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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...  C& N9 H  g. v

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9 Y' D7 d, G* S' _6 f2 n0 WThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very% b/ ?) N2 K( ]
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
+ z! ]( J/ `6 }$ s( |( L7 X" C: uwill be going./ e+ D/ k7 H! `5 e4 y6 x& {

% y7 A/ z5 {5 dIt proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
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The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by1 Q) T; M( U( A
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
  i) v& E: B& s0 ]8 l; C' kindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
# g" ~. ^, W) z" \! Y5 CWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
1 I) }; F( E. I7 V% jvalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
9 E! h1 k6 h# W6 u  g/ j3 {, @how much.
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2 F3 ?0 v( O. Z0 X# T6 YFor instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor," R1 D' t6 X( Z4 a
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
6 E, o, Z% d: O) mstrong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest6 j5 A$ N5 _, }" r- S0 G! `
findings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
) e7 X' C) _0 Y' k( M7 _* X8 V* GJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best% U8 `; f) @2 H6 D
markets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact* O6 ]5 f: z+ ]6 ~
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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' ^$ I: X' H' v2 K& }To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the. [4 K+ |  f3 N- x2 ?3 c$ d. ]1 F
market continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into( C' x. k, g, Y9 [
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
1 E9 F: W7 R) I, O' bsaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006).
1 I, a8 C( b1 QThis is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
9 e) h& K% c0 M! Aincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
. s, H7 g8 J- Q( y$ jmonths.    {: Y% y1 R/ ]
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
4 s9 W" m/ `* I3 xcaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
& Y$ l: Z* {+ }: @3 Wfundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that3 o! f. M5 n( t; ?* M
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
' [# Q2 Z& K7 c9 ~) O8 R' Y- Runtil it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all6 z( {2 d6 b! @+ b+ B4 {
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.8 V! ~2 w3 L( v  X4 i4 l; m
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
; p, k- g' B# Z0 F% c2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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$ \: E. a: X1 R# \/ gBy comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
5 D2 M/ L7 Y5 h' @2 d' x$ f3 ^2006 New Housing Price Index for:
% }; R3 g0 t7 K  _6 H
4 g: n; c6 G7 Q0 c# _, HVancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%
. ]1 r, `" E* k! p7 l. D' jSaskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%
% o+ F( o* K6 H6 QLondon . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%7 V% w* P0 j5 s
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%
% v  E* F  p- l9 F" a2 Z# V# \St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%' X/ ^/ f! S" J/ j
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2% U3 @9 g; [) Y8 G$ E1 {3 Q) R
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%
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Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
! O# h$ e$ w4 x- ?1 @9 Agives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
0 _' J4 Y' X" F) Mbe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
* S/ ]0 F+ F/ l4 f* K7 Ronly across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
, T7 {7 X* G& H5 b5 j; e7 ^: g! Dincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to* W3 ~. w: ~- z8 g' ^( ]( G
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.1 w/ p8 z# p( U4 S0 s5 M8 }
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Here are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong% u8 d2 |4 n) {
fundamentals:
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in0 U+ G# B, l; Z( _  Y" I, `2 V9 v
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth
) m9 {( v; t& l0 G: i# A( K: I: Vfor Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
5 O& V9 ^$ u# b( I, O  Zthis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.' `( c1 b4 h- v' b! r' _/ @

7 B3 ^2 r# j) y2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the3 o, K4 c' x4 l& l6 _, i
world.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,& ^  Y, s4 C2 u7 x
the US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
8 O& a% ~8 n& U( F" Nthat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. , r5 C3 c; K9 r. j" F

/ ^+ ?% Q+ S* U/ N8 Z$ \1 m3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment+ A3 v+ t* I" v( ?5 M6 R
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in* m' C8 ]& T& h3 ~
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after
. P- F; K. m, \3 ]Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
5 v+ C0 j+ y" K& D3 z: Tanywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
, U9 w, \" g! F2 I8 X. _3 z2 ]$ uproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the5 [1 E) }0 Q  u: U& v
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
# A, t& e4 T* L8 ubeat it for long term investment.
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4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
# ~5 C, g6 r# {# c' z  Ea sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job
: @0 ^& C  M: E1 ?4 u+ Z2 C6 Kcreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
& u1 s% p, o- x! u" D1 I: p"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
# a2 I* D' G) r6 }January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
% E- {, U; r( y: ~( |+ Q+ d4 g; e
' D6 u2 A* M$ NStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
* E4 Y; l! U7 l9 U5 m+ N( Tfirst half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the
+ p) P+ z4 p/ M0 i2 h; E2 T7 @/ H, }economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of- c6 G3 L7 Q, q/ a( x! m# ~
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not4 D3 r2 J" @2 E
repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with9 |* [4 X  |% Q0 q1 S+ A/ m
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at+ e+ U# B% j9 o1 G9 A
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
$ K+ d; l/ x7 Q6 i  Nof 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in- j- ~2 ~% M  {- q% U9 O6 X9 k! S( Q; H
which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.8 L: n7 h4 e0 W! s( N
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong: c2 H" `$ J6 z3 Z
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed% X% Z8 L  S) D3 ^. o' m
'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
! R% l6 |: E  d' Hyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the
& O- m5 [& }) I, i: @opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the$ ~! W7 O# L) |, T$ y9 P
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared0 C( {# U5 c% R; X/ F/ i- f' _
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
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% R/ N( ^8 ?5 A# C8 o  W# r2 YCapital Gains Comparison.
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: d, ?5 R( a1 s2 x8 K* a4 G4 xKPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
. Q- Y9 ^6 z' G4 g7 L( {. d3 W; HMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see4 y* @" A1 z- ^. r9 Q0 B: ?2 }) b7 l! g
how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:* k$ s2 c: {* N, R0 J. C

, T! N6 d$ o: e" R- K- V2 ]. WBC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
( @/ c6 P8 y& g5 F: s; sAB . . . . . . . .  19.5%2 N' k/ X0 |5 v1 i
SK . . . . . . . .  22.0%
' @6 j8 m' m7 r; E7 ]6 z$ G9 `MB . . . . . . . .  23.2%
- `' j4 Z' R  Y1 P& R9 C% U1 UON . . . . . . . .  23.2%! Z% s  r, K, a2 ~' z1 b" \
QC . . . . . . . .  24.1%8 `- a5 G* A' ~) ^; u( n# d
NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%
$ o9 L  Y* m* B, ~NS . . . . . . . .  24.1%0 D5 `2 e: f7 y: t. i" E' t
PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%
& G' \/ u3 o$ z2 k$ o5 ?NF . . . . . . . .  24.3%- x/ T4 \$ b# u  y! Z( s
$ ~9 S" h* u( p2 u- I* J4 a# ~
Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term. Y2 [8 O2 z/ ]
economy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of6 i) o7 A# y% R, I
their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.
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Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the9 O5 e6 I" |6 C7 Z0 e
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of
8 u& s4 j: _* c6 y3 V; Tcourse, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
5 @  Z! n" I3 \! ?events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion
9 c% \4 J# n0 ywhen you take action as a full REIN Member.' Q/ I7 a7 z; m# G+ `% X" A  S

# T, m" A  w; o' b" bFocus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the" U! M# T3 t# b# C2 i7 ]3 ]
results in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表) g, ^) ]. k# o" d9 h. A# ^
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
& }% Z$ S6 h. O; [# S# T+ |2 x, N4 E: n. Q
6 [7 J9 g& i  F' o. h! x
The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
4 Z" m7 H7 k' H, a7 Ginteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it) W3 d' U/ x9 G: l0 K
will be  ...
9 B/ H) }$ C/ q% A# l) S5 d# h: E0 Z
7 R$ f7 b  b( G% ]  i& W
谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good.
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( I) D: z/ v8 Q& R- ^  V' B' G5 ^7 lhttp://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49
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0 d) @0 O% @9 I5 W* KYou can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.
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. G3 i( s# u# zhttp://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
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发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。
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+ J7 ^9 a* ]  M***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****
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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表( B  I; ]" [' j$ F  Y  s) C' @
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
  \2 K7 y/ I5 ?0 o# ?- z' L+ P! N2 P) ]' N. p% p
, `! u2 H# p# B4 G
With close to 3,000 net new people into
, _* m* v7 T% Q) r' N: Z) tthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we6 T* y! Q0 O7 K; }
saw the New Housing Price Index ...

3 G. X4 U9 {! E: y6 |/ d- N/ @[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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