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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 7 r2 y3 T/ |8 I
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
g% i) {! [8 ~5 A2 b# T+ _middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
6 d" N6 U3 t1 |6 Dgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
( Q/ m* c( Q7 f8 r5 f3 E8 S3 taccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) d! ~# Z6 z4 A$ ^
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"+ J9 Z! x; t. ]+ T' O
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is$ Q4 o ^# c: G% h
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
7 i# {5 N5 M3 Y: D8 j" _5 Xmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
# z# X7 Y" }9 L% q RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
_5 y* `4 v2 Hworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
@0 x+ h% @. c9 J2 P' @( Q- Cwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 A% Q: ?+ \0 E% Z' e
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.4 K" l' _1 Y+ ]. A
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( O5 g% a! a8 m. t) ?0 j, g7 m- e0 Mproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
5 v" r+ j5 G! r7 ahome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
- K8 P" |; t$ g {3 \1 @, AAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the, s" l& m( A- E+ C+ S+ w+ w
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and* U$ K6 @$ L! y/ X
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
, ^+ i5 S' l' t1 z& m: s According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets) D: F8 |# J0 h" t5 {* q+ Z
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 X6 i) g6 Z8 l* ~' E. F
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at, k& s; ], T p, e5 q
historically depressed levels.! S5 `3 g4 w9 s, O; o3 w2 f" j
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost4 ]# b# x( j7 k& s7 D5 F) M0 Y% H: C
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
# {4 F' K3 t( ]& M. _6 f# Eprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the7 Z# x( b7 I. w
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
2 v2 n/ H& f, l8 ~% aenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
5 Y E' O% H% [) d$ `: s2 m% L" P; Rmonths ahead," added Hogue.
+ l2 g2 Z4 Q* Z7 ] RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest. _6 u6 C; v* m" m1 @' |" \; {
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary* z- s6 \7 `$ _. W: l4 \
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
9 }' u* T+ F0 j! k4 h The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
' T7 c- G( P3 l* k2 {1 Ua broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these2 k7 E7 N& y4 b7 F1 j6 j5 c. @9 {( v) n
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
) V8 u0 T/ \0 Q) _8 jtakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.& b2 s, Z5 X8 Y# n0 P- j
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
4 J) t/ W9 J3 m- D6 i# L7 kbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property) p6 j7 ], X/ l& |$ K: r
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
0 A$ V9 T$ n8 d0 O P6 Hincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard2 l/ r! g1 T5 C7 m5 v
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. P; N! h5 b9 ]- ~) Q+ j
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 w- [& X9 _1 n' jcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
+ r7 E: u) w9 U, R$ Vper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.6 p. R' q( e6 S' I
, @, b8 ]( n" I+ D c4 `
<<
1 P+ u* B1 g0 b) f- Q1 \ Highlights from across Canada:: X1 f' h0 o( C' o; X
4 b: f" ~; o4 u4 h6 x! M N8 P - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has0 X: b0 o/ m/ k# s
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing. m% I! G7 h/ z' |/ l" s* O
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound* K* g* {: O) ?, W
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
4 ]3 {, ~+ v t+ d& j3 P b7 f since about the middle of 2007.
5 y8 _" r5 S2 X7 _* z" B0 H [ - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
( P" O6 `7 l" l# J: T4 n, f frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to5 ]5 J/ p) E1 Y4 ^
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still; v6 w; j( b/ ^4 |4 u
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely+ Q, }& z4 }8 H+ k; P1 r: R
poor affordability levels.
F1 t% a. J: _/ b/ t: N9 @/ s - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ B/ T# ?3 g; O2 ] vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
[+ n9 a g" d+ V' o( Y" Y prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.6 W/ n' P: U5 t
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
# ]. H8 g& j5 V) \$ f minimize any downside risks.4 R$ E5 O1 z" f# ^& N2 Z* i
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market# Z9 I: @% u' T, ^% K) }5 U$ P
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is: |! p* |( ?) a
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
6 e5 Z+ @ J- F1 L 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
2 N# V. E6 `3 b% B5 F7 w3 I being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
# m V. b- @2 ^3 A, q: X - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
% h- H ?5 H: u- V, H Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 T+ j+ e ]3 A, s
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
1 D* J9 _+ U( ?( Z% K+ | reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
8 J2 ~5 c0 O+ w; Y ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
0 a9 i9 n" Q) K modestly in recent years.! I7 n( p+ F6 _' B- D0 ?6 y
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, h2 v4 @9 S7 K5 M; _
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% c% `7 a) Z# K5 P4 g( H8 |
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
* I* b7 ~' T& w/ ~/ N price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 ^7 Q, K$ a5 s2 I following two years of deterioration.
4 l. d' A; h# H+ O, v6 l >> |
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