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: ^5 m/ E) G6 W: W& l0 C- \! a Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com1 ]+ T; W& r* l9 w4 V
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) j9 g# ]" A$ E' r! c8 n0 iPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
: N7 q ?) h6 u8 Q0 E3 SBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 1 {4 c. B1 {( U m- s, k
# `5 s0 ~3 D KBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 5 ], S1 `* Z( d
) U& | i: |: Z: }, m7 IDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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3 V& H' k0 f. \8 D2 k; A( J"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 6 ?8 W% z& b( R3 Y8 b0 i
+ z. r& s5 b0 ?" ?: jShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 1 N+ m. q/ {( w
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 1 ~$ y; d6 G& L' V: E8 K
3 } d7 s- K9 o9 \$ I+ KStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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+ ^! }2 H0 K; j. l"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. # [+ |+ P& K) \/ B0 Q8 Q! c# n
9 A+ i* z3 r7 m: t0 p9 l# m"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. % u" r1 z( S5 t; F# D1 I. D
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" }5 \& M" R# h$ F! ]He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 6 e9 f0 V! v. b* a; d3 j: b
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. & z8 r! x5 o. L- s( k1 f
# {; E) }9 X9 g1 xOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ! Z { ^: B4 Y( V$ V, `% S
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ! I9 j% g. M% @0 Z
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 7 [7 r: Z9 r, V" ~ S" H- z
; w- X( W! _+ F5 M: Z% kYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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! W, X. l$ Z a' m4 g3 v1 d"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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# m5 z. O- a3 ?9 R; xLet the good times roll. % e; ~, B! R* X1 I
0 Z% H* n/ ^: I5 A( V& m; I2 h, tPrevious story: Bottom Line
; H0 ~! E$ }4 T+ x" ^Next story: Building permits hit record
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