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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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5 e* ?: V1 @$ L2 T2 Q In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007% o6 i1 m# q( d5 M8 y6 X/ A
' H! M/ v& Z6 V) C7 e# a2 ?8 ?Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007 [* u$ z% H. n! [4 f2 b0 @) V3 @
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN5 c& m& z d2 _/ P; y2 q( f
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z& t/ ?: {" ]4 O& q4 ?& ]They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 5 s1 h) L! p6 m. k! t0 x
; [" _; y$ I EMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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' G" Z1 i/ ~2 i1 F; bBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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8 i0 D# ]1 b& R, F X" w* rDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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j z9 L( z' [ H- g7 G1 R"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. & o4 h8 j! J" k. @! V
' _% T! ^! l6 w3 H L"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. . e8 Z' x9 z4 Q( Z9 d, }& Z% j. J
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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8 M; c0 d; X2 b* V6 v"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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7 i$ q4 g+ h' H* g xStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ! G- w" F1 X+ r& B) S! }/ F4 ]
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. . M, Q% N5 L. W( n9 P( P
. ~/ X) d4 h/ e' ?5 Q4 x"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 2 A6 Q2 G8 ]8 U1 E. j2 V2 \; G" p
: ^0 Z4 ~1 R: p3 O: F+ u! W"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. & e( I" Z/ D) T- m
8 G* ]0 y# i0 A1 \- bNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT * @/ [6 k: F) g% `- V( b! B
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." # G6 i* }9 n' K) o
4 q2 J, V) S+ ` S( b! K6 c0 ~Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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' l. W# x$ T7 T4 S: K6 C2 m9 IOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 8 W. Z% }2 Q8 _. T1 o5 j* @
/ P4 t0 k4 h9 F: WHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. # ?: ~ Q* |3 v- D( }- s
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. - A. Z/ V+ I/ L- d: D2 z {8 @
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 4 n3 J a2 F8 \( ^2 |# f
% A: f' g( z6 u"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. / Q4 p8 j. n& I8 p% J1 k
& T% v' q+ r ]) h3 \2 C* t$ ULet the good times roll. 8 n0 l/ C' i' F4 Z) A% v2 v
- |9 h7 v R, RPrevious story: Bottom Line1 q4 ]' Y9 E* k6 G. T( w
Next story: Building permits hit record
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