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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta) {$ e1 f% I7 T2 S) U
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its
- @; t+ r3 H; u3 b5 e2 G8 D) gboom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
* s5 l7 N3 Y6 care cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to
8 C$ O/ a6 L6 k3 L# @. U2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
8 d" z3 J5 K/ xformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
$ _" f9 I+ ~0 Z# v" d" Nfrom their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
+ b9 \: |% d" ?) athe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 b4 g$ }( E4 h
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
" N! D( J6 r! u0 f$ v" Gpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
$ S$ n( x6 y9 g* Y' Gprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined4 u: Q2 r: S4 |/ s: M9 c A' W8 i0 B
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year7 B, _' v. i" U& x. B. Q9 _, H9 y8 U
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
4 d' v0 p7 n1 _3 r* _year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,8 a8 w0 U% K4 m ^4 P8 U! B8 Y9 s% w
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around) |- E u3 _0 X, {
30,000 new households will form in the province during5 c4 X# Y& y! P5 [
2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
- J# r" }! M1 W; {* fEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s, `+ o( @6 y% f; k2 n5 d
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%2 M3 T! N l( Z' P% k7 a7 `
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta: X5 w0 Y$ |7 B% ~
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
* q, n* A$ T2 _2 _) Q% Ehouseholds, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
: a5 I& E, ~5 |/ {during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 R7 D$ e3 j/ dsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
0 I# K2 f, M4 B' J# F+ F+ hclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is4 J. p- [9 `# e% ~
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
1 k- M- x4 S) d$ B% |1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
# h1 {6 L9 `/ \2 i9 P' M% S, ^sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& O) l) N2 ? S0 P5 ^9 A
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ n0 b1 {2 s0 @$ ^' btwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
7 G% m9 G8 D1 f8 j6 Munsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,7474 w6 w3 C: q8 u+ o) } ?- A! _( F( S
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest# b" O! N& \. g0 L9 S* Q
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the) |0 i6 a: N2 K9 O
resale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s% e8 L4 R, l E8 v% Y- |
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories$ Y7 a: r& B/ Y$ w" V$ l" y) Z& a7 }
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled
+ f3 l! s8 |' g3 c; R3 Y% t# Hrapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.; z2 f$ q/ q! a8 |
The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s C; }1 f$ u: p, O. t
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
& Q' _/ h9 I1 @. EAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
) H6 Q+ [; V5 ?housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced9 l/ t1 @* x2 i! N+ M
relative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale) {- U7 q* a$ [" g4 E
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even9 m$ K8 ?% X s6 D' K
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
0 o% G* }. i8 Q& R- {on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 c6 z0 }7 p, Q Q6 W" k. [, s# Q
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average+ O9 N6 ^9 i% t1 H- T, N3 B
resale price in February is evidence that past prices6 ]3 h, g& B/ X: ~; ?6 t: L. K) _/ x
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
( B" h: L# Q) khomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’' v1 b$ }3 ?6 S& O2 t- T( B
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,& z& z& z- x* M) G4 X# Q
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%" M [ b1 [- _9 f f
leg down over 2009.; r: u: i% t/ ~% k- J9 N
: X4 V0 b$ L* c+ L/ G+ v7 n[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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