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发表于 2015-9-11 09:37
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$ ?2 \3 |) `- L2 B: z5 `0 l: ZBy Barani Krishnan
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude futures fell on Friday after Wall Street's most influential voice in oil trading, Goldman Sachs, slashed its price outlook through next year, citing oversupply and concerns about China's economy.4 k% P: q! z) L* P! |" o! ?
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Joining Germany's Commerzbank and a long list of other banks in cutting price projections, Goldman lowered its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude to $45 a barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50 from $62.
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"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we forecast this surplus to persist in 2016," Goldman said in a note entitled "Lower for even longer".# ~: H. W; d5 N. f9 ?. k
- c2 L0 l+ O4 S% \# XCiting "operational stress" as a growing downside risk to its forecast, Goldman said crude could fall further to near $20 a barrel. "While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels ... is becoming greater as- X: q# u- ]- Q9 n+ _
' P: j1 E) L5 L7 k) Q5 cstorage continues to fill."! Z1 C3 Y" t! A8 k
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U.S. crude futures' front-month contract <CLc1> was down $1, or 2.2 percent, at $44.92 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EDT.
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The front-month in Brent <LCOc1>, the global benchmark for oil, was off 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $48.19.# u1 d4 i" e% L1 j1 e; w. E
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Both crude benchmarks had fallen about 3 percent, before paring loses with stocks on Wall Street. The U.S. stocks have provided direction to oil over the last two weeks as investors grappled with mixed fundamentals for crude.. |' m V( d. Z2 D a) k
2 O9 T! X( g+ kThe oil market is waiting next for a weekly reading of the U.S. oil rig count, due at 1:00 p.m. ET. The data will show for whether oil producers were cutting back on drilling as prices head lower again after a brief rebound in the second quarter.! R n! ?$ E: C" H2 u
1 P& j# j6 I. TCrude prices have more than halved over the past year, with Brent tumbling from nearly $120 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $43 last month. Prices collapsed as a global glut of crude pushed commercial and government inventories to all-time highs.
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Analysts say the market is rebalancing, but high stocks will keep weighing on prices into next year.9 d6 C' u( s/ F. h# ]& A, {2 `
7 s+ d @2 n6 Q. NGermany's Commerzbank said Brent was likely to trade at $55 by the end of 2015, and around $65 by end-2016.7 b& Y) P4 E: j3 h% |8 z0 W$ \# }4 K
- v X! s7 M0 t2 ]9 ], c3 vInvestors shrugged off a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises the world's biggest economies on energy policy. The IEA said a move by the world's big oil exporters in OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to defend their market share by not reducing production, appeared to be working." `3 d$ m2 d* a* j: z1 I
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(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Christopher Johnson in London and Meeyoung Cho in Seoul; Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio) |
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