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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com3 j! h( j! l; X% M% }4 X9 z
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
: L' y) h8 W' dBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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9 ^0 e5 R. Y( P2 g7 a) i% w3 [/ IThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. t" O+ M5 `* \3 t
, b2 Q0 e& @1 x' t/ OBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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& k4 G2 m6 R- YDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ' c @% Q/ Y* V& H
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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& H$ @ S1 L) S5 }* M"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." ( F. ?. c; G1 }9 g, A- m
( c( }$ R2 U; G" Z1 dShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. % F, w& G! t# J% W% z
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. ; N$ R! w/ j% Y
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ' u) o" x+ q0 @* N( l
' H& }5 y7 x8 a- }* a# l- E"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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- a1 _' b2 N/ R( Q, L/ h/ ~"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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5 H* Z5 X9 t( b"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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% I5 F1 A8 C& ]"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." : }' m" u9 ^) c, t0 }" \
$ N* [8 M9 R1 @4 B: i2 w% `; LExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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/ B$ G2 x7 U, gHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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: Q) \' `6 Z3 N$ j9 G7 l% p0 C) G1 cSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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+ z( m0 f$ _0 a4 y; HYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 3 u& C! y4 M6 V0 R% i
& u( T# C6 {2 w# k- q' K) d"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. + Z7 Q+ f! B* h* ?0 Q
$ ]8 m o* A# L" g) t# UPrevious story: Bottom Line
+ a! U9 `6 Q( k ?7 D! P, L. q* fNext story: Building permits hit record8 y3 H; u+ b' b0 j5 V
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@& ^1 ~9 F" l This site is updated by 4:00 a.m. MST each day and includes stories and columns from the day's print edition of The Edmonton Sun.
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