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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com w! g9 J, \- ?
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4 T! z: v- X6 O, P XThu, January 11, 2007 ?: s0 c$ w6 q- c5 u. t
0 E0 a& O2 K' b; Z3 k) y5 }Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
- L( w) D9 ?5 n/ }5 h6 y; _By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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% W% s6 y8 @# h5 hMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. & S7 _: W/ j, n0 A5 V- I
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ) o7 L! O B# h! D+ P
/ ?/ T8 }. K; ?, ^6 z2 i6 LDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. $ C% D/ X- Z+ T7 X5 J8 h
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' {0 _. l8 N2 U. n' e" u( q3 S! g"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ) ?; @: D& f* ^, A9 u2 y$ f2 \ \
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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7 E( Y+ K3 F- m- O; DCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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" ]9 U# `5 P3 ]- l# s2 r5 e"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." $ Z: V+ ~0 e5 m! U s* {; x
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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" p/ v+ \& e8 C" S9 |"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 0 |5 [/ V4 q! h/ T
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ( I/ g9 \8 B. D# _6 X
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. . v& N! \; |- n7 k$ t+ y
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ( ]4 ~/ U- ?; D3 } T& b0 J0 y
0 ~, q3 F6 p" H0 P$ vExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ) x, L- c& J& L: W$ _. |
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. # y. t. C) H- b8 W
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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: _+ I+ L! Y, B$ d* xYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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: g" W3 [$ R2 `, P. K5 N5 O1 H. g"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ' F, {8 s* T% _2 L4 W
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Let the good times roll. ( ^- E, w) A- C, C4 K7 x
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