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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 0 {: ~5 E% l, f, [0 w
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the5 M, i8 Q, I, F' x
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
! h. \, O k1 h& X- I% h- `gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,1 u) t8 U* C' u2 a
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
' V4 A+ V( s4 S "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"- l0 x8 ~" L& f3 u9 ]+ u( ?
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
0 f) R/ \& n4 b: \: d8 cimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability5 A4 n+ W! x. O) _# G4 i1 q
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
6 v5 D4 _4 K: r# J4 U9 ` RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ y) ?: e9 r: l
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
' T4 W. `9 R! d E* dwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, V5 R" I* x* ^6 ?( bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., Y1 q" ^8 K9 p: H
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
2 w( w- E/ J* X2 ^5 Q3 ?; ]proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a" G8 ~9 R2 Q. r* V6 L" D! f
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
: c: _% o) D+ T2 B$ q0 A7 @( dAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the& Y, |7 q6 y. F$ H- F
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
/ m- I- S4 ^" r1 ?9 P2 O nthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.6 K [! w \) B, ?
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
' A; W5 ~# p' S+ Z4 [- cmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in, s& R% c/ o0 x
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
& t' L' S" Q" Q+ ^2 R9 \historically depressed levels.
/ K* x& n& V+ e& p* C: P Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost+ F8 \+ o) y1 L5 C
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
6 b! ~/ e5 o2 g7 Z9 Fprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
0 {; V6 Q, ?6 N- Fhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
, W( b( }- w* P: x$ Z# Kenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
- U* Q5 z7 g/ L- N& J/ x5 Dmonths ahead," added Hogue.
9 o# s+ s/ |- D/ N RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
9 d- B( v$ B& F1 w1 L5 k8 S" Dcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
9 G; A$ ~( m$ F) Q42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.9 v R* }$ I9 x5 h$ q( _
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for$ r" n0 O3 M/ `4 W2 o
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
$ P8 O0 E" s8 N& y; Y4 Xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
3 `! e4 B& S. v) {4 _* d; Q* otakes mortgage payments relative to income into account./ k" f0 M( M9 ?9 ?$ s/ D
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
% P5 ^1 k: P, wbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
# }3 v5 G6 c& G J$ D& Pbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented" c! h" l- P. X3 \$ q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: \: y" e0 P$ Z7 O6 D9 k0 \, i
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
+ ?! V7 x" c' ?" N1 _( v6 g4 GFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership/ f( R3 _* I& i9 A6 w
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50, ?% q0 j8 P" P1 e; Z
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income./ _5 z/ A4 |) W
& d c9 p* S; M* h* d4 e- Q <<7 A6 T# D) H$ p5 l7 G) U
Highlights from across Canada:: b# ^3 w% T7 S. | p- l( O
5 E% ~2 s2 g# {. M' n: ]
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has/ G+ ]+ A3 v: k) N- s, X
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing! J# M; _/ F' X5 _/ `% V9 ^
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound$ Y. [! `( ?2 e6 h0 h. U
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
) C3 V8 Z0 n' s since about the middle of 2007.
; Q( e! a2 A; v/ T - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
& c3 N. f/ ~$ m) V. W6 _' B9 G: X- _ frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
; g! {! P3 `7 Y2 @ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still) Q2 H- w' r% _% h4 o
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
, d; b$ \4 T- u G: n& B& ^( q; n poor affordability levels.1 p. `' a4 ?/ }& A- Z
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the& o) d/ A1 O# s. k7 ?
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
7 r$ Y( o$ _1 }+ [: o. _! C# b prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
, w& c2 c7 r: f' A% U4 Z Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
& z6 u2 l' k5 T minimize any downside risks.3 w6 Z; I5 n5 B
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
8 _2 ^7 z! D4 A8 S, m/ f" M conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is( X, @4 b6 p( ?2 Q; U4 l' E, e t/ j
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
0 T' U6 J- S2 D, X; ]$ [8 W 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
9 T* j+ g2 }* t! V) v being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.) ?6 x8 K5 n7 }9 l/ z" u
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in. H. o0 | U" ^3 K) W5 p
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
6 a* ~& ~1 B; J6 |2 y2 H8 @ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, ?9 O8 Q2 `$ p4 @% x0 O
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
* Z9 o1 V8 @/ e y* D6 ] ~ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only6 T: U3 A" F- T) a9 y* l4 d
modestly in recent years., U: O8 f9 V2 y4 g7 M
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the7 b. A: b7 T% @3 H( w5 d
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot7 o% ]4 L/ A/ X/ q! V. U
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
( t, B0 R, s9 u8 L4 O4 F' v price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) R) y4 q' V9 r& k, `8 j) I0 R) ]
following two years of deterioration.
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