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% @8 G2 n9 O. w, U- r3 I Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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, p$ c3 E& I. h/ N& E# c: S, m In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
: M6 X; x$ F7 ?7 b4 _1 ]By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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, V1 Q+ a+ F- tThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. ( J) P1 U+ U" `% G( r; r& L: ?- a7 r
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. ! {1 s" _5 E' E3 s
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. $ j& _8 E! k* ^: I; L
" h1 w7 M% V# lDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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7 v" h8 t/ X1 U' l/ R6 k"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ' ]: |( g- t. R* D) P; R6 w
2 s# \0 @8 Q7 ?2 c"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. * e5 o. O9 D$ H$ G' ~6 |8 X
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. % ?" R# H; n9 g9 g
3 I' n+ [) X9 r2 ]7 e& g4 d"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." * d! N( p1 e( v$ D3 t9 Z8 w
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. * s+ Q! j9 R* J4 \
/ E% e: q( T6 Q; J"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. : r9 ?! b. p- \6 ^
8 A% ]0 J5 v$ t' W6 ONO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 4 B( [) L! t0 H- X% m
; C/ J5 I) {, L Y$ n% KExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. . D1 R% U- \% o& ^
: h! P5 w3 ?- o: g9 r OOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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3 w F! s B# S$ V& o- @' f( JHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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) H; h" D& _0 C3 b' x# c2 y# e2 b"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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K1 R; S4 \$ D0 HYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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8 X8 q5 ~1 T. D7 x5 U; e0 t"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 4 Y% G4 ~. I7 W
0 z1 O) K# k: ]% ^, B9 j FLet the good times roll. # F( k. f4 g. k' W; C! Y
/ E" x% Q& s0 C/ KPrevious story: Bottom Line) M! r, p0 ~- s& X' X$ L2 `) ]: P
Next story: Building permits hit record! \# S1 F {, f0 \1 K9 t; m
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