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澳洲, 奧地利, 加拿大, 捷克, 芬蘭, 愛爾蘭, 荷蘭, 新西蘭, 瑞士
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12811197, N _. k2 f g( f, f" o k
/ [. p0 }% K. C: X7 k7 D22 March 2011 Last updated at 03:31 ET Share this pageFacebookTwitter ShareEmail Print Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study saysBy Jason Palmer- b. o @! D5 Y
* r X* E) y) nScience and technology reporter, BBC News, Dallas
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A study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.5 }7 T/ ]) `* k$ a0 q5 ]
) y$ C1 `9 W9 s( q* t" N$ YThe study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.8 K! Q0 C5 W: e9 S$ u4 j. o0 }0 P
: W9 y% q. j/ {% ?) X' w) EThe team\'s mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.$ A1 l$ l- z% `$ J* x( `
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The result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.
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The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.0 j" T; @8 k3 V: \1 J
: l4 ?; n& {' @: B0 A. p1 ITheir means of analysing the data invokes what is known as nonlinear dynamics - a mathematical approach that has been used to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part.0 o2 [- S+ s& d: K0 Q
3 ~( |# g# d3 y6 bOne of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.
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At its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the \"utility\" of speaking one instead of another.
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\"The idea is pretty simple,\" said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona.0 R% Q+ ^: S' J0 ?7 M8 X' Z
; _1 W2 a: T0 {\"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility., t" E# S. E5 y( a, L0 B2 n
% }6 X J( y. n) ^/ D1 x\"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there\'s some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not.\"- q# B) X# S! V8 M
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Dr Wiener continued: \"In a large number of modern secular democracies, there\'s been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%.\"
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( M* ?8 B. ~9 X( p. fThe team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the \"non-religious\" category.
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They found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them. }' `; m3 x+ u) Y
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And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.+ A9 U1 v% p! i6 G& H& {9 p
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However, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a \"network structure\" more representative of the one at work in the world.
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\"Obviously we don\'t really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society,\" he said.. S# g5 }+ d# m" P4 R
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However, he told BBC News that he thought it was \"a suggestive result\". 7 l9 Y/ C5 ?* h B1 ~
e& l9 M" Q' Y1 P5 |# A- m2 p\"It\'s interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.
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\"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out.\" |
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