O% X0 S% Q$ l
results in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表& s' `  R3 X+ m+ x6 O
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...1 f6 }4 v. r: |$ d; h  f4 C5 V7 M

! k4 D. E* ^( _0 I6 W0 q
* W- Z9 A: h6 ^& eThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very4 ?3 [: y2 L( h. t8 ^
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
# f* O, p6 x7 I5 Q# o  h4 B0 Q) zwill be  ...
, [2 r; p# l$ i1 H
4 E- U/ |/ }/ M* \1 r( m: m! U
谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good.
  Q0 S! Y" ]* I+ y
* O4 `' v( k/ u6 g- _  ehttp://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49
* U5 K5 N1 p0 W+ D+ a7 y% j9 w3 i$ l  J: }7 ^2 Z3 K2 c% ^
You can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.
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http://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
鲜花(86) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。
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& u% _" c- c* D: }( r8 i) H***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****
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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表; u5 b: S' T8 i& n! M/ C6 R/ n
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...9 H+ G, U, ~0 n% s8 G2 H7 h

5 Q" B! C8 F9 [  c4 Q/ u- w/ k; ^. U/ e4 v9 ~6 f# K; S
With close to 3,000 net new people into
! b4 s+ m! r+ s$ Z* ^8 ]the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
  l  ]3 z/ D) Bsaw the New Housing Price Index ...

; M' }; k& v) d8 h[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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