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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com" N: {! Z" d* Q' r* |
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1 e; L T9 R: RThu, January 11, 20072 K& p7 z7 N! [5 h1 {& S4 H/ f, F
; c! i0 d7 i" vPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007& e- U7 z1 {; E* S- F2 K' R+ k+ u, I
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN. V/ z6 w9 J5 j; o5 i( m" u
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4 C1 l5 t$ J$ E5 x, \They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. / j. E+ r3 L& @" \4 @. _
0 N, C; T+ C+ b4 |Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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( p7 H) q5 X4 } \But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 6 ^' y. }( z7 V7 l+ t' C1 K
+ V6 A" I! Q1 N1 O: V. gDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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5 N6 n: }( c7 ?"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." : e" ?4 l5 ]6 j' S! F: C; R
5 \; M R4 x S1 ?0 R9 SShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. * r0 c- @! q3 l/ L
; x. [( f6 Q1 F* ?"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 5 g# }2 X0 V+ V' W/ V
' S9 H9 c/ M9 C* e9 iCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 0 U. p3 a9 y6 `. X
4 E3 ^( D# \/ v$ T& y! J+ F1 A"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." + G, o7 `, Z( N! Z: ?- f; `3 @1 O
1 K z2 D! c8 }, F: BStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 2 k* T, K3 Q+ W
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 6 S* C% m' C; a6 @$ {! P
5 P$ ~6 N) w* A _; P"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 4 [5 f; _; ^$ ~7 p1 O9 ]" l2 x. a! G
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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6 `! c/ G8 G8 H1 x2 l' u A2 OOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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( R& c" d" h4 U k. _$ L"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 1 V" `+ ^9 j6 N' V
' D# h: M$ P1 fSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. . ]/ r" v1 {6 z5 m) x) f, i* q) I
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. - x) i4 ^' E- m( b, @+ m# u' x
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Let the good times roll.
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