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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.
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) _) b/ C2 B1 A8 M3 sTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak. ) @5 u- c+ N- K" |  g
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding. 1 k. W' `% w- _7 @7 s8 L" E- }0 G

0 K' Z6 V  C7 V2 ]' M7 ?1 g0 w"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said. * a2 N- t) C1 f2 w; k4 Z' G
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Now, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
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TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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+ t1 ?5 O5 L" R  `"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.: G; Q6 e$ N- j# O. W5 ~

, c. W" f2 G" N4 m: X( e2 ~" _Meanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. ; ?9 L0 h: T+ G$ ]! I
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http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层

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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,
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" G9 w$ n' G/ j; a[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。
5 j' _; n: t/ T' f, j# n% e 再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。! q+ z2 H9 E5 Y( r
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 ; V1 U( [( b9 w. n8 Y
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...
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很多人都回学校深造去了2 b0 k  P2 H5 d0 }
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta7 e" |0 Q' b  g6 C
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its; K& L3 x" p3 p# N; y1 N
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton6 t' b. ~2 c! o  y+ ?4 c+ a5 g
are cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to- L  I- `+ F% n' A/ N) W# Z# e. ^. A
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household( f$ o# W' y' e4 R  N) ]# e2 ^
formation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided
2 b6 g+ ~+ z- S# @( k6 H3 [from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
" X% r8 g3 r; Y! z7 r# ]the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and7 T2 P) S5 \! i8 S1 R# E8 X
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
, z  B, J5 ?/ Y7 M. e3 xpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
7 K5 ~6 {0 x  m9 J1 Zprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined3 f! h+ U. d9 L0 h
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year2 H( ~9 _3 f  ~+ C  k
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this7 a' Q( h" e3 ]. V- s* @" a
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
0 e' ]% v* u6 C" p2 B% p% `homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around4 k6 r, _5 N$ p( u6 s. v6 {, l7 G
30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 w: v2 j1 ^# G  m7 N$ u2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.- B2 S: f) e0 J; r
Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
6 ]6 X6 H% Q1 n7 ~- k" l1 ohomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%7 u: m; `1 H. o& R6 S) q
during the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta* {4 X1 \1 j( a- @2 e9 r- m6 S
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new9 s" W  f- W2 n0 v9 ~1 q& t5 O& V
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals+ G7 P5 K( P0 B1 v* d; j) p" c
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
  W/ |1 A- ?' q3 b& n9 Jsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
$ F  m. p. b! g& Qclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is! h' x# U0 n2 ^0 R- P' p
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
6 V# W7 I0 y( F2 a, }! w% V; M1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a6 B* z- f9 {) {$ d$ R* ]' H
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive5 r7 x! x, d& H/ P
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in& Y# S0 e% L8 n; x1 r
two decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
9 o& g" j9 ^& j5 V9 r; K+ y" _2 v$ Bunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747
9 v5 H  c3 A- F. d/ xunsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest" Z" r- X. h8 n$ y
recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
# p5 F7 a& G) V3 nresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s5 |' X; ?" |" b) Z2 R; B# G1 X
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories, R6 j" E8 V) L& D1 P7 ?( s+ Q& m
of new singles, and, with demand having cooled. z& T" C4 j& L& T
rapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
$ K+ I8 L$ t9 T, Z' {+ E5 o" MThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s; @3 o% ~5 W" I% _
boom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
6 b6 l* x$ N  W% c$ N5 oAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan
: N2 @1 I6 A' n6 l4 g+ v* Lhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
% Y/ D" {# y4 e3 X0 m" R0 grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 h' `, I4 R# E- Z! D3 M  ]% D
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even! ~0 p+ n' `5 X8 g# {) \+ p, Q
though Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners. [0 C# w5 t; s& G, [9 ?3 g/ h
on average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.1 k9 o8 i. b" H
The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average* T# c2 b1 F8 Z
resale price in February is evidence that past prices
0 ^7 e8 l; Z. Mexceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove  V' p5 b% H* I2 z& W1 R% j! ?" d
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’: A& z: k" N4 Y9 `5 \
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,% U; E' [# d; \6 Z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%4 v6 K) f) f) `
leg down over 2009.1 O  [  [  J& ]( r

) f3 I/ S' Y0 }' m[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
; s( @# {; n( s. N4 T- q2 vAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:
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[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
6 z/ v; p3 e. b翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments
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4 ~& p, e" J( D) @4 o/ K[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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