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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?
! E+ M. ?# \" P R, w, A5 dPublished: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET1 y4 j7 f# \1 E. W# r. D
Canadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine
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4 N: L v" P4 c" CCALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.9 I3 V! T! H* I+ R0 s
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The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.! n! \0 v2 W2 C" R6 {2 C& o7 y
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Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.& K# s6 q$ l, }" y G9 o
9 O% o! J3 X4 F7 n. T"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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: Z, H8 Q1 X- k" d6 FBut Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.% o; @( \! P) }$ y6 Z
1 e( I1 B5 I: E% j ]+ b, Q3 k"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.
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- x2 x6 t4 {5 q( w) \, k"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."$ c( B( \' U$ U. J" C7 ~7 E" N6 D
9 ]' `' D5 v+ m3 D# k2 D& [In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.
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, Q6 `! O2 z% h0 K4 h2 hVancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.
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The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.
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The February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.4 Y5 v- O/ F$ I5 Y- |
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"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary./ W$ b) q" G) b4 @$ n3 g: `9 f
5 u% g: {) q8 ^1 M pIndustry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.% P+ L& \0 Z5 m9 z8 b9 U
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.
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+ Y6 s I' Z/ N; U. w2 `"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.
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"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."0 k; u# _5 K8 @
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.7 o1 u2 N' t- H3 v
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"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer." A2 ^: [- H' ?7 m! d
8 K5 `* A3 z+ O1 k6 {( O"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."( ~ D3 o) Y- u6 J6 r
) p T+ M+ X4 O9 H8 y. x( cBut Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries., P; g) |0 f; d7 A2 A
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"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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