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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com7 c# l, X% J5 n" R+ s! E1 {( q
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.+ B7 L; Z6 E% L: u* c' g" @
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5 a6 C; J! f# L: G8 g4 B6 z5 FThu, January 11, 2007( @* v/ v# b) E7 a
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
$ {/ r+ S9 n% ^! t2 {; g4 _By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN8 ~' F6 J$ x. L. G* a
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' k7 R) F( m% S$ i$ Z9 hThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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% Z0 Q( Z+ b+ Q9 x6 [( `3 i- c- WBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 6 K6 A& M5 K* G
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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% ?' W' E( t9 i* m7 k8 O+ b2 v"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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, J. s( b4 ?. {"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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C$ b8 a( z* i7 bCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 1 T$ `% b1 U( T% v
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." - ]4 i. a% C1 {! e! p
* Q% @' E; O) e7 y; E0 ^Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 0 M h2 b$ r, P+ V0 ]0 Y6 f7 q
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ( n5 r9 S: h0 \' q* I3 `" O+ r
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. , T5 I& |) h7 _; [# E4 _# v
0 j0 V# e1 i* E( X8 J7 M"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT ) k6 ^; v) n1 m( x& M: ~. `8 F: |
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." / t5 E! w: w9 T. @ f
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. # v W! a( u& W' W
- B/ @4 M. F' \) j1 S9 Q1 Z$ f' l& ?3 XOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. ( ~: x& Q8 E7 I- Z9 l8 ?) [! }
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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) Z, q0 T: K6 {$ ^. ^So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. - K1 J; d+ g2 k, _0 m
2 M5 S* H& Y) ^' }# o$ k4 G0 _( `2 uYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 8 K- ^# A( F. I9 T
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line
) ^+ ?2 _5 Q" _) B: _7 bNext story: Building permits hit record
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