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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC " t% [% F3 a- X, a' d! o
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
" v6 k1 k" [2 b3 Y" Y, fmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive4 R% u* O4 L$ O2 |
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
^/ J( B S3 Z- g: V) C- Faccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.; |* t/ O+ M4 X3 j. i1 n$ r/ t
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
( p& x l" \0 F$ v: Nsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
1 s2 _: k; v- k( himproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability$ \; y/ U: l2 ^! B
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 q. C* G1 {! K4 W
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is* t, R% d* k! D) {* L2 i* ^
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
6 r3 H% l7 \# X; A# `which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
; Q, m5 N7 K1 m5 Jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
8 n" B5 g) g6 |) ~ d4 { The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% t! a+ F6 ? p1 eproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a4 T/ t \: u' }& V8 i1 t" I
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
; K( a" N+ c. }5 M% h( m) bAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
/ H1 C$ J: I, h2 Cstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
$ o. w! S$ |- _4 O, |9 ^ ethe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
- N# f8 W, v/ c& i6 B. B According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
) e# l( K7 A6 e5 ^/ q$ Kmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in B4 L3 p/ a2 n( u8 \8 c/ e
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 Z C7 b7 s- S) s- _historically depressed levels.
! J8 y2 s% F6 V* s$ b" p Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
& M) L7 d" s$ Q9 [' }: y2 g3 bof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House! R, N7 v3 p( ]. U, s/ M
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the+ H. H: ~4 v5 K# z! B) | P
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
+ F ^7 b" z& b$ P6 b0 N5 ~; i8 Uenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the: [& o8 q# d, W
months ahead," added Hogue.( z# g6 q( G/ @8 Z
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest% L- d& E+ L2 [! M$ j% r& z" `
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary" q; _0 D o1 G1 r' w1 K! ~3 B
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
) A# i# F4 F! n1 I9 {* ? The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
( @2 F1 z0 F1 N( C9 }a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these' l9 ^; K* K% w
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
: W5 s; N6 o5 L- p2 ~takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
( K5 w- D) r* M" j! p, x The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
8 d! q4 s/ P ]0 ?based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& c" k9 Q+ x* e8 Z2 z$ V
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented. f6 E' w+ G1 `
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( l ?* }+ ~5 o- X6 d: T
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.: L1 Z# E1 f- o7 [' b" P
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
) i5 j0 z, E( Y: i3 Ucosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 506 {/ h; U* S# W; `* @. z
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.0 O& D+ {( V6 u8 I- ~) W
4 o d& k2 M# a# |& S <<
3 b- ]/ W* u2 @. `$ h( ]: C; ? Highlights from across Canada:* }, \& x* C$ ~# y/ u
' a. y4 l$ O+ R. d& ]& z - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has1 X$ _5 |# Z. s$ s$ W
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing M( w+ k: H. d; t$ R
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound) p* }/ l, e# d
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track+ S/ D) a, y, ?& P, _0 O+ B% D
since about the middle of 2007.( ^: u0 M2 Q# y/ M# C! B7 U) M- E& k
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
. v* {, b' V9 x j# o; n frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to9 k, O6 ]' X- C3 T9 ~
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
" \. f$ o8 k5 @+ [5 G largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely- x, O/ m! `" u
poor affordability levels.! ]5 U- t o* _- D- k
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
4 [% Z- j, [. v9 [8 ^% ] vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and5 C! O- o B' `6 Y
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.8 m% @ \* E7 @+ @/ ^, E
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! k/ ~$ @2 n" @ minimize any downside risks.
) G8 {- j2 x7 H# X c6 [% g - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market p* B) Z; u% g, j' \3 W
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ a" I% V" o; y/ [
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early( R( e5 J" h5 D7 O* ]0 D
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly5 _: o J& r, C7 n1 {: o" L0 R
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
5 G& O o3 y& x: S - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in5 }5 v5 B( n2 Z N- ~. A: ?
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus: Q7 T/ E: w. H9 G6 b
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up8 w7 t0 y) R# Z- r" J; d7 m
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 E) t- g3 [4 m8 O7 [+ k; n9 [" ^! a ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only3 Z, s! r& A4 {9 B
modestly in recent years.* E% i2 N0 q O: b' n
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the/ d6 q0 Z2 G$ w: s
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot; Q m; D/ _4 Y! h& }, h
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" e! E7 p! S8 N4 v5 a' [* O
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
" r# J$ y" q$ `* v, z, B following two years of deterioration./ b9 @- \' \% {+ _* v
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