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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com& I# s& E5 }# D: R* b" k; u
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A( i% J8 _6 y, K9 P" XThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20070 q8 ~" z/ Z3 i" `, x, L9 _
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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- r7 Z4 N% D& H4 F& fThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 4 Y1 i i: y* E( _) d2 L
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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) J8 ]8 P" `9 i( O) p( TBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ; ~" i. ~. N9 Z' v+ d; j
d& x5 C% @; T( w9 K8 cDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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\* g P( p* m1 J8 n8 P"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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. i0 \- u" e1 F6 M: ]7 p) JShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 8 S! q/ O5 o! M( Y2 @- w3 V( p& ^9 h
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 5 o: `# g' |$ E! k
0 K; U1 P: n( p9 ~' TCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." # _& H4 W4 g5 y0 e
: [3 a5 ?( p+ C* V! P/ ~Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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# v; o w' r! Q/ f* M"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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; R) e; c6 F& j( FExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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8 a; s3 h% h0 H. tOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. $ x8 ?2 B. m) w$ X. v& L
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 2 a4 L* a; {* T0 N+ n3 S* W$ Z
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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# b) ]- O; E- s! H, G6 b c"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. : F$ O2 \# a! c" {) r0 `* ]0 j
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Let the good times roll. 7 [! h+ U2 V) S+ h) G
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