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+ S$ X2 A1 K) l- c Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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+ ?, m2 P# N% k- Z In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.; ~: ]/ M* X z+ V) E: _
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: x+ Y2 a$ @( _5 m0 KThu, January 11, 2007
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, O0 o7 K8 c0 p; Z6 ]Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
. l% @# M3 K3 `' q& i) wBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN2 `' } M& O$ d/ B$ d
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( S6 u( {( _. a: Y# e# E4 z7 P( @# \1 TThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. , Q. P, ?, q4 t4 Y
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 9 d( u) J# v s* [7 q0 m, y
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." ( J$ ]: N ]: l) M/ m) b( v) Q
" i, x4 j. c" k: {1 IShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. / P* `4 S% Q, S1 s" d" X- S
: R; X4 L$ }6 R! |" f/ m; h- s"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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- ~4 s$ Z* C! y" @7 @) dCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ; \1 y0 K0 W2 t0 C0 M
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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0 z7 D; e! L ~4 K: t9 qStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 1 w! E; j* J5 s; H5 f) {5 b
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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, d( t& n1 Z2 \8 B0 I# Q' G* |"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. : M. s8 ~) C6 ]/ s3 R. B+ A
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. # {$ K: `$ O2 b8 r3 b9 h) G6 ^" i
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. / H+ ?* y+ {/ k3 F. J" o
2 A6 Y, e, J# B& sOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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7 H9 G8 r3 M% B: E& |( n: z8 M0 TSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. " z) A1 J- E i
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. 4 G* u! V* y$ V) f4 u$ v
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
