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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖.
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http://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html0 Q, s# Q3 @7 L* p9 D3 Y' `
' x7 O4 c9 N9 {9 e+ p2 |8 xOTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.! M) s" m1 w7 s3 M5 X1 f. [# p, J
; H4 [ I8 f1 L& NPeople generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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n/ i) @" d1 W% n/ @In fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.
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Why might it be a good time to sell?* K: G, k# l5 f2 c R
. {1 b+ v8 i) {0 O" ?At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.
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- o4 }' |* Q3 G( o. V"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.. r1 P+ @5 ?% D1 a
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"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.3 x0 d+ E$ r/ W# Z
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The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.* ?2 }7 ^" x1 r- a% N, v
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Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.- Q# s' R f, c5 x) `# A) {
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Burleton knows how they feel.7 t3 g; x2 Y! V5 T% z
" g' b/ d* I) s6 \ u"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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: B! y. O% g4 }While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.6 }9 W. `( d6 E1 l8 `, M+ _* e
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With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.
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And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home., s) g7 ~, B- \& N) k) Q3 h4 \
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Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.2 ^5 m+ `0 s. Y8 d
4 Y0 u- m. L: u: \! s' dDavid Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky. E- t/ |& g* L9 h- ~4 @
( j) @0 T% Y( f2 I# t3 z6 ~. y( p"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.3 H! `: d+ o+ ?$ N, y$ g3 z
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"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing." [: J4 |9 L( d
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.
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% G' T+ u9 F; s, uBut then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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