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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " r/ ?1 X( Z+ H: ?& v
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
" M% ]1 y$ t. p% _% r4 _middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
# _ X c7 ^% i. `gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,. n+ v' i/ b( D
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.# G7 d" @% F3 _
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
9 q# s8 w9 |6 {said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is3 W$ t6 h& L+ }+ Z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability3 N0 W. z4 X2 M! ^0 q
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
+ ]; E5 k2 i, M' e1 Z RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* {: m3 g# o- [3 [/ V9 N6 dworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
0 ^- D- _# }, swhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
3 `* W6 X2 J5 c& p* x* o* Ssustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
/ O6 d8 k5 O+ h" p1 ^2 h The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the, _$ m& t) r' X6 T& u/ m, V
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
" ]) L. U3 ]4 W7 c1 K) }home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
0 `0 j7 u! ]- Z* q6 eAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
$ `, d @0 B8 _, k% T, ~0 U9 Nstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
6 o1 {$ ^: n* x) r2 y1 ~the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
% M' S* ] P1 ^( m# c5 R) b According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
( Z6 Y, H; G7 h0 K& Bmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in" V. ]: F, w" B) M5 g7 i K4 l. o
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at9 V* h& @, I' n6 n0 ?* C
historically depressed levels.
2 H/ [! C2 v* m Q5 o, y Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
, K9 Y5 z0 r$ N* Y6 Aof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House5 P$ h+ o& D" w# \4 n( Q0 x
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
7 C+ E% g7 |) c* M& k) Uhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
3 [- f; K2 q [6 t6 v! }( W& yenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
! t. c4 `- N \) F9 x# e8 emonths ahead," added Hogue.
- h" M* C: O: L: Z1 ? RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
% o+ A% t) H5 `7 n) P% ^' D" Xcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary( `' R8 q9 H6 U4 K0 J
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
% B+ X5 f0 l' H) y! ], y The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 e6 C8 j; W" G' Y% v! C: G
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
5 s" X" |+ y* D3 c! a( bcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only: c# u- F! {3 G$ r% \
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.( p5 Y0 D( }6 q O- N" g3 R
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
8 z, O: _% C. m# u! }8 obased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
/ D2 a. w h3 u( r9 M V6 X0 ?( Cbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
3 R( Z, u8 _4 g6 D @including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 x, S( V, ]) w7 J
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
% \4 A2 Q4 f c* L- B* qFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership7 u4 m" s8 {* e0 ~% k' k
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
" K; F9 T& P9 @: h& ~ |per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ u& M1 h! m6 ~/ P
4 ^8 B) G0 ~2 d/ ~5 r. Z <<* v& w* \ ~) S; e. J6 M4 L
Highlights from across Canada:
6 Z1 [" D7 O# A# \$ D# i1 p
7 H; \5 o& s7 u* d0 ]2 b( | - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has: c8 z7 M: m) D" \: E0 k) L. z
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
7 q ^/ N* ^4 ?7 G8 H8 c& b home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
2 ^' ?4 O0 O* h( l- Y4 m: B" M1 [6 n( G( ~ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track% A) U5 `5 n; N1 ? ~1 A1 {
since about the middle of 2007.
. v8 g9 Q5 |- M# ^8 \# X9 x; Z - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the: S, d. k [' H0 Y! z" Q) b
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
) K6 e: [2 B- n: H" }9 [ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
- N' [( u$ c" e0 u8 Z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ X3 _" R4 o3 ^3 H poor affordability levels.
# y1 L+ r" b& K, r: y; x. C5 K - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the6 y5 p: m& z7 P% Y0 D( d0 a
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
8 Q. H" }& [1 u, m5 z0 x: E' E* A prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly." C" t0 q! g- h! E
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
% ~( Z- Q2 y9 P8 g! ]" h- ^ minimize any downside risks.$ T* M5 z2 ]: N3 L ]
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
d6 b8 V M) I" K conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
% K) g8 v! |, i1 ]! H+ ]( k; l unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early) O ?9 X( C# Q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
5 ~ Q- q# P3 y/ b being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
8 t( q, Z2 O1 p: W! J - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
7 L1 _4 k. |" m. K& } Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! d9 d- K4 T0 D) t. V4 F
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up' Z( L; i& H9 x
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
L/ z8 U" ~; ], e- k9 P ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
" @% b0 P/ J9 v5 P! b, k modestly in recent years.' o! q0 Y4 G/ P' ~8 o
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
. W/ W& {3 Z# Q) G J4 T# j, J general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% U6 m$ P# N' J8 X/ J3 f; x
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward' a6 M+ Y- q; e9 \0 Q, r$ W* n. o
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
: N/ |% D) v7 m9 l9 A following two years of deterioration.' t( X& d7 J3 e( w
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