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4 H, L/ w9 f& P6 R( |3 BThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
* B0 @6 l1 h4 S8 I6 C! D DBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. - j/ I# J; v! H0 W$ N
) C/ X# o# V% C1 d6 RBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. / j$ Q' D R2 ~( L0 Q- r
. l- j% u7 Y3 j; ]/ b$ s; xDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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6 f4 q F3 k! g+ F0 ]6 \"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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' m8 \6 }: P+ ~She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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- t& e/ f) s9 ~"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. ( k: q/ R& w8 r8 \6 }3 W5 h
& _) y9 r" o9 L5 A$ d) V9 v" y$ X3 \Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 1 u( x0 r* c4 I# }
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 9 G( h" p. n4 s2 ^ W1 w3 I; v( O
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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9 d" u2 E/ X5 A$ M"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ' E q, A8 @. ~; f8 v/ r
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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) ^8 o) P6 n( V( i" GHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." $ P! _% F' t1 l( s
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. / H9 {2 n C1 S* V
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ! ^) |/ h! l" L# d' B) a
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. + A" z5 h) Z- U9 p
! R2 J: W7 n+ _$ P( h. w$ a3 o% dSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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2 V! ^) T# S4 z4 ~: B* p! zYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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/ x5 O1 ]: T3 I5 [+ N"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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8 ]% d$ M- E. m5 l; h9 `Previous story: Bottom Line
8 e! U$ {3 R. D, }; s" BNext story: Building permits hit record5 z9 k }1 }1 J
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' S" x/ \7 a& z2 Q; r! U This site is updated by 4:00 a.m. MST each day and includes stories and columns from the day's print edition of The Edmonton Sun.
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