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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC ! B8 | K* V" a9 L9 C9 T
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
& v+ H$ y' ?0 g9 [8 ~ b3 bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
2 }3 |5 O5 T7 M1 \+ d7 i$ [% ^& fgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,$ y4 d! H. g4 \% r5 C
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
: |) K; R4 }; }6 R: Z! l "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 ]' l/ @7 Z) ]5 m! F) Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
% Z8 y7 _% w% c8 L6 z: Y# u/ ximproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
' I' U. ~( K( ^4 Kmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ I! p! {4 L D) R( ` RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 e6 f/ Z! d7 D! p) h3 B
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,6 K! |, N! U, U4 x" W8 j7 ^7 M
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have. K' z1 D: u! p$ B' ?
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.7 ^& i4 ~# b9 b" m) f5 P, _
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
' ~! u0 s2 q8 ?2 S2 {. z6 Lproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
; Y3 f6 l& X1 T& dhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
9 `' G+ O1 S# c- e. t7 L( r pAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
% F5 ^& u" z. A# wstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
/ z1 Q2 e" x; f/ m' O" _ c1 a# [the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
0 U7 _5 K) T2 O. e) e- H According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets {& a1 B2 y) _4 e! F& M
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in* [$ H) d8 Z( F% V5 d" `
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 ^/ X6 |! \ o5 m% ^1 V: i# E
historically depressed levels.1 y/ ]5 X9 }1 R( K3 o
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost0 r7 H h( \% z9 M. o
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House8 h; R' H O2 W7 q; ^8 G' ^- f% L/ O
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
3 I$ f/ ]8 ~9 Mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This% D6 k) o" v. }6 {; x* K' X
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the2 q# q& v+ x0 I- E
months ahead," added Hogue.5 C; [1 v0 V. v$ B
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest' W8 E9 K2 L% |- }
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: w; [7 J! }' F3 H8 r s42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.6 K' {) H- G; h# j$ z3 V) ]: J
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
- _- W) V0 y4 j& _8 e+ Ba broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
( B# ]0 H9 H- o% Q+ ycities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only0 m' c! w( K8 e- }2 h
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
d' b& `7 t- `( w; q$ l( P5 N7 g The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ K1 T5 }, V1 f. q% b% r
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
, Q% Z# D% q, C! ?1 j7 i! f& Kbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
8 o( ?* z% w+ ]% T2 S8 uincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
1 m: t+ o: o9 ~# [ A, N: ycondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* U. t* C. J* J. u4 P3 V7 H- h EFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership, \% G/ N1 n7 o% D) i; I% }9 Z
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
. q- C8 x [, I6 C7 Hper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
+ V7 m5 N/ T( I! C) U, O! L+ I4 T, x: r% U9 H+ e0 Z O
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5 O0 L% ?" h& s' W: Z Highlights from across Canada:+ j$ m2 @. o/ C" O8 G" V
" G% y$ u! `9 Q5 `0 X/ F5 z
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
+ y, w8 I! ^$ K" c intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
0 ~8 M; n1 R$ f# h; Q0 d& E$ m. {$ Z home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
* O4 F: _ r' {: p9 C only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track& l8 x6 Q1 u( W/ B% _6 E4 V% [9 p
since about the middle of 2007., z# z( b. y, G5 [
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 n6 s _$ ~" ~% s: \4 G
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to V1 q2 v* i0 n
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
1 p7 V8 m' _$ R1 Q+ ]1 ] w4 x7 i0 Q largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely/ k' Z! m1 w7 Q7 z* z
poor affordability levels.# N5 E7 X ^3 J% D" X5 s; I# I& N* Y
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the/ Q& p9 }5 {8 v
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and1 h7 z- H. p: v$ [7 D) w$ T
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.2 |" ~# e1 B6 N
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to# b( a9 i2 {; P" @8 Y) w
minimize any downside risks. \( D/ p5 a/ }; o" v, F1 S }( z
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market) k3 ?" O( t/ U! R. `
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
- y, Z1 p: K6 K# O5 w5 S unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
# |. [1 V7 E/ U! H& ~5 Z 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' Z) g5 s: z* f% Y5 u2 | being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.2 ^* ?& X0 w- J( @
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in5 A# n; o8 c0 e$ x8 r. C0 }
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
# `7 e3 G$ h2 N6 G, I Y8 V8 m far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, |+ q* `) k2 l9 X/ _6 v3 d
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. L7 J" g/ J6 a& e$ J& G ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
' H; c$ u# @) _& D: C modestly in recent years.
& U+ n# D4 |7 b" C w! j6 | - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) r: t9 a; {9 i8 M' `, M
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot) Q. V$ M( E% i4 m+ Y; e
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward* z) @! ]; z1 v/ x$ ^$ ~' V7 K
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability, a4 i" ]; u/ k" J6 o# P
following two years of deterioration.
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发表于 2009-4-15 19:05
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