市场评论

小曲

下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结，贴出来，希望对大家有帮助。
) h2 z0 B  Y) o, |1 d. Z! t
Market Commentary
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
" g. j: u5 L. }% ?Signature Global Advisors

9 e2 G  b$ i1 D5 @& b2 r6 {
  A9 W0 h" q' a2 K8 q7 `Background remarks
0 |6 w- ]4 C2 K, J" [ Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
0 F0 x1 \( B# m7 v% L5 [as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
& n5 A) |+ C3 t! V$ Z6 L) nadjustments.
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
3 f/ S' ~; k. `2 ^safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
' r9 J, p2 }" Z8 t9 Z Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
9 a! i+ f" _: Z, D) w# L% H* V) jlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
3 C! }( U9 l5 ~5 {* K We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
) V3 C" }/ l# N$ ~- radjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
* v' ^, x0 y+ u$ C0 ] Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
3 V7 {& _' t* m2 k% j6 q3 squantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.
+ D( t. Z! g- [& G5 Q Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.

小曲

Current situation
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
( c+ E: K4 Y8 {, |9 v2 eimpose liquidation values.
7 O& a# J0 O* R/ z$ ]+ c4 X In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
! v1 X* s% c2 I2 |* pAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
/ F! m  n, v, E$ Y The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
1 U5 f5 M$ Z/ G3 z1 |
9 x! v$ D+ t# {$ M) @6 YA look at credit markets
" R! w* E3 X7 E; o* b. r Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
1 w2 m* y  Q, `: j6 w, E( Jthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1
! w9 b6 T0 P; zbillion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
$ V8 Q2 p" m! B4 c: e# ]1 j. Y. bCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
2 z: ~0 T2 J" ^' cfinding financing.
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
3 q& o" b: P% \+ \were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
) R6 u8 J0 d' B- ?. m4 Zis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
( ^5 w' c6 D& n2 Y: s, Z( vbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
7 x) }4 F  H  E$ n( f European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
today.
3 ]: H% O$ x6 b, e8 T% h6 Y3 `9 } Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
# t* p# \# b& M; r/ I9 s' Remerging markets have no problem with funding.

小曲

European Union agenda
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
the Greek default.
# h/ O% N7 P# n: s As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:
$ g) T* L& U7 ~2 {1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
+ m2 P3 Y  u( a! v6 d( Wdebt stabilization, needs government approvals.
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing
' ]0 U8 r2 r9 {  ?banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
1 j0 g( Q" ]4 H1 m) E
5 t/ J* l' K& D* M  w/ g% {Beyond Greece
 The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
but that was before Italy.
 It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
 It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.

Conclusion
 We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.

yuz967

kasnkan