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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com1 ?" ?7 _# ~5 \0 `5 ^- e' [# {) H
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.; b. T* e- ]" ^4 V& p: x v$ H
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
+ g+ Z* M4 }' CBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN. d1 b! `, H; F/ {
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( S$ s2 E: v& ]" k3 [They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. n7 |$ ~5 J7 Y& Y$ o; ]
5 f/ k6 D% Q. j/ n% T5 Q. D# [5 wMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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$ E! W) P; A2 J" oDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. # o, ~0 L9 _$ ^8 e
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$ C& s- ~: Z+ E. n' Q"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 2 @9 o* B0 @- ?7 D4 l. Z
- U+ q1 O9 ~3 e7 ?/ UShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. & M. l) n' @. Y, _
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. $ @- Q: `" e; x& C6 ?1 Z
Y! o9 T8 u/ g- v$ GCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ! h4 l, Q0 w+ m! |4 o' e' O/ u
2 ]; G+ b$ o. _! k$ W8 EStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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" {/ \0 f5 Y9 H2 v- ^7 f9 k$ ["A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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$ Z3 x$ u2 q' z! ^; `% H"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. n, A' s6 ^8 |6 E5 ?
; P7 d1 H7 I% u! \$ W" j; I/ z" F"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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! d: I- h: k0 o Q I+ c8 K \He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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% c8 |* N% D1 L/ J& J" E8 K1 RExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. u" q+ S$ A( a1 D$ B
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. w; e% N2 {% O3 \8 B: n
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. : M# ]; X9 y& u0 h6 i8 ~
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ; Z) x1 P* T* G9 X3 l
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 9 p& f5 a" [: G0 n1 _
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. - `. I# ?; G/ R. [% l* ~
% Z7 {$ m+ z! dLet the good times roll. 6 i6 z; h4 q- H$ _
5 W9 I/ A9 f& ~2 p' pPrevious story: Bottom Line
3 _1 B# n0 v9 O3 `: V: jNext story: Building permits hit record6 T1 }% x8 W! R2 z
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