REIN August news letter

屯民

NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...

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! N3 p5 R# t: x# ^% `2 F! yThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
  K: v/ R  q0 n" {1 O- M& f) {interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
will be going.

7 K* o: V# X+ G5 yIt proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
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The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
+ M- l2 r! `' k/ qsophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
5 N$ k/ X& o+ \6 y' ]- Thow much.

For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
" p! x1 g0 Z4 E& uOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
0 `9 @0 G% ]1 {, s( R" x; ~, dstrong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
+ U3 j" N  P3 h. |7 B% `findings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
% r8 u4 e' s2 G, d2 MJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
markets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact
. S. e" {) Y+ Z* e6 i( q: S4 r5 u( ?on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.

1 V8 j$ A! y( e6 A: NTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
market continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into
5 t9 g: s2 c7 N- q6 v2 ]the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
" J7 a8 {: ]( C# N4 pThis is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
: d! b! z& j) f# y, }1 k* X+ Oincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
months.  
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
fundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
1 G; g3 I. ]1 |! R- c/ athe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
until it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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: a; j4 x* X& d. W1 r0 FBy the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
4 r/ F7 v% d; |! {* v$ W2006 New Housing Price Index for:
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Vancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%
Saskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%
& c# j4 m0 K& V/ E8 r) l2 VLondon . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%
, l+ W9 O. t& i1 f- c3 qHamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%
9 C' r/ C9 n( V% Y7 tSt. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
4 r* p* x# d$ H. e" |1 x+ [1 Z# fToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%

Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
! T! `0 K$ K* S* y- Fgives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
, h. `0 j5 U3 rbe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
only across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
' e/ k, }  K: z# k) }' mincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
fundamentals:
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
. ^  o5 j; V) @3 |6 L; ]Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
4 B. L# \1 [# q7 }' ?this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
: G: F- [+ Q/ h1 |" o# Yworld.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
1 ?+ z& c2 y+ M3 }: }the US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
5 J# @* p7 `$ C1 ^/ t; tthat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.

3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment
; Q& e3 H3 k5 r8 i+ q+ _! catmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after
+ s! N1 i* l" Q( p7 GDon presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
3 M8 i* T) z) H8 Ianywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
- n/ }  f" X) ~proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
beat it for long term investment.

4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
9 w4 D+ V' A# {3 K* B. PJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...

Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
" S, o- {' S( L' h/ Uthe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
( ^. _+ q% |+ s3 D& J; Wrepeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
  @7 u/ h3 r8 {/ Oits trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
of 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.


# a/ E4 H7 G: [9 t3 h0 cIn other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
7 H/ ~; f8 \! p# U0 @+ iyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
5 J/ J" u: |# A* O) topportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
' j- Z7 A: F3 ^! r# ^, {# `and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
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3 J0 J+ Y- T8 N( t$ u0 G4 R$ l3 ICapital Gains Comparison.
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
, c3 T, F+ o3 Q, H  _" C; a' }( yMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see
9 V6 s: c& }8 _2 w1 \0 }  k$ khow these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:
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BC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
AB . . . . . . . .  19.5%
SK . . . . . . . .  22.0%
MB . . . . . . . .  23.2%
ON . . . . . . . .  23.2%
3 n9 G' |6 Y. {/ c# bQC . . . . . . . .  24.1%
$ n2 {9 @& v! I" B! FNB . . . . . . . .  23.4%
" {7 b: y% n. o+ x* WNS . . . . . . . .  24.1%
PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%
/ ]* c  S  ~* R/ c# sNF . . . . . . . .  24.3%

2 o' ?' q7 G( a+ ]% fLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
' x# i- V# z6 x4 ]+ }: Seconomy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.

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8 _  r  n) M& c9 G( E  BOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of
course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion
- s4 T- ^5 ]: N% S6 hwhen you take action as a full REIN Member.

Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
2 H. [4 C( d, yresults in just a few short years.

牛眼熊心

原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
+ f4 e, X* T7 ONEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...

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The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
will be  ...

谢谢分享，你买了他们的membership吗？可以给我多发点文章吗？如果值得我也想加入。

屯民

Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good.
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http://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49
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3 D2 ?2 S& D( W* h0 p/ F  TYou can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.

2 _2 Y4 [8 Y8 v$ W. C- ~$ ihttp://www.albertarein.com/index.asp

今天闲着

嘿，炒访团来了哈！

屯民

You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.

阳光沙滩

很象国内的股评.

醉酒当歌

看吧，每个月才3000人，一年人口才增加4万人，仅仅占全市总人口的4%，房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分（虚涨）。所以，降价是谁也挡不住的。

1 ^$ A3 }6 D# ~! I, v0 j# s***醉酒认为，合理房价上涨=4%/年（人口）+8%/年（自然增长）+10%（经济前景）=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%，所以，降价空间很大，等等吧****
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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...

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With close to 3,000 net new people into
) H" Y1 d  F2 e' y7 H4 ?8 zthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
- H. Z1 x; T& |3 ]; @saw the New Housing Price Index ...

% A( R$ r, N+ k/ h3 D/ M9 \[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]