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4 Z$ `) u' [! K: t& K" z Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com' ?1 Z7 x1 r4 k, a) C g4 B/ k4 S
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4 L' \& {" K% a& V' Q$ w In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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/ X& R" O4 N* r1 K8 H BPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
: f' E/ x& |- d! pBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. + Y! T0 z/ y* \& k% K9 R. ?2 S
* \/ T5 ^! N+ q( L4 q0 z* i* j* vMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 4 X5 q; k! b4 p$ f! A$ u3 y4 {" X$ k
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 3 L5 P, |6 ~3 C0 D0 U) S
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' ! V5 ?: M; o. w; ]. `6 F
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9 `' J% K* K! M( Z"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 3 L1 M; S- H3 p+ ^
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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4 C# l$ Y/ D2 i& A) l"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." $ m5 s$ N/ g+ V ?% T0 d* _% D8 g4 |
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. A; J# [. S% E
0 B, O) t: X% E: X"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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2 n# H3 W. D" F0 \8 k"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. : }( ^$ q3 M( s
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 4 k1 s8 m# o) `( e
9 m. j5 y3 m# p0 j$ cHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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, k# H0 {) V9 q# M4 y; \2 UOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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- X5 t% U) R" h# ^5 b# rHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ( ?5 P. L+ Y* K% [$ ?+ l2 ^$ d+ Q
5 {- ~' m! ^7 g& o"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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6 m. |: T0 J" wSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. * U1 g$ [; T2 c0 c
/ W: |& S+ r4 U4 ~5 a# MYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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6 ?. y( c. z' U& X0 r4 F# P"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ! C- h0 y/ t7 c
/ o- t, j6 n6 k, I3 DLet the good times roll.
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5 m! {+ Z1 S1 v7 {9 yPrevious story: Bottom Line
5 t' d" w, t& _! ~# \6 K% ZNext story: Building permits hit record8 y. h6 K, [" K9 \0 R" m$ Y$ G$ j
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