reaction to Alberta’s proposed royalty over done

QWE321

Look for buying opportunity in Suncor and Canadian Natural, Citigroup says
1 V! f1 M5 K% I& y5 W- QThe negative after-market reaction to Alberta’s proposed royalty changes for the energy sector appears overdone and may present an opportunity to buy some names in the sector, says Citigroup analyst Doug Leggate.
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; j9 @* @: o  LHe recommends keeping an eye on preferred names in the sector like Suncor Energy Inc. (SU/TSX) and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ/TSX), but admits there will likely be a strong response to any change from the industry.

This view is partly a result of oil prices. Citigroup has a long-term oil price assumption of US$60 per barrel, which means the changes are not considered material enough to warrant any alterations to its earnings or target prices.

* j' d4 s8 h3 A( dAt first glance, the proposed regime looks significantly less onerous than feared, Mr. Leggate said in a research note, adding that with US$55 oil, there would be no changes to his assumptions.

There would be an impact with prices at US$100 and the royalty rate increases on a sliding scale with a cap at US$120 for WTI crude, he said, adding that the sector is discounting prices below US$60.

. J& z$ Q6 j: B' W# p) k- J7 B( _“...Versus the level of oil prices we estimate are currently being discounted in the major Canadian oil sands players, the impact on valuations looks benign,” Mr. Leggate wrote.
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So while he acknowledged that the new regime gives away some upside, the analyst thinks plenty of core value remains with investors.