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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very- j$ {! J" E' E9 ~& V' F5 _
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
1 V) R3 E$ s1 t% X, s5 Wwill be going.
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It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
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The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by/ Z; X4 Z. H0 m) W' w
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
2 O+ `6 X) C4 ]1 f/ Mindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. 4 [7 O6 \- e; v' w- s$ M0 A
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property! o: {& `$ N2 a- a( A; h$ r" P
values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
& O, Z, @6 b. i5 Mhow much.
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
' N5 a8 [# h/ ]& xOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
$ s  z2 h* x8 T, J( U( Vstrong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest8 K4 c: N+ o" R3 ^3 |% q: V  J, x
findings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
$ E  B) o* ?! K$ R2 B8 P9 bJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
0 h; H6 q3 Z6 s0 c7 C" cmarkets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact! }5 m0 ~8 I( s3 U: q& J$ f
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.$ L& p  y- k( F) Z  x: s8 w
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To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the/ y' x/ K  `* g2 x0 G  k) }! o
market continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into+ i* s6 F' ]% I- t+ U5 }3 ~! Y' p
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
9 f2 E5 V% y9 V3 N/ {saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). % x/ Z4 Q: V0 V$ C0 p5 L
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these" z9 G1 R) P# V3 Z$ d
increases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
/ ]4 Z" f, o5 V! a) }# Ymonths.  8 |' J# {3 ^1 ~2 W6 T

" d6 H# ^6 e  |: X/ LComparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
  Z2 Y+ m, E/ w1 hcaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
  {) R& |; O% F7 s% l) ^fundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
4 o0 F, e7 z8 kthe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
/ I" H; A7 b1 n1 q$ {, Suntil it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all: _' z8 O" ~$ _; h& f5 ]
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June  T$ K" L1 Q: p3 W" E1 h
2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June; Y% q2 ~5 J2 y1 v
2006 New Housing Price Index for:9 S  I* W2 l4 O. x/ W7 `, R
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Vancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%
7 {2 X2 X# d* q) d. i+ h  uSaskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%
! l! b" a$ A: m/ FLondon . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%, V- O( W% W3 P9 V/ J' ?
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%
* ~3 o5 m! R9 GSt. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%7 ?  q) C- P  B2 G3 K- N
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2- I! v  R4 Z- X) M2 r  W' g% B) n
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%
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/ L. X, S8 Z4 B# X; w; f% nFundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing5 Z: f* T+ v2 x" q
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!. _, L# o2 a) S, x2 d7 j
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to: T( g; L/ ~" F* \
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not, g8 j/ V8 n: L2 f# F" A
only across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
! m6 D" y4 p: F" n0 X) ~2 M' Mincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
( Z$ i6 x) d5 d/ d) B8 adrop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.; a7 [5 \) U6 ]- l# o, s9 I

5 L; S7 e" z( D  DHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
4 K# o, @; m& w( i6 [fundamentals:" ?+ U: ~* R; P. x# j# s$ E
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
& Y4 N1 h6 _# y( j. o# @Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth/ f/ C$ X, J- J0 g
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and8 I1 ]0 N( Y1 @0 q1 d. s
this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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: _4 H' N( U  J- ]2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
: }, v  q! H2 R: _* W3 Aworld.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,1 X! o; j9 c3 w% l7 b, B$ [& W6 v/ J" J
the US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
( }* ^8 X: a6 e) Qthat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. 7 [4 u9 ~) Z1 y: I7 W) y0 |
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3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment( W; J2 R7 O1 ]3 D4 w4 o! f
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
$ B/ S, p: E, g* C. P! T) RDublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after
* X- V" ?3 U$ l( {, [2 fDon presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
- Q2 Q4 N* B( Q) k7 Ganywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
7 v# Z# w- e8 a5 n4 yproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
& {6 F$ v) _' t) mpolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can' {  E) p" g, ^4 \' _4 b
beat it for long term investment.
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; k4 X) l  E' d' e" W4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
7 Q4 I' ]( U& C" _# Ja sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job2 |7 ]+ k! V* V& \1 p; s
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)+ o4 x* U  d" m( o
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
- k2 t0 K7 v0 dJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
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7 y4 q/ W6 U- b( H! z- f! b3 mStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
  |2 E) N' t! J7 c; Y- H  |  mfirst half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the5 p1 X6 r% Z5 \1 G
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
6 M7 i4 F* R4 U. `' q! Ethe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not% T' s% W. Z. v7 p
repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
+ A4 \0 a$ y# `: Q$ k- zits recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at/ q7 y/ }) H* a) `1 }3 _
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
7 d4 b! @3 p! @1 A7 Bof 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in( t5 W0 y; \2 b0 w8 M
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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4 }6 U3 ^: [8 ?In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong  _1 z: @  a3 K
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
& |* ~1 v) V( w7 G'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
, [. Q, x7 A9 l7 B9 Iyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the  d) Q2 w- ^  e# r7 ?
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the/ u$ j/ F% u! r9 |4 X
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared# c4 e3 A3 \  I: s% a" j" {! {) K" }
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.2 T, Q9 _7 \6 O- Q4 v  p- V
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Capital Gains Comparison.7 C; L& x- j" b/ g: \3 f- c: w. v
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
4 Q# Z  J- `4 d1 k+ wMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see+ I8 K/ \& `8 f; {: z/ O9 R
how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:; S1 w! y4 n# w
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BC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
! r. H% I7 e6 K+ W* LAB . . . . . . . .  19.5%3 d) \( K9 E' T2 w
SK . . . . . . . .  22.0%2 K2 F# P/ n5 k: E) l7 r( ^
MB . . . . . . . .  23.2%
% Y' e" o3 x8 S$ b! iON . . . . . . . .  23.2%
, S9 a2 m7 a5 d9 @QC . . . . . . . .  24.1%
$ ~  O1 s* ~) x, p! l. ONB . . . . . . . .  23.4%
& j& o2 q5 F3 p0 Z% j9 ~7 @/ \5 zNS . . . . . . . .  24.1%. b( R( V' e, s* Z. U1 ~" L: m
PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%
" m" }5 G" Z& P2 a3 w& qNF . . . . . . . .  24.3%& e' ^" f7 a" l  \; C0 m4 l
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Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term2 Q, K- y; R. _! M% H
economy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of+ _8 h. o. K" u3 Q& A# R# E
their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.
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# i9 n. m/ G3 \- ^( n( b% E5 k, zOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the! g9 M3 L4 S8 w6 P8 z$ q! ]
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of+ }) F0 {# C9 L0 ], b# Q( m
course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
) S7 t0 _6 P6 c3 }, L# d1 sevents like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion) R3 r0 C: }% e. A0 l: I2 F4 z
when you take action as a full REIN Member.
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Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the# N/ ~3 k; [" v9 `- o& E1 i+ F* h6 p
results in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表; l8 g1 Z2 X8 i+ |
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...6 }/ {2 c7 W7 W! p, d

/ b; U' w7 j" g7 A
3 ~7 o4 j9 x) M/ q9 d7 O* dThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very% V- _3 L+ R% D0 a* g
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
) \6 C& l( g9 |% [9 iwill be  ...
+ A8 O5 o* c1 J% Y# J+ y

; u: d: G- P/ G( t: t4 `; M% j谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good.
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http://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49/ n/ G9 }" l+ {8 z1 |# s

3 U) O( W  N, Z2 ?( `You can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.
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http://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
鲜花(86) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。
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***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****
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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表* H$ r3 O& t+ M& X2 C0 c/ p# c4 p( _
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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& h1 S: |* {  ^- d: f8 v
With close to 3,000 net new people into4 Z7 s. T/ O# e, b5 s' K
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
0 p: K/ x3 |3 g! k7 ^& e2 Q5 Csaw the New Housing Price Index ...
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[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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