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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
4 A. {& T# l: k TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the q6 S7 R* E1 C8 o u3 N: j. V
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive. |1 m! c: ]' K+ `( y: z
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,4 h( D( K3 G6 k* t( e9 V7 H
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics." H/ d6 y" f- Q5 v! _
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", r3 e7 H9 T( |& q
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is: W2 g; j0 a* Z' r# y
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
8 S! I& k5 n6 z3 I0 E! kmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
$ o0 w- K9 a; Y" S RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
; F- p8 r8 ~) ?4 ]worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,4 Q( }# O5 R. d* n& M6 o0 A7 Q4 ?
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have! g' h' R9 [ x( V
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
/ b G1 x' z4 P; g: N The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the% Y a {" k; L& A
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a2 z3 k' h" Y" {4 N
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
; @& ?- r' H$ C. W1 e/ ~" \8 CAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the6 ]# J& W& r- \4 R" Q7 B9 O3 q6 I
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and3 T) l( M% ` e( y
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.3 {7 I j. u$ y/ U5 n) e/ n) h
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ }3 X# r; e& M. s& D- cmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in9 S) ]# s, j; U r$ `! @1 O( P
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at) @: Y. z! K3 o: [
historically depressed levels.. C3 R8 [" i; J+ j' ^0 l" c
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
7 r1 {8 U! m' cof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
7 q% Z( t9 B0 n0 C) @4 |# U. Eprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the8 q6 v r$ b9 F2 R9 b; i
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This, J4 X o6 R& h# X' [: P3 ]& ]
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; ?' v3 K2 V7 Q. T5 z0 Hmonths ahead," added Hogue.
+ W% K9 ?3 q" H+ E$ S8 Z" ?( T RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
2 _0 j0 l7 ^; h( F4 ecities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary9 B! u1 Y6 ^% D" |1 {
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
) [ Q# L, U! H) { The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for% r$ b" c+ P- j( z
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
' A$ N- `- t7 y* t C$ d, tcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
% \- ^& s- d" O/ Y: stakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& R% y& Z- f8 ^% b9 y: L: s! k h
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is3 R& h/ k* E4 d* e x b
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
* D, E# e2 d9 P( `" z$ mbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ f h- }- j) }' i5 k0 |1 n
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard) h a2 y7 B4 |7 j4 r$ J' q3 @* u
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 r8 p- \# ^7 u& h+ K: Z+ O2 F* ]For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
9 z$ c3 B% i* g# B5 bcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
* J* f2 z+ u, c8 U: cper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income." t" Y5 I5 a# I9 i! @
( `! ~, I( l/ E8 K <<5 _6 z) p0 ?$ ?! e! q4 \
Highlights from across Canada:) T: k: u, ^5 R% u/ X/ R
+ D. p Z) Y1 S) ` - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has1 g- P, X1 l' b# H, q! Q! E
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
3 @ U; _, [9 J* V; |9 p& g! S home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* ~2 t% [ ?" b. l8 m* u only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
% Q h9 F J/ o4 n" K0 L7 V' s" @ since about the middle of 2007.+ _$ z5 i$ v4 U6 [8 Z1 |5 k
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the( `3 W2 \: w) H5 H9 t" _
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
1 I" B# B5 N7 Z3 D7 S% {5 @ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still5 D) ]. Y$ }2 q0 p
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
5 o# g# A: u/ D' K V- e4 m' F% M poor affordability levels.& I9 a3 Q8 _; H C7 s* ~1 D, Q
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the: W5 u0 N$ y2 s a) O, k/ r
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and2 |, n; C; K8 `) e5 B0 o7 f2 l3 l* W- k
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.7 y. ~: `" y2 C- Z* F
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
% r: h9 a" c4 R8 k9 A2 v' V3 V minimize any downside risks.( O# @3 [3 X' S: Y/ e
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market$ `7 y4 r' v4 h
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
N% S6 O* T0 B. [, b unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
' h' {# H, [# \/ e7 @/ B' _ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' F _- H1 ~+ y/ D& k: v: t4 Z0 l
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.3 ~4 X3 l# T) j% `& ^
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in4 k7 [ ^% V: |( L% o* ~
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
# Y5 ?9 v* L: I; T2 b far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
o1 o6 Q5 `3 F9 x o: B reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be+ g7 Y4 Y% Z1 i. O- C
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
3 B$ V7 m7 E* d5 s9 } modestly in recent years.
) ?0 p! z. Y2 B% B* j - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
: E' \" i9 M5 G# s general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot/ |5 J6 h( q) h. n& s2 c7 F+ Y
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward) O, u1 {2 W# u
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
" {. g% {) V6 F following two years of deterioration.
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