固定利率会回调吗？ 这是一个问题

年轻的心

Yields Down. Rates, Not So Much

Canada’s 5-year bond yield closed near a 3-week low today, settling at 2.43%.  That’s down from its June 10 high of 2.81%.


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While there’s been a noticeable dip in yields, there hasn’t been much reduction in 5-year fixed mortgage rates (which track yields).  
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' f# S. z" x3 a% ?5 cAt the most, we’ve seen a few non-bank lenders drop 5-year rates by 0.10% lately.  The Big 5 banks have not lowered advertised rates at all.
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  ~! j8 H' g3 ?7 KOne lender sent an email today suggesting that banks have changed their focus from aggregating clients to profitability. Given the banks just went through a vicious market share war, they may be less inclined to discount rates now with only four months to hit their year-end income targets.
The lender went on to say: “There may be some movement soon, but banks are ensuring bond prices stay consistent before they make a move.”
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Smokie

appleman

Who knows? But now the prime rate is in the history bottom for sure.

年轻的心

Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?

2 ^6 c2 B- b2 Z3 C. W: i# \ Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.
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: h3 L: ]7 }6 Y" O6 R. U/ h& a! d6 mSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.
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4 S: V. _4 x# l+ q0 ~% ^BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it’s because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
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2 D! S0 Z, c/ E9 Q# i: H6 qHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."

The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.

# b' U! D, T1 N( l: i; G% \1 N% RIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That’s a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.

$ O9 X, X' ~' n2 ~; d: N* sBut remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous.  While you’re waiting, rates can move the wrong way—quickly.  

. d" d, K3 e# v4 k' z/ YYou’re usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.).  Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.

今晚打老虎

到底涨了还是降了呢？
2 V6 F4 v: f6 Q' m9 |' _0 `6 k5年锁定利率现在差不多都到5％了把？