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( x3 H+ W2 K3 Q% h/ b+ ~3 FPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20074 h( R7 ~" y. n% ~; ~. k
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN5 U) q _+ J# l( [+ d; r) S5 N7 N
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/ S3 ~& ?6 w, w# F0 sThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. . F8 O4 p) |/ n) ~
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ( U: T3 L x# a7 L7 O
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. - a% r4 g! ^. G. {
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/ T' `% R5 b' ], Y"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 0 [$ T- }3 }- S; I$ ?! _
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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% H2 ^- R- S1 N$ c4 M"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." e7 d D8 z9 I, x: A! }1 h" Q/ i ~
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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! S4 k! O$ M- t; j( k) C) J0 \"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ( ?' [6 V0 s2 g; S |' d# B
$ u% e9 x! ?: Y+ {"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. $ t" }# i- A" [' I' A
1 C3 d9 b1 @ i: X+ jHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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# r) z' x$ l. c4 G( P/ ~( u"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. + o. d3 m8 r& S0 I& I
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Let the good times roll. + c2 z) D- ^* ~! f, V- ]& f* \
9 I5 s: a! T3 O0 h# k* C2 G* dPrevious story: Bottom Line/ T) ^6 {5 q4 H# p
Next story: Building permits hit record9 E" w* o! ~7 V: K# `' v
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