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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。/ a( |" R3 G3 A2 P7 p

' a* O( b  j, y" V7 [) DMarket Commentary" b1 E( q! W( u6 H  y2 z
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
  f( c2 E9 j8 _. q* M7 kJames Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
$ D% \0 L8 ]/ [" E$ Y' L* w; RSignature Global Advisors
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' m4 M+ A% y% b. eBackground remarks7 W6 d  c. f% g$ g- n0 y. u
 Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are2 V9 V, f+ `3 A. \. x# o% ?
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.  Y. q( `0 Z7 E" R9 N! t! }9 i
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
: K6 f, [: B* L9 F- Xadjustments.! L; a9 q& M$ |  o
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social: T9 ?8 x9 J& {! `' L  G
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.; N9 j2 k) H" [3 X3 W; I1 @2 h
 Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are, I1 M& E" T( W+ o% m! t& N& {
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
" q* _8 x9 p  W* I# X: n We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these: V3 P! C& y7 }! x& C6 e
adjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.6 `  g  N0 p* g2 C: S1 f0 R; m+ ?
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s. \5 b& O; q6 m# a3 D: D) T
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.' C+ M4 K0 m; g2 Z
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
8 }% q" f- j' O/ u; f7 L5 M0 n Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have" `# z- M2 J# D1 I2 u7 a  s* F
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation( P4 J1 G( R, i8 |6 k. g4 y0 B
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
1 X6 d' w8 D0 o! B$ \as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may& {# `) I0 H* ^$ l/ s
impose liquidation values.; @8 @, K$ i# X
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In6 ~) X1 S2 r: d5 Z7 I
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.5 V0 q* _+ J% {8 n; z0 }3 a! q
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension+ [, J! ?' `3 \" A3 u& U( ]2 k
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
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A look at credit markets( I) t; Z! ~3 P: U/ y5 j8 h
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in* g$ h! K2 f4 F  Z6 a& k# Y
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
0 E. G$ q/ ]2 J$ F  g, X5 j High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
, {& d; j8 B1 G$ w. O+ rthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
; T1 a) _  n7 h, M% h# [4 a; ^& Vbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 w$ t: T* |$ U4 P( ~- g+ y8 K
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade3 O! N& g7 E& x4 `2 U# F2 L
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are6 G- y. l$ |! c. @- O9 W
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
6 y; X% D& i' k5 K% S( u: u' b' g Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble6 ?2 b# X1 A. B% `$ j4 M
finding financing.+ z) r$ r: Z  H  d  r- G. g' s
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they' }/ {7 C4 e- d; f$ y8 M% m
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
: ]9 Z4 E% }4 Q/ [3 M- E- { Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
' C7 _& y: S0 q$ u$ _% b2 xis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
2 H5 G, B& P: L* V( ?going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
5 _7 e+ ?& u) p) p4 lbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place./ {3 d* b6 i3 i7 `+ h: \& f
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain. C3 s- V$ @( M' ^" `7 v, s
today.$ p: D! }2 C. ^) n0 n
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in# O2 s, T/ K; L9 W( \# `
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda4 i! Z9 f8 b1 P  @0 @" W
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for$ U3 n( v% t( r) [& y
the Greek default.
2 O6 H. i( @; ?5 c+ }! i As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:/ w$ Y$ P6 s  K6 J7 {' W0 c5 L# w, T+ c
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
+ e: b0 _* |+ h% o9 D( w2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
. F8 t; H% |: A  A$ J, gdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.4 l. a& B9 U0 ?  g5 y
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
2 S/ A3 ]2 C- ]6 N- J( r% Mbanks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
- _6 B2 {8 n- ?1 F# D1 h4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.7 }: e5 q6 T. X
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Beyond Greece
2 d5 Z( U  Z: N" F( [% X! A! f( m, L& n The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),$ X/ H9 [# \; Q+ l3 K
but that was before Italy.2 w9 h. L1 w1 E
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
- Q1 j1 J# O, t1 `7 ^% x1 C9 M! [ It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the: Z6 d8 P! m' W
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
4 w8 A7 j. F9 W We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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