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( M! F0 f, z+ K |( H% |" Q Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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2 `/ f' A8 c4 v* P& @ In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.+ R; c; O: S+ Y/ N: B. N
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2 n' |9 f( O1 AThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
1 Y3 G3 B3 h# J3 y- J' sBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN' y4 Y" l% d- u' w) | x3 l3 |# g
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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) o7 c7 A! y4 l# t2 ?Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ( S! ~6 E* G6 p2 y% e- A, r$ Y
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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$ \3 c5 q" ~# g- r# _Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 2 l! {$ _8 D, _7 _
3 S" j8 ~4 F$ P/ M; mShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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5 S5 ~( L; M" M& l$ iCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. : Y7 _, n9 G @( n7 k* w7 X# S
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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9 F1 C: M6 }0 n; dStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 3 b: f1 q* n- p/ z
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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1 b" }: u0 q, _0 C"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT ! v/ Z, b) n" I6 `
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. ' B j; Q/ L' A+ E0 d% w
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 3 x- p6 y- m" J4 W
" x0 o# }5 d* p: d4 s9 kHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ) U {; W" f! K7 f
$ j& E( k( p& Y3 E* a3 v/ J. b"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. , M- W0 b9 C( M* w* U2 R
0 b$ [5 [1 `$ H5 f4 _So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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& T. h+ e4 ~- O- C7 B2 t, LYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 5 T% s4 t P0 Q! p
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. + P9 N+ `/ B/ V0 U( @2 D
1 P- K5 u0 \+ N PLet the good times roll.
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