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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts, ~! F% r7 `' b0 q( n' b
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET/ f) u) L3 N% F% e# C0 L, F
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants." w! H7 K& |% \9 v" B' W5 U& [' e
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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) |) L- T6 W# D: a0 o' H# y, a5 LOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario./ a8 K: N+ D& ~% o
* ?$ G* H: d# N" p3 RThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province./ B, V9 R+ _" Y) [( Z0 d
; _. U# a9 E& j# @4 O9 ]In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”# |* H. L+ u) y- O4 T
" j5 `" {. |2 v9 V( cMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.* e' l/ K( K2 l; A$ a3 |# g2 i
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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! k; K0 t6 @7 f" q+ Z. dIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.3 S' {0 {% e+ H& t" \$ T
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7 j) O) c2 l: W% a$ C2 [( |' lCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns+ Q) f1 s% m% ~. D7 x0 k
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The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over* C1 m7 q6 t8 K2 T: R; U- J& I
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7 f N$ |7 u& z& ^8 DThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend. f' R8 o, t7 S* B$ v
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.- a( b* T$ D8 {' b; Y; i" W$ A* ?
' u% l" G. L( L, M4 dCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year./ }: d5 J( ]* f4 S4 o- S) Q
^/ b" ^8 q; HContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.+ o7 A& o$ ^& h& J! n: N
( Y) `) c0 t: D# yThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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2 U; v0 V* P* }8 t! sMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.2 O3 P" b: U- o$ f7 p6 `! i1 u
7 z; s" f: n9 B; CThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.1 Q R% X0 |3 \. J- a$ W2 R
0 O+ W5 \! Q, r7 p6 V7 BTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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. ]9 ]+ ^; J3 M& t n$ y! d9 g7 ~“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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