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, q/ j. w) m" Z* b8 [" R Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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4 C( L: X8 W5 b3 ^ gThu, January 11, 2007
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. B' E1 B1 H3 \5 [* F+ B/ u8 hPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007- r" f) d9 _/ D3 m8 z0 b x
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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9 S5 P N1 k, c) |, hThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 0 ^ D, x ~! |6 @
* Y$ G. ]9 e) Q B. {$ W# _2 D, oMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' ; p% [, c4 }( F1 y
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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+ J0 x8 ~ S) e' G N% o ]4 X+ _"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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+ k( u; D. M/ F7 P! x. \Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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$ p3 V3 K i, l6 J/ Z+ g. u+ Q"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." " x+ U4 n3 m {2 p1 [1 G+ v
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ( G0 k2 ^2 U& M/ i2 A5 S
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. $ h. E9 ]( _/ G a4 Y: e& P6 c( [
3 ^$ d1 y8 r& k$ N"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ! `3 M y+ l* j. d' N e4 Y
' F2 A4 t/ `; }+ a( c& H: t* XNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." , b$ w9 o" _' |; H7 {
?1 P6 t! ~" x& g& n' aExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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% R$ ~6 i" @; O6 D+ d; Y6 i# ~Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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' m- j8 x( F2 }$ d6 e; r3 H"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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1 ?% k! ?4 p( K. `4 q3 wSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 9 O1 K) C9 t! ^5 _& c/ |
7 }3 r! ~9 h- z6 B; s% O"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. : J6 o) G- W) Q5 a* ~7 E( ]3 p
" O% U" n# ?/ O, w: nLet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line3 B9 R8 H& ^# w% ~6 k$ z5 Z7 K
Next story: Building permits hit record
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