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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
0 m/ j( _( C/ ?1 c8 [interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
2 v5 j" i0 V6 N( J& U2 owill be going.
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It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.0 J$ ?$ `/ h) E: _% r( \
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The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
2 }- y! z4 [+ csophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an3 t5 F; v5 M- K- n* M( q7 D
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. 8 j9 y) c; {+ c; A
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
7 E% {% e# w' wvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
1 E4 ~7 ~7 h" l  e) I# O: nhow much.$ S& S) H: [! ^9 x9 O! X
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,# y) T6 }3 G- X+ i
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
6 `& n- P& c( _; z- Hstrong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest$ Q9 c5 O" t8 a4 g' E) j7 X. J
findings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
- D: L& _, [' n* U7 w: w2 HJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
, M7 R& K4 C8 Q! y( s8 P- Qmarkets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact. I. h! V! t7 j
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.+ |5 A5 D! G9 Z8 k1 _) G

3 b0 B* i. B( F( B/ B1 [) Y) `# A- [To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
0 w( w/ r  v7 o* d9 g' [9 zmarket continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into
, f& x. C7 w3 ~& M+ \9 Zthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
  V) n, ~9 b- Ssaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). + g9 v0 B8 d& v. v# h( f, P
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
3 I" i2 _( w- K4 L4 T2 Hincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six' p2 y6 h' i4 k- V# ^% G& g' D+ V
months.  
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% o* W0 ^! I7 C9 \; uComparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
0 s6 Z- |$ v& r; l" t; L  ecaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
( V2 \; ?0 n$ c5 y0 K# N% n6 Bfundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
8 s; p2 O! ?# z+ _  c+ Lthe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait7 G, D' s1 N' K6 |  Z" R
until it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all( R. |! X- V$ N. M2 Q
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.6 J5 ^4 y* X1 X7 g1 U; L" p

1 Q- r$ ]: K) x) f( i1 qBy the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
. e2 [1 [" b7 p% o" l" f2005 to June 2006), also great news./ C. O: B! _! y3 U5 \" H3 W
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
9 S; j1 W# ?& B3 e) B) I2006 New Housing Price Index for:$ [# m4 x5 V1 Z% {2 u$ c' T- [/ d

/ S4 H( g% V3 u0 S/ u. y. c1 fVancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%
8 i, y( d/ @; O* f8 P3 ?/ hSaskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%
: ~2 K! e# C0 t, U& D% R2 z6 ALondon . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%
% ], p* G2 A- E7 ~( @! QHamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%
" Q% A$ _: W% U- ~1 }St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%' E, @/ `' w4 p( {5 ~& Y
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2( P) O& w7 p8 G* @% K) G
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%
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Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing) h& M) j2 O$ {  W1 l* R
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to6 I5 i6 E8 }/ Q( S* F* U  ]
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
8 G$ h' z8 f: U% N6 honly across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
  e# \& k! }$ [2 vincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
! s2 H! C, [, E$ M" ]7 z- {drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.: i4 k5 d5 n+ S( M+ x
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Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
/ T2 l, L( D! d5 e* G* Y2 Nfundamentals:# A! C( g' f$ M* y" X' W6 T1 [
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
% q& a% `% c* o6 u) z4 M6 C" dCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth
8 c2 l4 O# E/ u' _+ a1 T% Mfor Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
/ z" {5 [7 N, _2 q! x" E+ u! Othis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.. d4 W2 Y, l, X8 S9 z9 ^+ h; d# r
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2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the" T5 t) J+ c# n; Q0 W- B8 W- X
world.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
4 H$ P( [# C3 w. B# B2 Gthe US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see1 I! I  |, n$ z: I
that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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4 I/ P, B! r/ s2 \; ~  w3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment; z. m9 t5 I9 w+ J2 ^
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in) [. b2 Y7 v4 e  z$ C2 B
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after
5 R% O+ a' H3 T/ ?Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest. x$ G4 }5 y* ^, t) }) w
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
; z- @, j4 C: b7 \- Mproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the5 y$ B/ h/ f5 L( B
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
6 _" {( C5 a0 Y# N+ T- E; `4 Abeat it for long term investment.
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4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
6 T3 g5 @5 u; T% o9 }a sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job
% x9 l6 w; {/ A" x1 W7 \creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics), m* o' c" }9 [8 w5 @2 h
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
( x" t  J5 B# P; l' v7 p  YJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
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/ m$ Q, c" |  k. i' AStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
* H" f& P* v" B6 i0 ~, T9 Nfirst half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the* _7 N' W; D% w6 u% d  C* G: R
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of2 \& D8 k! ^$ q2 f* |+ d
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not6 B% \/ i" g+ e. R
repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with2 t' u1 ~# i  X5 s- ^3 g  S) m1 Q; H
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
1 W- B5 ~0 \. T6 m8 Iits trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
6 f1 J6 H1 v3 }0 V  U7 Oof 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in1 N9 D* k5 g% {2 r- v# c
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.2 V6 a8 Q' f6 G$ [
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& e9 l9 M6 M+ O# V6 V6 w$ d7 y0 e7 jIn other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
* M- u" S" r8 \' D1 @2 ceconomy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed+ [& \/ D! I7 g/ d4 N$ C. W* n
'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do8 N5 C. f$ {5 n/ U5 a, Q7 ?
your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the- n% E2 L* H" Z- g
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the  B+ P3 S) H) m
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
9 S# @) M  P6 W9 m8 Pand your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
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' r8 X0 Q0 {+ D# H2 }1 YCapital Gains Comparison.
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial0 d9 F6 l  c8 z( c
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see
$ U! l1 [. e" P, Phow these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:
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1 U( `! [1 b# b8 R; B. z' }BC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
" h8 g+ P- m0 X9 `* v7 l$ DAB . . . . . . . .  19.5%
6 A6 S# M- w6 ?4 z. kSK . . . . . . . .  22.0%0 [5 ]7 Y' k9 N! {7 _" P, V9 k
MB . . . . . . . .  23.2%
# e  b% P9 ^7 S& OON . . . . . . . .  23.2%
. V% j; ]1 O- a* ZQC . . . . . . . .  24.1%
/ b( D! o# [" |8 y5 S* YNB . . . . . . . .  23.4%  E9 [& ?! J" h8 q3 s) d0 b: s
NS . . . . . . . .  24.1%
' T- z! ?9 G' M/ A/ {1 ZPE . . . . . . . .  23.7%2 e5 c% S  J, y" \+ p. d
NF . . . . . . . .  24.3%
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6 O) {1 ]9 T) h4 k+ fLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
: K, P7 R0 s' @9 U4 d8 Heconomy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of4 W' O7 P( |/ u
their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to., m  t4 E& _$ ^
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. d. I2 Z( I4 {+ n" `Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the/ k; h8 t- \% @; d$ C
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of' ^+ E: S$ {& r7 R% o* I3 R7 B
course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
9 i% b6 ~8 B* `& w; ]& I) ^events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion& B- |9 |) V+ O% S1 Q
when you take action as a full REIN Member.
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Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the' p+ O8 t) ~, g! P. q
results in just a few short years.
鲜花(1) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表2 {5 g- c7 ?! r3 Z" q$ V$ v
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX..." P/ G5 H& `# x2 M. s

4 ~2 O* Q( V, ^* _% I3 E4 |9 h% u5 h, S
The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
8 p1 |3 P1 T8 f* `# I" x9 Einteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it, I4 D" O7 Q5 a
will be  ...
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谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good.
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' x6 m& g9 j3 Q# Z8 a9 vhttp://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49
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6 Z# f" ]) X2 J' K" R4 \* q  L4 nYou can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.
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http://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
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发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。4 g7 f4 ]4 D. K; V
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***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****! ]# k  r7 c3 i+ W" p  z

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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
! K& X" x$ z' ^# w" `1 h6 GNEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX.... N% o* [; \$ i$ {$ x- \9 T9 l
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With close to 3,000 net new people into9 U0 H' p; A  x  j3 v9 o
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we' M5 e# I% d3 u9 G4 ^! K& q' n
saw the New Housing Price Index ...

6 `& V  v1 x6 i2 q5 y( R4 s[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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