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6 P, ]5 c" c) l1 r/ j' UThu, January 11, 2007( ^. @7 L" {9 a3 N: c
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20078 R; X# M* K2 T* X
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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5 U* C2 F" _* b. H: HThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 7 G1 R8 H9 s) H% m2 M. ?
4 n/ j( q8 K, C! @/ |Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ) {* Z( |2 K) l- i. [+ n) j
; H5 S) K- e* W9 o- p# d c3 ^1 SDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ; v/ j& v Z6 x* }4 r
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' * e+ X' ^* G* L- e5 a1 e+ m* u
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 8 c! T! q4 Q* t
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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1 d0 U7 p& N" _" r"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. - z5 N/ f/ T6 {9 U$ f0 r7 s( ]
/ ~, o) g/ J; A; v3 xCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 5 ?, i5 Q# G) s5 Z8 m1 E( m% @
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." , M' ~) o/ }( `' u4 g
3 Z2 z5 G* b- b0 K& VStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ! V( D% Y; S" l! U3 ?
% d0 P1 ~/ x8 q! {* ?0 Y' k' C"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 4 s% T1 M) L: P E6 O
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT * p/ s i r7 z# k5 X: `3 Z& |
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 3 M: S* i2 v* g0 y
3 N1 m9 ^1 r( v3 S3 XOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. B" E Q( g3 Q0 A w" C
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 8 ~. a6 P* ?; L/ x9 a: }- I
- u% [3 R+ S9 R: F& `# ?$ BSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. * S2 a# p3 H2 s2 q$ V4 C
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. $ {- o, ]3 ?5 b. m8 Y7 z
9 T9 A {+ [" z! d FLet the good times roll. : n# i4 u! \1 y! ~) h! F! \
! B1 C0 j- J" u. {+ Q4 z% s* BPrevious story: Bottom Line5 T; {. a( ~8 ~( D5 Q
Next story: Building permits hit record
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
