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: b* O% P# P2 K( Q& p/ X Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.2 F8 f/ y2 u: z- `2 v
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Thu, January 11, 20073 ^# H: B! @* s
6 Q+ @6 ?1 ]5 m" WPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20070 C- r8 u* r( Q
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN' k* [( j( E- `/ W3 h
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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7 X. c9 q8 W, P- `Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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: ]* }/ r! M4 {. d: T5 D2 eBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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" H9 ^; i/ Y. O- d9 _0 H" P. N8 Z2 mDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. & _. u# V- [# Y( ?. b
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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" ^2 b& U; w& B1 }; {! yShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 4 C. Q+ ]5 @/ D, {& _
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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* E/ n& U7 @+ u7 j# WCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. & C' U" I0 P; r- K7 t. x0 J
* N/ P6 r1 @/ j8 }"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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; A+ c) s% W# U1 P' BStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 1 ~8 J9 S. o& P; ~
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 6 p2 S3 ^2 S$ _
: ?. `) x* ~" v6 y2 X"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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4 o8 |% C. L- q' l/ S9 @"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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+ v# u8 Q( G5 ?+ YHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. % s! e2 k" j4 o' a2 @4 K8 A
( Z# ~4 e$ x+ s& }' sOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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e( Y# ?$ B$ u$ OHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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+ h: s: d6 p# I8 h"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ) B0 H$ Q. w# G6 u& b& o0 e
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ( V4 X; i. n t( f
; R. n5 `8 K. A! i$ x9 `. ^; m% x) V"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. ( R! h, H0 T, c1 g+ R5 _! g
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Previous story: Bottom Line
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