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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com$ }! y8 c3 _ v2 `. P
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1 U6 l1 [0 I3 I$ |3 B2 h w In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.- n# h4 X/ i' ]
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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8 x! D2 {8 P3 B: xPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 20077 t4 C/ x1 u- y
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. - V+ q+ X! e! x
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. / T d5 k+ k8 s6 V% f; W$ W
1 w ]- B$ ~* ]; F; tDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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6 U4 a2 C5 Y0 S% f$ u( k"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 4 w/ g7 M% ]2 R" _$ g
" ~; a+ W+ n5 R8 R$ X6 sShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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9 m1 r' u& `; [+ B P6 xCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. % d& \4 S2 b! j7 U: l
. K% U, l/ v; L" u, ?& q/ U' E"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ' T. C0 E# g. m1 i0 O# z
1 O6 v6 Q5 E9 C4 }7 GStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. : w* Y0 ?% I5 U% b2 b
( m/ ]- H9 ^) `; U S* S"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. # u8 R2 K. u6 T
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. % `+ A) R: n- I& F) T6 J
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ; [7 x5 z4 o; F9 H5 G" n
8 i7 f/ g( h4 _3 }; f6 w. m0 rExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. . n) `; V4 l* u2 p( u' P" u
e! X* [& R. z8 U; m tOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 9 l( Z- L# b& I! h* x$ V6 w1 a
# ~4 v; G- I0 s- o: DHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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; O% w' Z# I) n& {' |0 QSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ) e$ E. H' E* e! P
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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0 } ]$ _6 h% D; NPrevious story: Bottom Line
; H! B* ^ d! ?Next story: Building permits hit record+ j" I0 v# Y1 T: z+ S
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