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5 ?) t: x# r( I Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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: M& Y. e; h' @3 n In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
, d1 t: }3 P9 c- g, l9 U5 fBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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4 ^5 R( F$ P& X5 P* wMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 8 J6 C/ ~1 ~+ R0 ~7 C
' ?. \+ Y& f% s& Z& nBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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* a) n' C* x: u5 r8 M: ?Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 9 {: X% b$ g7 j8 m! a# x
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 6 u0 Y/ `) h$ E% |$ X
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. : s' M) }. o; a" {
2 ~9 U5 a) E- o& b: u& y$ ]/ |"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. ' ^# E3 U# y* C6 T1 b, ~: B
1 u# H+ ^, T$ B: N: fCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ; d* v1 _9 Y h7 `% L5 ]3 E
) T; @2 ]) c0 A- N$ i"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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4 ~9 h" s- D7 D3 w: T"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 2 L+ p! ?9 ^+ D; L: ~
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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3 Z4 U6 }: G/ T$ c9 A# NOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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& A u) P: ?0 U% j# WHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. - C! Y: \4 `2 j9 B! J+ a$ \
8 q8 m, u$ J8 G1 n) m"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. ( f% m8 [; b; o
+ U' a3 r/ [" fPrevious story: Bottom Line: P+ S' l- Y% N6 R
Next story: Building permits hit record! y, b% e* ?1 \7 B; Q
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