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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 3 i" v. u6 j4 N
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
2 k) ]* D% l2 S# H- ~middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& r- F* D9 b5 t+ \3 p) |) z
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
$ H8 G" N9 }0 [$ K+ C' Jaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
5 x! T2 s- R* ~: O( e2 }9 ^ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"7 W$ K7 H1 _' y; L
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is& n5 h# C/ Z- L/ i- ~" _$ X* N/ C
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability7 f! o/ I% {2 I& c" b
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
2 W. W$ @& L" |' b4 B/ } RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ ~1 }/ `2 U3 b8 P k& n
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,- E1 o+ ~6 b: F7 t# {& |
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! Q6 K4 B) |/ B. J7 csustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. l- R' b8 _9 O" z; _& W8 o e The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the5 v: E3 `( |4 m; l
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
2 Z: f& T7 Z; Dhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.% ~/ e4 ~# \4 B/ N3 d
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
7 Z9 G. V& X$ [9 g) X3 \/ u' K2 F( bstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and1 {1 {% q6 X9 a
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
/ }' Y, j/ K' O' o* b. ] According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets6 X; i0 p) x4 `$ ~- t
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
' }6 w$ O0 ]3 q0 fthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at% E* d( A- l1 l1 j' h- C+ o
historically depressed levels.. s- _: s; ]8 U2 N$ `
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost5 v; s8 g/ I( l3 a
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House. D3 D' J h4 I" g7 |6 `
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the( O: @* |' d6 X: z. E/ `
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This# t: P/ t: O- V
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% m3 j9 O" S% h0 f
months ahead," added Hogue.
6 ?% H$ X* x7 T. x! D& O RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest0 I( ?4 h$ _/ I! w
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary! z1 i! O2 {9 C# J
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
& L/ `# E) ^7 d' e: y+ U6 A( u8 a The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
' r$ Y3 l" n, A! W- Ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these9 M# j4 `- `; q/ d8 ~$ V) ]
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only b: p/ E/ e7 U& S8 y. ~. T/ K
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
7 x" t% m& i1 k* L# q The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is1 B5 S: q+ Z9 v5 r2 }) u: v1 h
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
" [. W1 v& ]5 n9 \9 r" bbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
" H& Z V& L. ^: n6 x, lincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard. \ N* ]7 n, o8 }: Y, C: P3 c
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 q+ p9 Q+ y4 G2 B
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership- ^3 f* V' ]6 P+ n, R9 D
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
5 s' b5 ]% S# `# D. X6 H+ Uper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.0 ]! ^3 q9 ?8 l- W8 I2 z8 b
/ E; H% `, d8 ]& X1 c <<
# u2 U; a1 W& o$ D8 f Highlights from across Canada:
Q; T) h. {& ]- H# [1 g
+ J: j* o4 |* F# N* ^+ D6 ~! d - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
8 J! C% z4 g X$ c; J intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing; I) z; j6 O! N1 W3 D
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound% |% f% X2 F7 `( }/ J
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track/ M G3 ? Q' I( l, F
since about the middle of 2007.
1 V9 L# O9 T; ^# q( r5 a/ r - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& p% |2 L& t: j& {/ k- i
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to* [. P# p3 O% E' ^
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still! W' c- o( B2 |9 @
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely z; Y- @7 S: \$ V: f6 Z
poor affordability levels.* J. c2 Y+ X8 n, s
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% a# k0 Y, L* z/ s8 f vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 m7 `6 `8 h+ }# Q
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
" G4 A* r5 g) H, ^& R5 G Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to+ i0 {1 B$ J6 p" _. @) W2 n$ N4 |
minimize any downside risks.$ G+ N5 p/ L8 N* c# `/ l
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
& H: A7 A1 k1 B/ W conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is9 Y0 ?/ Q. m# T7 n5 l8 R9 }; o1 L
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
9 w% S' H8 k5 w- L 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly$ @/ ?) |) p% b% [7 X" p: |
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
9 L5 q; ^6 g$ e7 U - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in7 ]! y* {/ q$ U) }
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus n L. h# T- a# J. U
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
# m2 W' O. ^9 _) Y- p! E8 h4 u reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be" k6 q$ ]7 N% U4 V" }4 r( b
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only% l: X. Z( s3 j4 U- ` ^
modestly in recent years.
1 J; S" W. b: X9 a6 f - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the6 K, [ {: L$ n2 `
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot! U+ q. Z; B1 |" e* ~6 k! i
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
$ `3 i- F5 e" x% w V' N& C2 T, b price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability7 H$ @+ P; M" Q6 H8 S5 H5 _$ ~
following two years of deterioration.. j; Y& l( r8 A" A4 k
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