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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...: T( ^' v' [+ V3 ` V- C
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3 j; C. Z- V% U4 F- I7 c! LThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
/ @7 W6 {" |/ F" s' [7 [: I1 Z+ [# N- @; Ointeresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it% m4 M3 r2 K+ ^
will be going.
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$ z" Q) I. g; G% G v& {It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.$ U1 L T* i- r D8 F+ U
1 M* O5 g/ I: E h; S; b0 a# ?* tThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by3 D. y' f; F z# h% Q' `
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
# h# k! L* M) ?! S% M |indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
, S9 S" `% ]' R4 AWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
2 [' v7 j/ J3 q) [values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by/ m3 _8 p& I) U! n. O
how much.7 W$ Q! u) H& m+ R0 Q1 J- g; n
# [1 Q% O8 d0 p( o/ F( v) s0 @For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
' f* e1 v' x- q( N: S$ c/ K' OOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
5 b. p: _7 |1 c# h% G( J6 ]strong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
0 m4 g' y' G0 i0 kfindings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
7 z( z, E8 e6 {, i' `8 bJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best$ N' N) L' x- Z/ R0 U
markets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact N7 K- l- J" Q
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.1 b; f3 g/ j& ^, j9 ~
) L* t( P. X6 A! r/ Q( ~& iTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the. j+ j, _9 P! |4 l! T
market continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into
; r, R8 N: J; @# S1 J$ L7 l6 K- B4 Z8 r* Qthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we. r) Q. F& n2 Y' C+ Q
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
0 q- I$ [4 C0 z0 V- nThis is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
1 N, s+ Z6 |4 D j6 O& dincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting0 k- I% }( n$ q* T( [
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying, D- J. E' P" V: p. t# X) F) \+ V @2 L' \
fundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
! k/ ?; R( g5 |( W) ^. |5 ^5 Ythe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
2 |, D0 ~5 Y9 f4 quntil it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all, ~& c$ M* g9 r3 r
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
h# Z$ O! D) F0 X2005 to June 2006), also great news.! T0 S `4 {+ B5 h. c
& D8 T* a* x, p+ IBy comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June4 O: E& b. T8 @" N, [
2006 New Housing Price Index for:. F3 p- |8 ^2 `) |* f$ f9 X4 u" e
$ j4 U4 C/ r2 m, a9 qVancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%
- r' T. u: Z. B5 V1 V2 ySaskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%
+ ~2 l, }' L8 c2 p% o% _7 HLondon . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%) H" {) t- p. h2 e3 [
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%
2 u% e: N# r9 h1 u; [4 N: }St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%( V" y1 ]4 z$ c/ M
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
- a4 ~; b& q8 }5 Q. v( ZOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1%; X& M( O$ |0 e# U& m E
; T* J4 ^3 {% r, Z+ ~7 xFundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
3 \' C6 d* V" [ mgives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to9 f L% K/ @$ S3 c; ?4 k; o: j" P
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
$ `+ ^- R& Y3 oonly across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are
2 X( V8 u& E% Y1 i* r! E5 ^increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
% t4 k+ g; ^, e9 a3 W& k! U5 Odrop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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* O) _2 s0 b8 e1 ?, q( AHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong4 W! c+ k# E9 Y/ ?' U6 ?
fundamentals:# P `+ C2 X; \" ^9 @2 P
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in1 X. F) M3 \( c8 ]$ g% l( R
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth! {9 y( K$ G# ]% H
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
! Y- ]) v3 \- E5 O3 s; A$ @this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the& m6 G$ _ K- }$ M9 ^- G+ b. X* J
world. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
9 w8 l! B; U; W+ b% n3 c; }the US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
1 ~9 L& g. o1 x' _ R6 N( _8 Qthat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment g; w, ]- y% ~( L# ^- v) u9 ^' i
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in. K4 [ h8 E8 s' t: t; q$ L( l) N4 y
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after2 c+ Y0 {- a: Y& l/ V$ Z
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest- g# A+ ~5 {' ]6 W
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again0 [; T- X, \& @2 T
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
) \& [& ]" s" q. {political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
3 ^" Z- u. l4 p" g1 lbeat it for long term investment.
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7 F" @ d3 c3 Y! k' @3 C1 K- w; V4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
- F2 D7 Y8 J) }a sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job
; e# n& Q( l1 Z$ u% C3 @9 Y3 _creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
3 N( Q( H% M' z* ^, V0 W* Q" M"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
, }( X7 K) v! i( ^! P% \January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... ! Y+ ^4 N( R4 ?& w3 J( D
}7 C& @1 [9 p& g5 u6 pStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the1 B! g& H2 Q, u+ n9 I6 c
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the
( N3 X! l/ j# Y! U4 m1 xeconomy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of7 Q6 x/ d9 S7 `7 t
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not3 ]' X, t& l) H$ b: q" Z* m* x6 `
repeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with3 l' Y- Z- V5 X H8 e
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
! t6 b$ v& \9 e( p) J6 wits trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate$ p: f: }6 f# P5 a1 m
of 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in
) X1 k0 w8 Z0 k3 G3 V- ?' Fwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong2 F2 x2 J; s! a, }1 V4 l3 E
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
! u" }( I8 g( ?( H9 I4 _* h8 j5 T'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
, k( e0 ?0 I0 Jyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the4 f( {- C' ^, C7 S9 ~* y' _
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the
' J7 U2 P( ^' U'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared" N" K$ k* i; ~8 V. `
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.+ G: {# E3 S! C' T
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Capital Gains Comparison.+ u2 w! ]+ N6 d [ S. b" ~6 K
$ y8 [: ]6 O( }. z8 r* IKPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
7 i% D) {* }, C' J8 mMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see8 ^. L% z5 l6 b2 h% ?
how these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:
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# p) C8 z# c4 @9 M2 {! Y" zBC . . . . . . . . 21.9%% d4 y) y# k* P6 I, _/ \. e3 k
AB . . . . . . . . 19.5%5 b2 O' u' V5 @+ ]0 S/ A: j
SK . . . . . . . . 22.0%
8 v* p. L+ N6 y+ wMB . . . . . . . . 23.2%
& X1 U# Z0 \: Y3 ?ON . . . . . . . . 23.2%
+ ]4 j, H. ~* a0 N, v' t) iQC . . . . . . . . 24.1%# u' e" q" l3 E2 D0 l
NB . . . . . . . . 23.4%
1 X. W2 \) q3 Y0 c. kNS . . . . . . . . 24.1%
* T6 A4 Q$ I( F6 C W$ {PE . . . . . . . . 23.7%* r$ ^- R: ]* `
NF . . . . . . . . 24.3% R0 }$ s! Y/ @9 w7 H) x4 z
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Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term- g: B9 z- z0 `9 p- u% {
economy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
6 f+ C) `/ ~- U6 K, s! M6 Y+ ctheir profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.: }, X, F4 B! J' R. _* \+ `* @
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Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the6 [3 \7 K: [4 B
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of$ q w8 Y3 a& k {! `& E
course, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'- l) g. d- k$ y/ {/ K" I, D
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion6 y+ v! W1 [( q U' Y5 V P \
when you take action as a full REIN Member.
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& Q# [ T, ~ \7 Y ?0 QFocus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
, z" l. I7 W+ \9 x) d* g% ]results in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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