市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
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Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
- d- S, D0 _, @James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
4 f9 s) v" u& H3 USignature Global Advisors
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3 }; p$ t! N0 D* a6 ?; VBackground remarks
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
; ~3 w1 \, o+ C, f( S9 aas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
7 R. ^% p4 ^, B, e+ e% ^ Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
, D* K1 T' x( J/ Q9 W. iadjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
* B( j) V0 l# ?% B1 ~8 w% s: Y% v! Qsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
1 _7 Z. [$ w1 M6 e! x( ` We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
: ^) b' ^. S. E. Z% j, _ Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
) _5 k8 z9 F6 S% n( E& @ Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
& ?3 u. `2 v. D7 O6 @; Dreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

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Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
* _+ P9 i, [* R& was funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( A4 J2 c3 ^0 B$ O! R) Simpose liquidation values.
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
0 b0 G& R, ?0 u8 k5 r+ M The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
) \. n* B) h  u: pSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
( P) I, C0 Y& @. ~! [8 [( t High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
7 \+ X6 E. c) O3 Bthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* L/ }  O7 P2 W& Daccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
' R& x& |- r+ g  F6 } Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
finding financing.
5 Z0 v& R, t) Y7 j, x Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
; k4 g4 }. A9 w* u# w8 }- H, l7 Bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
! M& e/ O0 w/ f) W7 }' H3 ngoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
6 D" L" ~3 w2 J# Mbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
% I9 \# ?# s" ]$ n Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
emerging markets have no problem with funding.

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European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
, @" g+ w) f8 E% K5 S# R- u As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
5 `+ c6 {6 Q5 Y2 j; Y1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
8 l3 j+ @3 f# B+ C5 Y2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
/ G4 @" G& Y2 Idebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' t$ w9 V( q9 d" jbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
' h: c/ S1 M+ U$ P4 N4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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4 G$ }1 L+ T% o* R' |Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
2 _$ \" P% E' q% c7 a" H4 sbut that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
- [' E' g/ m) z2 T5 a& ]- s; T, NItalian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
$ V2 B) H# L0 U0 x' J We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

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