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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.& }7 L/ d" N7 W( K& G+ G0 v6 a
) p; _; b( l2 x% Ihttp://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.5 ]% n- K* Y5 p1 b" c
" Y. v2 m! B* o# {( v) `) aIn fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.) z( W6 g c( v6 g
) Q5 y4 v. M* g0 B. S1 n! sWhy might it be a good time to sell?
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.7 x. ]! w* y. `! \1 X7 H |0 I$ e t
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.; Y- }6 S/ e0 ~3 G+ T
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"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.0 k) t% [) Y( W$ L; A
+ L8 X9 y6 W& G$ E# ^+ d9 CBurleton knows how they feel.$ [) s2 o" q$ I X* f/ c
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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6 z2 n5 `& b2 {4 z+ u: H* XWhile there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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) i9 ^0 T/ S( B" ^, r, ]With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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/ F+ R% r$ _) ^, L' WAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.: g! T7 a( V- d. |8 T- N
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Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.& p4 S; o% z1 |) M; m1 P
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.' e: b4 ?! A& M, ]/ I
- o, q3 u: N4 H3 A5 G) ZDavid Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.0 U& |0 `! v* ~
. Q* B4 `5 B3 T- @, D' C"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.8 P+ V2 y4 T) y& Y2 u- b
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing." _$ f" Z3 b9 k9 r/ v4 I( H
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.$ B0 b& ]! k" n- [. h
% c" D# A8 v: B$ a' M$ VBut then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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