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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?
8 G6 C% |" e# oPublished: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET& p& A/ x( u8 A" A: r' u
Canadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine/ K' ^$ [; N7 C+ [% W$ f* X
, F8 ~" ^: b/ @ FCALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.& _5 s" ^1 _6 d
2 q$ n9 ^5 j& P% B Y: k. o8 oThe average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.
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Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.% n. C% C; R. h6 z6 a
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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# S: D( ~# J0 p6 \4 ~But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.
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"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.5 i- `0 T$ y6 m9 v4 b( N
, e. W+ J q" q3 m, B9 G$ G; Z* {$ o"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."
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! x% V( X9 j5 G# K5 } F9 }In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.
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Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.
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7 T9 R& x. i& d. o' EThe price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.% A* Q/ Z2 { b
: [/ f0 ~9 d! x1 r6 rThe February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.
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8 U* g' R' m+ l5 W6 m- y"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.$ e B7 q- a) k
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Industry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.1 I$ ~6 a2 Q. ~* f7 i/ }) }6 v! f
' a9 c: i- x" jBut those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.
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' G; }- h4 g: o! _7 T+ r"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.5 s9 C. t- i& _" T$ I+ f3 k1 ~
+ r. c9 o! P) P) T$ @6 T8 J"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."( |- W' S3 |6 `6 P, q
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.) E: T1 }2 r- Y
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"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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* @" v- \7 I0 o6 Y' ?( k$ q2 G5 g: QHirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.. n# s" t0 c" C3 }3 l* S% p: t
$ K( _" z. m9 Q! W+ y# {) Z"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.
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$ c. b; y. j$ L2 X" s"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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C$ F0 q, v0 ^4 J/ o1 Y! c: t/ g"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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