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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 E. ~$ p+ t D5 J2 ]5 F w
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the" l! R6 `+ u7 p5 a3 w7 @4 b
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. r( G/ o- l$ x6 T+ ^6 {
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,/ E9 C' @/ P( j) ^0 g. G" X
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 D, i9 x" S H( m$ j1 @* y5 ~
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
2 }: D/ F, ^/ N8 ysaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 R* e, N, r: a! V) I; dimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability4 Q- Z7 K* O% ~% {7 z1 j
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
9 ]8 R2 }( Q+ o: \( n# t( M RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is ]1 W0 X; h% Y
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
- d! Z$ i6 z% [; i* s; K$ Hwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
' a: u; y# {# c+ Y; V* g8 asustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.! Y4 w( W/ z: }6 N
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the M* ?, _7 V- X/ ]% }: G( Q
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
0 e, I1 b% _, o" N8 ^home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 D& x6 ~% F* b. `+ l' g& nAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the% e. O: Y8 w& }& ?5 x1 o `# S
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
) i# T" r. c9 D/ _& Z0 u) m- Qthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.$ Y$ c/ V7 r. S9 w- Z$ B" G
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
. v' d( H4 |2 U' b" b4 c6 B7 Nmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
0 V1 G+ Y$ V' \9 k& v- Y/ t5 \5 Y6 gthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at; M1 J) d8 D+ t' x3 C" G' Q
historically depressed levels.
, }- I9 I: H) O5 M6 x, e Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
7 S z$ v% E6 R( r' Z$ Uof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& |, C+ L* k6 Z/ q3 {
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
* k L" ^8 X' L- Y) Q. @hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
( R0 h( `% N! `enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the3 K1 v. s4 f. @( L8 g
months ahead," added Hogue.- y: k% r- C; d
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest7 I; g4 J5 U/ k4 W! F
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
! b3 \: E5 V3 `+ V: M9 f42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
/ s. p+ I. E( c$ s$ @ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* }' Z% D5 y* ]& h, D9 R
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
; R1 E0 M0 O( h# C+ T8 Rcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
9 w+ J0 @2 B R; Q6 y' I- c: S/ ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.- A. k7 Q9 `! |% F/ ?. ^' j9 L
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is) B4 k, G" E1 w! G9 |5 K; }
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property, E% x. {# c: e6 A( L( p
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented2 a5 S7 n' \. T l& D* R; `
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
( Z- D. D* A2 H1 {" Z8 ycondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
8 K" T* L; S+ ]; ~! o+ _) J; e! cFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership1 ^) ^ i, _( Q$ w* L$ l
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, v- R! O! R; N4 a6 e7 j. \7 H# p4 D
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.- @% f$ v0 A" k; {5 v! w$ w
; ?! n' N# H& A6 }2 H4 ~! D <<- d, V4 U- J9 ]: o8 w
Highlights from across Canada:6 P2 r% B0 g8 |7 S
# A; J X" x% E6 [9 z! m1 ~
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
! r9 j4 g Q6 i7 ?+ |9 ^3 x intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
' Y _, _" N. q& o* M" @4 D- h home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound/ Y; q% `! q# H* f
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
; J; b' m8 ]2 |0 D) s since about the middle of 2007.
_4 v2 @( P8 p# E: G( T - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
0 W3 j8 }$ k. s: ^+ o, K, `, T frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to0 i9 V6 B7 r2 _/ a# Z2 F
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
6 G8 {7 z2 Q' V: I largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
0 c; d$ S1 @, Z7 b: U; t5 ^ poor affordability levels.: J, r/ H O7 o2 C, W
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the2 V& x% x/ o( {, {' n! I# R( D
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
2 e$ u6 V* w: q& S prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
2 ^. H! J/ \& |2 r7 ?- O Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
/ Y1 R5 D9 F% z `8 g minimize any downside risks.
( u2 S# n5 N7 Z+ `! G. z$ a - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market/ K: y1 {7 }" `/ y3 n; ~! L
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is) N B J4 t( v. G2 q
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early" |5 m& h$ q$ {4 i$ D
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
; O" u5 P/ y+ z5 Y0 A5 S being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
4 o( Z0 `. w' o( ]* v6 Y - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
; ?' Z! `9 x/ @6 ? Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
& W, Z2 ]) p8 t1 o3 M( r far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up4 c) L: {0 N) r( v& _% l* {1 j
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be3 x- `8 F. F$ o
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only, B" g' T+ T1 P7 H1 p
modestly in recent years.' j, ~, x ?& k2 |1 U8 w* W
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ G6 z( j& D4 l& L& o general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot7 m4 f( j- c U
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward: a: G% Z: e* a5 u, @9 B
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability+ U* }- L5 g# g! I
following two years of deterioration. @. d1 N/ b5 F& K; M4 s
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