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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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+ `# }" q. M# A3 LThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
2 z5 x( i8 V( O; X8 {4 R6 t' \. p5 ]& E# Qinteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it4 n1 z- e& e$ D7 N1 N4 v, T
will be going.
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. P6 G4 o$ F) e1 ~! f" yIt proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
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The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by3 W: y6 |! _+ ?7 a* W3 ^
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
2 Q$ V4 {8 t0 s3 j1 Dindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
( Z, e4 V, S: ^3 G- T, l( u% uWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
8 J- k) m& ?9 ?6 {7 ivalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by% y6 g8 L* o* w) A
how much.
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
) t. X, \( s: Y4 V6 tOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very) f+ ]) ^7 M, [" ~) s+ [' v" `
strong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest* d# ^3 ~# i; e" h; |
findings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
+ o4 C! Q1 G  |! n% Y, JJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best7 ~6 c1 z3 X* i' S
markets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact! C" y3 x4 S7 m) f! I+ ?
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region.& b4 E: i9 y6 C4 K

) u: w5 M! \# J1 fTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the. ?$ G. [2 c8 T
market continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into; ?$ \1 [$ E  h) q, w" C
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
* l- L4 z3 u4 Dsaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). $ w: [9 B0 F/ ^8 r4 x- W
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
) P( W' S* f& J, I( h) gincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
' k7 ]4 E" m7 P9 e3 t9 fmonths.  
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5 d0 H+ B/ E% g7 ~! I$ S1 YComparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting$ S2 j6 B' E; q2 t
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying! [& r+ }- P; p
fundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that# |$ U. i4 S/ O9 x1 J; c
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait, E# R  C+ d6 i7 B2 r2 w
until it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all/ D, X9 Q# z9 s1 ^' [1 |* _7 K
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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9 x2 ?3 ]/ {* x6 [# B% z% iBy the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
! _) k! b( k. G+ X2005 to June 2006), also great news.# G1 ]* z/ i7 }* w/ ^7 n" B0 B

& G4 f% k  c) O1 l- z7 z6 Q2 z* H! FBy comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June; e, s# G- Y. {. o; ^9 k
2006 New Housing Price Index for:1 P% r/ I6 \# M6 r! X* h, v
8 \2 n# J' e0 z' Y
Vancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%
8 f- n, l* b. l) RSaskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%
( Z/ k& O$ J- T( ?: U% @London . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%
' Y, ^4 F! f. M  dHamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%
2 b( Y3 s% x$ s" Q" {St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
9 X- p! h$ k( l7 F! b! w$ }Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2% o1 L5 C1 O$ J1 X! N- ~! p9 j2 H
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%- |" p3 n& I. C* I6 K

- p2 U. D& {3 c' `* b0 I4 C! J0 f% jFundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
- s& v/ p+ i+ `$ d0 C4 z( j. `gives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
: R( k4 {0 ^1 A4 E' ?: hbe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
" k* o+ _2 x& V  p8 N- bonly across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
0 |, n4 }- E$ {" K2 X: |increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
% l  ]1 q2 z) s2 M  ~9 Zdrop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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1 p9 K" P: A2 w* [# m! xHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
" }6 d- u! C/ \& ^/ M# gfundamentals:- }: [( i; {, g5 g# K
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in' z3 G: P5 A. N- ]" j, g5 B+ }0 Q
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth6 {3 B$ N/ [, G! `- `' d* `0 ~1 I$ D
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
* s3 ^6 C" I& e3 @. }. xthis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing./ x1 |8 J3 E1 Q0 H

- ^4 U" T9 P& y* ]; n+ W2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the4 {2 S5 g0 q) R2 a3 [% O; W6 k
world.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,! {6 N$ r6 {7 G$ o# ^3 p
the US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
" R$ k* t  K8 l9 r, `9 ^; othat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. 6 i2 }. W; z5 C, R" _
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3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment! S2 G7 G9 b" p; o
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
* F  {: t- j7 I$ O' ~5 V, f, WDublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after
" J; e4 z' D; G' `5 [Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
( w9 O! c% a& z9 w( ~2 {anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
: g. }* d# t9 S# V. Fproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
& h) {3 p. B' fpolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can3 \1 r" E. ^" L
beat it for long term investment.) M% B: Z8 h3 X- j

6 V5 E" L( \+ M% X+ D' w6 z. R4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely0 `3 x& a/ b6 |/ q8 q
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job& d( \# @) \; a/ l' ~4 v* q
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)' {6 G7 N6 Z. [4 I! f, @
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
9 x4 D, p# `5 S3 fJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... . N2 O5 ~; l4 n% p

5 L0 W! ]7 ]) X1 Z. d$ k% TStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the3 K5 ?% a; z6 w' `  M3 @
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the
. W" `  w9 E7 T$ ?+ Deconomy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of. u; b1 W8 I3 G. s  F- T
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
9 R5 _5 ~/ E- o" ?! A# l+ |repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
- @3 Z2 y+ w" {. Q4 X. q6 h1 ~) [its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
2 r" M% B! ^: F1 Vits trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
/ k- }8 N' B2 q; b7 n1 f: Z0 Eof 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in
8 D! X' Y0 G+ A( swhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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" V$ q# r8 N* ]* N7 {, fIn other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong5 T( D. A) h0 B4 K/ b
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
# G3 i# o, z9 c6 T5 E8 S! J'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
; I. j, A4 K& d4 X: M7 pyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the+ \6 X5 C" g5 o( {% m; _$ B, g
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the
& Q% T* Y% t/ j5 w* q0 E'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
: ~8 O" L6 a: c4 F" z, ?1 }and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.  O$ f0 C, |" u, S8 m! n
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" ]" w! p% q" p' y$ K4 ]
Capital Gains Comparison.; ?0 C- D# H6 C: n( N5 ]- ^0 O
+ X- N: c- o1 v
KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
0 P- M3 L$ V" E0 OMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see, m! K* ]* h) r& K! R
how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:
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& g- A) }) v6 j/ b4 Q. q' TBC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
6 F3 n( y/ a) E+ V1 s2 DAB . . . . . . . .  19.5%9 x; n4 r) ]+ {: N8 o+ A- C
SK . . . . . . . .  22.0%
5 [0 P8 R! ?2 l3 o- GMB . . . . . . . .  23.2%
: b, R7 y5 O) ~" h2 ~$ g" |ON . . . . . . . .  23.2%4 G- Y2 s5 l- H
QC . . . . . . . .  24.1%1 ?# a4 s' c1 E4 }5 A% i
NB . . . . . . . .  23.4%
; P) ]$ i3 k+ ?! A6 `: JNS . . . . . . . .  24.1%' g8 u1 E- R5 \/ ]- V2 f& \7 J, d# u
PE . . . . . . . .  23.7%# ]* E/ r: }: v
NF . . . . . . . .  24.3%
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Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term% ^) j( k1 S& C# T" D
economy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of* R: K7 u4 W$ n- Q2 Q
their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.) V: ]  S  Y6 Z: O3 R

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Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
/ M) P4 z6 K; d8 q* C. bopportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of6 G4 P9 |, z: s+ U5 D3 d! h
course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'* i! T- n" D3 ?( J7 }
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion
8 X& L! ?* x2 K! Dwhen you take action as a full REIN Member.( }. N5 I/ M/ H6 Q2 ?
/ k1 I8 y7 Q2 [; c9 `
Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the, D$ [& Q" [6 h/ L0 _+ b7 D# }
results in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
% n: P% k9 n6 a7 ]" {9 |" j7 m) QNEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...! S* Y) S% w' {7 v# u

4 ^4 \8 [+ n+ {0 f. Z+ Q
+ D* e2 V' t3 G0 P8 ~4 N8 JThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very; y% ~, E; z! ^( ]9 a
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it( o8 g1 P8 O# c" H% e, d
will be  ...

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谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good.
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; p. J4 J2 t1 ~http://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49
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/ ]8 @9 R2 E) ?8 R/ WYou can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.; c# s. y+ k. [) b# b! U" t4 L

8 c- a4 @+ o6 _6 Y7 Q5 @3 e, Thttp://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
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发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
理袁律师事务所
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发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。2 o: j+ j# U( G3 B* X
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***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****0 F7 d( ~8 O2 A

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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表0 X: ]$ L: C" N* t7 X
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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3 G5 ~4 ?1 Z1 O- n$ L" l
With close to 3,000 net new people into( R+ w: `9 Z; s$ k) Q
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
" J' A  K. V" a- L7 Nsaw the New Housing Price Index ...
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[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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