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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...# i9 p/ m0 j5 O( e8 X! R: v
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! O) }, A/ I" j% s, `* rThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very# z2 l0 m7 x6 l+ \' K1 y; X4 x
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it+ w) S; V8 @8 Y8 L6 I( m1 {9 G: z
will be going.' G# R+ l/ v2 Q5 Q- G5 ]2 _
- M: O8 D( X2 k; Y7 v* d, YIt proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.; ~4 W8 o/ H" C9 M w+ _9 i$ A
- h7 g) m' j7 E$ {The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
! v: r$ V1 b% K+ Fsophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an7 |* e9 r/ a5 V7 [1 ]5 L0 ~% O0 S
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
2 X) l0 x( n, X- _, q' g: BWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
f7 g% U, i8 o Svalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by! \) _* M% q- E% X( V/ F
how much.
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
# _8 e# ?' P5 S hOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
# P" r/ O1 H ?# v" p! o( E3 _/ I# u2 Qstrong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest$ N" M k' P5 [& |" W
findings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -9 [# p' ?4 N8 x% i! n+ Y: X
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best9 q: Z" |: A9 k a5 v
markets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact
( d. P- W2 n, J+ q$ |7 K$ yon average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the/ h; {* o9 I) v% A
market continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into7 R+ B! |1 z# w
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we
/ C( h/ A _( W' Xsaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). ; `/ D. ]0 v8 q0 E( a
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
+ ^& R G2 V/ R- hincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
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3 d8 _) G- {3 i" H5 dComparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting% C- b( b8 ^4 r
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying# F9 y; u' ~" J; w& R" T3 V
fundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that7 c2 I6 D! D% h" _# o9 H& h
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
# O5 E1 {5 Q$ z' y2 T5 s, zuntil it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all5 M$ d. ~' y% T! L T* z
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.- W2 g! q" ^- O9 @/ f
5 r9 k$ B2 {4 jBy the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
$ q( a# J2 j' k2 ~2005 to June 2006), also great news.$ B6 z! l, `: D6 Z: t
+ V# M9 O$ ]2 s( IBy comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
- u2 \" N7 [) b5 d2006 New Housing Price Index for:
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% c) @( p4 I* Y k1 r& rVancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%
) `. K% S1 {( S: K6 V2 d6 `Saskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%
1 i6 F. n9 c7 y6 v, Q3 I. {London . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%
6 I; Z$ o+ y# k1 JHamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%) `- P8 p8 f* H8 N' Y
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%1 y3 U0 j* Q9 U0 f5 n% j: N
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2) e `+ D6 u5 b/ d
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1%& N0 c9 l7 L1 L1 j7 C( y
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Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing Z( \! F5 p+ O6 d
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to% U: [2 J' w# m/ i: E. u- e
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
8 s7 C; m7 m; X) fonly across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are
5 [" J9 Z) `5 d& ]( Hincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to4 r4 l$ }- v7 E* w
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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4 ?6 a O( A9 GHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
0 [3 ?4 Z6 i; Q' c0 ?; r6 B' Cfundamentals:
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- m m( u: R1 n) B1 J1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
& l0 O0 i+ [, H- q: y4 iCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth
0 `, ?) q, j0 H# g7 Ofor Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
4 K, z3 q1 d( h5 j6 ?9 S4 qthis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.7 p/ U4 L, G7 [2 v
, e' }2 u- O2 c N2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
4 S8 q% F- J" L/ Y6 {6 {# S# N1 e' oworld. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
0 c1 k( h# d3 i' b# u* Y! p4 uthe US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see U0 M5 R: C8 c5 j9 a
that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. / L' f( W' D( C* j
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3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment
* q2 F7 }2 K9 G2 Satmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
1 B& x L& h, T% mDublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after
' I& k, J6 U' } d O' k1 ^- W5 A9 A1 UDon presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest9 ^' g. K, c( W! v A3 v; m
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again
- w0 e6 t' C8 r+ z lproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the) d- j1 N' A. i$ u6 t
political stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
/ W# S4 b# T2 A) ?beat it for long term investment.
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$ i* U. k7 p0 P6 y( N; S4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely+ }) b" {: B' ?- Y( a8 I
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job, d) F7 Q o! x
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
8 e# ]& B/ E. r# b3 C6 _"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since( }+ S6 h: M6 g8 r2 |
January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June...
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9 c7 w5 r M3 x" WStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the) P7 A3 `9 H5 B! i8 s6 R L
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the* ]+ S3 E4 ]8 r: }) ^7 U% C
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
' [( J/ L8 V6 m$ u. A/ dthe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
! e5 _( C w: }6 [repeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
1 [6 [4 c5 D M' Aits recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
, Y; t1 z; Y& I) bits trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate
. e4 q/ |8 v5 e& c) r0 [% m& X. m. Hof 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in
0 M' o0 u! u: h$ Hwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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0 @- g( q: L) m( D: L2 ^In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong" c' d4 d5 j9 u& L6 x9 l. j
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
( z B' l. Z7 Y9 d" U/ g8 I'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
) X, m4 r- L. n, F0 {% @) Cyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the1 W/ p, [6 }+ x! V# c
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the
, m( ^3 Y& U" n( @! \& G'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared
- O+ O" M$ F) Cand your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
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1 n* |- L) h( z1 ` PCapital Gains Comparison.
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial4 W+ G1 D2 X p- _5 Q3 _& L- Y
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see
% B/ U, D' V( P3 F, {how these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:
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BC . . . . . . . . 21.9%4 J" I- z% P! n1 a
AB . . . . . . . . 19.5%
3 ?# x" d4 P4 Q6 PSK . . . . . . . . 22.0% }" k. x$ n5 E! J- p7 B% G, d
MB . . . . . . . . 23.2%
. J! D- k9 O- G/ |4 gON . . . . . . . . 23.2%
. e7 S: U; ?% ^) ~) ~1 F* @5 }. vQC . . . . . . . . 24.1%2 z5 Q! y( G& ~: S
NB . . . . . . . . 23.4%. t, ^1 V. f6 C6 l& c) F
NS . . . . . . . . 24.1%
# S0 q. a R: j3 xPE . . . . . . . . 23.7%( j$ v; }5 j t7 h
NF . . . . . . . . 24.3%8 P. s! H- o; g9 d9 k+ [
W4 c: ]# S! z8 a2 w% B1 aLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term) F* @8 a" W: X7 V* r3 R! x, b
economy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of, g) c% N/ k/ t) ^
their profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.
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* E. e; G" q3 x' \3 F) sOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
& V* o) e5 ^0 F8 H! O M4 g8 }opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of
' B4 E4 s% }( @) K( u* }course, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'3 p' i }6 `, k
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion+ Z# D+ B# F0 o1 i# b
when you take action as a full REIN Member.4 e0 W3 J; J+ y9 U! V
; k% R2 D9 b. `9 ^$ YFocus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
8 M1 p; {- ?/ s- f( p! Yresults in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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