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Canada's housing market both vigorous and stable
5 g4 Q5 ~2 U; M. a
0 b: `: p; ~! [. n v; `- Country's market poised to show growth throughout 2006 -. ?! |4 r7 V8 @
0 z1 ~% x6 x& Z! G7 d) e TORONTO, Sept. 28 /CNW/ - For most of Canada, the housing market8 u6 a. G, R8 f, O: U& E1 ~
exhibited moderate price increases and stable unit sales during the third9 u$ @1 m9 n/ B
quarter. Wide regional variances continued to be the dominant characteristic0 K1 Q" [0 Y3 G3 k9 R. g* z) R) l
in the market, exemplified by frenzied levels of activity and double digit: X, K! M" ]( a
price gains observed in the energy and commodity rich Western provinces, and, C; \" r0 o6 [- h
more reasonable sales volumes and moderate price appreciation in Ontario,
' M/ N# \6 i" j# V) OQuebec and Atlantic Canada, according to a report released today by Royal
1 y" W8 ]0 p$ t1 L- j: I* O2 CLePage Real Estate Services.
2 o4 W' [9 v( j% M+ L# t, \8 b$ |' n' g( Z$ N( g! ]6 O2 w
Nationally, market trends established through the first three quarters
% g8 _2 X3 `, ~are forecast to continue for the remainder of the year. Robust economic& |3 _0 A; @2 R$ L) Z- t! U5 `& A
conditions, low unemployment rates, modestly growing salaries and wages, and7 i0 m! c- E) e d0 R
sound consumer confidence contributed to the overall strength of the
' X# H" }5 V1 }* Z2 Dresidential real estate sector.
' `( v7 M9 {2 y2 ~5 O6 U2 H& b9 _# J3 y' S W: D9 O2 h
Of the housing types surveyed, the highest average price appreciation3 H* a5 Q2 d* \% N8 E
occurred in detached bungalows, which rose to $300,365 (+16.3%)& e, c$ F4 s8 L( D* _
year-over-year, followed by standard condominiums, which rose to $211,562
7 @5 i, N, b0 t6 e+ d' q- D9 X(+14.2%), and standard two-storey properties, which increased to $365,380
, f' |) g3 q$ P. V(+13.2%).# @% P" A- t( y. f$ {0 l: z, C- A0 V0 v
0 n4 @! d. i' V6 K "Canada's sturdy housing market continued to demonstrate steady growth( |' R# b4 _ E; h0 W
during the third quarter. For all but the west, we have moved on from the
6 k, K& S# p1 b7 m' Nfrenzied expansion that characterized the first half of this decade, and are& V; k z! Z/ S% r9 n4 k
poised to show continued growth at a more moderate pace," said Phil Soper,
: N+ n/ p; ^/ O4 hpresident and chief executive officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services.; W% E9 M' Z3 I3 K& Y! [& q
"Gone is the sellers' market that we have lived with for some years. We
0 v+ R% ?! K; B2 M ]- X, l8 lwelcome the more reliable conditions that are characteristic of a healthy5 b; w" `) M/ L) o- N
balanced market."0 X0 j0 c1 P; `8 X7 p4 O
& j" u1 ^' y Z) j/ s! k# }1 ^' h Despite the double-digit rise in average national house prices,) R" |1 S: F' e) X& b, G6 |
considerable regional variances were exhibited again this quarter. The shift/ v! ]: F! C; |) f0 k" q
to balanced market conditions, which began in late 2005, has continued
* _( N* _- C, ^2 Ythroughout most of the Central and Eastern regions of the country. In the core6 {4 B* m! x2 q+ T
energy producing western provinces, the combination of very high in-migration,
: {7 C7 O b: B: T+ U0 a5 i6 zmanageable affordability, and a shortage of inventory has driven record
$ Y( U$ P/ d* a, ^9 f( K. N2 G, _breaking price appreciations.0 ]3 k) y U4 `: j9 Y. W
3 p& m5 C/ o5 t5 J
Echoing the second quarter and supported by Alberta's rapidly expanding
! f: w7 x6 P2 y9 K: Z; Reconomy, Calgary and Edmonton led the charge of Canadian cities with the- I; m% j; R# q `
largest house price appreciation in all housing types surveyed.
& r" I8 q6 S+ X
2 x' J9 Z' L) q u9 C In Ottawa and Toronto, growth remained steady, supported by solid S% Q* {) h4 P
economic fundamentals, an increase in available inventory and strong consumer# _% D- F0 V' a) x* O* @
confidence. While the pace of price appreciation in Ontario leveled off! t7 [5 I& o' x8 A2 `9 u
slightly, the province's real estate market remains poised for modest growth.
% q. M3 m/ j8 pIn Atlantic Canada, new housing and condominium construction offered buyers
: j X9 @" W0 m/ Y8 f3 Wgreater selection at more competitive prices, resulting in a slower rate of) r0 y; v2 e4 R% h7 x
price appreciation when compared with 2005.$ C1 d) M- c2 n- J
4 l5 A5 g6 o5 w3 g+ v
While the pace of growth in Canada has slowed, the domestic housing2 x4 t3 n4 B2 U" B% Z b
market is expected to outperform the American market. The economic and# {' J5 t9 Q5 S2 f b6 g
financial fundamentals driving the residential real estate sector in Canada! N+ g6 |" l" X: i! |9 m) [# Z
are markedly different than those found in the United States.
) s# B0 ?8 e( E) h7 d! o
r& `2 E. H$ T Added Soper: "Canada's housing market is likely to outperform the
. p7 w @9 _6 B6 i BAmerican market through 2007. A number of factors are working in Canada's, ]$ v) _1 n A% B- p
favour, including healthy personal and governmental debt levels, the+ H# A. R# M, @
relatively modest rise in interest rates in our country, and general
; t' X+ T q: Faffordability in our major cities. In addition, Americans are now seeing the/ B) v/ q( ^" j& v
downside of a tax system that encourages maximum homeowner leverage, and
' C6 Z, }7 l. d) F& P' y& A) Faggressive financial products such as zero- and negative-amortization
! l6 f7 v% \. a6 i) p+ b6 gmortgages that work only in a high price growth environment."; d$ v* m$ t6 K6 m# d
" l1 i2 a/ K( R8 t4 ?% }
<<
" U' n Q1 g5 a5 w( b& X REGIONAL SUMMARIES# e" y6 F2 c1 }3 M1 O+ l& Y* v* U
>>
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Balanced conditions continued to characterize the housing market in6 \! Z+ m: ~- R9 W7 W" [1 V$ |! V' Y2 H
Halifax, as significantly higher inventory levels helped to moderate the rate
0 V: n/ p* B4 V$ H0 x: H9 v O3 Tof price appreciation. Buyers were increasingly choosy, taking more time
+ J* T- V0 k+ y$ t3 Clooking for newer, low-maintenance properties that were not in need of, |" c1 K" u8 h" {7 i
renovations.
$ D8 T+ a+ i( s9 \8 N7 j" v
' X" U9 P! w' U& N The housing market in Moncton remained healthy and strong as a slight: t6 x; Y7 d# J" k. n4 X
increase in inventory helped to moderate the rate of price appreciation
1 z7 ]" T1 z0 Y6 ~: N5 m4 ]9 O8 o( ucompared to the same period in 2005. Activity was brisk throughout August and
5 I5 V. V( j j# E! S1 cSeptember and is expected to remain this way through the fourth quarter.6 M: k* t {- h4 ~6 E2 H0 H& F) W
, I' B4 d7 l# v' I; `5 m y
The housing market in Saint John underwent its traditional summer
* ^" b7 }5 E% y: L Hslowdown in the third quarter, with activity picking up towards the end of the
# e" I7 `1 D+ v0 g1 Q* s$ e" Lquarter. The local economy continued to thrive, as construction on a new3 Y8 v1 ?% {( ]9 Z9 [7 W1 l4 I
600,000 square-foot shopping area has begun, bringing several new box stores7 N# S) `# x! x9 n
to the area. Buyers have begun seeking less expensive fixtures for their homes+ `* K5 V+ W f) d# p
and are instead opting for more affordable housing options.
- C, \: B8 A# H% W8 x6 x" j: y' H4 o S% a5 T. o& f7 f9 g
In Charlottetown, the housing market started to move towards balanced
, L0 k$ s2 u Gconditions, as some sellers had to begin to lower the asking prices on their
9 G9 B4 {4 P! }' G- w9 U7 v; lhomes to make them more competitive. Activity from out-of-town and US buyers+ K B: S% M9 j
was down slightly compared to 2005, likely attributable to the strong Canadian
* R+ b/ f. F4 o7 odollar. Inventory levels began to creep up in the third quarter, providing
; w. O* e* a+ f6 u; y( d% Fbuyers with more options when looking for a home.
4 L6 K5 S. [: v$ Q: n' K7 L, Q9 s9 A8 c. R N% p3 W
Activity in St. John's slowed slightly in the third quarter, particularly
8 _' N5 l7 L; ~! {among higher-priced properties, where there was a slight over-supply of homes% g, |2 ~. Y y8 v- }
priced over $200,000. Listing periods have increased when compared with 2005,
% q2 @7 w# j1 i! @as some of the pent-up demand that had characterized the market over the last
$ s) g( r3 h1 V5 jfew years has been satisfied, resulting in more normal, balanced conditions.
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Montreal's housing market recorded modest increases in average house& g% K7 {% C8 ?9 a+ e0 J
prices, due to a slight seasonal slowdown in the third quarter as inventory
$ x2 i3 L) ?& t M* B2 slevels rose. Part of this can be attributed to the fact that many renting; E; N$ d9 A, s2 b2 v
first-time buyers were motivated to close on the purchase of a home by July 1," ^$ D5 Q3 E0 r) j4 M
when rental leases expire in Quebec. Once this date has passed some of the
) g7 ^+ E1 r" ?/ O# O! \2 tpressure is taken off the market, allowing buyers to visit more homes before6 i8 l" N" E. M9 r* n+ M) g* M9 {
making a purchase.
$ h+ F" [4 t$ g: O0 u8 q. [1 `# Z2 c: [, Q, I
Ottawa held its position as one of the country's most stable housing
7 G, }9 r3 z, P/ {/ N1 S+ m& l+ V& ]markets in the third quarter, reinforced by a vibrant local economy and strong$ k8 _; y+ D& r4 W
confidence, resulting in modest increases in average house prices. The city
# w: C& G, p3 _- y1 E' U! g7 w& Tcentre remained a bright spot in Ottawa, with homes in this area attracting
: q4 z2 M$ `$ t4 G: \attention due to their convenient location and proximity to downtown
, G0 c( U+ Q) s/ J7 eamenities.( |0 v% D- y' o7 ^
7 l# Z0 _$ R6 t9 ~+ R
The housing market in Toronto sustained healthy activity levels$ S7 V1 m" @/ y$ L$ k/ ? q2 f& @& p
throughout the third quarter, as a strong economy helped to maintain demand
7 [4 d$ [: c7 i8 Macross the city, causing average house prices to rise moderately. Toronto has8 A% ?6 P6 P' g; p9 Z
continued to experience modest growth in average house prices, and has been
/ G) P/ ~ l! b5 |" U1 odriven primarily by purchasers who are buying homes as their principle
( J9 t9 o- h) g8 l4 }# {residence, rather than for investment.
0 r0 L3 r/ B# H6 F: G8 j! p# r, L6 V- [
The vibrant Winnipeg housing market continued to show its strength as8 a: v3 l! W1 L0 F x
house prices rose during the third quarter. The booming local economy resulted
0 C" J4 L" t, A, P. ?in a historically low unemployment rate, helping to bolster consumer
v0 J7 U5 ~: ^# ` Yconfidence and Winnipeg's ranking as the city with the lowest capitalization9 V+ }$ `( B6 \- v
rate among the country's larger cities - helped to encourage buyers to enter
, A4 q# c* {% qthe market.8 D. k: T# c+ Y
# C6 P2 F1 l$ i2 |: \$ c0 U In Regina, the market experienced a slight seasonal slowdown through
# o* s$ R+ r% t% g3 [& `8 M; }July, as there were fewer purchasers in the market due to summer vacations. In
8 c: T+ d& j8 n) z9 u: [August, activity resumed to the busy pace previously seen in the spring3 A7 m# H7 j0 E0 v5 l
months, as the influx of purchasers made it more difficult to find a home due
. A( Z; k! K! E% d; T& Ito the shortage of available inventory., }; f& I* \ ?( a) T- {' q6 j* }
# S) d4 M! Y' D- ] Activity in Saskatoon remained brisk as the market maintained its1 U8 f+ l3 t" i8 P
momentum from the busy spring sales period. The economy in Saskatoon remains
! H* g0 A$ U5 @! dvibrant, as employment opportunities are abundant with many businesses+ `/ _( }( q- R7 m# \" e; v
struggling to make hires and having to recruit outside the province.
* O/ r D6 h5 b* c) X" R7 c/ Y1 Q! y6 D) h, U: {
Calgary's housing market recorded blazing average house price increases
* F5 Y# N+ v8 n$ Z/ g. j& \. ]8 o3 @in the third quarter, in all surveyed categories. The burgeoning economy, low2 B& g0 \# ^: k( J2 t3 q. F( _
unemployment rates and low inventory levels remained the leading factors that
8 w6 N2 P3 ]+ o: u% T0 h6 qpressured Calgary's house prices upwards. However, regardless of the soaring
* F# \( b% f" b( q, z# vprices that characterized the market - even during the typically slower summer8 X: ~! ]8 y- z( J, g0 d4 V
season - it is expected that activity will become slightly more balanced, as
: Q j2 @( D; z, ^4 A5 C. d; Xbuyers are becoming more reluctant to participate in the frenetic activity.
4 P% l/ Z% w9 [1 }" O/ O; o7 {- Q( u( G' `( o9 P& M2 q5 ~. F
Edmonton's booming local economy continued to thrive in the third quarter
( {& ]+ W! _- ]& nas activity in the oil sands north of the city continued to flourish. Edmonton* q! V2 W) V/ D% G
remained the hub of activity for those coming to work in the oil industry,
6 j! `$ A; I% S, kmaintaining tight inventory levels across the city, resulting in prices4 ?$ o9 u4 N N& t4 v2 |- N- E: w
increasing at record levels. However, as inventory levels continued to improve
# C) R1 |+ V1 Xin the third quarter the rate of price appreciation should moderate slightly# I, ^0 t6 p( A1 h* S2 E0 J
towards the end of 2006.
4 U5 }- x4 f. Y! r- y9 b0 Y
) H/ y i; \8 n+ [% AWhile Vancouver has seen a slight reprieve from the severe shortage of3 g" S3 ~$ ~2 k
inventory that had previously characterized the market, supply is still unable+ |0 L. W3 J! O: |7 T: Q
to meet demand, driving house prices upwards. Vancouver has a very diverse& s$ }4 \: q1 w/ n& ^3 o' B
group of active buyers - from first-time home buyers to baby-boomers to
# k3 d; J7 u* v9 Q7 wforeign investors - all of whom fuel the demand for houses, placing added
, G, w b0 G% c# A; N7 ypressure on tight inventory levels.! S, ]; p1 U6 N0 M+ ~/ s
- l6 q& f; G9 @$ {+ H* l
Victoria's market is vibrant and supported by strong economic
& v: v% p a* mfundamentals, fuelled by a booming tech sector and a migration of young people2 L0 @1 d: x3 w. k1 X2 _ C7 t
into the city that has continued to support the area's house price increases;
4 o) s* ]6 g2 Z6 b& U. ~, ?while increased inventory levels have afforded buyers more time when searching
, t" E: \6 Q. N4 [for a home, helping to normalize the market's pace.6 y& q# {$ E4 C; j
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<</ B n2 i: p2 T2 P) f
Survey of Canadian Average House Prices in the Third Quarter 2006 ?$ \0 R' y8 J, C9 W x* V
) b; d, l, l; e+ ? J6 } -------------------------------------------------------------------------
+ ]# j& C3 A! p& Y' {+ p& q Detached Bungalows Standard Two Storey, X: _# Q- ~0 m% B$ n
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 m0 |/ \$ |7 A 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Bungalow 2006 Q3 2005 Q3
8 p' C9 n8 J* [' p Market Average Average % Change Average Average; \7 n3 n z& m
-------------------------------------------------------------------------( ^, ]5 G/ I# q; X
Halifax 186,333 173,333 7.5% 198,667 199,000& x6 v7 R1 T4 c, r( \0 A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 G7 K6 A) K9 x1 d* T% j! e0 e% y" J Charlottetown 145,000 141,000 2.8% 175,000 170,000
: _" X! p _7 q4 ?( l$ B -------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 l. h ? M$ |/ z, E( M4 w: x# l Moncton 135,000 127,000 6.3% 129,000 123,000
1 W+ r0 D/ T& u2 H2 F -------------------------------------------------------------------------3 v5 a3 u4 x" w% l$ i
Saint John 141,200 142,900 -1.2% - -) G" {* o$ t. o1 d0 Q7 r. w
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 ]- h9 ^! D$ N1 u5 I" J& n St. John's 143,667 142,667 0.7% 200,667 202,3332 j7 Q6 l5 T" {- @! F8 V" ^1 y4 X
-------------------------------------------------------------------------/ Q( Z Q7 S) G: u' T% e
Atlantic 150,240 145,380 3.3% 175,833 173,583& h' q8 k: U4 ~
-------------------------------------------------------------------------% g8 _; y! I! |5 o# n
Montreal 213,691 203,500 5.0% 321,141 316,185
9 T9 G: e- z" i# x -------------------------------------------------------------------------
: o+ [1 w V9 P Ottawa 290,083 278,417 4.2% 285,667 273,250( ?% p! `; |9 F2 U% @2 C
-------------------------------------------------------------------------! V7 @+ T0 s3 {9 ?( P4 T/ ?. h
Toronto 373,368 355,882 4.9% 481,523 474,766
' ]; T4 c- s' [. c z3 b; a -------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 `- t, A+ e; M m* o Winnipeg 181,579 159,860 13.6% 202,337 180,707
, S, Q l# @0 }3 f! R% O. ? -------------------------------------------------------------------------
# K, ]# e! e) k V4 F% y2 v Saskatchewan 170,667 156,083 9.3% 182,600 166,500
, `( J5 e* T6 R2 b9 w N X! {! I -------------------------------------------------------------------------# r; w3 P% E! |) V% i; u
Calgary 395,067 252,411 56.5% 405,778 264,389; G9 E4 e# [3 Q, k
-------------------------------------------------------------------------: b# [( I" c. M& e7 _" T8 r4 m
Edmonton 286,857 194,857 47.2% 316,429 206,7148 e% y; x F4 o, g5 h( @+ d
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
, K0 e. z( r3 v3 `7 i$ c9 L3 P6 b Vancouver 704,250 601,000 17.2% 794,000 697,500
) m0 g. p, @+ D% V -------------------------------------------------------------------------- O1 z+ G! \/ K1 D4 f4 ]3 {
Victoria 375,000 348,000 7.8% 403,000 391,000
# Q; {% g8 t' [ |$ m -------------------------------------------------------------------------. x# W: l( g: o6 R# d
National 300,365 258,202 16.3% 365,380 322,8601 P- q' z3 o: E6 \ r( m5 `; B
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- T) X$ i" H: R- X
' ^: `+ j, Y' K5 R5 N
-------------------------------------------------------------
, y- C8 G2 k& [) z! h Standard Condominium- [5 {6 W# b: G( t2 n, I- B
-------------------------------------------------------------
* `: C# g7 r: _ o 2-Storey 2006 Q3 2005 Q3 Condo3 U+ |; O5 U% \+ Q/ j$ T( N) E
Market % Change Average Average % Change
/ a) y% O" C+ N" _4 o9 J3 E -------------------------------------------------------------
& c/ x3 q7 C. ?! E0 H; X" R Halifax -0.2% 142,000 103,000 37.9%
4 h" Q: j/ t" X0 S A -------------------------------------------------------------
2 \" | z: `. l1 l2 c- L; s% b Charlottetown 2.9% 98,000 98,000 0.0%9 ]) v7 I, `" p7 p7 q) y A
-------------------------------------------------------------3 P! t Y: N0 T, x+ Y( f- t
Moncton 4.9% - - N/A
% f1 d5 P) u* T+ ]8 W -------------------------------------------------------------
6 [6 V# A; N, _8 i$ x Saint John N/A - - N/A
0 d1 p/ L/ s. ?, M -------------------------------------------------------------
6 J7 H4 S, Y4 g: d+ } St. John's -0.8% 146,333 145,667 0.5%& S3 l2 ~! n1 o3 P9 s" C
------------------------------------------------------------- D2 I% Q! l# m4 w
Atlantic 1.3% 128,778 115,556 11.4%0 i: J# \" k1 J, S" C% |
-------------------------------------------------------------1 Q8 q# e7 h z: F2 R" y4 }- R: Y9 Q
Montreal 1.6% 193,190 188,016 2.8%
. }1 {( c& L* B5 ^. E -------------------------------------------------------------/ l0 h E- j) j. G, i) `
Ottawa 4.5% 181,083 172,250 5.1%
9 D q4 r7 \! | -------------------------------------------------------------6 ~' @* H! _" x" b' q+ Z
Toronto 1.4% 252,088 242,918 3.8%
/ ]' S/ q* A w5 }7 A+ {1 _! H$ p -------------------------------------------------------------
4 v. d" }4 X Y6 j Winnipeg 12.0% 105,648 96,008 10.0%- ~4 a) M! e! C. \9 W$ X+ ]) a9 |3 B
-------------------------------------------------------------/ \5 J; u9 ]6 a- i, N9 L
Saskatchewan 9.7% 106,250 101,000 5.2%% y' v @) P. ?% `! h4 q( d+ f
-------------------------------------------------------------# O* P: ?/ \3 p# m9 _
Calgary 53.5% 245,844 153,867 59.8%
8 g2 I3 {5 |9 Q+ | -------------------------------------------------------------! | r4 l: e2 `4 b2 {" y; ], R1 N
Edmonton 53.1% 200,433 131,500 52.4%
+ D3 X$ y0 p: k& x/ g/ Q -------------------------------------------------------------2 Y+ x1 r" P# ^
Vancouver 13.8% 366,250 323,250 13.3%
: q; a- G5 l( {% g& Q7 B [% J -------------------------------------------------------------
" S, B" g& T# |( k Victoria 3.1% 229,000 220,000 4.1%
, X0 ?* [( i- S% G& k2 N# \3 a7 Q -------------------------------------------------------------" g, N' x3 ]2 `. W1 x
National 13.2% 211,562 185,296 14.2%5 g: `8 u9 q* ]( I2 N& y/ y' f
-------------------------------------------------------------
, R- a0 j+ ?2 [6 H1 ^9 k5 O >>7 H! f9 Q; O" \' j4 `# j
0 y4 f0 ~3 i8 W5 L8 Q
Average house prices are based on an average of all sub-markets examined7 D9 x. [2 u$ A( k
in the area, except for the smaller markets of Charlottetown, Moncton, Saint* P! D7 L5 W/ }/ v8 c7 }
John and Victoria.; i. s: C7 J/ \5 s" V5 E/ ^: m: @) t
6 X" @) A4 w0 J6 m) a" h
The Royal LePage Survey of Canadian House Prices is the largest, most
( y/ r7 U3 {+ b' Ocomprehensive study of its kind in Canada, with information on seven types of
& D( x& D, x0 |0 b" Zhousing in over 250 neighbourhoods from coast to coast. This release
1 l8 e7 B7 C) [* i* ^ Q2 R* n5 x$ nreferences an abbreviated version of the survey, which highlights house price
. z4 @4 I7 F4 W8 P' z* xtrends for the three most common types of housing in Canada in 80 communities4 |. d9 Y/ b) V
across the country. A complete database of past and present surveys is/ q2 Y( y5 N0 R. T4 P
available on the Royal LePage Web site at www.royallepage.ca, and current. Z5 |% }" M- s3 Y
figures will be updated following the end of the third quarter. A printable# [3 {6 r) _, k$ z5 A; M* Y1 v
version of the third quarter 2006 survey will be available online on
4 D1 o) | q% ONovember 15, 2006.
4 Z$ I5 B( B+ {) T7 r9 P Housing values in the Royal LePage Survey are Royal LePage opinions of
1 C9 e5 [: S! J6 P: D4 [+ ifair market value in each location, based on local data and market knowledge0 @2 Y0 D* _$ t
provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts. Historical data is, V; o9 z8 F; D) M. b0 s
available for some areas back to the early 1970s. |
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