No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.

In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.

3 F0 o$ r+ p7 t% k' }- F. _0 }"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."

+ R9 z8 H# N0 D9 I  nAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.

; H$ ]  l) d. D& {# n"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
+ W' D# z0 b) w7 \8 v" @, ~4 y
"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."

# l1 V1 Z4 \- WSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.
7 T' P3 V- |6 k7 c+ O$ \
( {% w  u  H7 B9 a+ W8 y- }- _Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
5 {% q- \$ C  K; y. I4 e+ [7 s
"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
  ~) U, u/ @: V- @( `. T
9 Y+ c! r0 ~; O: _6 I  {当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
9 D+ _/ K- o7 N7 c2 M" m3 o看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。
. x) Z9 J3 d' C" B6 p
  D- v0 ^+ e5 {5 ]7 t8 V4 r# v[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]